joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 11, 2010 14:16:07 GMT -5
Yup, baring any unforeseen events, this will be the next #1 song. The question that remains is how many weeks Luke Bryan will spend before Carrie takes over -- and once Carrie takes over the top -- how many weeks will "Undo It" spend at #1?
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 11, 2010 14:56:16 GMT -5
I predict a single week at #1 for Luke Bryan and 3 weeks at #1 for "Undo It"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2010 15:09:41 GMT -5
I predict a single week at #1 for Luke Bryan and 3 weeks at #1 for "Undo It" Let's back this up with some numerical data. Carrie has been gaining about 1.5 million over the last 2 weeks, and Luke should be a little over 2 million ahead this week, with his song being at #1 and Carrie up to #3. Luke has obviously got a hit here, as it's about to go #1, but I'm not sure that the song has the longevity to last for more than a week at the top. It wouldn't take much for Luke to slow down, and Carrie, being the superstar that she is, wouldn't have to make much of a push to get to #1. So, I agree, Luke gets 1 week and Carrie then moves in. I wouldn't be totally surprised if Luke gets a 2nd week, but right now I just don't see it happening. On last week's BCU, Carrie had a 6-7 million AI lead on the trio of Keith, Jerrod, and ZBB. Those other songs are likely to keep charging, but I don't know that Carrie will falter after a week at the top...she knows she's got that big lead, so at least 2 weeks seems likely, and a great chance for 3...maybe even a slight chance for 4, but right now I'm gonna go with 3. Things could get easier for Carrie if ZBB's "Free" were to unfortunately get pulled for a lead single from the band, but that's a discussion for another thread. I certainly think the situation is in place for Carrie to get multiple weeks at the top after Luke Bryan begins to drop...and I'm gonna say "Undo It" gets 3 weeks at #1.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 11, 2010 16:07:09 GMT -5
On last week's BCU, Carrie had a 6-7 million AI lead on the trio of Keith, Jerrod, and ZBB. Those other songs are likely to keep charging, but I don't know that Carrie will falter after a week at the top...she knows she's got that big lead, so at least 2 weeks seems likely, and a great chance for 3...maybe even a slight chance for 4, but right now I'm gonna go with 3. It looks like Jerrod Niemann gained about 2 million on Carrie this week, so she now holds less than a 4 million AI lead over him on Mediabase. Carrie likely will still get 1-3 weeks at the top, but my guess right now is that she gets 2 weeks at #1 before Niemann takes over...
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Cody Wants Out...
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Post by Cody Wants Out... on Jul 11, 2010 17:43:00 GMT -5
As for me, I'll say that after Luke starts to fall, Carrie will get about 2 strong (with a bullet) weeks at the top and maybe one bulletless week there. I'm already looking forward to her next release (Lord, please let it be SWISLY...He knows that I love that song, too ;) ).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2010 18:15:21 GMT -5
On last week's BCU, Carrie had a 6-7 million AI lead on the trio of Keith, Jerrod, and ZBB. Those other songs are likely to keep charging, but I don't know that Carrie will falter after a week at the top...she knows she's got that big lead, so at least 2 weeks seems likely, and a great chance for 3...maybe even a slight chance for 4, but right now I'm gonna go with 3. It looks like Jerrod Niemann gained about 2 million on Carrie this week, so she now holds less than a 4 million AI lead over him on Mediabase. Carrie likely will still get 1-3 weeks at the top, but my guess right now is that she gets 2 weeks at #1 before Niemann takes over... I see that Jerrod is making a big push, but Carrie has yet to make hers as well, and although Niemann has his big breakthrough hit here with "Lover, Lover", I don't think he has the pop to knock Carrie off until she's ready to come down on her own...plus, aren't both artists backed by Arista? I don't know that the label would want them to compete with each other...I think Carrie can get a couple weeks and then they will still be able to get Jerrod at least a week...And anyway, I think Jerrod's surge was to see if he could get ahead of Keith and ZBB, and to maybe see how those other #1 contenders (I'm In and Free) would respond--if Jerrod can get ahead far enough, he would presumably be at the front of the "waiting line" for #1, ahead of ZBB and KU. But if Keith and ZBB want #1 and they respond to Jerrod's push, Jerrod could fall down the line or towards the back, maybe...at least, that's the hypothetical scenario I see in my head lol. Obviously labels and radio and whatnot can change things up quite a bit, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I still believe that Carrie will be guaranteed 2 weeks at #1, and a 3rd could easily happen too even if she's bullet-less/dropping, as CA$HBY234567 suggests..
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jul 13, 2010 21:46:41 GMT -5
Undo It---number 1 on Country Aircheck today with a huge gap between it and "I'm In" by Keith Urban. It looks like a mulitple week ride for Carrie. It's amazing what a marriage in the middle of a chart climb will do.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jul 13, 2010 22:31:12 GMT -5
Honestly, I haven't noticed huge changes in the updates for UI since before the wedding. The song was heading straight for #1 long before, and it's had that huge gap between it and "I'm In" for a long time.
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Post by countrybamafan on Jul 18, 2010 21:57:45 GMT -5
Well, Luke has got his second week at #1 on Mediabase wrapped up. According to rowdawg21's projected Billboard chart, Luke is ahead by about 0.7 million AI's, and with one day of airplay (today's) left to account for, he most likely will hold on for Billboard as well (unless rowdawg's chart is a little off. I can hope).
So much for Carrie hitting the #1 spot this week, but she should most definitely hit the top spot next week. It'll be interesting to see how many weeks at the top she will get. I think she has a good chance of having 2 weeks. If Jerrod can hang on for a couple more weeks, then he should follow her after that, but he may run out of steam. If Jerrod can't hang on, then Carrie could get 3-4 weeks at the top (this situation sort of sucks for me because I love Carrie and each additional week at #1 puts her higher on the Whitburn chart, but I love Jerrod's Lover, Lover).
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Post by drummerman2009 on Jul 18, 2010 22:52:30 GMT -5
Honestly, I haven't noticed huge changes in the updates for UI since before the wedding. The song was heading straight for #1 long before, and it's had that huge gap between it and "I'm In" for a long time. I don't see how a wedding would interfere with a song about to go #1. It's just that Luke didn't fall as fast as everyone thought so he got his 2nd week at #1 (won't really know until tomorrow but it's pretty much a given that Luke is still #1). But one sure thing is that Carrie will be #1 next week. Have patience and it'll happen.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jul 18, 2010 23:23:59 GMT -5
Honestly, I haven't noticed huge changes in the updates for UI since before the wedding. The song was heading straight for #1 long before, and it's had that huge gap between it and "I'm In" for a long time. I don't see how a wedding would interfere with a song about to go #1. It's just that Luke didn't fall as fast as everyone thought so he got his 2nd week at #1 (won't really know until tomorrow but it's pretty much a given that Luke is still #1). But one sure thing is that Carrie will be #1 next week. Have patience and it'll happen. ??? I didn't say it would. I was pointing out that the wedding didn't really matter in pushing the song to #1, it was already headed there long before any press about the wedding. I know it will go to #1. I've never doubted that. My curiosity lies with how many weeks at the top it will get.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 19, 2010 0:19:01 GMT -5
I know it will go to #1. I've never doubted that. My curiosity lies with how many weeks at the top it will get. It appears that Carrie will have to wait until next week to reach #1. Jerrod Niemann is still only 3.3 Million AI behind Carrie, so she may only get a week or 2 at the top...
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Jul 19, 2010 0:34:29 GMT -5
I expect Carrie will probably get 2-3 weeks at the top, but I'm not sure if Jerrod will be able to keep up w/ Keith Urban / ZBB who are rising pretty fast
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 19, 2010 0:42:02 GMT -5
Personally, If she doesn't get there this week, I would say that 3 weeks is highly unlikely...
Jerrod has about a 2 million lead on Zac Brown Band and Keith, plus Carrie and Jarrod are both on Arista, so it probably wouldn't be too difficult for them to pull strings to allow "Lover, Lover" and "Undo It" to reach #1 if they wanted.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Jul 19, 2010 8:44:00 GMT -5
Personally, If she doesn't get there this week, I would say that 3 weeks is highly unlikely... Jerrod has about a 2 million lead on Zac Brown Band and Keith, plus Carrie and Jarrod are both on Arista, so it probably wouldn't be too difficult for them to pull strings to allow "Lover, Lover" and "Undo It" to reach #1 if they wanted. I thought she needed about a 500k swing vs. Luke Bryan on the final day to reach #1 on Billboard, and she hardly gained anything, and he only lost 150k or so. Not the usual Carrie trampling of whatever is in her way, gaining 400k each of the weekend days and taking #1 from some other song that couldn't compete. I'm surprised. She still could get 3 weeks, but only if she has another 1 to 1.5 million worth of growth in her. (She should be in the neighborhood of 3 million, maybe 3.2, ahead of Niemann on the 7/31 chart.) Which could easily happen -- this is Carrie we're discussing -- but she doesn't usually have #1 right in front of her and turn it down, the way it just happened. And of course it still could be that the numbers will work out differently on Billboard, and her gains will be enough to pass Bryan -- but I don't expect so.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jul 19, 2010 9:52:52 GMT -5
I think the label is waiting for Carrie to get back from her honeymoon, which should be sometime this week, and then the radio interviews will start and somewhat of a push will start. I don't know if she'll actually need it, but we'll see. She's co-hosting CCUSA on the weekend, right? That, plus UI being the hot song for the week (I believe), will pretty much guarantee Carrie the #1 spot on next week's chart.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Jul 19, 2010 12:08:35 GMT -5
This will easily become her twelfth consecutive top two hit, just one behind Brad Paisley's string. By the way, both streaks started in 2006!
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jul 19, 2010 15:05:00 GMT -5
This will easily become her twelfth consecutive top two hit, just one behind Brad Paisley's string. By the way, both streaks started in 2006! That would be on Billboard not on mediabase where her streak of number ones will continue.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 20, 2010 16:32:19 GMT -5
"Undo It" has to reach #1 first guys.
Obviously I assume Carrie will be there soon, but that's mostly thanks to Luke Bryan dropping.
At this point I don't think she'll stay on top very long -- possibly just 1 week. Jerrod is only about 2.5 mill behind her now, while Keith / Zac Brown are both less than 2 mill behind Jarrod, and charging quickly.
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Post by countrygirl918 on Jul 21, 2010 1:01:49 GMT -5
"Undo It" has to reach #1 first guys. Obviously I assume Carrie will be there soon, but that's mostly thanks to Luke Bryan dropping. At this point I don't think she'll stay on top very long -- possibly just 1 week. Jerrod is only about 2.5 mill behind her now, while Keith / Zac Brown are both less than 2 mill behind Jarrod, and charging quickly. Keep in mind that neither Carrie nor her label has done any pushing of UI on radio whatsoever yet. Who knows what kind of updates it will get once that push starts (which will likely be sometime later this week). If it's able to get a sizeable push and increase its lead on the songs coming from below, it might manage 2-3 weeks at the top, possibly even 4. (When I checked the real time tracker a few hours ago, UI was holding steady at #1. Unless something crazy happens, it should remain there throughout the week and at the very least get one week at #1 for the next chart.)
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 21, 2010 1:14:58 GMT -5
Yeah, Carrie should have no trouble hitting #1 this week, as Luke Bryan starts tumbling down.
Luke already announced his new single, and has no desire to hold on to the top spot right now.
So basically, Carrie really doesn't need any huge push to get her week at #1.
If she wants to stay for multiple weeks, she'll need a boost to keep in front of Jerrod, Keith, and Zac Brown. Personally, I don't see this happening at the moment, but anything is possible...
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Jul 21, 2010 1:31:18 GMT -5
She certainly won't need the extremely intense push from her label execs and promotion team as well as a deluge of texts and tweets from fellow country artists to reach the penthouse.
I'm referring to folks such as David Nail, Lady Antebellum & Chris Young who utilized those tactics earlier this year which helped propel Miranda's 'White Liar' to #1, along with that Blake Shelton fella tweeting like mad and workin' the phones.
I also wouldn't be surprised if she hits #1 at Mediabase tomorrow.
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jul 21, 2010 9:51:45 GMT -5
I think Carrie will start doing some interviews very soon. I'm thinking alot of stations want the whole marriage detail thing and that will help her sustain the top spot for a while. She's at number one now on the tracker and on mediabase so any kind of push from the label or her will be huge. Two weeks for sure and an outside shot at three.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 21, 2010 13:14:37 GMT -5
She's at number one now on the tracker and on mediabase so any kind of push from the label or her will be huge. Two weeks for sure and an outside shot at three. She's at #1 right now, thanks to Luke Bryan free-falling. Look at her bullet of 66 compared to Zac & Keith's 400+ bullet, and Jerrod's 300. All 3 songs are racing towards the top, so I wouldn't say "two weeks for sure". 1 week for sure, that's pretty much a given, but beyond that is very uncertain...
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Post by Peaches. [Ch, r. is] on Jul 21, 2010 13:18:57 GMT -5
Carrie Underwood, Undo It (41,000, -9%, 590,000 total)
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jptexas
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Post by jptexas on Jul 21, 2010 14:32:56 GMT -5
She's at number one now on the tracker and on mediabase so any kind of push from the label or her will be huge. Two weeks for sure and an outside shot at three. She's at #1 right now, thanks to Luke Bryan free-falling. Look at her bullet of 66 compared to Zac & Keith's 400+ bullet, and Jerrod's 300. All 3 songs are racing towards the top, so I wouldn't say "two weeks for sure". 1 week for sure, that's pretty much a given, but beyond that is very uncertain... I believe Jarrod and Carrie are on the same label. I don't think his song will overtake UI that soon. Besides, like I said, she got there with basically no promotion. I think if she decides to do interviews, which is very likely, her spins and AI's will increase to allow for two weeks at the top. jmo
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2010 15:02:11 GMT -5
I can see both points here...that Luke has peaked, obviously, so Carrie was there waiting...but also that the songs behind Carrie (ZBB, Jerrod, even Keith) are getting more spins...at least for now. But I am kinda leaning towards Carrie getting 2 weeks still. I think there will be a small push to keep a decent-sized gap between her and the songs behind, whether that push is some interviews or the label or whatever. I suppose she could be satisfied with one week, but I still think two. But again, it's very tough to know for sure..
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Jul 21, 2010 18:02:59 GMT -5
She's at #1 right now, thanks to Luke Bryan free-falling. Look at her bullet of 66 compared to Zac & Keith's 400+ bullet, and Jerrod's 300. All 3 songs are racing towards the top, so I wouldn't say "two weeks for sure". 1 week for sure, that's pretty much a given, but beyond that is very uncertain... I believe Jarrod and Carrie are on the same label. I don't think his song will overtake UI that soon. Besides, like I said, she got there with basically no promotion. I think if she decides to do interviews, which is very likely, her spins and AI's will increase to allow for two weeks at the top. jmo Being on the same label, I'm sure they want both songs to hit #1. I'm not sure how long Jerrod will be able to hold off ZBB and Keith...
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2010 18:42:35 GMT -5
^Yeah, I think the label would want both songs to get to #1. It's obvious that Carrie has a big enough lead AND the starpower to cruise to #1 for at least one week, but Jerrod is going to need more of a push. I know he's been doing well lately, and even closing in on Carrie a bit, but ZBB might want "Free" to hit #1 so they can rush a lead single from their Sept. 21 release of their new album. It sure seems like "Free" is off and running to start the week...Jerrod might be able to stay ahead yet, because his just-released album could generate more airplay for "Lover, Lover"...but I wouldn't want to be in ZBB's way, especially with a great Keith Urban song behind, too. Right now, I'll say Carrie has a 65% chance of just hanging on to #1 for a 2nd week...she'll get the first, no doubt, but I've changed my mind and I think ZBB will succeed her, and Jerrod and Keith will still have great chances to go #1...it certainly will be an interesting month of August...
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Jul 23, 2010 20:15:01 GMT -5
#1 next week and sales will be over 600K. Nice!
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