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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 9, 2023 14:45:17 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=337515&title=O-ROD-V-LEAD-NEW-RELEASESSaturday, September 9, 2023 O-ROD, V LEAD NEW RELEASESOlivia Rodrigo's sophomore album, GUTS (Geffen), will debut at #1 on Friday's HITS Top 50. On-demand audio streams are tracking to a first week total of 170-190m. BTS' V is aiming for 100k with his 6-track solo EP, Layover (BIGHIT/Geffen). Olivia Rodrigo (Geffen) 250-265k V (BIGHIT/Geffen) 90-100k
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Sept 9, 2023 14:59:13 GMT -5
she's making up for the streaming decline quite nicely with sales.
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rnb
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Post by rnb on Sept 9, 2023 15:36:52 GMT -5
expected a bit better from her tbh but this is still good!
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 11, 2023 15:13:28 GMT -5
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jeiboy
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Post by jeiboy on Sept 11, 2023 16:17:25 GMT -5
285k+
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Sept 11, 2023 16:55:27 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success).
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 11, 2023 17:02:37 GMT -5
Since Sour had 72k pure sales and 300.73 million on-demand streams for a total of 295k SPS, it appears that for Guts, its share of pure sales will be much greater than for the former.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Sept 11, 2023 17:09:20 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success). well, billie went from 313 to 238. |
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musiclife
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Post by musiclife on Sept 11, 2023 17:10:59 GMT -5
Don't forget she is doing the VMAs performing and could win some awards. I say she does 300k+ if the VMAs goes well.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Sept 11, 2023 17:19:11 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success). Difference is her debut era smashed out the gate on release. Majority of artists with huge debut albums had rather soft/weak openings, then they progressed to be huge sellers overtime (Taylor, Mariah, Whitney, Gaga, Alanis, Madonna, etc). Driver License broke first week records and SOUR also annihilated streaming records upon release. Those numbers would've been career peaks even for many established A/B-listers. When someone smashes immediately on arrival with their debut era, the sophomore usually has a hard time being able to match that start. Nicki's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Billie's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Susan Boyle's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Ashanti's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, etc. Those are all the females that come to mind in prior years who started with huge numbers out the gate on their debuts. Basically the peak momentum artists usually get after their breakthrough is what she already experienced during her debut. |
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Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ
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Post by Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ on Sept 11, 2023 19:05:26 GMT -5
Idk, I'm more than happy with those numbers (expected around 250k), matching SOUR's opening week without huge hits like DL or G4U is amazing. With 300k she would move more units than recent albums by Kendrick Lamar, J. Cole, Bad Bunny, Bieber, Billie Eilish, The Weeknd, Lil Baby and just below Donda and SOS.
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Eloqueen™
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Sept 11, 2023 19:11:56 GMT -5
Just to be clear, I wasn't saying the album is a flop or isn't a success, just that it didn't hit my own personal expectation (which was around 350k). Her debut era *was* massive which is exactly why I expected a stronger showing. Now I didn't pay close attention to what her streaming figures first week were the first time relative to sales to discern whether or not it was impossible to match or exceed, just was aware of her debut's opening week and expected maybe a 50k or so bump in performance. That's all (didn't think that was unreasonable to imagine). It's still solid regardless (obviously). lol
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Post by kimberly on Sept 11, 2023 19:19:54 GMT -5
this is not the pre-streaming era, when gaining more fans almost always translated into bigger album debuts, because more people were buying your albums. there was a direct correlation there.
currently, a fan would need to stream GUTS in its entirety 100 times for it to be close to (but still not enough for) 1 album unit. 💀
this automatically weighs down streaming era artists, who accumulate streaming fanbases. if 1 million fans each stream the album once, you debut with 9,600 units (or less if some use free streaming). if they all buy a copy of your album, the number skyrockets to 1 million units.
Olivia nearly matching her debut album, which had two monster smashes, and being able to convert her streaming base into album buyers is pretty impressive.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 11, 2023 23:00:34 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success). Difference is her debut era smashed out the gate on release. Majority of artists with huge debut albums had rather soft/weak openings, then they progressed to be huge sellers overtime (Taylor, Mariah, Whitney, Gaga, Alanis, Madonna, etc). Driver License broke first week records and SOUR also annihilated streaming records upon release. Those numbers would've been career peaks even for many established A/B-listers. When someone smashes immediately on arrival with their debut era, the sophomore usually has a hard time being able to match that start. Nicki's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Billie's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Susan Boyle's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Ashanti's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, etc. Those are all the females that come to mind in prior years who started with huge numbers out the gate on their debuts. Basically the peak momentum artists usually get after their breakthrough is what she already experienced during her debut. I would say you'd have more of a point if her debut's first week was much larger, however 295k isn't so huge of a number that it can't be easily improved upon by at least a bit.
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fridayteenage
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Post by fridayteenage on Sept 11, 2023 23:22:31 GMT -5
Sour sold quite well.
2021 557k, #3 for the year
2022 354k, #4 for the year
=911k
HDD estimate for 2023 so far: 77k
=988k.
Should hit a million by, mmm, Halloween?
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Sept 12, 2023 1:52:21 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success). I don’t think the “drama” with Taylor and the negative impact it’s had on Swifties perception of her has helped her at all. Taylor and Olivia should have a lot of crossover fans but some Swifties actively want her to fail… |
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Post by Eloqueen™ on Sept 12, 2023 2:03:19 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success). I don’t think the “drama” with Taylor and the negative impact it’s had on Swifties perception of her has helped her at all. Taylor and Olivia should have a lot of crossover fans but some Swifties actively want her to fail… Well that's ridiculous. I doubt their little beef actually had any significant impact on her performance and those who want Olivia to fail and/or chose not to buy or stream her album because she isn't adorning Taylor with adoration are ridiculously immature and are missing out on a great body of work. |
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Post by andrebra on Sept 12, 2023 7:36:32 GMT -5
Ngl I was expecting a reasonably stronger opening than Sour (as typically one would want projects to trend upward with monumental success). I don’t think the “drama” with Taylor and the negative impact it’s had on Swifties perception of her has helped her at all. Taylor and Olivia should have a lot of crossover fans but some Swifties actively want her to fail… Maybe for critically online people but I guarantee the majority of people don’t give a shit about this |
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Post by iHype. on Sept 12, 2023 7:50:00 GMT -5
Difference is her debut era smashed out the gate on release. Majority of artists with huge debut albums had rather soft/weak openings, then they progressed to be huge sellers overtime (Taylor, Mariah, Whitney, Gaga, Alanis, Madonna, etc). Driver License broke first week records and SOUR also annihilated streaming records upon release. Those numbers would've been career peaks even for many established A/B-listers. When someone smashes immediately on arrival with their debut era, the sophomore usually has a hard time being able to match that start. Nicki's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Billie's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Susan Boyle's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, Ashanti's sophomore album opened lower than her debut album, etc. Those are all the females that come to mind in prior years who started with huge numbers out the gate on their debuts. Basically the peak momentum artists usually get after their breakthrough is what she already experienced during her debut. I would say you'd have more of a point if her debut's first week was much larger, however 295k isn't so huge of a number that it can't be easily improved upon by at least a bit.
How many other female artists are doing over 295k first week in 2023? |
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Post by larrydmusic on Sept 12, 2023 8:17:07 GMT -5
Great opening week for Olivia. In the next couple of months, we will see if Guts has longevity. At this point, it is the most important goal for this album. If it stays in the top ten until Christmas, it will be quite a success. If it stays in the top ten until the Grammys, it will be a huge success.
"Jagged little pill" was the "Sour" of the 90s. Its follow-up "Supposed former infatuation junkie" was an instant smash with 469,000 copies sold in the first week, a record for a female act at the time. Unfortunately, "Junkie" didn't have longevity. It was number 1 for 2 weeks, then it slipped to number 8 during its third week and quickly left the top ten during its fourth week. It lingered in the top 50 for a couple of months, but never returned to the top ten.
Between 1995 and 1997, "Jagged little pill" sold 28 million copies worldwide, including 16 million in the United States. Between 1998 and 2000, "Junkie" sold 7 million copies combined, including 3 million copies in the United States. Some called it a sophomore slump, some didn't.
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pnobelysk
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Post by pnobelysk on Sept 12, 2023 8:21:02 GMT -5
Sour sold quite well. 2021 557k, #3 for the year 2022 354k, #4 for the year =911k HDD estimate for 2023 so far: 77k =988k. Should hit a million by, mmm, Halloween? I try to track some sales the best I can I appreciate this updated number for sour. By any chance do you have the pure sales for lover? |
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Sept 12, 2023 8:31:10 GMT -5
Calling Jagged Little Pill the Sour of the 1990s is greatly downplaying the massive popularity and impact of the album and the era. If it’s the closest we have (and it probably is), sure, but JLP wqs absolutely massive.
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larrydmusic
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Post by larrydmusic on Sept 12, 2023 8:46:13 GMT -5
Calling Jagged Little Pill the Sour of the 1990s is greatly downplaying the massive popularity and impact of the album and the era. If it’s the closest we have (and it probably is), sure, but JLP wqs absolutely massive. I totally agree! I was just trying to provide an example for fans who aren't old enough to have lived through the JLP era. JLP was an absolute monster and unless someone lived through it, they can't even begin to imagine how massive it was. With that said, I think Alanis herself considers Olivia as her younger version. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 12, 2023 16:23:05 GMT -5
With Olivia performing at the VMAs tonight, Guts should top 300k SPS for the week:
Tuesday, September 12, 2023
With GUTS (Geffen), Olivia Rodrigo will score her second #1 debut on the HITS Top 50. The sophomore set is currently projected at 295k. Will it break 300k by Thursday night, when the chart week closes?
Meanwhile, BTS’ V will open at #2 with his solo EP, Layover (BIGHIT/Geffen).
Also headed for a Top 10 debut is Tyler Childers’ Rustin’ in the Rain (Hickman Holler/RCA).
Now, if you’ll excuse us, our post-lunch snack awaits.
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Post by kimberly on Sept 12, 2023 16:27:19 GMT -5
so she might beat SOUR after all. incredible.  |
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Sept 12, 2023 17:10:48 GMT -5
Oh look at Tyler I know that's right!
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85la
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Post by 85la on Sept 12, 2023 17:12:04 GMT -5
I would say you'd have more of a point if her debut's first week was much larger, however 295k isn't so huge of a number that it can't be easily improved upon by at least a bit.
How many other female artists are doing over 295k first week in 2023? Not too many besides Taylor (by a large margin though), but, how does that refute my point or preclude her from beating that number this time? You could also argue that because she was able to debut so highly with her debut alone, and since she maintained that level of hype and stardom for the entire era, it would be especially expected that she could easily beat that number with her sophomore effort by at least a little bit, especially when that debut number wasn't at all too gargantuan or insurmountable to begin with. Regardless of many of the other artists' debuts you mentioned not smashing immediately, many of their sophomore sets were easily able to open with comparatively much higher numbers (Taylor with 600k and both Gaga and Britney with 1 mil+ no less). I wouldn't have expected Olivia to open with anywhere near 1 million, but 350-400k+ in 2023 isn't at all unreasonable or outlandish. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 12, 2023 17:58:07 GMT -5
Regarding Guts' first weeks numbers look less impressive if you take into account that unlike Sour, it actually does have vinyl available. That format should account for most of its pure sales.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Sept 12, 2023 18:12:11 GMT -5
How many other female artists are doing over 295k first week in 2023? Not too many besides Taylor (by a large margin though), but, how does that refute my point or preclude her from beating that number this time? You could also argue that because she was able to debut so highly with her debut alone, and since she maintained that level of hype and stardom for the entire era, it would be especially expected that she could easily beat that number with her sophomore effort by at least a little bit, especially when that debut number wasn't at all too gargantuan or insurmountable to begin with. Regardless of many of the other artists' debuts you mentioned not smashing immediately, many of their sophomore sets were easily able to open with comparatively much higher numbers (Taylor with 600k and both Gaga and Britney with 1 mil+ no less). I wouldn't have expected Olivia to open with anywhere near 1 million, but 350-400k+ in 2023 isn't at all unreasonable or outlandish. 1. You said 295k isn’t that high of a number… but can only name 1 other female artist capable of doing that number currently. Clearly it is a high number today. 2. Why are you comparing raw openings artists pulled in the years 2000 and 2011? Clearly you are treading into delusional territory to pull up the numbers Britney did. We are in 2023. Find a recent sophomore effort that pulled similar opening numbers. 3. It was already mentioned streaming wise, Sour *did* pull absolutely huge opening numbers. It broke various female streaming records. So yes, it was an extremely hard benchmark set to surpass when your debut’s opening was already record breaking numbers. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Sept 12, 2023 18:25:30 GMT -5
^Don't forget SZA's 318k for SOS. That said, it seems you forgot about Adele for #1. But I do agree the number of female artists that have been capable of at least 295k SPS in their album's debut weeks consistently can be counted with the fingers in one hand.
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