Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 16:18:49 GMT -5
DESPACITO breaking the record? WHAT?!?!?!?!?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 16:22:03 GMT -5
Tie record + break record now has more support than fail. Public opinion is shifting.
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MilesW1998
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Post by MilesW1998 on Jul 13, 2017 16:24:06 GMT -5
DESPACITO breaking the record? WHAT?!?!?!?!? Because everyone's calculated that Despacito has over 70k chart points, and nearly 2-1 over the nearest competitor, they think it may just break the 21 year record that has been held by Mariah and Boyz II Men.
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Jul 13, 2017 16:27:19 GMT -5
I just thought of something: Eminem ft Taylor and a Taylor ft Eminem. Breath of fresh air from Rihanna and good segues into their new albums, coming soon I'd say 0% chance of that happening, but it would surely debut at #1 without a doubt. Even if it was horrible and fell completely off the next week. The two fan bases together would erupt.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 16:30:55 GMT -5
Tie record + break record now has more support than fail. Public opinion is shifting. Rip someone switched. Still within one vote!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 16:33:12 GMT -5
MilesW1998 I'm just saying I can't believe out of all songs Despacito is the challenger.
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MilesW1998
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Post by MilesW1998 on Jul 13, 2017 16:39:04 GMT -5
MilesW1998 I'm just saying I can't believe out of all songs Despacito is the challenger. I know you don't like the song, but in all fairness, it's like the Macarena, except without the dance craze, or the slow chart progression. I mean, what did you expect to be the challenger, I'm The One?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 16:46:32 GMT -5
MilesW1998 I'm just saying I can't believe out of all songs Despacito is the challenger. I know you don't like the song, but in all fairness, it's like the Macarena, except without the dance craze, or the slow chart progression. I mean, what did you expect to be the challenger, I'm The One? Macarena would have easily broken the record if it hadn't taken so damn long to climb the charts. I wonder how many weeks it spent at number 2, if any?
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 13, 2017 16:54:14 GMT -5
It's interesting to look at the stats though. If I had the week to week stats for all the 10+ week number ones of the last few years, I'd love to compare them to Despacito to see how long I think it will last here. I think it's possible to make an educated guess but we definitely need the numbers first.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 16:55:44 GMT -5
It's interesting to look at the stats though. If I had the week to week stats for all the 10+ week number ones of the last few years, I'd love to compare them to Despacito to see how long I think it will last here. I think it's possible to make an educated guess but we definitely need the numbers first. I know that when UF was overtaken it was slightly under 50k. I'm sure if I went digging in the YE thread I could find its numbers at week 10
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tiduraes
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Post by tiduraes on Jul 13, 2017 17:05:15 GMT -5
I think you guys are overestimating how strong Eminem really is at this point in his career. Since The Monster, he only had one charting song that reached top 40, which was Rap God (and that peaked at 33). Guts Over Fear too, but it only lasted 3 weeks in the chart. If he collaborated with someone big, sure, he could get it, but alone, I don't think so.
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MilesW1998
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Post by MilesW1998 on Jul 13, 2017 17:09:02 GMT -5
I think you guys are overestimating how strong Eminem really is at this point in his career. Since The Monster, he only had one charting song that reached top 40, which was Rap God (and that peaked at 33). Guts Over Fear too, but it only lasted 3 weeks in the chart. If he collaborated with someone big, sure, he could get it, but alone, I don't think so. That's why some of us had thought of yet another collaboration effort with Rihanna, or even Taylor Swift.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 17:14:52 GMT -5
I know you don't like the song, but in all fairness, it's like the Macarena, except without the dance craze, or the slow chart progression. I mean, what did you expect to be the challenger, I'm The One? Macarena would have easily broken the record if it hadn't taken so damn long to climb the charts. I wonder how many weeks it spent at number 2, if any? No 1-4-4-9-12
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 17:19:42 GMT -5
Macarena would have easily broken the record if it hadn't taken so damn long to climb the charts. I wonder how many weeks it spent at number 2, if any? No 1-4-4-9-12 How about before hitting number one? It has the record for longest climb. Had it distributed it's points differently (faster on the way up) it would have beaten the record. Despacito went up extremely fast (after biebs)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 18:29:39 GMT -5
I was like 4yo when Macarena happened but the little bit I know is that it had a regular 20 week run - don't know the peak but it was not top 10 - then re entered the chart months later. It was #4 before going #1
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Jul 13, 2017 19:44:42 GMT -5
Tie record + break record now has more support than fail. Public opinion is shifting. right... Because now that's not true.
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Jul 13, 2017 19:51:22 GMT -5
If WT will overtake Despacito, it should happen on week #16... Which means that Despacito will fall 2 weeks short of breaking the record.
Despacito ~51k Wild Thoughts ~54k
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 13, 2017 19:54:50 GMT -5
It's interesting to look at the stats though. If I had the week to week stats for all the 10+ week number ones of the last few years, I'd love to compare them to Despacito to see how long I think it will last here. I think it's possible to make an educated guess but we definitely need the numbers first. I know that when UF was overtaken it was slightly under 50k. I'm sure if I went digging in the YE thread I could find its numbers at week 10 I'm mostly interested to see where these monster hits peaked (numbers-wise) and far into their run at #1 did they peak. How far did they have to drop before being overtaken. That sort of thing. Most songs do follow a general trajectory when it comes to numbers so Despacito would likely do the same, (ie. there's only so much it could drop each week in points so at what point does it reach a level where it could be overtaken.)
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Jul 13, 2017 19:57:38 GMT -5
If WT will overtake Despacito, it should happen on week #16... Which means that Despacito will fall 2 weeks short of breaking the record. Despacito ~51k Wild Thoughts ~54k But that is the furthest we can go to not make it absurd (Despacito losing 4k a week + WT gaining 3k). But I still think that TS will drop a debut after Despacito will call under 60k.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Jul 13, 2017 21:23:14 GMT -5
Ugh. Every single time we have a song spend 10+ weeks at number one, someone thinks it's going to happen.
Can we start making it mandatory to wait until it reached 13-14 weeks before start talking about this? 7 weeks is too damn far away to make any surefire prediction. Seven weeks, guys. That's August 28. It's currently July 13. So much can happen in that time frame.
I'm not saying yes or no to this question because I have literally no clue and neither do any of you.
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Post by Naos on Jul 13, 2017 21:32:37 GMT -5
Didn't it just peak at radio? I'd say it's unlikely now. Granted, it'll take a while for the airplay to crash.
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Jul 13, 2017 22:05:02 GMT -5
Also, what is the deal with Mariah Carey being called "Maria" in the poll options? Shhh It just seems disrespectful to someone with her chart history.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jul 13, 2017 22:08:33 GMT -5
Y'all will respect Ms. NΓΊΓ±ez-Mottola-Cannon and the stats only matched by her wind machine settings!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 22:28:16 GMT -5
Ugh. Every single time we have a song spend 10+ weeks at number one, someone thinks it's going to happen. Can we start making it mandatory to wait until it reached 13-14 weeks before start talking about this? 7 weeks is too damn far away to make any surefire prediction. Seven weeks, guys. That's August 28. It's currently July 13. So much can happen in that time frame. I'm not saying yes or no to this question because I have literally no clue and neither do any of you. 10 weeks with 70 THOUSAND f**kinG POINTS. I was never predicting SOY to break record because it never had so many points so deep into its run (or at all actually lmao) Didn't it just peak at radio? I'd say it's unlikely now. Granted, it'll take a while for the airplay to crash. and? it's just peaking in its 10th week thats normal LMAO. so if middle is 10 end would be 20...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 22:28:49 GMT -5
It just seems disrespectful to someone with her chart history. I made a spelling mistake lol I think you guys are overestimating how strong Eminem really is at this point in his career. Since The Monster, he only had one charting song that reached top 40, which was Rap God (and that peaked at 33). Guts Over Fear too, but it only lasted 3 weeks in the chart. If he collaborated with someone big, sure, he could get it, but alone, I don't think so. RG peaked at #6 and the rest were just one-off non-promoted tracks
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 22:35:48 GMT -5
Tie record + break record now has more support than fail. Public opinion is shifting. right... Because now that's not true. it's been one vote away for a while, when i commented it was one vote above
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MilesW1998
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Post by MilesW1998 on Jul 13, 2017 22:51:23 GMT -5
Ugh. Every single time we have a song spend 10+ weeks at number one, someone thinks it's going to happen. Can we start making it mandatory to wait until it reached 13-14 weeks before start talking about this? 7 weeks is too damn far away to make any surefire prediction. Seven weeks, guys. That's August 28. It's currently July 13. So much can happen in that time frame. I'm not saying yes or no to this question because I have literally no clue and neither do any of you. 10 weeks with 70 THOUSAND f**kinG POINTS. I was never predicting SOY to break record because it never had so many points so deep into its run (or at all actually lmao) Yeah, but you are seriously overreacting, that just because it has that amount of points, that it could actually break the record. Here's the rundown; it's peaked on radio and streaming, it lost the top spot in sales today, and only it's YouTube is keeping it propped up. If Wild Thoughts or anything can cause a dent to it in any capacity, it will drop soon. We get it, it SEEMS untouchable, but in lies a weakness, and soon it will fall from the top spot.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 13, 2017 23:27:16 GMT -5
I agree with Au$tin that this thread getting made every time a song reaches 10 weeks at #1 is obnoxious but I think in this case it could be something to watch. Of course, it depends on how far ahead Despacito is from #2, or whatever the nearest competition is. Is it double in points? I haven't seen a tabulation breakdown in a while but how does it compare to other songs in the top 5? How much does it have to lose in order for the next song to overtake it?
I want to actually see real numbers lol. Otherwise, this thread is pointless because it'll just be a back and forth of "it can do it!" "it will never happen!" "why does this thread exist?" and so on. Let's actually talk about it - or let's not. Otherwise the back and forth is worthless.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 23:30:57 GMT -5
10 weeks with 70 THOUSAND f**kinG POINTS. I was never predicting SOY to break record because it never had so many points so deep into its run (or at all actually lmao) Yeah, but you are seriously overreacting, that just because it has that amount of points, that it could actually break the record. Here's the rundown; it's peaked on radio and streaming, it lost the top spot in sales today, and only it's YouTube is keeping it propped up. If Wild Thoughts or anything can cause a dent to it in any capacity, it will drop soon. We get it, it SEEMS untouchable, but in lies a weakness, and soon it will fall from the top spot. what? youtube is one of its weeker metrics lmao. It's literally number one in everything else (over 1 week period)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 23:32:49 GMT -5
I agree with Au$tin that this thread getting made every time a song reaches 10 weeks at #1 is obnoxious but I think in this case it could be something to watch. Of course, it depends on how far ahead Despacito is from #2, or whatever the nearest competition is. Is it double in points? I haven't seen a tabulation breakdown in a while but how does it compare to other songs in the top 5? How much does it have to lose in order for the next song to overtake it? I want to actually see real numbers lol. Otherwise, this thread is pointless because it'll just be a back and forth of "it can do it!" "it will never happen!" "why does this thread exist?" and so on. Let's actually talk about it - or let's not. Otherwise the back and forth is worthless. You want real numbers? Despacito chilling at around 70k points Wild thoughts at around 40k In other words, if you added the entirety of SOY's pts to WT, it would still be behind Despacito That is why i'm making these predictions. Nobody predicted One Dance was gonna break the record and I was clear earlier this year that SOY wouldn't either
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