rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Jul 13, 2017 23:43:11 GMT -5
Yeah, but you are seriously overreacting, that just because it has that amount of points, that it could actually break the record. Here's the rundown; it's peaked on radio and streaming, it lost the top spot in sales today, and only it's YouTube is keeping it propped up. If Wild Thoughts or anything can cause a dent to it in any capacity, it will drop soon. We get it, it SEEMS untouchable, but in lies a weakness, and soon it will fall from the top spot. what? youtube is one of its weeker metrics lmao. It's literally number one in everything else (over 1 week period) You've been saying this incorrect statement for a few days now, so I oughta nip it in the bud since I've got the stats. It's #1 on US YT by almost a 2:1 margin over #2 (I'm the One). You just forgot to combine versions. Last tracking week 25.9m Despacito (13.1+12.8) 14.6m I'm the One 14.0m That's What I Like 13.2m Wild Thoughts This tracking week so far (7/7-7/10) 15.4m Despacito (7.7+7.7) 8.0m I'm the One 7.6m Wild Thoughts 7.5m That's What I Like
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2017 23:45:22 GMT -5
what? youtube is one of its weeker metrics lmao. It's literally number one in everything else (over 1 week period) You've been saying this incorrect statement for a few days now, so I oughta nip it in the bud since I've got the stats. It's #1 on US YT by almost a 2:1 margin over #2 (I'm the One). You just forgot to combine versions. Last tracking week 25.9m Despacito (13.1+12.8) 14.6m I'm the One 14.0m That's What I Like 13.2m Wild Thoughts This tracking week so far (7/7-7/10) 15.4m Despacito (7.7+7.7) 8.0m I'm the One 7.6m Wild Thoughts 7.5m That's What I Like haha I did... fuck im an idiot still tho I haven't been saying that for weeks. i actually defended Despacito's youtube advantage over WT. but thanks, your correction of my mistake even proves my point further. Look at how many views it's getting!
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Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 13,607
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Post by Enigma. on Jul 14, 2017 5:02:41 GMT -5
Of course anything can happen (hell, even JB can release a new single LOL) but against current rivals Despacito must lose 8-10% of its points every week and Wild Thoughts must pretty much conquer the radio.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 14, 2017 6:11:00 GMT -5
I agree with Au$tin that this thread getting made every time a song reaches 10 weeks at #1 is obnoxious but I think in this case it could be something to watch. Of course, it depends on how far ahead Despacito is from #2, or whatever the nearest competition is. Is it double in points? I haven't seen a tabulation breakdown in a while but how does it compare to other songs in the top 5? How much does it have to lose in order for the next song to overtake it? I want to actually see real numbers lol. Otherwise, this thread is pointless because it'll just be a back and forth of "it can do it!" "it will never happen!" "why does this thread exist?" and so on. Let's actually talk about it - or let's not. Otherwise the back and forth is worthless. You want real numbers? Despacito chilling at around 70k points Wild thoughts at around 40k In other words, if you added the entirety of SOY's pts to WT, it would still be behind Despacito That is why i'm making these predictions. Nobody predicted One Dance was gonna break the record and I was clear earlier this year that SOY wouldn't either Ok, that's a start. Do we have weekly numbers for Despacito? I mean, I could just go back through the weekly threads but those numbers aren't always posted, are they?
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Jul 14, 2017 7:08:21 GMT -5
I agree with Au$tin that this thread getting made every time a song reaches 10 weeks at #1 is obnoxious but I think in this case it could be something to watch. Of course, it depends on how far ahead Despacito is from #2, or whatever the nearest competition is. Is it double in points? I haven't seen a tabulation breakdown in a while but how does it compare to other songs in the top 5? How much does it have to lose in order for the next song to overtake it? I want to actually see real numbers lol. Otherwise, this thread is pointless because it'll just be a back and forth of "it can do it!" "it will never happen!" "why does this thread exist?" and so on. Let's actually talk about it - or let's not. Otherwise the back and forth is worthless. You want real numbers? Despacito chilling at around 70k points Wild thoughts at around 40k In other words, if you added the entirety of SOY's pts to WT, it would still be behind Despacito That is why i'm making these predictions. Nobody predicted One Dance was gonna break the record and I was clear earlier this year that SOY wouldn't either isn't SOY at ~32k?
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NeRD
Diamond Member
RIHANNA NAVY
Joined: March 2010
Posts: 15,076
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Post by NeRD on Jul 14, 2017 9:21:34 GMT -5
Ugh
Trying way too hard.
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renfield75
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 1,627
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Post by renfield75 on Jul 14, 2017 9:43:52 GMT -5
I know you don't like the song, but in all fairness, it's like the Macarena, except without the dance craze, or the slow chart progression. I mean, what did you expect to be the challenger, I'm The One? Macarena would have easily broken the record if it hadn't taken so damn long to climb the charts. I wonder how many weeks it spent at number 2, if any? "Macarena" had a relatively quick sprint to the top in its second run; it originally charted for 20 weeks in 1995, peaked at #45, and dropped off. Then it got a second wind in 1996 and reached number one in the 13th week of its second run (33rd overall combining both chart runs). Somewhat similar to "Despacito" charting for a few months, with a peak of #44, before the Bieber remix sent it flying up.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 13:15:07 GMT -5
Macarena would have easily broken the record if it hadn't taken so damn long to climb the charts. I wonder how many weeks it spent at number 2, if any? "Macarena" had a relatively quick sprint to the top in its second run; it originally charted for 20 weeks in 1995, peaked at #45, and dropped off. Then it got a second wind in 1996 and reached number one in the 13th week of its second run (33rd overall combining both chart runs). Somewhat similar to "Despacito" charting for a few months, with a peak of #44, before the Bieber remix sent it flying up. didn't know that it even charted before the remix
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 13:20:07 GMT -5
You want real numbers? Despacito chilling at around 70k points Wild thoughts at around 40k In other words, if you added the entirety of SOY's pts to WT, it would still be behind Despacito That is why i'm making these predictions. Nobody predicted One Dance was gonna break the record and I was clear earlier this year that SOY wouldn't either Ok, that's a start. Do we have weekly numbers for Despacito? I mean, I could just go back through the weekly threads but those numbers aren't always posted, are they? they are posted in the "week of x/x/x" threads, as well as sometimes in the YE thread. Due to ride being gone, I'll refer to fhas's numbers for last week: # Song Points Sales Airplay Streams +/- (%) 1 Despacito 72,000 129.0k 149.0m 61.2m -1.6 2 I'm The One 41,700 54.9k 110.0m 35.4m -6.0 3 That's What I Like 40,300 33.3k 146.0m 31.4m -1.0 4 Wild Thoughts 40,000 48.4k 78.0m 39.8m -2.8 5 Shape Of You 33,300 29.7k 124.5m 24.3m -0.6 6 HUMBLE. 29,600 35.8k 64.9m 28.2m -3.0 7 Believer 27,200 46.0k 88.6m 17.9m -16.6 8 Body Like A Back Road 27,100 50.0k 84.0m 17.8m +5.6 9 Congratulations 25,800 30.8k 31.9m 29.0m -6.8 10 Unforgettable 25,500 22.0k 57.0m 25.9m +5.4 Keep in mind despacito peaked around 75k and it hit 70k+ in its third week. Amazing consistency at a ridiculous point margin. It also set the OD streaming record (over Humble!!)
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 13:21:07 GMT -5
You want real numbers? Despacito chilling at around 70k points Wild thoughts at around 40k In other words, if you added the entirety of SOY's pts to WT, it would still be behind Despacito That is why i'm making these predictions. Nobody predicted One Dance was gonna break the record and I was clear earlier this year that SOY wouldn't either isn't SOY at ~32k? despacito was at 73k when i made the post
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Gary
Diamond Member
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Posts: 45,742
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Post by Gary on Jul 14, 2017 13:35:35 GMT -5
With 8 weeks to go (including this one), although it may not hold,Despacito is not #1 on itunes.
A new release knocking a blockbuster hit off the top of itunes is the first sign of the beginning of the end. Does that mean 7 or 8 more weeks or longer until the end? I guess we will see. Still think it is way too early to declare this a done deal.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 14, 2017 13:44:20 GMT -5
You want real numbers? Despacito chilling at around 70k points Wild thoughts at around 40k In other words, if you added the entirety of SOY's pts to WT, it would still be behind Despacito That is why i'm making these predictions. Nobody predicted One Dance was gonna break the record and I was clear earlier this year that SOY wouldn't either Ok, that's a start. Do we have weekly numbers for Despacito? I mean, I could just go back through the weekly threads but those numbers aren't always posted, are they? Despacito's run in the top 10: 05/06: 26,400 points (#9) 05/13: 42,800 points (#4) 05/20: 48,800 points (#3) 05/27: 54,100 points (1st week at #1) 06/03: 60,500 points (2nd week at #1) 06/10: 68,900 points (3rd week at #1) 06/17: 74,500 points (4th week at #1) 06/24: 73,900 points (5th week at #1) 07/01: 75,900 points (6th week at #1) PEAK07/08: 75,000 points (7th week at #1) 07/15: 73,100 points (8th week at #1) 07/22: 72,000 points (9th week at #1) Ride$ always said that this year's points are 10-15% higher than last year's points, so its peak is not THAT absurd (Closer, Work, Black Beatles probably peaked higher), but the number of weeks above 70k is really amazing.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 14:46:48 GMT -5
Ok, that's a start. Do we have weekly numbers for Despacito? I mean, I could just go back through the weekly threads but those numbers aren't always posted, are they? Despacito's run in the top 10: 05/06: 26,400 points (#9) 05/13: 42,800 points (#4) 05/20: 48,800 points (#3) 05/27: 54,100 points (1st week at #1) 06/03: 60,500 points (2nd week at #1) 06/10: 68,900 points (3rd week at #1) 06/17: 74,500 points (4th week at #1) 06/24: 73,900 points (5th week at #1) 07/01: 75,900 points (6th week at #1) PEAK07/08: 75,000 points (7th week at #1) 07/15: 73,100 points (8th week at #1) 07/22: 72,000 points (9th week at #1) Ride$ always said that this year's points are 10-15% higher than last year's points, so its peak is not THAT absurd (Closer, Work, Black Beatles probably peaked higher), but the number of weeks above 70k is really amazing. I'm pretty sure that even with the multiplier that BB may or may not apply (screwing over earlier-in-the-year hits) Despacito peaked higher than work.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 14, 2017 15:36:14 GMT -5
Ok, that's a start. Do we have weekly numbers for Despacito? I mean, I could just go back through the weekly threads but those numbers aren't always posted, are they? they are posted in the "week of x/x/x" threads, as well as sometimes in the YE thread. Due to ride being gone, I'll refer to fhas's numbers for last week: # Song Points Sales Airplay Streams +/- (%) 1 Despacito 72,000 129.0k 149.0m 61.2m -1.6 2 I'm The One 41,700 54.9k 110.0m 35.4m -6.0 3 That's What I Like 40,300 33.3k 146.0m 31.4m -1.0 4 Wild Thoughts 40,000 48.4k 78.0m 39.8m -2.8 5 Shape Of You 33,300 29.7k 124.5m 24.3m -0.6 6 HUMBLE. 29,600 35.8k 64.9m 28.2m -3.0 7 Believer 27,200 46.0k 88.6m 17.9m -16.6 8 Body Like A Back Road 27,100 50.0k 84.0m 17.8m +5.6 9 Congratulations 25,800 30.8k 31.9m 29.0m -6.8 10 Unforgettable 25,500 22.0k 57.0m 25.9m +5.4 Keep in mind despacito peaked around 75k and it hit 70k+ in its third week. Amazing consistency at a ridiculous point margin. It also set the OD streaming record (over Humble!!) This is good! Hypothetically, how many weeks do we think it would take to fall to 40,000 pts? Do we have any idea where Shape Of You and I'm The One peaked and how long they took to fall from their peak to below 40k points? Of course these questions don't take into account the likelihood that Wild Thoughts could rise to 50 or 60,000. Those are subsequent questions. Then we could compare the two. Of course, all of this is pointless if we just wait and see lol. I've just been on a numbers kick lately. Maybe if I get time later I'll see if I can collect what I want from previous threads and go from there.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 14, 2017 15:41:37 GMT -5
Also, seeing the points of the song's weeks in the top 10, it would be interesting to see the breakdown of the three measures and how they stack up. Streaming will likely be the last to fall dramatically and radio is about peaking now, but radio also tends to fall in increments rather than a lot at a time. So if streaming maintained itself for a few more weeks and airplay started dropping now, the overall loss weeek over week would still be minimal until streaming and sales started to fall too.
The reason why I want to compare this to songs like Shape Of You and Closer is because I want to see at what point in those song's runs did the metrics of airplay, sales and streaming begin to fall and how much did they fall each week over time. Once a major hit like these start to lose across all theee metrics, what's the usual number of weeks they stay at number before they get overtaken.
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 14, 2017 15:46:12 GMT -5
they are posted in the "week of x/x/x" threads, as well as sometimes in the YE thread. Due to ride being gone, I'll refer to fhas's numbers for last week: # Song Points Sales Airplay Streams +/- (%) 1 Despacito 72,000 129.0k 149.0m 61.2m -1.6 2 I'm The One 41,700 54.9k 110.0m 35.4m -6.0 3 That's What I Like 40,300 33.3k 146.0m 31.4m -1.0 4 Wild Thoughts 40,000 48.4k 78.0m 39.8m -2.8 5 Shape Of You 33,300 29.7k 124.5m 24.3m -0.6 6 HUMBLE. 29,600 35.8k 64.9m 28.2m -3.0 7 Believer 27,200 46.0k 88.6m 17.9m -16.6 8 Body Like A Back Road 27,100 50.0k 84.0m 17.8m +5.6 9 Congratulations 25,800 30.8k 31.9m 29.0m -6.8 10 Unforgettable 25,500 22.0k 57.0m 25.9m +5.4 Keep in mind despacito peaked around 75k and it hit 70k+ in its third week. Amazing consistency at a ridiculous point margin. It also set the OD streaming record (over Humble!!) This is good! Hypothetically, how many weeks do we think it would take to fall to 40,000 pts? Do we have any idea where Shape Of You and I'm The One peaked and how long they took to fall from their peak to below 40k points? Of course these questions don't take into account the likelihood that Wild Thoughts could rise to 50 or 60,000. Those are subsequent questions. Then we could compare the two. Of course, all of this is pointless if we just wait and see lol. I've just been on a numbers kick lately. Maybe if I get time later I'll see if I can collect what I want from previous threads and go from there. I'm The One: peaked with 60,400 points (only week at #1) and never fell below 40k (10 weeks). 10-11 weeks after its peak to fall below 40k. Shape Of You: peaked with approximately 71,300 points (album release, 7th week at #1). SOY debuted with 55k, fell below 40k for 1 or 2 weeks (I'm not sure since that was the week BB changed the formula) and after that it had 15-16 weeks above 40k. 9-10 weeks after its peak it fell below 40k.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 15:56:21 GMT -5
This is good! Hypothetically, how many weeks do we think it would take to fall to 40,000 pts? Do we have any idea where Shape Of You and I'm The One peaked and how long they took to fall from their peak to below 40k points? Of course these questions don't take into account the likelihood that Wild Thoughts could rise to 50 or 60,000. Those are subsequent questions. Then we could compare the two. Of course, all of this is pointless if we just wait and see lol. I've just been on a numbers kick lately. Maybe if I get time later I'll see if I can collect what I want from previous threads and go from there. I'm The One: peaked with 60,400 points (only week at #1) and never fell below 40k (10 weeks). 10-11 weeks after its peak to fall below 40k. Shape Of You: peaked with approximately 71,300 points (album release, 7th week at #1). SOY debuted with 55k, fell below 40k for 1 or 2 weeks (I'm not sure since that was the week BB changed the formula) and after that it had 15-16 weeks above 40k. 9-10 weeks after its peak it fell below 40k. After B&B had been crippled by the youtube multiplier going from 1/12k to 1/16k, it was at 41k points. That week, it was still number one, however (weakest point position of a number one song in over a year). That means SOY was below that. Also worth noting: SOY after pandora still barely spent any time above 70k. Despacito has spent over 6 weeks above that margin.
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Post by Naos on Jul 14, 2017 17:24:38 GMT -5
It's on its way down. The fact it could be overtaken on iTunes by a Selena Gomez song of all things, is clear proof of that. It's losing quite a bit in streaming. It's losing in radio, while "Wild Thoughts" is having heavy gains. Even if "Wild Thoughts" doesn't overtake it, it's showing clear signs of weakness.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 18:06:08 GMT -5
It's on its way down. The fact it could be overtaken on iTunes by a Selena Gomez song of all things, is clear proof of that. It's losing quite a bit in streaming. It's losing in radio, while "Wild Thoughts" is having heavy gains. Even if "Wild Thoughts" doesn't overtake it, it's showing clear signs of weakness. clear signs of weakness at 70k points i can't believe people are still citing WT as the despacito killer lmao
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Post by Naos on Jul 14, 2017 18:08:20 GMT -5
Yes, it is showing signs of weakness, especially in on-demand streaming. And radio, it's on its way down. It's not going to get to the record the way it is going, unless it gets another music video.
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Envoirment
Diamond Member
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Post by Envoirment on Jul 14, 2017 18:25:32 GMT -5
Isn't Despacito still increasing in airplay slightly/staying stable? Also, it's still outselling "Wild Thoughts" by 3:1 on iTunes once you take into account its second version. "Wild Thoughts" will need to pick up a lot in sales and airplay to have a chance of overtaking "Despacito" before it gets to week 17 at #1.
Definitely has more of a chance than any song has had so far given its dominance. Taylor Swift will be the main competition if she releases her lead single in August.
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Jul 14, 2017 18:46:57 GMT -5
Tbh, I don't think that BB should not count both versions. It's just an unfair advantage. They should count the version that gets the most points for every song. Let's just say that there is a situation in which the top two are remixes, one of a song by an established artist, and the second of a newcomer. Now, if you look at the main versions, the #2 has more points but no, it's blocked. Each version should be counted independently. I'm pretty sure that the same thing happened with TWIL; although I love a song and I'm happy that it got to #1, it got there thanks to the remixes? I don't remember. But either way, you get my point.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2017 19:04:38 GMT -5
Tbh, I don't think that BB should not count both versions. It's just an unfair advantage. They should count the version that gets the most points for every song. Let's just say that there is a situation in which the top two are remixes, one of a song by an established artist, and the second of a newcomer. Now, if you look at the main versions, the #2 has more points but no, it's blocked. Each version should be counted independently. I'm pretty sure that the same thing happened with TWIL; although I love a song and I'm happy that it got to #1, it got there thanks to the remixes? I don't remember. But either way, you get my point. But there are problems with this: Song x is released and is very successful. An artist remixes it and many fans of song x now listen to song y and then song x loses points, despite it overall becoming more popular. It's a question of how large you want their scope to be. Should 6 second vines count as entire song streams? Should remix artists be credited if without them a song wouldn't be number one? (Like the hills 5th week or so I think)
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Jul 14, 2017 21:27:09 GMT -5
I'm The One: peaked with 60,400 points (only week at #1) and never fell below 40k (10 weeks). 10-11 weeks after its peak to fall below 40k. Shape Of You: peaked with approximately 71,300 points (album release, 7th week at #1). SOY debuted with 55k, fell below 40k for 1 or 2 weeks (I'm not sure since that was the week BB changed the formula) and after that it had 15-16 weeks above 40k. 9-10 weeks after its peak it fell below 40k. After B&B had been crippled by the youtube multiplier going from 1/12k to 1/16k, it was at 41k points. That week, it was still number one, however (weakest point position of a number one song in over a year). That means SOY was below that. Also worth noting: SOY after pandora still barely spent any time above 70k. Despacito has spent over 6 weeks above that margin. Yeah. Also, if you don't count the album release week, SOY would've peaked at 66k. Closer, for example, had three 66k+ weeks before Pandora.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 14, 2017 22:11:45 GMT -5
Yes, it is showing signs of weakness, especially in on-demand streaming. And radio, it's on its way down. It's not going to get to the record the way it is going, unless it gets another music video. It could lose 1/4 of its overall points and still be number one. It's going to start its descent at some point, just how fast will it fall until something passes it is what matters for the main question.
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Post by Naos on Jul 14, 2017 22:19:56 GMT -5
Isn't Despacito still increasing in airplay slightly/staying stable? Also, it's still outselling "Wild Thoughts" by 3:1 on iTunes once you take into account its second version. "Wild Thoughts" will need to pick up a lot in sales and airplay to have a chance of overtaking "Despacito" before it gets to week 17 at #1. Definitely has more of a chance than any song has had so far given its dominance. Taylor Swift will be the main competition if she releases her lead single in August. No airplay audience has peaked. Usually, radio goes one of two ways. It'll bleed fast, like "Something Just Like This", or it'll descend slow as hell like "Shape Of You" is doing.
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Post by Naos on Jul 14, 2017 22:20:54 GMT -5
Yes, it is showing signs of weakness, especially in on-demand streaming. And radio, it's on its way down. It's not going to get to the record the way it is going, unless it gets another music video. It could lose 1/4 of its overall points and still be number one. It's going to start its descent at some point, just how fast will it fall until something passes it is what matters for the main question. It's already starting to "descend". It's losing in overall points now, pretty sure.
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Jul 14, 2017 23:21:18 GMT -5
Yes, it is showing signs of weakness, especially in on-demand streaming. And radio, it's on its way down. It's not going to get to the record the way it is going, unless it gets another music video. Are we gonna pretend like Selena isn't an artist with a massive fanbase or....it was number for about a day and including both versions it wasn't even close. It showing weakness when its incredibly far ahead of everything charting doesnt mean much. Unless Taylor is dropping some bomb single soon or there's a wild thoughts challenge, Despacito has a pretty easy road ahead of it.
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Post by Naos on Jul 14, 2017 23:26:01 GMT -5
Yes, it is showing signs of weakness, especially in on-demand streaming. And radio, it's on its way down. It's not going to get to the record the way it is going, unless it gets another music video. Are we gonna pretend like Selena isn't an artist with a massive fanbase or....it was number for about a day and including both versions it wasn't even close. It showing weakness when its incredibly far ahead of everything charting doesnt mean much. Unless Taylor is dropping some bomb single soon or there's a wild thoughts challenge, Despacito has a pretty easy road ahead of it. So is Demi Lovato, she couldn't beat Despacito. Neither could Charlie Puth, Shawn Mendes, etc. Even with their discounts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2017 0:12:29 GMT -5
Are we gonna pretend like Selena isn't an artist with a massive fanbase or....it was number for about a day and including both versions it wasn't even close. It showing weakness when its incredibly far ahead of everything charting doesnt mean much. Unless Taylor is dropping some bomb single soon or there's a wild thoughts challenge, Despacito has a pretty easy road ahead of it. So is Demi Lovato, she couldn't beat Despacito. Neither could Charlie Puth, Shawn Mendes, etc. Even with their discounts. cuz its so strong lmao thanks for proving my point
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