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Post by when the pawn... on Jun 1, 2011 15:01:54 GMT -5
GAGA AGAIN, BUT EXPECT A DROP OFF Death Cab, Vedder, My Morning Jacket, Floggin Molly Debut
June 1, 2011
Lady Gaga will return at #1 next week, but expect a far greater drop off than usual, thanks to the absence of Amazon’s 99 cents deal, which was responsible for 460k of the 1.1 million opening sales garnered by Born This Way last week. That’s based on reports from those music retailers who weren’t busy chasing Sarah Palin’s tour bus stops.
Among the albums which hit the streets this week, Atlantic indie darlings Death Cab For Cutie’s seventh studio effort, Codes and Keys, and first since 2008’s Narrow Stairs, looks set for the highest debut, between 90-100k.
Pearl Jam front man Eddie Vedder’s Monkeywrench/Universal Republic solo album, Ukulele Songs, appears to be in the 60-70k range.
Critically acclaimed ATO/RED Louisville rockers My Morning Jacket’s Circuital is on target for between 40-45k.
Borstal Beat Irish rockers Flogging Molly’s Speed of Darkness, recorded in Detroit as a “call to action inspired by the collapse of the U.S. economy and the resilience of mankind’, should do 20-25k.
The market was up 23% vs. last week, up 34% vs. same week last year and now flat year to date. And, as we all know, flat is the new up.
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David
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Post by David on Jun 1, 2011 15:03:21 GMT -5
GET IT GAGA!
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bibliotheque
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Post by bibliotheque on Jun 1, 2011 15:04:44 GMT -5
I wish they'd have given us a ballpark figure for BTW.
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Post by when the pawn... on Jun 1, 2011 15:05:32 GMT -5
I'm nervously expecting 175-215k. Hoping for 225-250k.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Jun 1, 2011 15:06:17 GMT -5
I'm going to guess 190-210k for Gaga.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2011 15:07:00 GMT -5
Yeah, it will collapse
2 weeks at #1 is all this album will likely get
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Jun 1, 2011 15:08:30 GMT -5
^ That was to be expected. I'm actually not shocked that Amazon did what they did. The timing was there and it will get people to use Amazon's cloud at least temporarily.
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Wave.
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Post by Wave. on Jun 1, 2011 15:12:10 GMT -5
That reign went over very fast,imo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2011 15:14:42 GMT -5
"Lady Gaga will return at #1 next week, but expect a far greater drop off than usual, thanks to the absence of Amazon’s 99 cents deal, which was responsible for 460k of the 1.1 million opening sales garnered by Born This Way last week"
Wonder what the percentage drop will be! And wow 460k at Amazon alone? That 99 Cent deal was a killer!
Good numbers for Death Cab!
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spooky21
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Post by spooky21 on Jun 1, 2011 15:21:30 GMT -5
If BTW drops below 250K in the second week, it will be pretty disappointing for Interscope in the long term given the sheer amount of money they dropped in promoting this album. Without any sure fire monster hits left on the album, this will likely end up dragging it's way to 2 - 2.5MM. A big disappointment if you ask me.
A bit too early to call, but I really don't think this album will have legs.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 1, 2011 15:24:04 GMT -5
It very well may drop below 250K, as a 78% dip would be around 242K.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2011 15:24:49 GMT -5
I'm expecting a drop of somewhere between 80 and 85%.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 1, 2011 15:30:38 GMT -5
If BTW drops below 250K in the second week, it will be pretty disappointing for Interscope in the long term given the sheer amount of money they dropped in promoting this album. Without any sure fire monster hits left on the album, this will likely end up dragging it's way to 2 - 2.5MM. A big disappointment if you ask me. A bit too early to call, but I really don't think this album will have legs. What do you mean without any surefire hits? TEOG is doing well. I'm sure singles #4-#5 have been picked out.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Jun 1, 2011 15:31:39 GMT -5
I think it'd be more helpful to imagine what the drop would have been without the Amazon sale. If it had sold 700-750k, a drop to around 200k would be pretty normal for a big release.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 1, 2011 15:33:18 GMT -5
Well, yeah, but anything topping 1m is likely to see a bigger percentage drop than most releases, anyhow.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2011 15:43:11 GMT -5
I think it'd be more helpful to imagine what the drop would have been without the Amazon sale. If it had sold 700-750k, a drop to around 200k would be pretty normal for a big release. But since 460k people bought it from Amazon, the second week is going to be even smaller. I predict 175k, 120k for the following week, and then slowly reach 2.5million by the end of 2011.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2011 16:13:34 GMT -5
The Amazon deal really must have worked out for them because they are selling Beyonce's new album for 4 cents in a few weeks. :o
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jink
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Post by jink on Jun 1, 2011 16:16:41 GMT -5
If BTW drops below 250K in the second week, it will be pretty disappointing for Interscope in the long term given the sheer amount of money they dropped in promoting this album. Without any sure fire monster hits left on the album, this will likely end up dragging it's way to 2 - 2.5MM. A big disappointment if you ask me. A bit too early to call, but I really don't think this album will have legs. The Edge of Glory looks like it has another two months before it peaks. Then there are a handful of songs that could do quite well. I don't think Interscope is worried; Troy Carter and Gaga have a lot of plans for this album.
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hitseeker.
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Post by hitseeker. on Jun 1, 2011 16:27:10 GMT -5
The Amazon deal really must have worked out for them because they are selling Beyonce's new album for 4 cents in a few weeks. :o is that true? People will freak out more than they did with Gaga On topic, this will see a huge drop indeed without the Amazon deal, it'll sell around 200k I predict, which isn't bad at all, it'll push the album sales' up to 1.300.000+
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Minimalism
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Post by Minimalism on Jun 1, 2011 16:58:01 GMT -5
The Amazon deal really must have worked out for them because they are selling Beyonce's new album for 4 cents in a few weeks. :o At this rate, pretty soon Amazon would actually give you money for 'buying' something.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Jun 1, 2011 19:28:49 GMT -5
200K for GaGa!
Lady Gaga's 'Born This Way' To Remain At No. 1 Next Week June 01, 2011 By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles
After Lady Gaga's historic start atop the Billboard 200 chart with 1.11 million sold of her newest album, "Born This Way," according to Nielsen SoundScan, the diva will most certainly spend a second frame at No. 1 next week.
While it's too early to gauge exactly how many copies "Born This Way" will move in week number two, estimates suggest it could sell around 200,000 by June 3. While that would represent a staggering drop from her No. 1 debut, it's not unusual to see albums that are heavily front-loaded in terms of first-week sales fall off a cliff in their second week.
The top debut next week will come from Death Cab For Cutie's latest set, "Codes and Keys," which could shift perhaps 90,000. And Eddie Vedder's second solo album, "Ukulele Songs," may start with 60,000. Both sets are aiming for a launch in the top five of the Billboard 200.
Also driving towards the top 10 are My Morning Jacket's "Circuital" and Flogging Molly's "Speed of Darkness."
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 1, 2011 19:30:55 GMT -5
^If it ends up around 200K, that would be roughly an 82% dip- expected.
And where in the world does it say that Amazon will sell Beyonce's album for 4 cents?
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floridagrl
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Post by floridagrl on Jun 1, 2011 19:34:00 GMT -5
What about Adele? They left her out?
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 1, 2011 19:35:17 GMT -5
^She'll probably be No. 2. Tomorrow, we'll see with HITS' weakend update. :)
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floridagrl
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Post by floridagrl on Jun 1, 2011 19:38:59 GMT -5
^She'll probably be No. 2. Tomorrow, we'll see with HITS' weakend update. :) Ahhh so.......
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 1, 2011 19:40:39 GMT -5
^If Adele holds up well, she should be No. 2. Though DCFC may challenge for No. 2 if Adele drops below 100K.
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David
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Post by David on Jun 1, 2011 19:46:21 GMT -5
Tbh, given all the promo, discounts, etc that went into week one and leading up to week one, that's not that bad of a drop. Bigger than normal, yes, but her first week wasn't like anything we have seen on the music scene in a LONG time.
I think the album will have legs. Despite getting "luke warm" reception on some forums, it has a great rating on iTunes, metacritic, etc. The album is definitely a grower and I would rather not hear about how "bad" the album is from someone who listened only once or twice. It's one of my biggest pet peeves when people dismiss songs or albums without actually giving them a chance.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Jun 1, 2011 19:49:32 GMT -5
My own predictions 1. Gaga 221k 2. Adele 122k 3. Death Cab 97k
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Post by slicknickshady on Jun 1, 2011 20:47:15 GMT -5
Eminem - MMLP - scanned 2.5 after two weeks.
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Post by Fat Ass Kelly Price on Jun 1, 2011 20:50:32 GMT -5
I'll say in the range of 167k-222k, which is a pretty broad range. I'm guess more on the latter end though.
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