Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Sept 14, 2011 14:28:29 GMT -5
LADY A ALL THE WAY Capitol Nashville/EMI Country Trio Will Debut #1 With Close to 300k
September 14, 2011
Lady Antebellum not only Own the Night, they will top next week’s HITS Album sales chart as well.
The pop-country trio’s Capitol Nashville/EMI follow-up to last year’s 3.6 million selling Need You Now, is set to debut at #1 next Tuesday, with a total that should be between 275-300k. Need You Now was released back in January 2010 with 481k in first-week sales.
That’s from one-day sales estimates from those music retailers who haven’t paved paradise and put up a parking lot…or a Five Guys hamburger joint.
Next highest debut should be Big Machine/Valory Music Group country-rocker Brantley Gilbert, with a deluxe version of the album, Halfway to Heaven, which is looking at sales figures of 45-50k in its first week, thanks to the hit single, “Country Must Be Country Wide.”
Atlantic’s new self-titled Staind album, the Aaron Lewis-led band’s first since 2008’s The Illusion of Progress, and seventh studio effort overall, should do between 40-45k.
Roadrunner/Atlantic’s veteran Berklee School of Music-bred prog-rockers Dream Theater releases their 12th studio album, A Dramatic Turn of Events, which is slated for an estimated 30-35k, the same amount as Ferrett/WB/ADA Dayton, OH, Christian metalcore group The Devil Wears Prada’s Dead Throne.
Megaforce metal vets Anthrax’s Worship Music, their first since 2003’s We’ve Come for You All, looks headed for sales of 24-27k.
UMe Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee Alice Cooper’s Welcome 2 My Nightmare, the sequel to his 1975 solo debut, for a projected 20-22k
ATO/RED’s Primus returns with Green Naugahyde, their first studio album in 12 years (since 1999’s Antipop) as Les Claypool and company eye a 19-21k sales bow.
Zuma Rock’s independently released new Bush album, The Sea of Memories, buoyed by its hit Rock single, “The Sound of Winter,” appears on track for 18-20k.
Equal Vision Troy, MI, rock band We Came as Romans’ sophomore album, Understanding What We’ve Grown to Be, will bow with 17-19k in first-week sales.
Album sales are down 17% vs. last week, up 14% vs. same week last year and up 3% year to date. Track Sales are down 5% vs. last week, up 6% vs. same week last year and up 11% year to date. TEA (Track Equivalent Album) sales are down 14% vs. last week, up 11% vs. same week last year and up 5% year to date.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 14, 2011 14:53:59 GMT -5
UMe Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductee Alice Cooper’s Welcome 2 My Nightmare, the sequel to his 1975 solo debut, for a projected 20-22k
WOW
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Post by singingsparrow on Sept 14, 2011 14:55:37 GMT -5
As I said before, Lady Antebellum just set themselves up for ridiculously high expectations to live up to, and if these numbers are of any indication...........they're just not going to live up to them.
These numbers are by no means awful, or even bad necessarily...........but what they do say is that Lady Antebellum's audience is largely unsustainable. Much of it flocked to the breakout success of the single of the same name from "Need You Now"............and when much the rest of their material runs in this all-too-familiar adult contemporary/light rock vein that has been done numerous times to death before...........how can you expect to maintain a large commercial following in the long haul?
I wouldn't panic looking at these numbers, but I would be disappointed. Especially considering "Need You Now" was a January release, and that the sales remained steady due to the monstrous success of the title track. Without anything remotely resembling a hit of that magnitude, only further Country hits can ensure any form of staying power for this album (and I still doubt "American Honey" and "Our Kind Of Love" did all that much for "Need You Now", as both were quickly forgotten about).
I'm wondering if "Own The Night" will even sell a third of what "Need You Now" has sold at this point.
Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS
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thehellion
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Post by thehellion on Sept 14, 2011 15:15:27 GMT -5
Some interesting projections here this week. Dream Theater might just miss out on their 2nd Top 10 album depending on how many of this week's Top 10 is still there next week. I can see at least five of this week's albums still being in the Top 10 seven days from now. DT are guaranteed a place in the Top 20 though.
Another band that could be in the Top 20 for the first time since 1993 is Anthrax. That would be a massive improvement on their last album which missed the Top 100 and sold 10,000 copies in its opening week.
Alice Cooper and Primus are also likely to put up solid results next week.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Sept 14, 2011 15:17:02 GMT -5
Not bad for Lady Antebellum... though they need a crossover smash to avoid a "Femme Fatale" scenario. Although maybe the Holiday season will help this album sell like Sugarland's album did last year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2011 15:18:15 GMT -5
I'm wondering if "Own The Night" will even sell a third of what "Need You Now" has sold at this point. You said you are not panicking, and yet this statement says otherwise. "Own The Night" can sell 1.2 million, without question.
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Sept 14, 2011 15:41:53 GMT -5
I wasn't even aware Primus were still around!
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 14, 2011 15:47:01 GMT -5
"Need You Now," though, didn't cross over to non-country formats BIG until after the release of the second album. Those other singles did hit No. 1 on the country chart, too, so I'm sure they helped keep album sales going. However, the new album is unlikely to sell anywhere near the last album's total.
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Black Jesus
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Post by Black Jesus on Sept 14, 2011 15:52:40 GMT -5
Mediocre sales (well, in Lady Antebellum standards) for a mediocre album, IMO.
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thehellion
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Post by thehellion on Sept 14, 2011 16:03:22 GMT -5
I wasn't even aware Primus were still around! They originally got back together 8 years ago. They put out an EP and spent much of the 2000s touring North America. Its only been in the last year that they decided to make a new album and tour outside North America (they finally played Europe for the first time in 14 years this summer).
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PDC1987
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Post by PDC1987 on Sept 14, 2011 17:04:24 GMT -5
Roadrunner/Atlantic’s veteran Berklee School of Music-bred prog-rockers Dream Theater releases their 12th studio album, A Dramatic Turn of Events, which is slated for an estimated 30-35k, the same amount as Ferrett/WB/ADA Dayton, OH, Christian metalcore group The Devil Wears Prada’s Dead Throne. Ch no.
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#LisaRinna
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Post by #LisaRinna on Sept 14, 2011 17:31:24 GMT -5
How much did Lady A open with last time?
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Wavey✨️
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Post by Wavey✨️ on Sept 14, 2011 17:58:23 GMT -5
How much did Lady A open with last time? 481k
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2011 18:00:24 GMT -5
A country album not having a 500K opening (or whatever) does not mean it will fail or there is anything to worry about. Most country albums (unlike rap albums) do not fly off the shelves the first day
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kml567
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Post by kml567 on Sept 14, 2011 18:10:33 GMT -5
Lady A will probably end up scanning 300-350k next week. HITS first-day projections are notorious for underestimating country albums. They way underestimated Luke Bryan and Eric Church earlier this year, and country albums usually hold up sales better for the latter half of the week.
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Sept 14, 2011 20:03:57 GMT -5
I think the Lady A album will do 2 million when said and done, which all things considered would be a nice result. Hopefully they score a pop hit or two with this album
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2011 22:50:45 GMT -5
"Need You Now," though, didn't cross over to non-country formats BIG until after the release of the second album. Those other singles did hit No. 1 on the country chart, too, so I'm sure they helped keep album sales going. However, the new album is unlikely to sell anywhere near the last album's total. True...but "Need You Now" was MUCH more of a hit on the country charts than "Just A Kiss" was. NYN was a 5-week #1 hit over the holidays...and we haven't had a song dominate the chart like that since then. Heck, even 3-week #1 airplay hits are rare. NYN was simply huge and the digital sales for it definitely indicated that the interest in the album would be high, even though the title track was just beginning to cross over. I think this album will sell well...and I think it will easily go 2x Platinum before the end, maybe even more. I disagree as well that "American Honey" and "Our Kind Of Love" did nothing for the last album...certainly, they didn't do as much as NYN did, but both spent 2 weeks atop the country singles chart, and the album was selling well throughout all of 2010 and into early 2011...long after NYN was done with its crossover run, even. I think that OTN could open with 300-350k...which is solid. The right singles will do it well..."We Owned The Night" is already moving up the country chart quickly (#18 after just 4 weeks--ranking it among the top 5 quickest climbing songs of the year so far). "Cold As Stone" is a great song--definitely not crossover material, but it's the kind of song that could move albums...because it's just a very strong song. However, "Dancin' Away With My Heart" and "Wanted You More" would certainly be big hits on country radio (even though both, especially the latter, have hardly any traces of country instrumentation), and both definitely have crossover appeal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2011 23:04:34 GMT -5
They are still going to go platinum so...
They're not a POP act whose sales will dip dramatically after the first week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2011 23:09:14 GMT -5
True they are not a pop act. Crossover hits or pop hits aren't really necessary here
They will sell well over longer periods of time than pop acts
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 15, 2011 1:41:44 GMT -5
I think the Lady A album will do 2 million when said and done, which all things considered would be a nice result. Hopefully they score a pop hit or two with this album I thought Just a Kiss crossed over? I can see Own the Night going something like 300k, 150k, 80k, 50k .... Which means it's going to scan a million when Christmas shopping kicks off.
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guyl44
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Post by guyl44 on Sept 15, 2011 8:48:05 GMT -5
Lady A may not be a pop act, but their success last time around was mostly due to their pop exposure. Sure, the other singles that were country hits from NYN probably gave it some longevity, but I don't think it would have remained that stable (59 consecutive weeks in the top 30) if it weren't for the lead single's pop success. So in that respect, Lady A is an act that may not be pop per se, but leans heavily on pop exposure to sell well.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 15, 2011 8:55:18 GMT -5
^It wasn't the pop success that gave the album its 481K opening, though. :)
I'm sure the pop crossover success of NYN helped keep the album in the upper reaches of the charts, but there are country acts who get little to no pop play that have enjoyed consistency.
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Post by singingsparrow on Sept 15, 2011 12:43:36 GMT -5
^It wasn't the pop success that gave the album its 481K opening, though. :) I'm sure the pop crossover success of NYN helped keep the album in the upper reaches of the charts, but there are country acts who get little to no pop play that have enjoyed consistency. It's because the title track was such a colossal crossover hit why this album isn't going to have consistent sales with its predecessor, and won't be as consistent a seller as top-tier Country artists who haven't demonstrated notable crossover appeal to Pop (Luke Bryan, Kenny Chesney, Miranda Lambert). Some have predicted a double platinum certification here. That's NOT going to happen unless they have another hit of the magnitude of "Need You Now". "Dancin' Away With My Heart" would be their best bet at that, but I think while it will be a Hot AC hit, it probably won't strike lightning twice at Mainstream Top 40. Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 15, 2011 12:57:03 GMT -5
I would compare Lady A to Jason Aldean: both have big country following and also fans among pop listeners. Just a Kiss wouldn't had debuted in Top 10 without the demand that's for sure.
Double platinum might be a bit hard but no way the new album will fail to reach 1.3-1.5 million.
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Minor Scratch
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Post by Minor Scratch on Sept 15, 2011 13:17:30 GMT -5
I think there may be a bit of a sold out factor as an answer to the lower than expected sales. Lady Antebellum doesn't have the same audience as someone like Taylor Swift, who can manage a Country and Pop fanbase more easily with her younger fanbase. Older fans who did enjoy Lady A's music before the success of NYN are probably a little more conservative with their choice of Country music and may have moved on to something less Pop. It also doesn't help that this new album is full of more of the same generic country pop/rock.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2011 15:19:39 GMT -5
It's because the title track was such a colossal crossover hit why this album isn't going to have consistent sales with its predecessor, and won't be as consistent a seller as top-tier Country artists who haven't demonstrated notable crossover appeal to Pop (Luke Bryan, Kenny Chesney, Miranda Lambert). Some have predicted a double platinum certification here. That's NOT going to happen unless they have another hit of the magnitude of "Need You Now". "Dancin' Away With My Heart" would be their best bet at that, but I think while it will be a Hot AC hit, it probably won't strike lightning twice at Mainstream Top 40. Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS I'm going to have to disagree here. I think you're clearly underestimating them...as HolidayGuy points out, the NYN album opened with 481k in January...and that was largely BEFORE the lead single crossed over. There are a lot of signs here for the 2nd album to sell well. First, "Just A Kiss" and the iTunes promo singles debuted very well on the Hot 100. Yet, "Just A Kiss", while quite the hit, wasn't nearly the hit that "Need You Now" was on country radio...so that leads to a smaller opening week...closer to 300k instead of 481k. JAK is still charting on AC radio, I believe, and is getting sent to pop, correct? I doubt it will do as well as NYN did--that seems pretty much a sure thing--but it could make enough noise to help album sales at least somewhat. "We Owned The Night" is racing up the country chart, and the correct future singles will do so as well...and, as has been mentioned, there are a few notable songs with crossover potential. If even one of those does well at AC/CHR radio, I think the album will have serious "legs", stronger than most people might think...because I don't see anyway that they won't score big country hits, and the multi-format hits would be a plus, certainly. But with country albums, the artists that are getting the most airplay exposure naturally tend to sell well...and so even a string of country hits is going to keep this album selling well. If they're around 1 million by the holiday season or so, I think they'll hit 2 million possibly by late 2012, or more than likely early 2013. Other A-list country stars can still hit 2 million, even without big crossover hits...and I truly think Lady A is one of the top acts on country radio. Jason Aldean has had a huge year, and he hasn't really had a ton of crossover success...DYWS did fairly well on AC radio, but it was "Dirt Road Anthem" that really drove the album sales, and that's not a pop song. Carrie Underwood's last studio album still eclipsed 2 million, and that was without any bonafide crossover hits...and some weaker country singles, even. I don't think Lady A is as big as Carrie, but their willingness to send songs to AC/pop radio will make up for their lower sales numbers (compared to someone like Carrie) from country radio exposure only. I could be wrong, but at this point I'm confident the album will hit 2x Platinum before all is said and done.
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microcuts
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Post by microcuts on Sept 15, 2011 15:31:18 GMT -5
I wasn't even aware Primus were still around! Green Naugahyde is a fine album! It's been way too long of wait lol.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Sept 15, 2011 19:20:49 GMT -5
So proud of Adelegend. :'(
Lady Antebellum will debut at #1 next week with a total that now appears to be well north of 300k. Adele will log her 29th non-consecutive week in the Top 3, breaking the 28 weeks set by Hootie & the Blowfish's Cracked Rear View. She will have a way to go, however, before setting the record for most weeks in the Top 3, held by Alanis Morissette's Jagged Little Pill, which logged 46 weeks. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:
*Lady Antebellum (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 320-340k Adele (XL/Columbia) 105-115k Lil Wayne (Cash Money/Universal Republic) 105-115k *Brantley Gilbert (Big Machine) 47-52k George Strait (MCA Nashville) 40-45k *Staind (Atlantic) 40-45k The Beatles 1 (Capitol/EMI) 35-40k *Dream Theater (Roadrunner) 35-40k Jay Z & Kanye West (Roc-a-Fella/Roc Nation) 30-35k Red Hot Chili Peppers (Warner Bros.) 28-32k *The Devil Wears Prada (Ferrett) 28-32k *Anthrax (Megaforce) 24-27k Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 23-27k Foster the People (Columbia) 21-24k Jason Aldean (Broken Bow) 21-24k
*Debuts (9/15p)
And BETTER sales for Lady Antebellum.
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Post by when the pawn... on Sept 15, 2011 19:24:31 GMT -5
No Beyonce, Lady Gaga, Mumford & Sons, Maroon 5 or Katy Perry.
Lil' Wayne looks on a similar track as BTW.
Adele just keeps. on. going.
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Post by Push The Button on Sept 15, 2011 20:03:47 GMT -5
Wow - virtually no drop for 1.
Even though it's not a fair comparison, Lil Wayne and Gaga's third weeks are very close.
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