Jonsolo
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Post by Jonsolo on Oct 25, 2010 10:18:41 GMT -5
Kenny did come alive over the final five days of the week, to end up with a 2.85 mill gain and that 3.065 mill total for the week. Always a question as to how much of that translates over to Billboard. I think he should at least be around 2.7~3.0 mill.
But he should at a minimum get above Frankie Ballard (who with his flat week on MB probably hung around the 2.5~2.6 mill area), and check in at #37 (assuming Josh Thompson and his previous single went recurrent). Dierks, Josh Kelley, Thompson Square, and Jerrod Niemann should all be around the low 3's on Billboard, and Kenny might have slipped past one or two of them. So I think the debut will be around #35~#37.
We'll see if Kenny can mimic the power of Never Wanted Nothing More, and shoot up a ton of positions in its second week on the chart, after a low 30s debut. But he'd probably need a 10 mill gain next week, to threaten the top 20.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Oct 25, 2010 13:44:12 GMT -5
When it comes to Kenny, I hang onto a song like "Demons" (and his performance on it) as evidence that he can come up with something that I like. While I concede that "Somewhere with You" is bound to be a successful single for him, it doesn't work for me. The foremost issue I have with it is my most common issue with Kenny -- his phrasing is so flat and monotonous, I don't think he adds much to the song. I don't mind the tone of Kenny's voice, but I think his delivery is passive and merely follows the beat of the song without much variety depending on the lyric. I listen to this song and think that someone like Keith Urban would bring a lived-in ache to the lyric. My other struggle is with the sound of the song itself. This isn't Kenny's fault, but this song sounds a lot like the 80s Hall & Oates-ish soft rock that I would hear in the car during long trips while desperately hoping that my parents would switch to the country station without my asking (I didn't want to push my luck when it came to asking my parents to change the station; one can only ask so many times, after all). Keep in mind that I had the same issue with "Need You Now," so I recognize that this is simply my block for a particular kind of music and that this in no way means the song isn't going to be a big hit. If you are a parent, 43dudleyvillas, maybe your kid(s) will ask you to change stations when they hear Need You Now to say, Katy Perry's Teenage Dream (congratulations Katy on your wedding).
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Oct 25, 2010 18:19:27 GMT -5
Probably a #35 or #36 debut is the safe guess, based on what the gains for KC have been so far after two days. Right on the money, as always... Hot Shot Debut/Greatest Gainer #35 "Somewhere With You" Kenny Chesney
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2010 21:51:16 GMT -5
Kenny did come alive over the final five days of the week, to end up with a 2.85 mill gain and that 3.065 mill total for the week. Always a question as to how much of that translates over to Billboard. I think he should at least be around 2.7~3.0 mill. But he should at a minimum get above Frankie Ballard (who with his flat week on MB probably hung around the 2.5~2.6 mill area), and check in at #37 (assuming Josh Thompson and his previous single went recurrent). Dierks, Josh Kelley, Thompson Square, and Jerrod Niemann should all be around the low 3's on Billboard, and Kenny might have slipped past one or two of them. So I think the debut will be around #35~#37. We'll see if Kenny can mimic the power of Never Wanted Nothing More, and shoot up a ton of positions in its second week on the chart, after a low 30s debut. But he'd probably need a 10 mill gain next week, to threaten the top 20. It's possible that he could hit the top 20. He's at just over 3 million, and like you said, he'd need that 10 million week, which I don't think would be impossible. But of course we'll need a day or two of data to come back for this week to know if Keith is gonna get anywhere close to 10, or if he'll have 5 or 6 or whatever. Anyway, Josh Turner leaves next week's chart for sure, and I think Justin Moore could be doomed too, as he barely kept his bullet this week--lost about 300k but gained a measly 3 spins, although Valory still has an ad for his song in tonight's BCU. But nonetheless, I think Justin will leave along with Josh. If Kenny did gain 10 million, he'd be at about 13 million total. Chris Young will likely move to #19, and he'll be over 13 million. Toby will likely pass Eric Church and would therefore move to #20, but there is a big gap of 3 million between Chris and Eric/Toby. Toby is likely to come in next week with 11-12 million, assuming he gains over 1.5 million again. So Kenny could shoot for that gap between Chris and Eric/Toby, gain 9-10 million, and land at #20, just behind Chris at #19 and Toby at #21. If Kenny wants to aim lower, he could shoot for the 2.5 million gap between Toby and Lady A (could be just as likely as the other scenario I spelled out), or just behind Lady A. This is all figuratively speaking, of course. Either way, I don't think he'll be any lower than #23, and no higher than #20 unless he has an absurdly monster week. Even if Kenny only gains 5 million, he's off to a good start. After all, he is Kenny
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Post by TheWolverine on Oct 26, 2010 3:04:52 GMT -5
I think this is the strongest track on the album. It's a little different, but love it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2010 15:22:06 GMT -5
Looks like Kenny has had pretty solid week so far. But I don't think it's gonna be a 10 million week. How does a 6-7 million week sound? Right now, I think he's on pace for a gain somewhere in that range. Even with Lady A's star power and excellent song/video for "Hello World", they're still no match for the rapid speed of a Chesney single. Lady A is moving at a pretty good clip, and would normally be the ones passing everyone while not getting passed at all, but this is Kenny we're dealing with. Hopefully Toby and Lady A can still make #1, but I think both might have to go 18-20 weeks or more to get there..
Anyway, with Josh Turner going recurrent (and probably the only top 30 song to do so), Kenny takes his spot. I've got him landing in that big gap between Toby and Lady A, thus "Somewhere With You" would be at #23. I think Toby will move up to #21, passing Eric Church at #22, and Lady A will have a 2nd week at #24. But they're bound to really keep moving, they just need to get in line behind Kenny. "Somewhere With You" looks like it could pass Toby in week #3 too. Even though Toby has the potential to resurrect his radio momentum with the fabulous "Bullets In The Gun", like Lady A, Toby is still no match for the pace set by a great Chesney single...
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Oct 29, 2010 15:31:01 GMT -5
Looks like Kenny has had pretty solid week so far. But I don't think it's gonna be a 10 million week. How does a 6-7 million week sound? Right now, I think he's on pace for a gain somewhere in that range. Even with Lady A's star power and excellent song/video for "Hello World", they're still no match for the rapid speed of a Chesney single. Lady A is moving at a pretty good clip, and would normally be the ones passing everyone while not getting passed at all, but this is Kenny we're dealing with. Hopefully Toby and Lady A can still make #1, but I think both might have to go 18-20 weeks or more to get there.. Anyway, with Josh Turner going recurrent (and probably the only top 30 song to do so), Kenny takes his spot. I've got him landing in that big gap between Toby and Lady A, thus "Somewhere With You" would be at #23. I think Toby will move up to #21, passing Eric Church at #22, and Lady A will have a 2nd week at #24. But they're bound to really keep moving, they just need to get in line behind Kenny. "Somewhere With You" looks like it could pass Toby in week #3 too. Even though Toby has the potential to resurrect his radio momentum with the fabulous "Bullets In The Gun", like Lady A, Toby is still no match for the pace set by a great Chesney single... I think Kenny will have to battle with Lady A for that #23 position. I do think Kenny will pass them, but you have to be careful because last week Kenny's BB/MB ratio was .990. That will decrease next week, probably to something between 0.84 and 0.89 (that's about what most songs in the 20s have for a ratio). If I switch Kenny's ratio from 0.99 to 0.89 on my chart, then his projected audience goes from 9.974 to 8.741. Quite the difference.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2010 17:02:47 GMT -5
Looks like Kenny has had pretty solid week so far. But I don't think it's gonna be a 10 million week. How does a 6-7 million week sound? Right now, I think he's on pace for a gain somewhere in that range. Even with Lady A's star power and excellent song/video for "Hello World", they're still no match for the rapid speed of a Chesney single. Lady A is moving at a pretty good clip, and would normally be the ones passing everyone while not getting passed at all, but this is Kenny we're dealing with. Hopefully Toby and Lady A can still make #1, but I think both might have to go 18-20 weeks or more to get there.. Anyway, with Josh Turner going recurrent (and probably the only top 30 song to do so), Kenny takes his spot. I've got him landing in that big gap between Toby and Lady A, thus "Somewhere With You" would be at #23. I think Toby will move up to #21, passing Eric Church at #22, and Lady A will have a 2nd week at #24. But they're bound to really keep moving, they just need to get in line behind Kenny. "Somewhere With You" looks like it could pass Toby in week #3 too. Even though Toby has the potential to resurrect his radio momentum with the fabulous "Bullets In The Gun", like Lady A, Toby is still no match for the pace set by a great Chesney single... I think Kenny will have to battle with Lady A for that #23 position. I do think Kenny will pass them, but you have to be careful because last week Kenny's BB/MB ratio was .990. That will decrease next week, probably to something between 0.84 and 0.89 (that's about what most songs in the 20s have for a ratio). If I switch Kenny's ratio from 0.99 to 0.89 on my chart, then his projected audience goes from 9.974 to 8.741. Quite the difference. Good point. I figured the ratio would change a little bit, but that's a bigger difference than I thought. Thanks for pointing that out. But like you said, I think Kenny will come up with just enough to move ahead of them. And even if he doesn't, he will the next week. Lady A will certainly climb the charts pretty quickly, I think, but they'll have to get in line behind Kenny...
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loneranger
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Post by loneranger on Oct 29, 2010 17:55:48 GMT -5
This is my favorite Kenny song in years. I'm so glad he's continuing to stay off the beach with his singles
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 1, 2010 12:15:15 GMT -5
About a six mill gain if his ratio normalizes, about a seven mill gain if he stays way up on the high side. It's not going to matter too much, since he'll pull away from this group of songs pretty quickly whether he passes them this week or not.
I vote for a 9.4 mill total, which is about a 6.4 mill increase. I believe his ratio will gradually move toward 85%, but it won't get there in one week.
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Jonsolo
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Post by Jonsolo on Nov 1, 2010 13:20:13 GMT -5
Looks like he'll be right in the midst of Lady A, as rowdawg was saying, and the #23 spot. Based on the first two weeks, I like that 1/29/11 Billboard chart, for him to arrive at #1. So there'll be a scramble to see who can grab those first few January weeks at #1, and McGraw and Urban have been put on notice.
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Post by gallopinggold on Nov 6, 2010 9:06:45 GMT -5
fantastic song! Heard it once and downloaded it immediately. Makes me kinda regret not buying the album. Nice to hear something different from KC and to see it moving up the chart quickly. Hopefully we get a music video soon.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 6, 2010 9:11:46 GMT -5
Looks like he'll be right in the midst of Lady A, as rowdawg was saying, and the #23 spot. Based on the first two weeks, I like that 1/29/11 Billboard chart, for him to arrive at #1. So there'll be a scramble to see who can grab those first few January weeks at #1, and McGraw and Urban have been put on notice. Looks like Urban's not enjoying his notice much. Kenny has gained more each day this week than KU has gained for the 5 days Mon-Sat on MB. The gap will be less than 5 mill between the two songs, and it shouldn't take too long for Kenny to make up that amount.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2010 6:12:02 GMT -5
Nice move into the top 20 by Kenny. This song is great!
I expect it to gain at least another 2 spots next week, the 11/27 chart. He should be able to overtake Luke Bryan, and then gain an additional spot from Taylor's "Mine" leaving the chart, as I think it'll lose enough audience to go recurrent. George is still hanging in there at #11, but if he tanks that could mean another 3 spot jump for Kenny. Keith is slowly picking up the pace, and Miranda is picking it up a bit now too (thanks to CMA buzz, no doubt). Trace and Justin have slowed a bit, and although Chris Young is now really moving, none of the 5 mentioned will withstand Kenny's charge, and Lord knows he won't be passed from behind by anyone...
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 9, 2010 13:32:58 GMT -5
Nice move into the top 20 by Kenny. This song is great! I expect it to gain at least another 2 spots next week, the 11/27 chart. He should be able to overtake Luke Bryan, and then gain an additional spot from Taylor's "Mine" leaving the chart, as I think it'll lose enough audience to go recurrent. George is still hanging in there at #11, but if he tanks that could mean another 3 spot jump for Kenny. Keith is slowly picking up the pace, and Miranda is picking it up a bit now too (thanks to CMA buzz, no doubt). Trace and Justin have slowed a bit, and although Chris Young is now really moving, none of the 5 mentioned will withstand Kenny's charge, and Lord knows he won't be passed from behind by anyone... Taylor Swift won't go recurrent until the following week, no matter how much audience she loses. She had a bullet on 11/13, as a result of a rather large 4.5 mill gain.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2010 15:04:15 GMT -5
^You're right, I had forgotten that. Does that mean Taylor can lose a ton of audience, perhaps enough to fall out of the top 10, and still chart for one last week, maybe around 11th or 12th?
Kenny might not have a big jump then, position-wise, but so far the numbers for the first 2 days of the week (MB week) have him as the biggest gainer yet again, with just under a million gained each day (on MB). I also noticed that Trace Adkins is really slowing down, and he might be in trouble unless he can turn it around...he's lost his bullet and some audience, so I imagine a big enough drop might mean he could leave the chart...which, I suppose, makes a bit of sense. While Trace isn't a top tier artist, he still gets played well enough, and his album is almost 3 months old already! They might be able to get TANLS into the top 10 if they wanted to, but I bet they'll want the next single out there before the holidays. The sales for Trace's album haven't been super great, but they've been pretty modest.
Back to Kenny--perhaps only a 1-2 spot move on the chart for next week, even though he'll gain a lot of audience. The week after could see him have a bigger jump..
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Nov 9, 2010 17:39:15 GMT -5
The bullet doesnt matter on billboard.
If her song is not top 10 in spins or audience its off.
But taylor should still be top 10 in both of those so she gets 1 more week.
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rowdawg21
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Post by rowdawg21 on Nov 9, 2010 17:52:31 GMT -5
The bullet doesnt matter on billboard. If her song is not top 10 in spins or audience its off. But taylor should still be top 10 in both of those so she gets 1 more week. The bullet does matter if a song is not over 20 weeks old, and Taylor is well under that mark. That means Taylor will still be on the chart next week (like Zazie said). Also, she will easily fall out of the top 10 next week (she should be at #12 or #13). As for "Somewhere With You," I expect it to jump to #15 or #16 next week.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 9, 2010 20:04:41 GMT -5
The bullet doesnt matter on billboard. If her song is not top 10 in spins or audience its off. But taylor should still be top 10 in both of those so she gets 1 more week. She won't be in the top 10 in audience, most likely. But as you will see, she stays on the chart no matter what. Unless her audience drops her below the top 60, of course.
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Nov 9, 2010 20:38:37 GMT -5
Oh didnt know that....im looking at the blurb under the billboard chart & all it says is:
"Descending country titles move to recurrent after 20 weeks if they rank below No. 10 in either audience or plays."
Makes no mention of a bullet....i shouldnt expect for bilboard to be clear though that would make way too much sense.
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Nov 9, 2010 23:17:22 GMT -5
Oh didnt know that....im looking at the blurb under the billboard chart & all it says is: "Descending country titles move to recurrent after 20 weeks if they rank below No. 10 in either audience or plays." Makes no mention of a bullet....i shouldnt expect for bilboard to be clear though that would make way too much sense. I think when they say "descending" they believe they're telling you "without a bullet." I know there are rare cases when a descending song maintains a bullet, but they weren't worrying about that when they wrote up the description.
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joey2002
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Post by joey2002 on Nov 10, 2010 0:14:10 GMT -5
Different bullet issue, but Taylor's last single, "Fearless" comes to mind...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2010 2:55:29 GMT -5
Yeah, I do now think that Kenny will be higher than what I originally thought. Keith is still moving sluggishly, and I don't think Trace is much of a threat. Miranda doesn't appear to have had a good Monday (despite this being CMA week), so I think Kenny can overtake her and Trace, as well as Justin, Chris, and Luke. And there's the potential to gain an additional spot if George collapses later this week...but right now it looks like he's got a pretty good chance to move up to #15 or so..
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Black Jesus
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Post by Black Jesus on Nov 16, 2010 7:51:09 GMT -5
Looking healthy! 18 KENNY CHESNEY Somewhere With You BNA 2513 2133 380 7436
This song really grew on me. I love it now!
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dcowboy77
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Post by dcowboy77 on Nov 30, 2010 14:03:52 GMT -5
Hello video....hello ?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2010 16:55:19 GMT -5
This is one of my all-time favorite Chesney singles, and stands among my top 2 or 3 favorite songs in the past year. Should enter the top 10 next week...if it waits too much longer, there may not be a video. But I hope that's not the case, because I think Kenny could make a great video for this song.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Nov 30, 2010 18:26:59 GMT -5
This gets my vote as his best single in quite awhile, certainly since 'Don't Blink' spent an astonishing six weeks at #1 at Country Aircheck/Mediabase in 2007, and a month at #1 in Billboard.
This wonderful song will undoubtedly go to #1 early next year, with the only mystery remaining how long he stays in the penthouse.
After not winding up as the year's most-played aritst at country radio in 2010 and ending a four-year streak in the process (Lady Antebellum buried everybody at Billboard this year, and I suspect that Brad Paisley finished #1 this year at Country Aircheck/Mediabase), he'll certainly be in the race to reclaim the top spot in 2011.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2010 19:28:43 GMT -5
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Post by 43dudleyvillas on Dec 15, 2010 22:15:38 GMT -5
For clarity's sake, that is a press release from Shore Fire Media (a PR firm that represents Kenny, among others) and from Sony Nashville. You can also view it here on the Shore Fire Media website.
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bigbluenote
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Post by bigbluenote on Dec 16, 2010 0:40:24 GMT -5
I could have swore I already posted in this thread. But I guess I didn't.
This is the first Kenny Chesney song I like since "Big Star". And this is also the first Kenny Chesney song I've downloaded since "Big Star".
THAT'S how much I love this song, depise not liking any of his music. This song is EASILY one of the best quality songs on the whole country top 40 right now. The way he sings it makes me feel the very well-written lyrics and the melody just flows so smoothly.
I tried to deny how good this song is at first because of how terrible his music always is. But no, this song is THAT good.
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