TOP 40 CHART: 3/01/09

[Az Paynter]

Eligible to go recurrent THIS week (3/01):
Nothing

Eligible to go recurrent in NEXT week (3/08):
Beyonce ("If I Were A Boy")
Kanye West ("Love Lockdown")
TiRi

Eligible to go recurrent in TWO weeks (3/15):
Nothing

Eligible to go recurrent in THREE weeks (3/22):
Lady GaGa ("Just Dance")
Rihanna

Eligible to go recurrent in FOUR weeks (3/29):
Taylor Swift

Eligible to go recurrent in FIVE weeks (4/05):
David Cook
Thriving Ivory

Eligible to go recurrent in SIX weeks (4/12):
The Pussycat Dolls
The Veronicas

Eligible to go recurrent in SEVEN weeks (4/19):
All-American Rejects
Beyonce ("Single Ladies")
Lesley Roy

Eligible to go recurrent in EIGHT weeks (4/26):
Kanye West ("Heartless")
Pink

Eligible to go recurrent in NINE weeks (5/03):
Britney Spears ("Circus")
The Fray

Eligible to go recurrent in TEN weeks (5/10):
Nothing


Going recurrent when they fall below #20 (Weeks in Top 40):
Britney Spears ("Womanizer") (20)
Jason Mraz (22)
Kevin Rudolf (26)

[Az Paynter]

1. Britney Spears - Circus (9650)
2. All-American Rejects - Gives You Hell
3. Taylor Swift - Love Story
4. Kanye West - Heartless
5. Pink - Sober
6. Kelly Clarkson - My Life Would Suck Without You
7. Lady GaGa - Just Dance
8. Flo Rida - Right Round
9. The Fray - You Found Me
10. Beyonce

Interesting and somewhat difficult week. I think Brit will scrape a second week at the top, but it'll be VERY close. Pink will recover but Kanye has the edge on her so I think he'll barely hold out on her. Taylor is continuing to slow her fall which will probably keep her top 3. In the second half of the chart I'm expecting a LOT of movement. Kelly to move up to #6 ahead of Lady GaGa and Beyonce, who continues to plummet all the way to #10, allowing Flo Rida and The Fray to move up. JTi will join IHTP and Untouched in the group of the "shunned" - the ones that have so far come so close to the top 10 but have yet been thwarted every week.

[Choco]

Interesting week, #1 will be really close. I think Beyoncé could be out of the top 10...

1-Circus - Britney Spears (9525)
2-Gives You Hell - All American Rejects
3-Love Story - Taylor Swift
4-Sober - Pink
5-Heartless - Kanye West
6-My Life Would Suck Without You - Kelly Clarkson
7-Just Dance - Lady GaGa & Colby O'Donis
8-Right Round - Flo Rida
9-You Found Me - The Fray
10-Dead And Gone - T.I & Justin Timberlake

(11-Beyoncé - SL)

[Matt4319]

Yeah, one could easily miss all 10 positions this week by 1 or 2 positions each. We have:

- Britney vs. AAR
- Taylor vs. Pink vs. Kanye
- Kelly vs. Lady Gaga
- T.I./JT vs. Beyonce vs. The Fray vs. Flo Rida (who could conceivably get kicked out of the top 10 by T.I./JT with a >800 bullet, provided Beyonce stems her losses a little bit).

[Dan G.]

1. Circus (9,585 Spins)
2. Gives You Hell
3. Love Story
4. Heartless
5. Sober
6. Just Dance
7. My Life Would Suck Without You
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)


--DanG

[someguy]

1. Circus (9485)
2. Gives You Hell
3. Love Story
4. Sober
5. Heartless
6. My Life Would Suck Without You
7. Just Dance
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Dead And Gone

With "Single Ladies" at #11.

[JCMF3]

1) Gives You Hell (9414)
2) Circus
3) Heartless
4) Sober
5) Love Story
6) My Life Would Suck Without You
7) Just Dance
8) You Found Me
9) Right Round
10) Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)

[blfdguy1]

1. Circus - 9,789
2. Gives You Hell
3. Heartless
4. Sober
5. Love Story
6. My Life Would Suck Without You
7. Just Dance
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Dead And Gone

[David]

1. Circus (9,603)
2. Gives You Hell
3. Heartless
4. Love Story
5. My Life Would Suck Without You
6. Sober
7. Just Dance
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Dead & Gone

[rfucom]

1. Circus (9,450)
2. Gives you hell
3. Heartless
4. Love Story
5. Sober
6. MLWSWY
7. Just Dance
8. You found me
9. Right Round
10. Dead and gone.

[Devil Marlena Nylund]

1 2 ALL-AMERICAN REJECTS Gives You Hell 9678
2 1 BRITNEY SPEARS Circus
3 6 PINK Sober
4 5 KANYE WEST Heartless
5 8 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck
6 3 TAYLOR SWIFT Love Story
7 4 LADY GAGA Just Dance
8 9 FRAY You Found Me
9 10 FLO RIDA Right Round
10 7 BEYONCE Single Ladies

TI and JT *JUST* miss the Top 10. #3-#6 are super close but I'm going to say that 'Love Story' tumbles a bit this week and falls below Kelly who continues her great bullet. Pink just barely passed Kanye.

Any AAR go to #1. :S:S:S

[Flashing Lights]

1. Britney Spears - Circus (9,600)
2. The All American Rejects - Gives You Hell
3. Kanye West - Heartless
4. Pink - Sober
5. Kelly Clarkson - My Life Would Suck Without You
6. Taylor Swift - Love Story
7. Lady Gaga feat. Colby O'Donis & Akon - Just Dance
8. The Fray - You Found Me
9. Flo Rida - Right Round
10. Beyonce - Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)

[jamrock16]

1. Circus (9400 spins)
2. Gives You Hell
3. Love Story
4. Heartless
5. My Life Would Suck Without You
6. Sober
7. Just Dance
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Dead & Gone

[beyoncelover]

1. Circus - 9589
2. Gives You Hell
3. Sober
4. Heartless
5. Love Story
6. My Life Would Suck Without You
7. Just Dance
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Dead And Gone

Ugh such tough predictions.

[when the pawn...]

1 Circus, Britney Spears (9645)
2 Gives You Hell, All American Rejects
3 Heartless, Kanye West
4 Sober, Pink
5 My Life Would Suck Without You, Kelly Clarkson
6 Love Story, Taylor Swift
7 Just Dance, Lady Gaga & Colby O'Donis
8 Right Round, Flo Rida
9 You Found Me, The Fray
10 Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It), Beyonce

yikes...probably screwing up by leaving out TiJu...and I'll be so happy if Kanye goes top 3!

[Mega248]

1. Circus (9,524)
2. Gives You Hell
3. Heartless
4. Sober
5. Love Story
6. My Life Would Suck Without You
7. Just Dance
8. You Found Me
9. Right Round
10. Single Ladies

[Deleted]

01 Gives You Hell 9300
02 Circus
03 Love Story
04 My Life Would Suck W...
05 Heartless
06 Sober
07 Just Dance
08 You Found Me
09 Right Round
10 Dead And Gone

[madraybot]

1 Circus 9437
2 Gives You Hell
3 Heartless
4 Sober
5 Love Story
6 My Life Would Suck Without You
7 Just Dance
8 You Found Me
9 Right Round
10 Single Ladies

[Juanca]

1 1 BRITNEY SPEARS Circus 9690
3 2 ALL-AMERICAN REJECTS Gives You Hell 9400
2 3 TAYLOR SWIFT Love Story 8500
6 4 KANYE WEST Heartless 8450
5 5 PINK Sober 8400
8 6 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck 7900
4 7 LADY GAGA Just Dance f/Colby O... 7800
10 8 FLO RIDA Right Round 6700
9 9 FRAY You Found Me 6500
3 10 BEYONCE Single Ladies (Put A... 6300

[AnothaSpicFromLA]

1. Circus
2. Gives You Hell
3. Love Story
4. Heartless
5. Sober
6. My Life Would Suck Without You
7. Just Dance
8. Right Round
9. Found Me
10. Single Ladies

Flo Rida and T.I. will be taking the top spot around April.

[Dan G.]

It looks like I'm Yours, which should've gone recurrent last week, is going to get a second inaccurate week in the top 20.

[Az Paynter]

I don't agree that I'm Yours should have gone recurrent last week. At the time of the update, it was firmly in the #20 position, with Katy going recurrent. Katy only got the spins back to pass him after the fact, so he was still actually top 20.

And VanessaHudgensFan001, thanks for playing and I hope you continue to play but you're going to be very heavily penalised for your predictions, having posted them a day before the Sunday update. :( In future, I recommend putting in predictions on Monday, with a guess at what spin count the #1 song will have for tiebreaker purposes. :)

[Libra]

Except that the recurrent-removal update was NOT the final Sunday update. The final update - which Mediabase ought to be using for recurrent-removal - had Katy ahead again.

Although...Katy's well below Jason by now, and in fact would be between Akon and Jesse if she was still current, so she'd be gone tomorrow anyway. (Though "Womanizer" would be #20 with Jason gone and Katy not, Akon could still pass her tomorrow and therefore it could be that Britney would go tomorrow either way.)

[JCMF3]

Holy major Sunday morning update Batman!

[Dan G.]

Feb 28, 2009 21:33:18 GMT -5 Az Paynter said:

I don't agree that I'm Yours should have gone recurrent last week. At the time of the update, it was firmly in the #20 position, with Katy going recurrent. Katy only got the spins back to pass him after the fact, so he was still actually top 20.

In the afternoon update, I'm Yours was ahead. In the final (evening) update, Hot N Cold was ahead. Recurrents are removed in the afternoon update, and 99% of the time, Mediabase can correctly anticipate where the songs will end up. In this case, Hot N Cold ended up slipping ahead of I'm Yours in the final update and should've gotten to spend another week at #20.

Mediabase evidently agrees with me, as I'm Yours was moved to recurrent status this afternoon even though it was back in the top 20.

[Juanca]

Well, in that case Mediabase AGAIN was WRONG!!!

19 18 KATY PERRY Thinking Of You 3562 3606 -44 20.930
22 19 AKON Beautiful 3151 2866 285 17.867
21 20 JOHN LEGEND Green Light f/Andre ... 3141 3427 -286 14.072

JASON MRAZ I'm Yours 3159 3471 -312 18.812

Jason was sent to Recurrentland when it was #19!! not even #20!! and given John Legend's speed of decline it was OBVIOUS that John was not gonna be able to reach #20 and surpass Jason.
So, basically Mediabase gave an unfair benefit to John Legend and made him achieve a #20 peak even though it was #21 >:(
Another mess-up and this time with NO apparent explanation this time, EXCEPT that they tried to amend last week's error by sending Jason as recurrent

[Az Paynter]

MEDIABASE CHART PREDICTION CONTEST

----------

03/01/09 CHART RESULTS

1. JCMF3: -3

2. blfdguy1: -4

3. erfrank: -5
3. madraybot: -5
3. Mega248: -5

6. beyoncelover: -6
6. Choco: -6
6. rfucom: -6

9. Azriel D. (Light On The Circus): -7
9. Flashing Lights: -7
9. JuanK - FanKson: -7
9. The Max Redecorates: -7

13. someguy: -8
13. Spavin Kidder: -8

15. jamrock16: -10
15. reidlos20: -10

17. Dan G.: -11

18. VanessaHudgensFan001: -18 (-11 for Saturday Picks)

----------

2009 YEAR-TO-DATE STANDINGS (AFTER WEEK 9 OF 50)

1. erfrank: 2.0 Wins

2. JCMF3: 1.5 Wins
2. Mega248: 1.5 Wins

4. Azriel D. (Light On The Circus): 1.0 Wins
4. blfdguy1: 1.0 Wins
4. Dan G.: 1.0 Wins
4. madraybot: 1.0 Wins
4. someguy: 1.0 Wins
4. tcatron565: 1.0 Wins
4. The Max Redecorates: 1.0 Wins

11. beyoncelover: 0.5 Wins
11. Flashing Lights: 0.5 Wins
11. jamrock16: 0.5 Wins
11. JuanK – FanKson: 0.5 Wins
11. onefrayedrepublic: 0.5 Wins

[Az Paynter]

Four Top-40 Debuts:
BRITNEY SPEARS If U Seek Amy (#34)
WE THE KINGS Secret Valentine (#38)
CIARA Love Sex Magic (#39)
FALL OUT BOY America’s Suitehearts (#40)

Five Top-50 Debuts:
CIARA Love Sex Magic (#39)
ASHER ROTH I Love College (#41)
KEVIN RUDOLF Welcome To The World (#48)
3OH!3 Don’t Trust Me (#49)
JAMIE FOXX Blame It (#50)

Top Five Most-Increased Plays:
Flo Rida – Right Round (+1201)
Lady GaGa – Poker Face (+948)
Soulja Boy – Kiss Me Thru The Phone (+938)
JTi – Dead & Gone (+862)
Ciara – Love Sex Magic (+726)

Top Five Most-Played Recurrents:
Jason Mraz – I’m Yours (3161)
Britney Spears – Womanizer (3051)
Katy Perry – Hot ‘N’ Cold (3020)
Nickelback – Gotta Be Somebody (2325)
T.I. – Whatever You Like (2212)

[galvanize]

3 1 ALL-AMERICAN REJECTS Gives You Hell (DGC/Interscope) 9423 8837 586 57.226 14
1 2 BRITNEY SPEARS Circus (Jive/JLG) 9414 9186 228 61.661 12
6 3 KANYE WEST Heartless (Roc-A-Fella/Def Jam/IDJMG) 8326 8234 92 54.002 13
5 4 PINK Sober (LaFace/JLG) 8248 8268 -20 46.120 13
2 5 TAYLOR SWIFT Love Story (Big Machine/Uni Republic) 8169 8875 -706 51.531 17
8 6 KELLY CLARKSON My Life Would Suck Without You (RCA/RMG) 7712 7119 593 47.016 7
4 7 LADY GAGA Just Dance f/Colby O'Donis (Interscope) 7710 8422 -712 51.005 18
10 8 FLO RIDA Right Round (Poe Boy/Atlantic) 6587 5386 1201 44.292 6
9 9 FRAY You Found Me (Epic) 6562 5947 615 40.317 12
11 10 T.I. Dead And Gone f/J. Timberlake (Grand Hustle/Atlantic) 6247 5385 862 41.064 8
7 11 BEYONCE Single Ladies (Put A Ring... (Music World/Columbia) 6210 7613 -1403 35.407 14
12 12 PUSSYCAT DOLLS I Hate This Part (Interscope) 5158 5137 21 36.064 15
14 13 NE-YO Mad (Def Jam/IDJMG) 5098 4587 511 32.495 8
16 14 LADY GAGA Poker Face (Interscope) 4861 3913 948 30.939 5
13 15 VERONICAS Untouched (Sire/Warner Bros.) 4711 4946 -235 26.128 15
15 16 T.I. Live Your Life f/Rihanna (Grand Hustle/Atlantic) 3806 4498 -692 26.091 20
18 17 KEVIN RUDOLF Let It Rock f/Lil Wayne (CM/Universal Republic) 3566 3831 -265 26.161 28
19 18 KATY PERRY Thinking Of You (Capitol) 3562 3606 -44 20.930 8
22 19 AKON Beautiful (SRC/Universal Motown) 3151 2866 285 17.867 7
21 20 JOHN LEGEND Green Light f/Andre 3000 (GOOD/Columbia) 3141 3427 -286 14.072 10
23 21 JESSE MCCARTNEY How Do You Sleep? (Hollywood) 3073 2737 336 18.688 5
25 22 EMINEM/DR. DRE/50 CENT Crack A Bottle (Aftrmath/Shady/Interscope) 2727 2378 349 15.251 5
27 23 SOULJA BOY Kiss Me Thru The Phone (Collipark/Interscope) 2611 1673 938 13.424 3
24 24 LEONA LEWIS I Will Be (J/RMG) 2364 2500 -136 13.300 7
30 25 WHITE TIE AFFAIR Candle (Sick And Tired) (Epic) 1860 1568 292 7.977 6
31 26 MILEY CYRUS The Climb (WDR/Hollywood) 1702 1202 500 10.461 2
26 27 DAVID COOK Light On (RCA/RMG) 1610 1999 -389 6.423 16
29 28 KANYE WEST Love Lockdown (Roc-A-Fella/IDJMG) 1377 1635 -258 10.329 20
28 29 THRIVING IVORY Angels On The Moon (Wind-up) 1361 1654 -293 5.581 16
33 30 KERI HILSON Turning Me On f/Lil Wayne (Mosley/Zone4/Interscope) 1302 1000 302 6.400 3
36 31 BEYONCE Halo (Music World/Columbia) 1271 984 287 11.018 2
32 32 MATT NATHANSON Come On Get Higher (Vanguard/Capitol) 1229 1012 217 7.192 3
38 33 SHINEDOWN Second Chance (Atlantic) 1181 919 262 4.626 2
--- 34 BRITNEY SPEARS If U Seek Amy (Jive/JLG) 1150 791 359 7.740 1
34 35 SAVING ABEL 18 Days (Virgin/Capitol) 1115 999 116 3.890 3
39 36 KID CUDI Day N Nite (Fools Gold Records) 1043 898 145 4.118 4
35 37 BEYONCE If I Were A Boy (Music World/Columbia) 822 996 -174 6.008 20
--- 38 WE THE KINGS Secret Valentine (S-Curve) 787 700 87 2.493 1
--- 39 CIARA Love Sex Magic f/J. Timberlake (LaFace/JLG) 785 59 726 5.766 1
--- 40 FALL OUT BOY America's Suitehearts (Island/IDJMG) 767 655 112 2.864 1

[Juanca]

Sooooo, Beyonce dropped out of the Top 10 this week! :o
That means: ONLY TWO WEEKS inside the Top 10 after it reached #1 thanks to a couple of weeks with -1400 change in weekly spins!!
That could be a record