CMA Prediction Game

[tsharky]

I put a star next to who I think will win-- but not necessarily who I want to win in every case. I want Keith or Carrie to win entertainer-but it will never happen. lol I just hope Carrie gets a nomination for entertainer- it would make me so happy. Miranda's album could have won- but it is not eligible, I do not believe.

Entertainer of the Year

Kenny Chesney*
Brad Paisley
Rascal Flatts
Keith Urban
Carrie Underwood

Male Vocalist of the Year
George Strait
Brad Paisley*
Kenny Chesney
Keith Urban
Alan Jackson

Female Vocalist of the Year

Carrie Underwood*
Taylor Swift
Miranda Lambert
Reba McEntire
Trisha Yearwood

Horizon Award

Rodney Atkins*
Ashton Shephard
Chuck Wicks
Lady Antebellum
Kellie Pickler

Vocal Group of the Year
Rascal Flatts*
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Emerson Drive
Lost Trailers

Vocal Duo of the Year
Brooks & Dunn
Sugarland*
Montgomery Gentry
Big and Rich
Halfway to Hazard

Single of the Year
Last Name - Carrie Underwood
"I Saw God Today" - George Strait
Stay-- Sugarland*
Our Song-- Taylor Swift
"You're Gonna Miss This" - Trace Adkins

Song of the Year
"Better as a Memory" - Kenny Chesney
All American Girl - Carrie Underwood
Small Town Southern Man-- Alan JAckson
"I Saw God Today" - George Strait
"Stay" - Sugarland*

Album of the Year
George Strait - Troubadour
Alan Jackson - Good Time*
Kenny Chesney - Who I Am: Poets and Pirates
Carrie Underwood-- Carnival Ride
Trisha Yearwood


Musical Event of the Year
"Life in a Northern Town" - Suglarland, Little Big Town and Jake Owen************************ this HAS to win
"Every Other Weekend" - Reba McEntire/Kenny Chesney
"Shiftwork" - Kenny Chesney/George Strait
"Home" - Blake Shelton/Miranda LAmbert
"Another Try" - Josh Turner/Trisha Yearwood

Music Video of the Year
Brad Paisley - "Waitin' on a Woman"
Carrie Underwood - "Last Name"
Kenny Chesney - "Don't Blink"
Sugarland - "Stay" *
Alan Jackson- Small Town Southern Man

[tsharky]

Aug 9, 2008 15:45:37 GMT -5 @carriefan0209 said:

Sugarlands album isnt eligible since it was released after the cutoff date...but other than that it looks pretty good!

I don't think miranda lambert's album is eligible either- it was eligible last year, and they passed onit. I believe it was released prior tothe cut off date.

EDIT: Miranda Lambert released her album on May 1, 2007, so it is too old to be eligible this year, as is taylor swift's album as well. the cut off was July 1, 2007--- June 30, 2008, to be eligible.

[tsharky]

You guys all forgot about rodney atkins for horizon award. He wasnominated last year but you get 2 bites at the apple for this. He will get another nomination for sure. He got like 8 nominations at the ACMS. lol

Personally I am rooting for LAdy antebellum.

[zaclord]

i don't know if Rodney will count or not. because it was 2006 he really took off so i think they might have passed on him that year and then nominated last year. because someone who has been big for 3 years now, doesn't deserve to be nominated in their 3rd year.

[Lee]

I would really like to see Miranda come out on top in the Female Vocalist Category, despite it being obvious that commercially she has not matched the success of Underwood/Swift.

[Stephen]

Astericks (*) indicate the one who I think will win.

Entertainer of the Year

Kenny Chesney*
Brad Paisley
Rascal Flatts
Keith Urban
Carrie Underwood

Chesney will win because he has had a big year with hit singles and a successful tour. That is EXACTLY why Underwood should get a nomination. I think she'll have to wait a year or two to be considered for the win, though.

Male Vocalist of the Year

George Strait
Brad Paisley
Kenny Chesney*
Keith Urban
Alan Jackson

Same reasons as above, although I can see Brad, and maybe even Keith, taking this from him.

Female Vocalist of the Year

Carrie Underwood*
Taylor Swift
Miranda Lambert
Reba McEntire
Trisha Yearwood

Yes, Miranda has a critically acclaimed album and her first top 10 hit, but vocally, sales-wise, chart-wise, and tour-wise (is she even on tour?) Carrie wins. If Carrie doesn't win this award I'll be mad because she deserves it, but I'll get over it since Miranda's cool.

Horizon Award

Rodney Atkins
Ashton Shephard
Chuck Wicks
Lady Antebellum*
Kellie Pickler

Personally, I'd give it to Wicks since I think he has the best songs of the bunch, but I think Lady A will get it since they have an album that is being praised. Plus, they are the first duo to debut at #1 on the country chart, or something like that.

Vocal Group of the Year

Rascal Flatts*
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Emerson Drive
Lost Trailers

Don't act like you don't expect this too.

Vocal Duo of the Year

Brooks & Dunn
Sugarland*
Montgomery Gentry
Big and Rich

Sugarland had "Stay." Enough said.

Single of the Year

"So Small" - Carrie Underwood
"Better As A Memory" - Kenny Chesney
"Stay" - Sugarland*
"Our Song" - Taylor Swift
"You're Gonna Miss This" - Trace Adkins

"Stay" deserves it. I love Carrie though, so if she wins, WOO! But she won't, and I'm ok with that.

Song of the Year

"Better as a Memory" - Kenny Chesney
"So Small" - Carrie Underwood
"Small Town Southern Man" - Alan JAckson
"Our Song" - Taylor Swift
"Stay" - Sugarland*

See above.

Album of the Year

George Strait - Troubadour
Alan Jackson - Good Time
Kenny Chesney - Who I Am: Poets and Pirates
Carrie Underwood - Carnival Ride
Trisha Yearwood

I honestly have NO idea who's win this. I really don't. I'm rooting for Carrie though.

Musical Event of the Year

"Life in a Northern Town" - Suglarland, Little Big Town and Jake Owen
"Every Other Weekend" - Reba McEntire/Kenny Chesney*
"Shiftwork" - Kenny Chesney/George Strait
"Home" - Blake Shelton/Miranda LAmbert
"Another Try" - Josh Turner/Trisha Yearwood

If "Every Other Weekend" doesn't win, I'll shoot somebody. It's a great song.

Music Video of the Year

"Waitin' On A Woman" - Brad Paisley
"So Small" - Carrie Underwood
"Picture to Burn" - Taylor Swift
"Stay" - Sugarland*
"Good Time" - Alan Jackson

Sugarland should win, but that Alan Jackson video had the stupid line dance, so yeah.

[Zach]

Am I the only one who thinks Taylor may possibly might just maybe has a chance probably will should could perhaps will win Female Vocalist?

[tsharky]

^ I don't think The CMA voters will give female vocalist to someone based on sales unless they are also a stellar vocalist== since the CMA's seem to be much more picky in their selections, and generally favor traditional music and artists. Carrie and Faith Hill are sort of exceptions to the rule- since they are both contemporary country, not traditional=- yet they have such great voices that they deserve to be recognized. But I still think that it will be between Carrie and Miranda for many reasons-- vocal skills just one of them.

The list of past winners of the CMA for female vocalist is very distinguished-- and not one lady on that list is anything less than a master vocalist= the best of the best. Sales are not the deciding factor--- since the voters look at overall live "vocal performances" as it is one of the CMA criteria set forth in the rules, among other criteria. Live performances are Carrie's strength, vocally-- so that gives her the edge. REba iand Leanne Rimes, Trisha, etc-- are also stellar every single time-- but they didn't have as big a year as Carrie.

[Zach]

^Well if it's not based on sales and success then I guess, IMO, LeAnn Rimes will win because, again IMO, she's the best vocalist.

But unfortunately, it does not work that way. Money talks in this day and time and the CMAs are often unusual so I don't think it would be out of the ordinary if Taylor won. I know there are many Carrie fans here and I like her too, but she will not always win. There are many other deserving artists out there.

[tsharky]

^ true---- money and behind the scenes politics has a lot to do with this stuff-- you are right. For that reason miranda could definetly win as well since she seems to be the critics favorite this year-- and her album is great. But so is carrie's, leanne's, trisha's, reba's, lol. It is a tough close call this year. No one is safe or going to run away with this, I don't think.

I thnk leanne rimes is talented too-- but I think the rules state that it is based on several different factors- not just vocals, not just sales, not just radio, etc-- but all of the above. I hope leanne does win someday-- she is very good. But I think Carrie is just as good or better-- but that doesn't mean I don't also appreciate leanne. I own many leanne albums actually. lol I also own miranda's album too- and the reba duets album, the trisha album, etc--- so I love them all. lol Carrie is just my favorite- but I respect the others alot too.

Why hasn't leanne rimes ever won this before? just curious. I had assumed she must have won years ago-- until I checked the list of winners.

[Stephen]

Zach, I agree that Leanne is talented. However, IMO, she is not as good as Underwood in the vocal department. Carrie is a fantastic vocalist, and while Leanne is a solid vocalist, she doesn't compare with Carrie.

Again, IMO.

[sbp17]

Aug 10, 2008 21:03:38 GMT -5 tsharky said:

Single of the Year
"Last Name or All american girl" - Carrie Underwood

Aug 10, 2008 21:56:00 GMT -5 Stephen said:

Single of the Year
[INSERT ELIGIBLE SINGLE HERE] - Carrie Underwood
[INSERT ELIGIBLE SINGLE HERE] - Kenny Chesney

This kind of defeats the purpose of the game, no?

[carriefan0209]

Aug 10, 2008 23:22:13 GMT -5 Zach said:

Am I the only one who thinks Taylor may possibly might just maybe has a chance probably will should could perhaps will win Female Vocalist?

She definitely has a chance, but like the ACMs when everyone thought Taylor would be a huge winner/threat to Carrie but only walked away with one award, I think Carrie's main competition is Miranda...it will be very close too IMO. And Miranda has had a great year she deserves whatever comes her way

[Stephen]

I don't see it defeating the purpose since T and I are predicting who will get the nomination. The song, however, is a toss-up.

[drock89]

Aug 10, 2008 23:31:23 GMT -5 tsharky said:

^ I don't think The CMA voters will give female vocalist to someone based on sales unless they are also a stellar vocalist== since the CMA's seem to be much more picky in their selections, and generally favor traditional music and artists. Carrie and Faith Hill are sort of exceptions to the rule- since they are both contemporary country, not traditional=- yet they have such great voices that they deserve to be recognized. But I still think that it will be between Carrie and Miranda for many reasons-- vocal skills just one of them.

The list of past winners of the CMA for female vocalist is very distinguished-- and not one lady on that list is anything less than a master vocalist= the best of the best. Sales are not the deciding factor--- since the voters look at overall live "vocal performances" as it is one of the CMA criteria set forth in the rules, among other criteria. Live performances are Carrie's strength, vocally-- so that gives her the edge. REba iand Leanne Rimes, Trisha, etc-- are also stellar every single time-- but they didn't have as big a year as Carrie.

If this was all true, Shania would have cleaned up the CMA/ACMs between 97-00 and again in 03-04. She's won just one award for which she was eligible; she actually has two (EOTY and IAOTY) but the IAOTY is a board-room vote, not a ballot vote.

[43dudleyvillas]

ShaniaGotchaGood, I'm a little confused, because I would hold forth Shania's situation as one of the reasons that I don't think Taylor Swift is likely to win a Female Vocalist award (at least not this year). Fairly or not, Shania is not generally considered a great vocalist (A great entertainer and an engaging songwriter, yes. A great vocalist? Not yet.). So despite her commercial dominance in album and ticket sales, she hasn't yet won the CMA Female Vocalist award. In the years you mentioned, Trisha Yearwood and Martina McBride were winning the CMA FVotY trophies despite less commercial success, largely due to their widely recognized prowess as vocalists. To me, far from refuting tsharky's point, this bolsters it.

I think the CMAs, like the ACMs and Grammys, tend to look for winners who combine commercial relevance with artistic and vocal strength. I don't think any of the voting groups would pick a commercially big winner who wasn't thought of as a vocal powerhouse/artistic standout. But depending on the buzz of the moment, I can see any of those voting groups championing a vocal powerhouse/artistic standout who isn't the biggest commercially. So I would agree that Miranda is the likeliest candidate to spring an upset victory in the FVotY over Carrie, though look out for Trisha if she gets nominated (I know Big Machine put out a For Your Consideration ad for Taylor back in June, I can only hope they are lobbying for Trisha, too).

[drock89]

Aug 11, 2008 13:38:18 GMT -5 43dudleyvillas said:

ShaniaGotchaGood, I'm a little confused, because I would hold forth Shania's situation as one of the reasons that I don't think Taylor Swift is likely to win a Female Vocalist award (at least not this year). Fairly or not, Shania is not generally considered a great vocalist (A great entertainer and an engaging songwriter, yes. A great vocalist? Not yet.). So despite her commercial dominance in album and ticket sales, she hasn't yet won the CMA Female Vocalist award. In the years you mentioned, Trisha Yearwood and Martina McBride were winning the CMA FVotY trophies despite less commercial success, largely due to their widely recognized prowess as vocalists. To me, far from refuting tsharky's point, this bolsters it.

See and I disagree. Martina won all those years because she's an industry doll. She has a voice and that's about all. If you go by the CMA's criteria for the FOTY Award, which I cannot find verbatim, you will see that voters are supposed to base their vote on several factors: record sales, radio airplay, tour revenue, national visibility, and finally promotion of country music around the musical world.

The only thing a vocalist has going for them is that 1) they are female and 2) they sing. Sure, some ladies can sing better than others, but according to the CMA rules, you're vote should only take that into consideration; whether or not you can belt in 10 different notes in one song should not be a deciding factor.

[Zach]

All of these points are interesting to note and we could go on all day up until and well after the awards about who should/will win, but the fact is- while there is criteria that they are SUPPOSED to go by- most of the awards now days are just commercial and off of commercial success- really that's any award show!

Carrie Underwood is a great vocalist, so is Shania, Martina, Reba, LeAnn, Trisha, and Faith. However, I don't think you'll see but one or two of them receive this award EVER again! Why is that? Their commerical success. But really the criteria does kind of boil down to that and as much as I argue others deserve, it's only right to give it to the one who sells the most just because that's basically what the criteria calls for. The one who is selling more and getting more airplay will definately be in the national spotlight and sell tickets. Now, airplay is a different story, in my eyes, as radio has changed to where it does not go by fan demand anymore. But you cannot argue when artists are selling millions of copies of a CD. when CD sales overall are struggling, and selling out shows.

So, if we were to go by all that, give it to Carrie again. I was just saying that Taylor is right there and, even though many don't think she's a great vocalist, she is fair game for the award. Miranda would definately be next in line, but I don't think she could pull it off to be honest, just because of the fact of sales- she does not sale like Carrie and Taylor.

I honestly would like to see the award go back to just pure content of music and vocal ability. Success is hit or miss these days, I think artists should be awarded by effort and what they put out, not how well it does. There is no justice at country radio anymore, the best song all year in the opinion of most may not even crack the Top 10, yet the garbage that often does gets rewarded because of its "success". To me, that's just not right.

[43dudleyvillas]

Aug 11, 2008 13:51:44 GMT -5 drock89 said:

See and I disagree. Martina won all those years because she's an industry doll. She has a voice and that's about all. If you go by the CMA's criteria for the FOTY Award, which I cannot find verbatim, you will see that voters are supposed to base their vote on several factors: record sales, radio airplay, tour revenue, national visibility, and finally promotion of country music around the musical world.

The only thing a vocalist has going for them is that 1) they are female and 2) they sing. Sure, some ladies can sing better than others, but according to the CMA rules, you're vote should only take that into consideration; whether or not you can belt in 10 different notes in one song should not be a deciding factor.

I think most of us are talking about what is likely to happen based on the way the CMAs have voted in the past. Well, I was, anyway. How the CMAs (and ACMs and Grammys) should vote is a separate question and a normative one.

The description you offered sounds a lot like the ACM criteria for FVotY, but I've seen nothing indicating that is what the CMA instructs its voters to vote on. The only thing I've seen from the CMA on this point is from this 2001 press release, and it suggests that the quality of individual musical performance is intended to be paramount:

One of the highlights of the CMA Awards each year is the presentation of the Female Vocalist of the Year Award. This award is based on individual musical performance on records or in person.

[Stephen]

Based on dudley's post, I honestly feel like Carrie has the award in the bag. She can sing circles around Miranda (even though I love Miranda, she sings well, just not as good as Carrie) and she has been most successful then her fellow country belters.

[drock89]

I agree with both of you that the award should be based on artistic merit and not sales, but my post was, as I think you both noted, just me venting about how the CMA doesn't, and probably shouldn't be expected to, adhere to the guidelines it set. If we're going to talk history, how is it that Johnny Cash only got awarded for the American series after he died? Why is it that Loretta Lynn didn't get a nomination for Van Lear Rose? The list goes on and on..

I think for the 5 women to watch for FOTY this year, you can't argue with Carrie, Taylor, and Miranda. The other two slots will be "courtesy" nominations, so I'm expecting Martina and then either LeAnn or Trisha. Don't count out Alison Krauss though; she's a perennial favorite for "courtesy" slots.

[Zach]

^You're right there, it's each voter's own vote so therefore their prerogative to vote for whoever they want to, whether they meet the criteria or not.

Carrie, Miranda, and Taylor are definately in the running. But I don't think Martina will get a nomination, she really didn't do anything, even though she is an industry favorite. Either Reba, LeAnn, Trisha, or Alison will get the last two slots.

[rockingcountry]

Aug 11, 2008 14:50:40 GMT -5 Zach said:

^You're right there, it's each voter's own vote so therefore their prerogative to vote for whoever they want to, whether they meet the criteria or not.

Carrie, Miranda, and Taylor are definately in the running. But I don't think Martina will get a nomination, she really didn't do anything, even though she is an industry favorite. Either Reba, LeAnn, Trisha, or Alison will get the last two slots.

I'm betting on either LeAnn or Reba to be in there. Kellie will be there I think also.

[sbp17]

Aug 11, 2008 14:39:54 GMT -5 Stephen said:

Based on dudley's post, I honestly feel like Carrie has the award in the bag. She can sing circles around Miranda (even though I love Miranda, she sings well, just not as good as Carrie) and she has been most successful then her fellow country belters.

To each his own. Generally, I prefer Carrie to Miranda but I don't think Carrie can sing circles around her. Of course, belting isn't my definition of singing.

[someguy]

Entertainer of the Year

Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Rascal Flatts
Sugarland
Carrie Underwood

Male Vocalist of the Year

Kenny Chesney
Alan Jackson
Brad Paisley
George Strait
Keith Urban

Female Vocalist of the Year

Miranda Lambert
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Trisha Yearwood

Horizon Award

Luke Bryan
Julianne Hough
Lady Antebellum
James Otto
Chuck Wicks

Vocal Group of the Year

The Eagles
Emerson Drive
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts

Vocal Duo of the Year

Big & Rich
Brooks & Dunn
Halfway to Hazard
Montgomery Gentry
Sugarland

Single of the Year

"Don't Blink" - Kenny Chesney
"Last Name" - Carrie Underwood
"Letter To Me" - Brad Paisley
"Our Song" - Taylor Swift
"Stay" - Sugarland

Song of the Year

"Better As A Memory" - Kenny Chesney
"I Saw God Today" - George Strait
"Letter To Me" - Brad Paisley
"Stay" - Sugarland
"You're Gonna Miss This" - Trace Adkins

Album of the Year

"Carnival Ride" - Carrie Underwood
"Good Time" - Alan Jackson
"Just Who I Am: Poets and Pirates" - Kenny Chesney
"Reba Duets" - Reba McEntire
"Troubadour" - George Strait

Musical Event of the Year

"Another Try" - Josh Turner & Trisha Yearwood
"Every Other Weekend" - Reba McEntire & Kenny Chesney
"Life in a Northern Town" - Suglarland, Little Big Town & Jake Owen
"Ready, Set, Don't Go" - Billy Ray Cyrus & Miley Cyrus
"Shiftwork" - Kenny Chesney & George Strait

Music Video of the Year

"Don't Blink" - Kenny Chesney
"Every Other Weekend" - Reba McEntire & Kenny Chesney
"Last Name" - Carrie Underwood
"Letter To Me" - Brad Paisley
"Picture To Burn" - Taylor Swift

[carriefan0209]

Its alot of fun to read everyones predictions :)

[zaclord]

Based on what dudley said, Carrie should win this easily. And based on what ShaniaGotchaGood said about the standards for the FVotY category, Carrie has all of those covered as well. Within the eligibility period, she has had an extremely good album that will most likely be a nominee for Album of the Year that has gone 2x platinum. She has had 3 #1 singles. She has had 2 high grossing tours, one she headlined and the other a co-headline with Keith Urban. She is on a new magazine cover every time i go into a grocery store and is now doing a commercial for Vitamin Water. And she is IMO the best female singer in the industry right now and i know many others here will agree, even if they are not a huge Carrie fan like myself.

So based on all that I think Carrie should and will win the Female Vocalist of the Year award again.

[tsharky]

Aug 11, 2008 12:50:35 GMT -5 drock89 said:

Aug 10, 2008 23:31:23 GMT -5 tsharky said:

^ I don't think The CMA voters will give female vocalist to someone based on sales unless they are also a stellar vocalist== since the CMA's seem to be much more picky in their selections, and generally favor traditional music and artists. Carrie and Faith Hill are sort of exceptions to the rule- since they are both contemporary country, not traditional=- yet they have such great voices that they deserve to be recognized. But I still think that it will be between Carrie and Miranda for many reasons-- vocal skills just one of them.

The list of past winners of the CMA for female vocalist is very distinguished-- and not one lady on that list is anything less than a master vocalist= the best of the best. Sales are not the deciding factor--- since the voters look at overall live "vocal performances" as it is one of the CMA criteria set forth in the rules, among other criteria. Live performances are Carrie's strength, vocally-- so that gives her the edge. REba iand Leanne Rimes, Trisha, etc-- are also stellar every single time-- but they didn't have as big a year as Carrie.

If this was all true, Shania would have cleaned up the CMA/ACMs between 97-00 and again in 03-04. She's won just one award for which she was eligible; she actually has two (EOTY and IAOTY) but the IAOTY is a board-room vote, not a ballot vote.

I think Shania SHOULD have won the awards at least once-- if you combine all the factors together, on paper, she had enough to win FVOTY at least once. She is at least a good vocalist even though she is not a great vocalist... and her visibility, sales, radio success, international success, etc- should have helped her win even though some of the other ladies had stronger voices like Trisha or Martina, etc. -- based on the combined total package. But at least Shania has a nice, pleasant voice that is always on key and on pitch-- unlike some. I could see her winning the award in the future if she explodes on her new album.

I think maybe what hurt Shania in the past-- was her remixes and pop albums that she put out-- as I am under the impression that Nashville doesn't take too kindly to that. Same with leanne rimes, etc- and it could happen to taylor swift eventually too, with all her remixes to pop radio. But then again- times have changed-- and no one seems to care about that as much as they used to.

[Zach]

The way I see it, country radio should say NOTHING about remixing songs for AC radio when they are now playing Jewel, Jessica Simpson, and KID ROCK! They are just extremely biased because of something that happened at the end of the 90's and they hated that country artists were actually selling on other genres so they stop playing them as a result.

tsharky, you keep talking about other artists remixing songs to AC, but it's just the same when they even RELEASE a song to AC in my book. How many of Carrie's singles have been sent there? Not that I care who sends music to AC, but you keep making a big deal out of something you claim Carrie doesn't do when the fact is, she does!

[carriefan0209]

I think there is a big difference between releasing songs as they are to different genres instead of remixing them in hopes of increasing their success on other genres.

If the song is good enough to cross over as it is then it shouldnt need a remix IMO. That said, I dont think its that big of a deal anymore...it happens alot more, and just as you said, country has been much more accepting of others crossing into its own genre now. the rules are different nowadays than the 90s i think