Billboard Hot 100 Predictions: 05/07/2016

[ry4n]

I think Mike is on to something. These predictions are essentially a game to see who's best at predicting anyway, so why not make it an actual game in the games forum? Make a thread there, and each week, anyone who wants to post a prediction can do so by a pre-determined deadline, and then when the Hot 100 is posted, someone can tally up all the points to see who won that week.

[Dylan :)]

I can't remember what the Hot 100 Thread was like a year ago and I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I still feel the main problem with it at the moment is that it has become essentially a conversation between 3/4 people and the exact same thing is being said every day. How many times has "ITAPII for top 5", " 7 Years for #1" and "Work sucks" been said? I can remember predictions being made last year by MarkG a lot and it was never a problem. It isn't an issue of getting new threads, people just need to use PM. Other members complaining (which I will admit I have been a part of) adds to the problem also and it all just becomes one big mess.

[Az Paynter]

Apr 24, 2016 3:15:03 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

I can't remember what the Hot 100 Thread was like a year ago and I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I still feel the main problem with it at the moment is that it has become essentially a conversation between 3/4 people and the exact same thing is being said every day. How many times has "ITAPII for top 5", " 7 Years for #1" and "Work sucks" been said? I can remember predictions being made last year by MarkG a lot and it was never a problem. It isn't an issue of getting new threads, people just need to use PM. Other members complaining (which I will admit I have been a part of) adds to the problem also and it all just becomes one big mess.

This has hit the nail on the head right here. I can't tell you how annoying it is to week-in-week-out see the same few people bitch and moan about how the charts aren't exactly the way they want them to be.

Like, excuse you. '7 Years' isn't going to go #1 just because you want it to. 'Work' is not going to give up #1 just because you want it to. 'I Took A Pill' isn't going to hit top 5 because you want it to. You don't control the factors, you don't get to decide that the chart is wrong or messed up or broken just because the chart might not be to your liking. And you can be as butthurt as you want over that, nobody can stop you - but take it elsewhere.

[pnobelysk]

Apr 23, 2016 23:06:39 GMT -5 emperortigerstar said:

Apr 23, 2016 22:16:43 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

I think we'll see a couple on Tuesday... and then several on the following week's chart.  I think it may end up being the best post-death showing on the H100 yet when all is said and done.

Yeah. The record in terms of peak to beat is Whitney Houston who had "I Will Always Love You" rechart as high as 3.
In terms of number of singles the only artist who ever has a chance of getting a ton as Prince probably will is Paul McCartney when he dies. Let's just hope Paul doesn't die in 2016 I can't take much more.

Hopefully she's nowhere near leaving us , but I'd predict Madonna would also have a similar impact

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Out of curiosity, why do predictions need to be made several times a day? Why don't we actually have a weekly contest? That could be fun for everyone!

[Gary]

By the looks of this thread, It is clear a "predictions only" thread isn't going to happen. As this thread contains other discussion.


Call this a failed experiment --- next?

[lyhom]

ngl at this point I'd be glad if we just ditched any hot 100 conversation in general until the actual charts come out

[Future Captain]

Apr 24, 2016 9:10:49 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

Out of curiosity, why do predictions need to be made several times a day? Why don't we actually have a weekly contest? That could be fun for everyone!

Actually, I'm currently preparing to make an actual weekly competition for this. Still having some trouble deciding how the scoring will be done.


Anybody interested to help?

[ry4n]

Apr 24, 2016 9:27:05 GMT -5 Future Captain said:

Apr 24, 2016 9:10:49 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

Out of curiosity, why do predictions need to be made several times a day? Why don't we actually have a weekly contest? That could be fun for everyone!

Actually, I'm currently preparing to make an actual weekly competition for this. Still having some trouble deciding how the scoring will be done.


Anybody interested to help?

for each song:
0 positions off = 0 points
1 position off = 1 point
2 positions off = 2 points
3 positions off = 3 points
didn't put the song in their list = ?? points
etc

lowest cumulative points wins

[Az Paynter]

^ If you're gonna go that route, I think you should base it only on the songs included in the prediction. That's the way it works in the top 10 prediction games/threads in the pop forum. If a song makes top 10 that isn't in someone's prediction, there's no effect on that person's score. The effect comes from the song they predicted top 10 that didn't make the top 10.

I think awarding points/penalizing people based on songs they didn't include in their predictions could throw off the balance.

[Future Captain]

Apr 24, 2016 9:57:53 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

^ If you're gonna go that route, I think you should base it only on the songs included in the prediction. That's the way it works in the top 10 prediction games/threads in the pop forum. If a song makes top 10 that isn't in someone's prediction, there's no effect on that person's score. The effect comes from the song they predicted top 10 that didn't make the top 10.

I think awarding points/penalizing people based on songs they didn't include in their predictions could throw off the balance.

My system is actually to give the players the songs that they have to give their prediction to, to avoid that issue. Do twelve songs a week (The previous top 10 + 2 songs that might have a chance at making top 10/major releases) sounds good?

[ry4n]

Yes you're right, I was thinking the wrong way around. They would be penalized if their song didn't make the Hot 100 at all. Which would be pretty rare unless you're trolling.

Edit: that was directed at Az

[MTSChart21]

I will predict songs 1-30 but I only want the top 10 to count since most people only predict the top 10

[Dylan :)]

This actually sounds like a fun game! Excited for it to start lol.

[Deleted]

What's the deadline, Monday mornings?

[Dylan :)]

Apr 24, 2016 11:01:37 GMT -5 awesomecharts said:

What's the deadline, Monday mornings?

Monday 8am GMT+0? 

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Would we do deadline to be Tuesday like with the pop radio chart predictions? Otherwise we pretty well have all the information come Monday morning that we know the chart before it gets posted in most cases.

[ry4n]

Sometime before the tracking week ends would be ideal, since things can still be up in the air. I agree it gets a bit too easy once the Spotify weekly data and Kworb's sales estimates are posted.

[Dylan :)]

Okay, so for example, the top 10 to be released tomorrow, its deadline would've been last Friday morning at 8am GMT+0 (3am EST)

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

I'd say Wednesday sometime? That way there's time after the full hot 100 is released to use it as a reference point and everyone is on the same page.

[Future Captain]

I'm thinking Wednesday as well. That way, it will be more fun and unpredictable.

[josh]

Apr 24, 2016 3:15:03 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

I can't remember what the Hot 100 Thread was like a year ago and I'm too lazy to go back and check, but I still feel the main problem with it at the moment is that it has become essentially a conversation between 3/4 people and the exact same thing is being said every day. How many times has "ITAPII for top 5", " 7 Years for #1" and "Work sucks" been said? I can remember predictions being made last year by MarkG a lot and it was never a problem. It isn't an issue of getting new threads, people just need to use PM. Other members complaining (which I will admit I have been a part of) adds to the problem also and it all just becomes one big mess.

"UPTOWN FUNK TO BREAK WBT'S RECORD PLZZZZZ"

"SEE YOU AGAIN SUCKS I HATE IT IT'S JUST USING PAUL WALKER'S DEATH TO MAKE MONEY"

"UPTOWN FUNK BEST SONG EVER"

"NO, UPTOWN FUNK SUCKS I HATE BRUNO"

"SEE YOU AGAIN IS SO GOOD"

"NO I HATE YOU YOU'RE WRONG"

It was basically just like it is now.

[Gary]

I like the idea of making it an organized contest separate from the Hot 100 threads.

Making predictions has never been a problem, predictions have been a part of this thread for years. The problem has been: One person makes a prediction and 3 or 4 people argue over it. So those three or four people come up with their own predictions and the group argues over those.

Wash - rinse - repeat --- The cycle repeats when the same group "tweaks" the predictions and the cycle starts again

[Ravi]

Really don't see what the fuss is all about..... people say now the Hot 100 threads are becoming too long.... I view it the other way.... earlier they were *dead* and now they are more alive. I don't know about others but I like to read other people's insights/opinions/predictions/freakouts. 10-12 pages in a week surely isn't "too long"?

[Glove Slap]

There's a difference between people stating and sharing opinions and a constant stream of one liners that would be better suited for a PM.

Nobody is complaining over opinions being shared, it's the annoying way they're being constantly done by the same 4 or so people.

[Ravi]

Apr 24, 2016 13:53:29 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

There's a difference between people stating and sharing opinions and a constant stream of one liners that would be better suited for a PM.

Nobody is complaining over opinions being shared, it's the annoying way they're being constantly done by the same 4 or so people.

hmmmmm......maybe more people need to be active??? :)

That said, isn't there a ignore feature on this forum? Users can put those 4 people on ignore if they irk them so much.... that way they get to see a concise sane thread?

[Glove Slap]

Apr 24, 2016 13:59:37 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Apr 24, 2016 13:53:29 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

There's a difference between people stating and sharing opinions and a constant stream of one liners that would be better suited for a PM.

Nobody is complaining over opinions being shared, it's the annoying way they're being constantly done by the same 4 or so people.

hmmmmm......maybe more people need to be active??? :)

That said, isn't there a ignore feature on this forum? Users can put those 4 people on ignore if they irk them so much.... that way they get to see a concise sane thread?

Page after page of walls of hidden posts isn't what I'd define as "a concise sane thread".

And the point about more people being active is really hurt by the PM-esque one line/freakout way of the conversations. It really turns some off participating in anyway when all you see is infantile histrionics.

[Ravi]

Apr 24, 2016 14:11:16 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

Apr 24, 2016 13:59:37 GMT -5 Ravi said:

hmmmmm......maybe more people need to be active??? :)

That said, isn't there a ignore feature on this forum? Users can put those 4 people on ignore if they irk them so much.... that way they get to see a concise sane thread?

Page after page of walls of hidden posts isn't what I'd define as "a concise sane thread".

And the point about more people being active is really hurt by the PM-esque one line/freakout way of the conversations. It really turns some off participating in anyway when all you see is infantile histrionics.

IMO some fun SHOULD be allowed in threads..... but if they become too much, mods can issue warning/temporary ban. I am sure after a couple of warnings, people will learn to control how they post.... we are all intelligent beings here, I like to think.

[frenchfry]

I don't really see what the big deal is about these threads. I've been on pulse for like 2 years now, and I've barely noticed much change in threads. Besides, it's a chart DISCUSSION. People are allowed to contribute their thoughts in a discussion. I think some of us are overreacting to this whole thing imo.

[Mike is BAD]

Apr 23, 2016 21:52:20 GMT -5 emperortigerstar said:

I really hope some Prince songs can make the top 40 this week similar to how Bowie did.

Likely that Purple Rain will get into the Top 10 again. Maybe not this week, but next.