HITS 12/10: Adele #1 188k, Taylor #2 81k

[85la]

Dec 8, 2021 6:33:02 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Mentioning that an artist has declined commercially, when there is clear proof of that happening, doesn't mean that their current era is a complete failure. It's like some of you choose to not see the difference in both statements.

The moment someone rightfully states that an artist has declined commercially (something that happens to every artist who reaches a massive commercial peak), some of you come out with your "but... but!" statements and act like anyone is saying said artist is a big, fat commercial failure.

Ed reached a peak with the ÷ era that most artists don't ever reach. It was always going to be hard for him to match that, yet alone top it. I'd hoped the decline would be softer but I can't say I'm surprised and that probably has more to do with the changes in the industry since 2017 and less to do with him losing support between his fans and the GP. It is what it is.

Still, it's very clear that his current album era is a massive decline from the ÷ era. Bad Habits and Shivers remained stable in the top 10 because of radio support. Take that away and the era really has nothing else to fall back on in terms of the success of the music. Of course, he'll have his stadium tour which will break records and do massive numbers but the music itself isn't doing numbers like it once did and there's nothing wrong in pointing that out.

Regardless, Ed will be just fine. There'll be more albums, more singles, more tours and more success in the future.

There's some things I'd like to point out here, because while it's a decline, it isn't as much of a "massive" decline as you're painting it out to be, especially the notion that the singles so far have nothing else to fall back on besides radio, which is simply false. While Bad Habits did the strongest in radio, it also did well in both Streaming and Digital Sales, peaking at #4 and #2 on those lists, respectively, and spending multiple weeks in those lists' top ten, and Shivers' Radio and Streaming peaks so far are actually both #6, while it's Sales peak was #3. Not quite sure why so many people say that radio is almost the sole thing that is propping him up and like to force that narrative on him, when the statistics clearly show otherwise.

Yes, so far, the album consumption numbers are performing at a level much lower than Divide or Multiply, however it is only two months after its release, so we certainly can't make conclusions about the whole era yet, and one measure that Ed is actually beating those eras at is having two solid multi-week top tens two months into the release. When you look at Bad Habit's performance so far, a #2 hit with over 20 weeks in the top 10, it actually rivals Thinking Out Loud's success, thus making it one of his biggest hits, with only Shape of You and Perfect of course doing better.

[thegreatdivine]

85la radio IS propping up Ed's latest top 10 hits. There's nothing wrong in admitting that. Yes, it's also done fairly well on streaming but radio is the main reason why it spent 21 weeks in the top 10. It debuted with 38.8 million airplay audience impressions, 17.7 million streams and 33,200 units sold and quickly surged up radio in the weeks following it's release which kept it stable in the top 10.

This isn't like the ÷ era where his singles also did damage on streaming. He recently got a major update of RIAA certifications and Bad Habits is only certified Platinum after 5 months. That's why you can't just look at weeks spent in the top 10 to determine how big of a hit a song is. Some songs are more fueled by radio than others and will spend more weeks in the top 10 as a result but when the RIAA certifications come in (which is a reflection of actual consumption through streams and sales minus radio), they would have moved far less units than songs which did better on streaming but didn't spend any or as much time in the top 10 because they didn't get as much radio support.

Thinking Out Loud was certified 12x Platinum less than 5 years after it's release. It's probably eligible for 14/15x Platinum certification now. Bad Habits will be lucky to be eligible for 4x Platinum 5 years from now. I don't know how you can possibly compare it to Bad Habits because Bad Habits has spent nearly as many weeks in the top 10.

[85la]

thegreatdivine It seems like you're really trying to play down Bad Habit's success and trying to paint it as "not that big of a hit." Yeah ok, it's not as big as TOL, but it is still DEFINITELY big, and in terms of being on par with TOL, I was referring mainly to the number of weeks in the top 10, and it is statistically his fourth-biggest hit. I think the part of your post I had the most problem with was "Take [radio support] away and the era really has nothing else to fall back on in terms of the success of the music." Ranking at #2 in digital and #4 in streaming isn't nothing. You made it seem as if 90% or more of its points were coming from radio, when in reality it's probably more like 60-70%, so if you were to take away streaming and sales too, it also wouldn't have done nearly as well or possibly even rank in the top 10 at all.

(You also are not addressing Shivers, which although its metric ratios look like they will end up similar to BH's, as I've shown this isn't horribly lopsided, and it's a second multi-week top 10 for him just two months into this album's release, which as I've said before he hasn't done with any of his previous eras).

[thegreatdivine]

85la perhaps I shouldn't have said all he has going for him in his current album era is radio but what I really meant is that radio is what has kept his songs stable, more than usual with his singles.

I mean, Bad Habits is a lead single and it debuted with less than 18M US streams. Let's not even talk about the relentless promotion he did for the song with performances and interviews. Yes, it eventually stabliized but that's still a very poor streaming performance and if not for radio, it would have spent probably just one week in the top 10. Maybe it wouldn't have even reached the top 10.

To me, any song that can spend 20+ weeks in the top 10 should be a 5-10x Platinum hit. When you see songs that spend that much time in the top 10 but struggle to move 4M units in the US, you know their chart runs were very radio-fueled (and there's nothing wrong with that but actually consuming a song through sales/streams will always trump radio for me because radio doesn't always reflect what's being consumed by people).

[spiritboy]

^ So according to your logic Levitating must be a flop because it wasn't 5 or 10 times platinum? :kii:

You guys are acting like radio is the only metric that supported Bad Habits. It did well on streaming considering that sound isn't very US oriented. And he did it without any remixes or features. Times have changed, very few songs reach 5 or 10 platinum these days. If Bad Habits is a flop or underperformance, so are Olivia Rodrigo or Doja Cat singles cause they haven't reached 5 platinum yet.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Yeah this whole conversation is confusing, particularly in a thread about this week’s album sales. :kii:

[pnobelysk]

Dec 10, 2021 3:53:10 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

85la perhaps I shouldn't have said all he has going for him in his current album era is radio but what I really meant is that radio is what has kept his songs stable, more than usual with his singles.

I mean, Bad Habits is a lead single and it debuted with less than 18M US streams. Let's not even talk about the relentless promotion he did for the song with performances and interviews. Yes, it eventually stabliized but that's still a very poor streaming performance and if not for radio, it would have spent probably just one week in the top 10. Maybe it wouldn't have even reached the top 10.

To me, any song that can spend 20+ weeks in the top 10 should be a 5-10x Platinum hit. When you see songs that spend that much time in the top 10 but struggle to move 4M units in the US, you know their chart runs were very radio-fueled (and there's nothing wrong with that but actually consuming a song through sales/streams will always trump radio for me because radio doesn't always reflect what's being consumed by people).

So far bad habits is estimated to be the 8th best selling song of the year for pure sales (and expected to go higher on that list).

[thegreatdivine]

spiritboy you keep putting words in my mouth. I never used the word "flop" or "underperformance" once in my entire post. I said TO ME, a song with 20+ weeks in the top 10 which doesn't end up being certified 5-10x Platinum is RADIO-FUELED and I added that there's nothing wrong with that but that ME, I, MYSELF place more value on songs that were actually willfully consumed via streams/sales, as opposed to songs that were mostly fueled by radio during their chart runs. You're more than free to not see things that way. It really doesn't have to be a debate. I'm just sharing how I feel about songs and the metrics that power their chart runs.

pnobelysk being the 8th best-selling song in a year and time when sales are in the gutter isn't saying much but okay. That's some sort of win, I guess, considering the many singles that were released this year.

[spiritboy]

Anyway, people use the word "too much and loosely" on forums. For me, a flop is what happened to Alessia Cara with her latest album. Of course every artist has different standarts of success but not entering BB 200 is horrible no matter what.

[85la]

Dec 10, 2021 10:27:42 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

spiritboy you keep putting words in my mouth. I never used the word "flop" or "underperformance" once in my entire post. I said TO ME, a song with 20+ weeks in the top 10 which doesn't end up being certified 5-10x Platinum is RADIO-FUELED and I added that there's nothing wrong with that but that ME, I, MYSELF place more value on songs that were actually willfully consumed via streams/sales, as opposed to songs that were mostly fueled by radio during their chart runs. You're more than free to not see things that way. It really doesn't have to be a debate. I'm just sharing how I feel about songs and the metrics that power their chart runs.

Responding both to this and your previous post to me.

Fair enough, and I don't disagree with you in there being a greater element of consumer choice with streaming and sales, however you do bring up a good point in the fact that RIAA certs don't include radio, so you can't use that as a definitive measurement for a song's success, whether or not one agrees with the legitimacy of that success.

I also have found it that, not so much you in particular, but many people are quick to play up or play down radio's effect based on whether they like that particular song or artist. For example, Ariana's singles from Positions were also heavily radio-fueled compared to her previous eras, yet I rarely see people mention or complain about this. Or thinking back to the 90s, comparing certain songs such as My Heart Will Go On, No Scrubs, or Kiss From a Rose (all of which only went gold) to other songs that went 3X platinum or higher, such as Whoomp! There It Is, Gangsta's Paradise, or I'll Be Missing You, I'm sure not too many people would consider the gold songs to be flops or underperformers compared to the multi-platinum ones (and certainly not much less memorable, but that's another argument). With the exception of MHWGO, all of both the gold and multi-platinum songs ranked in the Year-End top 5, the gold ones managing to do so simply because they had much more airplay.

[strongerq]

hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming

LW	TW	Artist	Title	Label	Total	Change	Albums	TEA	SEA
1	1	ADELE	30	COLUMBIA	187,522	-34%	141,161	1,516	44,845
2	2	TAYLOR SWIFT	RED (TAYLOR'S VERSION)	REPUBLIC	80,634	-21%	36,799	533	43,302
--	3	POLO G	HALL OF FAME	COLUMBIA	77,778	--	775	847	76,157
3	4	MICHAEL BUBLE	CHRISTMAS	REPRISE	62,873	6%	13,334	855	48,684
5	5	OLIVIA RODRIGO	SOUR	GEFFEN	51,162	18%	17,201	468	33,493
6	6	MORGAN WALLEN	DANGEROUS: THE DOUBLE ALBUM	BIG LOUD/REPUBLIC	47,899	16%	1,931	860	45,108
4	7	DRAKE	CERTIFIED LOVER BOY	OVO/REPUBLIC	46,662	4%	279	426	45,957
14	8	MARIAH CAREY	MERRY CHRISTMAS	COLUMBIA	41,764	30%	7,500	1,311	32,953
12	9	DOJA CAT	PLANET HER	KEMOSABE/RCA	40,011	22%	441	828	38,742
15	10	VINCE GUARALDI TRIO	CHARLIE BROWN CHRISTMAS	CONCORD	38,254	22%	14,879	349	23,025
10	11	NAT KING COLE	CHRISTMAS SONG	CAPITOL	38,056	11%	4,964	426	32,666
9	12	THE WEEKND	THE HIGHLIGHTS	XO/REPUBLIC	36,518	6%	3,073	584	32,861
8	13	SUMMER WALKER	STILL OVER IT	LVRN/INTERSCOPE	35,020	-4%	1,035	275	33,710
17	14	PENTATONIX	THE BEST OF PENTATONIX CHRISTMAS	RCA	33,481	20%	7,414	860	25,207
13	15	ED SHEERAN	=	ATLANTIC	33,020	3%	9,269	2,559	21,193
16	16	PHIL SPECTOR	CHRISTMAS GIFT FOR YOU	LEGACY	32,887	10%	452	199	32,237
7	17	BRUNO MARS, ANDERSON .PAAK & SILK SONIC	AN EVENING WITH SILK SONIC	AFTERMATH/ATLANTIC	30,883	-15%	9,267	748	20,868
19	18	ANDY WILLIAMS	CHRISTMAS ALBUM	COLUMBIA	30,265	14%	639	284	29,342
18	19	BING CROSBY	CHRISTMAS CLASSICS	CAPITOL	30,077	11%	3,962	467	25,647
--	20	NARDO WICK	WHO IS NARDO WICK?	FLAWLESS/RCA	28,876	--	5,686	170	23,020
11	21	BILLIE EILISH	HAPPIER THAN EVER	DARKROOM/INTERSCOPE	27,986	-17%	11,265	198	16,523
41	22	KELLY CLARKSON	WHEN CHRISTMAS COMES AROUND...	ATLANTIC	26,511	49%	14,999	1,256	10,256
24	23	THE KID LAROI	F*CK LOVE	COLUMBIA	24,126	9%	70	430	23,626
34	24	BURL IVES	RUDOLPH THE RED-NOSED REINDEER	INTERSCOPE	23,580	20%	1,271	332	21,977
27	25	LIL NAS X	MONTERO	COLUMBIA	23,000	5%	180	527	22,293
22	26	HARRY STYLES	FINE LINE	COLUMBIA	22,650	-4%	11,339	144	11,168
36	27	CARRIE UNDERWOOD	MY GIFT	CAPITOL NASHVILLE	22,615	19%	12,642	415	9,557
35	28	FRANK SINATRA	ULTIMATE CHRISTMAS	CAPITOL	21,901	12%	2,308	278	19,315
20	29	BEATLES	LET IT BE	CAPITOL	21,691	-10%	13,676	697	7,318
28	30	LUKE COMBS	WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET	RIVER HOUSE/COLUMBIA NASHVILLE	21,616	0%	2,326	494	18,796
26	31	KANYE WEST	DONDA	G.O.O.D./DEF JAM	21,183	-4%	161	233	20,789
39	32	BRENDA LEE	ROCKIN' AROUND THE CHRISTMAS TREE	MCA NASHVILLE	21,125	15%	278	720	20,127
46	33	KELLY CLARKSON	WRAPPED IN RED	RCA	20,870	25%	3,236	575	17,059
31	34	YOUNGBOY NEVER BROKE AGAIN	SINCERELY, KENTRELL	NEVER BROKE AGAIN/ATLANTIC	19,974	-5%	313	180	19,482
33	35	ROD WAVE	SOULFLY	ALAMO/SME	19,895	1%	123	97	19,675
49	36	JUICE WRLD	LEGENDS NEVER DIE	GRADE A/INTERSCOPE	19,693	24%	812	87	18,794
37	37	POP SMOKE	SHOOT FOR THE STARS AIM FOR THE MOON	VICTOR VICTOR/REPUBLIC	19,627	6%	644	160	18,823
21	38	TAYLOR SWIFT	EVERMORE	REPUBLIC	19,437	-18%	8,586	75	10,777
40	39	LIL BABY	MY TURN	QUALITY CONTROL/MOTOWN/CAPITOL	18,790	5%	264	166	18,360
44	40	JUSTIN BIEBER	JUSTICE	RBMG/DEF JAM	18,722	7%	1,983	406	16,332
--	41	GENE AUTRY	RUDOLPH THE RED NOSED REINDEER	COLUMBIA/LEGACY	18,469	--	253	184	18,032
38	42	BEATLES	ABBEY ROAD	CAPITOL	18,319	-1%	11,456	311	6,553
--	43	BOBBY HELMS	THE BEST OF BOBBY HELMS	INTERSCOPE	18,228	--	1	313	17,913
45	44	MONEYBAGG YO	A GANGSTA'S PAIN	CMG/N-LESS/INTERSCOPE	18,016	5%	179	374	17,463
--	45	JUICE WRLD	GOODBYE & GOOD RIDDANCE	GRADE A/INTERSCOPE	17,475	--	338	75	17,061
--	46	KHALID	SCENIC DRIVE	RIGHT HAND MUSIC/RCA	17,421	--	2,483	453	14,485
--	47	DUA LIPA	FUTURE NOSTALGIA	WARNER	17,301	--	1,324	498	15,479
--	48	POST MALONE	HOLLYWOOD'S BLEEDING	REPUBLIC	17,111	--	436	216	16,459
42	49	TAYLOR SWIFT	FOLKLORE	REPUBLIC	17,061	-3%	5,514	86	11,462
23	50	QUEEN	GREATEST HITS 1	HOLLYWOOD	17,045	-24%	5,481	418	11,146

[thegreatdivine]

85la fair enough. There are definitely different ways to look at the success of a song based on what metrics you deem more significant. I generally regard streams/sales as a more significant metric of consumption in comparison to radio (especially in recent years) but that doesn't mean radio is insignificant or irrelevant.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

Dec 10, 2021 15:10:12 GMT -5 85la said:

Dec 10, 2021 10:27:42 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

spiritboy you keep putting words in my mouth. I never used the word "flop" or "underperformance" once in my entire post. I said TO ME, a song with 20+ weeks in the top 10 which doesn't end up being certified 5-10x Platinum is RADIO-FUELED and I added that there's nothing wrong with that but that ME, I, MYSELF place more value on songs that were actually willfully consumed via streams/sales, as opposed to songs that were mostly fueled by radio during their chart runs. You're more than free to not see things that way. It really doesn't have to be a debate. I'm just sharing how I feel about songs and the metrics that power their chart runs.

Responding both to this and your previous post to me.

Fair enough, and I don't disagree with you in there being a greater element of consumer choice with streaming and sales, however you do bring up a good point in the fact that RIAA certs don't include radio, so you can't use that as a definitive measurement for a song's success, whether or not one agrees with the legitimacy of that success.

I also have found it that, not so much you in particular, but many people are quick to play up or play down radio's effect based on whether they like that particular song or artist. For example, Ariana's singles from Positions were also heavily radio-fueled compared to her previous eras, yet I rarely see people mention or complain about this. Or thinking back to the 90s, comparing certain songs such as My Heart Will Go On, No Scrubs, or Kiss From a Rose (all of which only went gold) to other songs that went 3X platinum or higher, such as Whoomp! There It Is, Gangsta's Paradise, or I'll Be Missing You, I'm sure not too many people would consider the gold songs to be flops or underperformers compared to the multi-platinum ones (and certainly not much less memorable, but that's another argument). With the exception of MHWGO, all of both the gold and multi-platinum songs ranked in the Year-End top 5, the gold ones managing to do so simply because they had much more airplay.

To make it even more challenging, examples from the 90s often depended on the actions of the label. So for example, single sales for My Heart Will Go On were limited because the label suppressed the single and only made so many copies available so it might be a case where it could have sold more for longer but didn’t because of availability. So often times (especially in the 90s), radio was the best measure for how big a song was. Nowadays, we rely less on radio to tell us how big a song is, especially when people can just stream what they (think they) want. So if a song doesn’t do as well on streaming as on radio, there’s an assumption that radio is propping a song up, which suggests the song isn’t that much in demand. It’s a logical point but I’m still not convinced that radio audiences = streaming audiences enough to assume that radio success is basically akin to empty calories.

[Forever Winter]

The thing is a radio hit is objectively known by more people than a streaming hit. Easy on Me has 102.74M audience on radio in the US only. On the other hand, the most listened artist on Global Spotify has 85m monthly listeners. Once you add up all the streaming platforms, the most listened artist globally has at most 140M listeners and obviously not all of those listeners are listening to one song. So it all really depends on how you view a hit. Are you focusing on popularity or revenue? etc... 

[jodakyellow]

Dec 10, 2021 16:21:40 GMT -5 Forever Winter said:

The thing is a radio hit is objectively known by more people than a streaming hit. Easy on Me has 102.74M audience on radio in the US only. On the other hand, the most listened artist on Global Spotify has 85m monthly listeners. Once you add up all the streaming platforms, the most listened artist globally has at most 140M listeners and obviously not all of those listeners are listening to one song. So it all really depends on how you view a hit. Are you focusing on popularity or revenue? etc... 

I mean, radio audience isn't a measure of popularity or even awareness... really just exposure. If popularity is "how much do people, taken in aggregate as a collective, like this song?", idk how you'd even begin to measure that.

[fridayteenage]

another t5 week for olivia? oh wow.

[ampersand]

Great increase for Kelly!

[Envoirment]

Nice to see Adele slightly higher than prediction. Hopefully she'll be a bit higher on the official billboard chart!

[NeRD]

Nice to see Doja Cat back into the Top 10.

[jenglisbe]

Dec 10, 2021 16:21:40 GMT -5 Forever Winter said:

The thing is a radio hit is objectively known by more people than a streaming hit. Easy on Me has 102.74M audience on radio in the US only. On the other hand, the most listened artist on Global Spotify has 85m monthly listeners. Once you add up all the streaming platforms, the most listened artist globally has at most 140M listeners and obviously not all of those listeners are listening to one song. So it all really depends on how you view a hit. Are you focusing on popularity or revenue? etc... 

But a 102.74 million audience doesn't mean 102.74 million different people. Many of the impressions in that total are the same people who heard the song multiple times throughout the week.

[Forever Winter]

Dec 11, 2021 14:58:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 10, 2021 16:21:40 GMT -5 Forever Winter said:

The thing is a radio hit is objectively known by more people than a streaming hit. Easy on Me has 102.74M audience on radio in the US only. On the other hand, the most listened artist on Global Spotify has 85m monthly listeners. Once you add up all the streaming platforms, the most listened artist globally has at most 140M listeners and obviously not all of those listeners are listening to one song. So it all really depends on how you view a hit. Are you focusing on popularity or revenue? etc... 

But a 102.74 million audience doesn't mean 102.74 million different people. Many of the impressions in that total are the same people who heard the song multiple times throughout the week.

Noted. Then the total must be much lower (Ignoring of course, multiple listeners in a car)   

[kimberly]

Dec 11, 2021 14:58:22 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Dec 10, 2021 16:21:40 GMT -5 Forever Winter said:

The thing is a radio hit is objectively known by more people than a streaming hit. Easy on Me has 102.74M audience on radio in the US only. On the other hand, the most listened artist on Global Spotify has 85m monthly listeners. Once you add up all the streaming platforms, the most listened artist globally has at most 140M listeners and obviously not all of those listeners are listening to one song. So it all really depends on how you view a hit. Are you focusing on popularity or revenue? etc... 

But a 102.74 million audience doesn't mean 102.74 million different people. Many of the impressions in that total are the same people who heard the song multiple times throughout the week.

^ this. "Easy on Me" comes on the radio like every 30 minutes lol. so a person that listens to radio on their 90-minute commute to work would have heard it at least 15 times in a week.

radio audience impressions are nothing more than estimates. that's why they get recalibrated every now and then to make the numbers more accurate, and that's why all-genre radio songs chart-toppers can barely cross 100 million AI when songs like "Irreplaceable" and "Blurred Lines" were doing numbers north of 200 million at their peaks. radio is a dying metric, much like sales, in the current age of streaming and Bluetooth entertainment systems in cars. 

though I agree with Devil Marlena Nylund, why is this conversation happening in the album sales thread when radio has absolutely no relevance to these numbers?