HITS 3/14-5: Lupe Fiasco #1 220-240k

[Adam (UTR)]

HANG ON LUPE

Atlantic’s Fiasco Headed for #1 Debut, Glee Vo. 5, Lavigne Also Bow

March 9, 2011

It’s Lupe Fiasco time.

The Chicago-born rapper—real name Wasalu Muhammad Jaco—arrives with his third Atlantic Records studio album, Lasers, which will debut at #1 next week with between 220-240k in sales, the second biggest of the year next to Adele and the best start of his career.

Lupe Fiasco’s Food & Liquor, his Grammy-winning 2006 debut, bowed at #8 with 81k sold, and went on to sell 350k. His second album, the multi-Grammy-nominated Lupe Fiasco’s Cool, debuted at #15 in Dec., 2007, selling 143k, going on to a total of more than 500k.

Columbia’s Glee, Vol. 5 hits this week, with an expected sales total in the 90-100k range. This one features the gang’s mash-up of “Thriller” and Yeah Yeah Yeahs’ “Heads Will Roll,” along with versions of Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now,” Katy Perry’s “Firework,” Justin Bieber’s “Baby” and Queen’s “Fat Bottomed Girls.”

RCA/RMG rocker Avril Lavigne returns with Goodbye Lullabye, her fourth studio album and first since 2007’s The Best Damn Thing, which appears headed for 85-90k.

R.E.M.’s Collapse Into Now, the band’s last album under the $80 million Warner Bros. contract it inked in 1988, which many are calling a return to their classic mid-’80s form, looks to be in the 45-50k range.

RCA Nashville country singer-songwriter Sara Evans’ Stronger and Ice H20/EMI rapper Raekwon’s Shaolin vs. Wu-Tang, are both looking at between 40-45k in first-week sales.

The market was down 2% vs. last week, up 1% vs. same week last year and now down 8% year to date.

Hey, it beats the week Charlie Sheen’s having.

[hazuki]

Wowww! Woo! Very happy for Lupe, one of my favorite artists.

[Honeymoon]

Great for Lupe. I was expecting everything else to do a bit better, hopefully Avril and Glee will get above 100k

[HolidayGuy]

Not a very good projection for Avril Lavigne. At least one act has a strong projection (Lupe).

[kt1990]

Oh wow, I was expecting at least 150K for Avril.

[Fat Ass Kelly Price]

Wow. I didn't expect that much from Lupe. He deserves it.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2011 15:52:29 GMT -5 @kt1990 said:

Oh wow, I was expecting at least 150K for Avril.

As was I . This might be her Bionic era (with the exception that her lead single performs well).

[areyoureadytojump]

I'm surprised at Lupe.

REM is doing well.

I thought Avril might do a bit better.

[chopped89]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!
I might as well die, i don't care anymore. I am so happy :)

[#LisaRinna]

Mar 9, 2011 15:55:14 GMT -5 Fat Ass Kelly Price said:

Wow. I didn't expect that much from Lupe. He deserves it.

+1

[jgizzle89]

weren't people on here saying lupe couldn't top 100k? great numbers for him!

[Taylor.]

Ouch at Avril.

[Cerbius]

OMG terrible numbers for Avril. I can't believe this is on track to open lower than Bionic in spite of a hit single. Here's to hoping this album will at least have some longevity with the right single choices.

[Epic Fail]

Congrats to Lupe. Sucks to be Avril, I guess.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2011 15:59:44 GMT -5 jgizzle89 said:

weren't people on here saying lupe couldn't top 100k? great numbers for him!

This doesn't surprise me at all; I had - and still have - a feeling he might do something similar to what Kid Cudi did last year (strong opening due to a loyal following, but a steep fall second week due to lack of a current single high on any chart). It would be nice if he proves me wrong though and stabilizes in the top 20 for a while.

Mar 9, 2011 15:52:29 GMT -5 @kt1990 said:

Oh wow, I was expecting at least 150K for Avril.

Me too :( I was thinking 150-180k. I kind of had the feeling that this album's debut numbers would pretty much rely on her core fans. But I thought her core was bigger than that. In her slight defense, I haven't gotten the sense that there is a lot of public awareness about the album release date, it just kind of feels like they threw WTH out there and thought that by itself was supposed to make people know or care exactly when the album would drop. Even with Bionic I felt there was a lot more buzz (not necessarily positive, but it was there) about its arrival. I'm presuming there will be steady promo/appearances this week though, and hopefully follow-up singles will do well and get Avril to gold.

[when the pawn...]

Expected for Avril - she's been gone for 4 years and WTH didn't do much.

As much as I'm personally disappointed with Lasers, I couldn't be happier with those numbers for Lupe!

[Choco]

That's not good for Avril, but it's expected. WTH has been a good hit, and I like the album, but it didn't really set the charts on fire, and the lack of promo isn't helping either.

[Deleted]

YASSSS Lupe! :o Amazing numbers, pleasantly surprised. Avril....well there's barely any hype or promo so not surprised there at all.

[#LisaRinna]

Mar 9, 2011 17:08:55 GMT -5 @swella said:

YASSSS Lupe! :o Amazing numbers, pleasantly surprised.

+1

[Deleted]

:( OMG! That sucks for Avril!! It's a really good album! Nice for Lupe though!

[Push The Button]

Why would Avril have debuted above Bionic?

[Honeymoon]

Bionic's opening numbers weren't awful considering the lack of lead hit single but it's the fact that the album completely plummeted from there that made it such a commercial disappointment. If Avril's album stays somewhat consistent and has some more hits off of it then I can see it approaching Gold status which is still respectable for her at this point in her career (and after 4 years between albums)

[BadRomance]

Terrible numbers for Avril,
Still, was there any promotion?

[reidster]

Aww. I'm disappointed with Avril's numbers. Hopefully this, along with what songs are doing better on iTunes, will make RCA realize they need to release something substantial, and not another bratty anthem.

[tsr]

Disappointed at Avril's numbers, but happy for Sara Evans! For an artist who hasn't released a real studio album in 6 years, and a single that's not even in the top 10 at country radio yet, 40-45K is pretty great!

[slicknickshady]

Food And Liquor was not Grammy Award Winning.

It lost Best Rap Album to Ludacris "Release Therapy". Surprised HITS doesnt fact check.

Great Numbers for him though.

[pnobelysk]

solid for glee..

i was hoping avril would sell as much as miley and xtina (since their single situations are similar) and she still can. i think what puts her under xtina is that she didnt do a lot of promo unlike xtina

[singingsparrow]

Am I the only one who is not remotely surprised by Avril's numbers?

Her current single is representative of the core dilemma she is facing in this phase of her career. She entered the previous decade strongly, thriving on the persona of an "anti-Britney" that, in contrast to her perceived image by many at the time, to be less polished and diva-like and more aggressive and DIY-driven but still safe and listenable for mainstream radio..............and during that time, there was less competition, with Pink being her main chart rival riding on that image. Her appeal resonated and, inevitably, "Let Go" became a breakout success.

Then she would hold her own on through the "Under My Skin" era because of her intention to tackle more mature topics. Frankly, I think there were already visible fissures in her foundation during the "The Best Damn Thing" era, where it felt like she was somewhat forcefully retreating back to mainstream radio instant gratification with a more poppy sound...............but it didn't matter none because she got one massive hit ("Girlfriend") that era that effectively overshadowed the reality that her subsequent releases all lacked staying power (I don't know anyone who still hears "When You're Gone" on the airwaves).

I think "The Best Damn Thing" ultimately was as much a curse as it was a blessing for Avril. It was a blessing in that she got a career-defining hit single out of that, and satisfying enough sales to go with it..............but a curse in that the image she established her career on was eroding, and had little remaining to project with it anyway. Her perception of Britney Spears and more hyped and/or overproduced divas may ring as true as ever to many................yet going with a "what you see is what you get" image, or perhaps a "this is me, and I don't care if you can't accept it" image has a drawback in that you can only say so much and, conversely, when you try venturing out of the box you look calculative and pandering.

"What the Hell", to me anyway, just represents that struggle to me. Especially with many more artists now seizing upon that pro-"individual"/pro-"being yourself" image that Avril initially thrived on, and anteing up with shocking music videos dripping with emotional realism, use of the F-word and appeal to the GLBTQI community among other things.............Avril just can't help but seem outdated to many...............and "What The Hell" just drips with desperation in a last-ditch drive to cater to the same listeners who are enamored with Katy Perry and Pink primarily at the moment, who also sing frequently without regret about messing around.

Avril is enduring an image crisis, and I think the sales reflect that more than anything. Perhaps the rest of her new album is rich in emotion and acoustic leanings as she has promised repeatedly in the press (I've yet to hear it)..............but singles have become a dominant medium again in an age of declining album sales, and Lavigne has no one to blame but herself for allowing the anomaly to be the lead release.

Namaste,
Lisping Hibiscus

[HolidayGuy]

Bionic's debut numbers were disappointing, even considering the lead single's performance. We've seen other acts top 150K or 200K with singles that weren't huge radio hits. And, we can talk about the declining market all we want, but there's still the potential to debut with an attractive number, as we've seen.

Barring another decent radio hit, Avril's album may suffer a similar fate to Bionic.

[Honeymoon]

Mar 9, 2011 19:16:54 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Bionic's debut numbers were disappointing, even considering the lead single's performance. .

Well sure but I think people regard it as a failure more because it so quickly disappeared rather than its debut. I personally was not expecting Bionic to do much more than it ended up opening with based on the lead single's performance. If Bionic went onto selling a respectable amount people would have now overlooked/forgotten about its mediocre opening sales