HITS: Ed Sheeran #1: 123k

[areyoureadytojump]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=328968&title=THIS-EQUALS-THE-TOP-20

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

THIS EQUALS THE TOP 20

Ed Sheeran’s latest, = (Atlantic) will debut at #1 on this week’s HITS Top 50. The only other Top 10 debut comes from labelmate Megan Thee Stallion. Meanwhile, The Grateful Dead, whose repertoire is still echoing through the Hollywood hills after Dead & Company's Bowl stint, will have the week's other significant bow with another Dave's Picks selection via Grateful Dead/Rhino.

[fearlessarrow]

123k seems really low? I guess streaming wasn't going to be huge seeing its Spotify performance ("Overpass Graffiti" being the only one outside of the two singles that seem to be doing damage) and most people don't move a ton of physical units in this day and age, but 80k pure sales for Ed Sheeran still surprises me. Or maybe it's not that surprising and I'm just overestimating Ed's selling capabilities? 

[iHype.]

Nov 2, 2021 16:37:21 GMT -5 fearlessarrow said:

123k seems really low? I guess streaming wasn't going to be huge seeing its Spotify performance ("Overpass Graffiti" being the only one outside of the two singles that seem to be doing damage) and most people don't move a ton of physical units in this day and age, but 80k pure sales for Ed Sheeran still surprises me. Or maybe it's not that surprising and I'm just overestimating Ed's selling capabilities? 

No 6. Collaborations Project only sold 70k, so 80k isn't really that surprising from my perspective. 

Equal is failing to outstream No. 6 Collaborations first week, so I wasn't expecting it to really have a chance at selling notably more. 

This is certainly an underperformance from what most people would've expected prior to the era starting though, but the minute the streaming numbers came in it was kind of clear this wasn't going to do notable numbers out the gate. 

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

"=" ~ "-"

[Taylor.]

Decent sales but abysmal streaming.

I'm sure his tour will make bank so he'll be fine.

[spiritboy]

People overestimated his sales in US especially. He might have some huge singles but he was never a huge album seller. If he'll have longevity, it'll be fine.

[Choco]

X ranked #113 on the Greatest of all Time Billboard 200 albums. He's been a consistent seller.

That is imo very bad numbers. The streaming had already lowered my expectations towards 150k...

I kmow they're definitely not on the same place commercially stateside but it gives me reason to think Adele might not meet the overhyped numbers I've seen on this forum. Pure sales are in the gutter.

[spiritboy]

Adele will do more than fine.

Those sales without bundles make me frightened for future albums from our veteran Queens like Madonna, Mariah, Janet, Céline cause without streaming or ticket bundles, they are basically screwed.

[iHype.]

Nov 2, 2021 17:04:30 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

People overestimated his sales in US especially. He might have some huge singles but he was never a huge album seller. If he'll have longevity, it'll be fine.

You have to stop lying.

Only 4 albums have sold more pure sales in U.S. than X, since it was released in 2014. (2 albums from Taylor, 1 from Adele, Guardians of Galaxy)
Only 2 albums have sold more pure sales in U.S. than Divide, since it was released in 2017. (1 album from Taylor, The Greatest Showman)

He was a pretty nice album seller in US seeing as only Taylor/Adele could outsell him the past 7 years. He simply has peaked, sales have eroded big time, and also doesn't have a rabid fanbase to sustain sales like Taylor when facing the prior two things listed. 

Probably a similar situation with Bruno's album sales next era.

[spiritboy]

Nov 2, 2021 17:38:09 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Nov 2, 2021 17:04:30 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

People overestimated his sales in US especially. He might have some huge singles but he was never a huge album seller. If he'll have longevity, it'll be fine.

You have to stop lying.

Only 4 albums have sold more pure sales in U.S. than X, since it was released in 2014. (2 albums from Taylor, 1 from Adele, Guardians of Galaxy)
Only 2 albums have sold more pure sales in U.S. than Divide, since it was released in 2017. (1 album from Taylor, The Greatest Showman)

He was a pretty nice album seller in US seeing as only Taylor/Adele could outsell him the past 7 years. He simply has peaked, sales have eroded big time, and also doesn't have a rabid fanbase to sustain sales like Taylor when facing the prior two things listed. 

Probably a similar situation with Bruno's album sales next era.

Bruno will be fine, he has fans. Ed Sheeran is a GP oriented artist in my opinion, meaning the moment GP is done with him, he'll struggle chart-wise. He'll be fine as long as he can sell tickets though. His eras usually have longevity so that's what i'm hoping for with Equals. And even though some people don't want to admit it, No 6. is a studio album as well and he already started to decline with that one.

[fridayteenage]

taylor & taylor remain the post-bundles queens of being able to push 100k in both sales and streaming points, it appears.

adele will join.

[kierz7]

These numbers are low, and the SEA numbers are even worst.

The ‘Collaborations’ album truly ruined his momentum. 🥴

That said, at least the ‘Mathematics’ tour will most likely become the second highest grossing ever after his own, so he won either way. I guess.

[iHype.]

No. 6 Collaborations has multiple songs with 1 billion streams on Spotify, and has moved similar equivalent units globally as Anti, Thank U Next, Fine Line, and After Hours (ChartMasters has all at 7-8m CSPC units) which are all largely considered successful. How exactly did it ruin his momentum?

No. 6 Collaborations was always seen as a side project/'mixtape', and that's about as much success as you could hope for from a side project.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

I think "=" will have a decent longevity, especially WW. Bad Habits is one of the biggest songs of 2021 and Shivers hit the top 10 in more than 20 countries. He's aware that he won't top his Divide era (aka the most streamed album of all time on both Spotify and YouTube), but I think this album will be a big success if it scores at least one more hit and finishes among the 10 best selling albums of 2022 in the US and top 3 in the UK.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

As a side note, = reportedly did 84k over the weekend in the UK. Could it possibly have better numbers there than in the US? He seems to.have done better there since ÷ came out than in the US.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 2, 2021 20:07:12 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

As a side note, = reportedly did 84k over the weekend in the UK. Could it possibly have better numbers there than in the US? He seems to.have done better there since ÷ came out than in the US.

I'd say yes, 150k in the UK is totally possible. I kinda wish it's 180k, so he can match his 2nd biggest opening there, but I doubt it.

[Au$tin]

The numbers for = would actually place it below the first week AND second week of ÷. The total also falls below the No.6 side project's first week, though = is looking to move more in pure sales than No.6 did.

[kimberly]

Nov 2, 2021 17:33:29 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

Adele will do more than fine.

Adele will do fine, but some on this forum seem to think she has a chance crossing 2 million SPS or even matching 25's numbers... I'm guessing that kind of unreasonable expectation is what Choco is referring to. I still have doubts as to whether she can cross 1 million SPS, she'll probably be in the 800k-1.1m territory.

[SPRΞΞ]

Nov 2, 2021 20:55:04 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Nov 2, 2021 17:33:29 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

Adele will do more than fine.

Adele will do fine, but some on this forum seem to think she has a chance crossing 2 million SPS or even matching 25's numbers... I'm guessing that kind of unreasonable expectation is what Choco is referring to. I still have doubts as to whether she can cross 1 million SPS, she'll probably be in the 800k-1.1m territory.

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 2, 2021 21:09:34 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Nov 2, 2021 20:55:04 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Adele will do fine, but some on this forum seem to think she has a chance crossing 2 million SPS or even matching 25's numbers... I'm guessing that kind of unreasonable expectation is what Choco is referring to. I still have doubts as to whether she can cross 1 million SPS, she'll probably be in the 800k-1.1m territory.

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

we're talking about SPS, so it's Hello's 1,520,000 vs EOM's 540,000 (-64%). If we go by that logic, 30 will sell around 1,250,000 (down by 64% from 25's 3,480,000).

[iHype.]

Nov 2, 2021 17:43:24 GMT -5 spiritboy said:

Nov 2, 2021 17:38:09 GMT -5 iHype. said:

You have to stop lying.

Only 4 albums have sold more pure sales in U.S. than X, since it was released in 2014. (2 albums from Taylor, 1 from Adele, Guardians of Galaxy)
Only 2 albums have sold more pure sales in U.S. than Divide, since it was released in 2017. (1 album from Taylor, The Greatest Showman)

He was a pretty nice album seller in US seeing as only Taylor/Adele could outsell him the past 7 years. He simply has peaked, sales have eroded big time, and also doesn't have a rabid fanbase to sustain sales like Taylor when facing the prior two things listed. 

Probably a similar situation with Bruno's album sales next era.

Bruno will be fine, he has fans. Ed Sheeran is a GP oriented artist in my opinion, meaning the moment GP is done with him, he'll struggle chart-wise. He'll be fine as long as he can sell tickets though. His eras usually have longevity so that's what i'm hoping for with Equals. And even though some people don't want to admit it, No 6. is a studio album as well and he already started to decline with that one.

First week openings:

Bruno 
Doo-Wops & Hooligans - 55k sales
Unorthodox Jukebox - 192k sales
24K Magic - 231k units (194k pure sales)

Ed
+ - 42k sales
X - 210k sales
Divide - 451k units (322k pure sales)


I'm not really even sure how you convinced yourself of that conclusion when Ed's albums historically had higher first week sales, even with Bruno's last 2 being Q4 releases and him being more hits further into his career each release.


Silk Sonic's collaboration album will also 90% likely pull a lower first week than No. 6 Collaborations album. 

[fridayteenage]

looks like since bundles ended last october, 3 non-rapper male albums have opened better:
bts, morgan, & bieber.

[ificanthaveyou]

Nov 2, 2021 21:09:34 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Nov 2, 2021 20:55:04 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Adele will do fine, but some on this forum seem to think she has a chance crossing 2 million SPS or even matching 25's numbers... I'm guessing that kind of unreasonable expectation is what Choco is referring to. I still have doubts as to whether she can cross 1 million SPS, she'll probably be in the 800k-1.1m territory.

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

That’s apples and oranges and you know it. The singles market is completely dead and no one outside of BTS is clearing 100k.

However, physical sales are still kicking and proven by the Taylor’s and Olivia’s and BTS. If Taylor could do almost 800k with folklore and almost 300k with a decade old album, I’m sure Adele with easily clear 1 million plus.

Digital singles are dead, but physical cds/vinyls are becoming a novelty and fans love to collect them, hence they still have selling power.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Nov 2, 2021 21:09:34 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Nov 2, 2021 20:55:04 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Adele will do fine, but some on this forum seem to think she has a chance crossing 2 million SPS or even matching 25's numbers... I'm guessing that kind of unreasonable expectation is what Choco is referring to. I still have doubts as to whether she can cross 1 million SPS, she'll probably be in the 800k-1.1m territory.

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

It was 95 degrees in July and was 45 degrees today. That’s indication right there global warming is a hoax.

[SPRΞΞ]

Nov 2, 2021 23:52:55 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

Nov 2, 2021 21:09:34 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

It was 95 degrees in July and was 45 degrees today. That’s indication right there global warming is a hoax.

not in Florida.

[mikerivera]

Ed Sheeran has always been more about longevity than immediate numbers. He'll be fine

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Nov 2, 2021 21:09:34 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Nov 2, 2021 20:55:04 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Adele will do fine, but some on this forum seem to think she has a chance crossing 2 million SPS or even matching 25's numbers... I'm guessing that kind of unreasonable expectation is what Choco is referring to. I still have doubts as to whether she can cross 1 million SPS, she'll probably be in the 800k-1.1m territory.

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

It's almost like music consumption for pure sales changed entirely since 6 years since Hello debuted

[phieaglesfan712]

Nov 3, 2021 0:42:56 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Nov 2, 2021 23:52:55 GMT -5 Devil Marlena Nylund said:

It was 95 degrees in July and was 45 degrees today. That’s indication right there global warming is a hoax.

not in Florida.

Late nights in the middle of November
Heat waves been faking me out

[fridayteenage]

Nov 2, 2021 23:00:47 GMT -5 ificanthaveyou said:

Nov 2, 2021 21:09:34 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

I mean....didn't the single go from 1.1M first week pure sales with Hello to 90k with Easy on Me? That should be your indication right there.

Digital singles are dead, but physical cds/vinyls are becoming a novelty and fans love to collect them, hence they still have selling power.

per ukmix:
Digital Track Sales 166,437,000
Album Sales 80,978,000

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Additionally, physical albums are almost three-quarters of album sales. And BTS songs are more than 1.6% of the track sales.