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Post by lady𝓐fan on Jan 2, 2019 22:40:56 GMT -5
Recently I’ve seen people saying that Carrie doesn’t have much time left on the chart with “Love Wins,” which I disagree with. After thinking a bit I realized that A-listers such as Jason Aldean and Keith Urban have spent up to 24 weeks to peak. That gives at most 10 weeks (including the 2 weeks of the freeze) to get as high as possible, which is more than enough to hit the top 5 or maybe even #1?
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 2, 2019 22:47:39 GMT -5
I swear you guys have thrown out every song from the album should be the next single. Even "The Song We Used to Make Love To" which if that hits radio, I don't even know if it can make Top 10 or even Top 20. Seriously, that song sounds like more polarizing than your average female song.
Honestly, I listened to the album a couple of times the past week and if they want a safe radio hit I feel like "Southbound" is the option. Big seller "Drinking Alone", and award buzz "Spinning Bottles". I genuinely think all the other songs would perform about as good as "Cry Pretty", maybe a bit better but probably worse.
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Post by thenewclassic on Jan 2, 2019 23:14:31 GMT -5
Here's the thing.
With Carrie, I feel like the label wants radio/commercial success along with critical acclaim as well. I've seen a few people say Carrie showed artistic growth with the lead single, which I agree and disagree with. However, I don't think we saw that AT ALL with "Love Wins", and both singles have left a lot to be desired in terms of commercial success. Let's face it, we will probably never see Carrie get any Kacey Musgraves-type of love from critics, and definitely not from this album. It's basically a matter of making the most of it at this point, after 2 crappy first single choices, so I think aiming for radio/commercial success along with as much critical praise as possible is the way to go.
In order to get Carrie back on track commercially, "Southbound" makes perfect sense as the next single. It's the most radio-friendly, and would likely do really well in sales and streaming. With a fun, party/summer-themed video, I could see it being a huge success. Not to mention it seems like a fun song to see her perform live on TV and on tour. "Ghosts On the Stereo" isn't a bad song, but it's boring and really nothing special enough to warrant significant enough praise from critics to the point where it should be a single, imo.
If "Southbound" peaks in the spring/summer, "Drinking Alone" would be the perfect 4th single. I can see critics praising it and radio loving it at the same time. As mentioned prior, it has already sold decently. Not to mention her vocals are phenomenal on it.
"Low" would put the icing on the cake for me as the 5th and final single here. Her vocals, emotion and delivery, and everything are just on point. I could see her getting Chris Stapleton-like praise from that one. I'm not sure if it could go #1, but I don't care, as I think the success from "Southbound" and "Drinking Alone" would be enough to warrant it as the last single to close out the era.
I love "Backsliding" too, but I feel like it's something that could have came off of Storyteller. It is basically the "Relapse" or "Chaser" of this album, which is definitely a compliment, but I just don't see them releasing that one. It just screams album track to me (same for "Ghosts On the Stereo").
So yeah, I think singles should go:
1. Cry Pretty 2. Love Wins 3. Southbound 4. Drinking Alone 5. Low
However, I have a strong feeling that "End Up With You" will become a single at some point (possibly even the next single perhaps), so it's likely that one of the 3 preferred singles I mentioned above won't happen.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Jan 3, 2019 21:59:44 GMT -5
Low is great but I don't see it ever being a single.
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Post by thenewclassic on Jan 4, 2019 10:14:21 GMT -5
Low is great but I don't see it ever being a single.
You might be right. I feel the same way about "Backsliding" though, which is another fan-favorite from this album.
In all reality, "End Up With You" will likely be the next single for spring/summer, then we will probably get "Drinking Alone" 4th as the final single lol.
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g8erboi
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Post by g8erboi on Jan 4, 2019 10:42:33 GMT -5
Notice how on Spotify, the animated artworks for "Cry Pretty", "Love Wins", and "End Up With You" are all unique compared to the rest of the tracks on the album. I wonder if that’s a sign that EUWY will be the next single.
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Post by thenewclassic on Jan 4, 2019 11:55:12 GMT -5
Notice how on Spotify, the animated artworks for "Cry Pretty", "Love Wins", and "End Up With You" are all unique compared to the rest of the tracks on the album. I wonder if that’s a sign that EUWY will be the next single.
I think it's pretty likely. It seems like releasing the pre-released tracks before her albums drop as singles is a habit of Carrie's/her labels lol. The song does fit the spring/summer season, so I can definitely see it, which likely means "Southbound" won't be the next single as I was hoping. :(
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 4, 2019 12:59:19 GMT -5
Notice how on Spotify, the animated artworks for "Cry Pretty", "Love Wins", and "End Up With You" are all unique compared to the rest of the tracks on the album. I wonder if that’s a sign that EUWY will be the next single. They’re only the ones that ended up with individual artworks because they were the preview tracks. I think EUWY would be a fantastic single choice. But I’m not too sure that they’re going the same route as they did with the Play On era for choosing singles. Who knows.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Jan 4, 2019 19:32:46 GMT -5
Yes, EUWY would be a fantastic single, but they need to release Drinking Alone next.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Jan 6, 2019 17:44:39 GMT -5
"Love Wins" up 2 spots to #15 on Mediabase entering the Top 15.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 6, 2019 23:51:30 GMT -5
I'll take End Up with You next and Drinking Alone better get a release at some point, but it'll really suck when Backsliding gets passed on while they wasted two singles on Cry Pretty and this. Maybe they can go six deep since Love Wins was already on the charts by the time the album came out and Carrie generally makes music a little slower than other A-listers.
Anyway, keeping the discussion on the current single, I see this going all the way to the top 5. It was a slow start after Cry Pretty burned off some of her momentum, but now that it's gaining traction it'll most likely get a week in the schedule.
Nothing about this song in particular, but it's a shame the way radio seems to operate, with every corporate-backed song that hits the top 10 (with a few exceptions) taking a turn at #1. It's a never-ending cycle that closes out the little guy, huh?
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Post by Naos on Jan 7, 2019 17:31:00 GMT -5
Hot 100: #83 (debut)
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Post by lady𝓐fan on Jan 9, 2019 10:51:29 GMT -5
Does anyone see crossover potential in “Drinking Alone”?
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Jan 9, 2019 11:24:47 GMT -5
Does anyone see crossover potential in “Drinking Alone”? Yes, but I doubt anything from Carrie will ever truly crossover again. I think it (plus several other songs in her back catalog and on CP) could become a hit if it were pushed. But I wouldn't count on it at all
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Jan 12, 2019 15:31:16 GMT -5
If Carrie & her team gave any good pop-leaning song of hers a solid push, she could absolutely see success in CHR/Top 40 world again. But, clearly that’s never going to be her motive, which, as a fan, is kind of a bummer to see, but I can respect it from an artistic standpoint.
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Faithfan
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Post by Faithfan on Jan 13, 2019 5:52:22 GMT -5
Uplifting and inspirational. Classic Carrie!
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 15, 2019 19:26:16 GMT -5
I was just saying in the "Never Comin' Down" thread that A-listers seldom last more than 25 weeks on the chart, and I don't see this being much of an exception to that trend. It's at #18 after 18 weeks on the Billboard chart with a 7-day gain of 358k audience and 156 spins. Carrie would need another ~10 million to reach the approximate Top 10 threshold, and position-wise it's an uphill climb for a T10 peak. With songs that are no longer being promoted (Good Girl, Speechless, She Got the Best of Me, Best Shot, and Lose It) ahead of her taken off, she has a clear path to #13, assuming Michael Ray and Jon Pardi don't pass her from behind, but that's 2-4 weeks down the road already. I think, as with NCD, Capitol will push this as long and hard as it can, but a low single digit peak is frankly all I see this doing. And as with Keith's tune, there were much better single choices than this, so this release still baffles me, aside from the explanation that maybe Carrie wanted this released and pushed her label to choose this as the second single. Carrie should be able to easily score a #1 with "Drinking Alone," "End Up with You," or "Backsliding," the latter of which I'm surprised hasn't been floated by more people here as a single candidate.
It's interesting to see radio suddenly cooling to so many A-listers at the same time. The latest efforts from Blake Shelton, Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban have all similarly underperformed, and FGL's "Talk You Out of It" is also a strong contender to continue that wave of A-list underperformances. However, I think this trend is more coincidental than anything. "Turnin' Me On" tested horribly, and "Never Comin' Down" and "Better Boat" stick out like sore thumbs on radio.
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Jan 15, 2019 21:41:37 GMT -5
It's interesting to see radio suddenly cooling to so many A-listers at the same time. The latest efforts from Blake Shelton, Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban have all similarly underperformed, and FGL's "Talk You Out of It" is also a strong contender to continue that wave of A-list underperformances. However, I think this trend is more coincidental than anything. "Turnin' Me On" tested horribly, and "Never Comin' Down" and "Better Boat" stick out like sore thumbs on radio. I do wonder how much it is radio moving on vs poor testing (and I think it's a range) I also wonder how much of it is, not wanting to cater to radio as much anymore. On each of the aforementioned artists albums there are far more "radio friendly" songs that could have been selected as singles for radio, instead of the actual choices.
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Jan 16, 2019 8:57:21 GMT -5
I still think this will hit the top 10. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I don't think radio is just going to stop playing this once it's 25 weeks old just because Carrie is an A-lister. This had such a different run than any other single of hers thus far and Carrie is on a new label in a new stage of her career, so things just might be different for her from now on. If UMG wants to keep pushing this, they will. "Love Wins" is still the 4th youngest song in the top 20 (tied with Aldean), so it's not like we're talking about it being as old as "Last Shot" here. There are at least 4 songs in the top 10 going recurrent in the next couple weeks plus Stapleton seems to be living on borrowed time and there are no huge threats behind her (Ray and Pardi could pass her, but she could definitely stay ahead too). This didn't have a great week, but the past few have been pretty good. I still think it'll be top 12 by Valentine's Day and with the baby due any week now, I don't know why they would feel the need to pull this. It's not like Carrie will be able to shoot a new video (unless it's already shot) or do much promo any time soon anyway.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Jan 16, 2019 10:08:19 GMT -5
It's interesting to see radio suddenly cooling to so many A-listers at the same time. The latest efforts from Blake Shelton, Kenny Chesney and Keith Urban have all similarly underperformed, and FGL's "Talk You Out of It" is also a strong contender to continue that wave of A-list underperformances. However, I think this trend is more coincidental than anything. "Turnin' Me On" tested horribly, and "Never Comin' Down" and "Better Boat" stick out like sore thumbs on radio. I do wonder how much it is radio moving on vs poor testing (and I think it's a range) I also wonder how much of it is, not wanting to cater to radio as much anymore. On each of the aforementioned artists albums there are far more "radio friendly" songs that could have been selected as singles for radio, instead of the actual choices. Yeah, I think a lot of these artists (maybe not FGL, who I think just released a song that radio isn't immediately thrilled about following up another song that burned on radio kind of fast) are just at the point in their careers where they want to try different stuff, even if it means not every song becomes a top 5 hit at radio. And they can afford to have a song miss the top tier every now and then without taking too much a hit to their momentum that they can't recover from. Cry Pretty and Love Wins in particular both strike me as songs that Carrie's team might have anticipated would be tougher sells at radio but they were personal to Carrie so they decided to release them anyway. If Love Wins can manage a single-digit peak with a little bit of label pushing similarly to what Cry Pretty did, even if it burns hard afterward, I think Carrie will be in a good place to release something more radio-friendly next and have no trouble getting back into the top 2. And it's better to release the riskier singles early on in the album cycle like Carrie's team has, so she'll still have momentum to spare for single #3. I feel the same way about Keith, Kenny and Blake's chances of rebounding after an under-performer. FGL will be fine, too. I think People Are Different is a potentially big hit.
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recordyear
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Post by recordyear on Feb 1, 2019 11:08:46 GMT -5
Callouts are back this week and the callout for this is terrible. Second to last net positive and highest burnout rate. Top 10 could still be manageable but not higher than that.
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Feb 1, 2019 12:02:18 GMT -5
Callouts are back this week and the callout for this is terrible. Second to last net positive and highest burnout rate. Top 10 could still be manageable but not higher than that. Not shocking because well Carrie Underwood is female. On the bright side she isn't doing the worst callout score wise, that honor goes to Jake Owen so she at least kind of has that song as a shield as in radio may stall that song out before they stall out "Love Wins". Looking at the rolling Mediabase chart, it does appear that Carrie Underwood is 5th in line for the Top 10 provided if no one below her passes her. She probably needs to just wait for both Chris Stapleton and Midland to freefall and have all 3 of the current freefalling songs to go recurrent. I don't think the label will be behind this song much longer, they probably are gonna drop this once it does hit the Top 10. I imagine the label would want the third single from the album decently up the charts before her tour starts in May.
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NeRD
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Post by NeRD on Feb 1, 2019 21:01:47 GMT -5
Well, if the callouts are that bad let's just hope for a Top 10 peak. That's a good enough excuse for country radio to drop it without looking mosogynistic.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Feb 2, 2019 1:48:42 GMT -5
Well, if the callouts are that bad let's just hope for a Top 10 peak. That's a good enough excuse for country radio to drop it without looking mosogynistic. Yes b/c they definitely don’t look misogynistic already ;)
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Post by Wackadoodle on Feb 2, 2019 13:16:17 GMT -5
Callouts are back this week and the callout for this is terrible. Second to last net positive and highest burnout rate. Top 10 could still be manageable but not higher than that. Not shocking because well Carrie Underwood is female. On the bright side she isn't doing the worst callout score wise, that honor goes to Jake Owen so she at least kind of has that song as a shield as in radio may stall that song out before they stall out "Love Wins". Looking at the rolling Mediabase chart, it does appear that Carrie Underwood is 5th in line for the Top 10 provided if no one below her passes her. She probably needs to just wait for both Chris Stapleton and Midland to freefall and have all 3 of the current freefalling songs to go recurrent. I don't think the label will be behind this song much longer, they probably are gonna drop this once it does hit the Top 10. I imagine the label would want the third single from the album decently up the charts before her tour starts in May. This isn't gonna be a popular take, but we can't just give every female who tests terribly the "excuse" that she's a woman. I completely agree that females face an uphill climb at radio, but sometimes a female can simply release a song that radio listeners dislike simply for the reason that they don't enjoy the melody or lyrics. Maren Morris, a newcomer, was able to get every song off her debut album to the top ten and Kelsea Ballerini has been doing a fine job of breaking in at radio as well. Even Carly Pearce has been doing all right at radio, scoring a #1 and another top 15 off her debut album in addition to her new debut single "Closer to You" being off to a stellar start at radio. Maybe radio listeners just don't like "Love Wins." Maybe they find the lyrics to be corny and preachy. Maybe they don't care for the melody or vocals. Maybe they just aren't feeling the song. We can't always give every female song that does poorly at radio the excuse that radio listeners are just being unfair because they hate females. If Love Wins ends up peaking low on the charts, it'll be because it can't put up decent numbers on the research charts, fair and square. "Being female" sure hasn't inhibited "Miss Me More" or "Girl" from doing okay on radio so far. Personally, I detest this song simply because the lyrics are atrocious. They sound like something that would be performed at a kindergarten musical. I'm shocked that such a juvenile song could come anywhere near the top 40 at radio and I'm positive if this were sung by anyone else this wouldn't even chart. Do I agree that "we're meant to love each other" or whatever preachy, cliched garbage this song is trying to say is true? Um, yeah, obviously. But it sounds extremely awkward, corny, and just downright lame in a song. I don't know which corporate label executive decided we needed to hear a bunch of moralizing songs on the radio about how we're all supposed to be friends and live happily ever after, but, my god, this new wave of preachy songs is just ridiculous. I cringe every time one of them comes on the radio. I mean, come on, when did country radio become Radio Disney? Give me a f*cking break. Sure, there are a bunch of pricks out there who need to learn to be nicer to others, but, come on, is a song on the radio saying "we're made to look out for each other" gonna actually accomplish anything but making them laugh and change the station?
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Feb 2, 2019 13:29:02 GMT -5
I definitely feel like "Love Wins" testing poorly has more to do with the song than it being from a female artist. It's not even selling well, something that Carrie Underwood usually doesn't have to worry about.
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Post by loveofmusic on Feb 2, 2019 13:59:10 GMT -5
Carrie's songs don't usually test poorly on callouts. "Love Wins" & her previous single, "Cry Pretty" both tested very poorly by her standards. IMO that doesn't mean a bias towards female artists on callouts (which there is). For whatever reason, people don't care for the song & that coupled with not as good sales compared to her usual singles isn't helping.
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Post by Carriefan1190 on Feb 2, 2019 14:21:36 GMT -5
Honestly, I love this song, but it’s obvious that this is running out of gas. Capitol needs to get this to top 10 to keep her top 10 streak going and then let it go. Time to release Drinking Alone and try to recover this era with a #1.
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Post by Wackadoodle on Feb 2, 2019 18:24:28 GMT -5
I definitely feel like "Love Wins" testing poorly has more to do with the song than it being from a female artist. It's not even selling well, something that Carrie Underwood usually doesn't have to worry about. Exactly! It's unfortunate when there are so few females having success and one of them under-performs. I get it. But we can't just give every woman who tests/sells poorly a pass. Sometimes a song just flops because it sucks. Let's move on from "Love Wins" and release one of the many phenomenal tracks Carrie has to offer on her new album.
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lipe
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Post by lipe on Feb 2, 2019 19:20:27 GMT -5
Honestly, I love this song, but it’s obvious that this is running out of gas. Capitol needs to get this to top 10 to keep her top 10 streak going and then let it go. Time to release Drinking Alone and try to recover this era with a #1. I love this song too, it's honestly one of my favorites of the album. I get where people are coming from complaining about the cliched lyrics, but it doesn't bother me at all, and I'm really into the melody.
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