Billboard Hot 100: 12/31/11

[NeRD]

Well either way, its gonna be very difficult for her to get the #1 next week, especially since they didnt release it today giving it a full day of sales.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2011 8:38:57 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

After all the fuss about Katy Perry (several pages) people think Madonna of all acts will be number one and Katy's attempt won't? Sometimes Pulse just confuses me.

Neither is definite, but Madonna has the inherently better set-up - her single will be 'fresh,' is getting one of the biggest promotional debuts ever, and if I'm not mistaken she's releasing the song to radio one week before it goes on sale. So there will then be two full weeks of A.I. points to add to the first-week sales as well.

There will also be less competition in February (and the competition that is there may be less stiff) than what Katy has now in December. Though news of the remix has been released it doesn't feel all that 'hyped' to the public. This could be another LFN-featuring-Missy situation where the remix doesn't sell enough to even get the featured artist a credit on the chart. But at least LFN was already within striking distance of #1 and only needed a little boost...TOTGA has a huge airplay gap between it and WFL that it would have to overcome and she has to hope no other song overcomes that gap even more. She likely won't be the only song on sale the week after Christmas either, so that supposed advantage will also be gone. I just don't think the remix is going to do the trick in these next two weeks. Or maybe they're not concerned about that b/c they expect the song to squeeze its way to the top in January, when the post-Christmas rush is over. But if that was the case they probably should have waited until January to release the remix.

Not saying that TOTGA absolutely won't do it, but I actually think if Capitol and Katy really want a sixth #1 they should probably put their money on single #7 doing it (Hummingbird Heartbeat or Peacock); the odds are simply slightly against TOTGA at the moment.

[badrobot]

Madonna hitting #1 is pretty unlikely (particularly with this song, which, unless it features a total makeover beyond just adding some raps, is pretty average).

But if she does she'll rewrite some records. I think she'll instantly be the oldest woman to have a #1 single. And if I'm not mistaken she'll be the only artist over 40 to have a #1 song since... herself back in 2000 with "Music." She'll also have #1s in four (consecutive) decades.

[lawmak]

Wow thanks 2m for the article..I surely would've miss it..basically I agree with the answer..

[HolidayGuy]

And what would some viewpoints of it being average have to do with its chart potential, br? :) I agree, though, that No. 1 is unlikely, but I guess there's always a small chance- it's not like we're talking about an act who hasn't had a top 10 hit in eons.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Dec 19, 2011 12:33:38 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Madonna hitting #1 is pretty unlikely (particularly with this song, which, unless it features a total makeover beyond just adding some raps, is pretty average).

But if she does she'll rewrite some records. I think she'll instantly be the oldest woman to have a #1 single. And if I'm not mistaken she'll be the only artist over 40 to have a #1 song since... herself back in 2000 with "Music." She'll also have #1s in four (consecutive) decades.

It's weird to think she'll be oldest female to hit #1. Cher SEEMED much older when she set record in 1999. BTW - If they really want it to hit number 1, they should have a no-rap version. Most of Madonna's fans are not interested in a rent-a-rapper nonsense verse. The only way this would really work is if was a seamless as Snoop on CG.

[bat1990]

Dec 19, 2011 13:17:47 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

It's weird to think she'll be oldest female to hit #1. Cher SEEMED much older when she set record in 1999. BTW - If they really want it to hit number 1, they should have a no-rap version. Most of Madonna's fans are not interested in a rent-a-rapper nonsense verse. The only way this would really work is if was a seamless as Snoop on CG.

Where can we petition Interscope for this?????

[badrobot]

Dec 19, 2011 12:46:15 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

And what would some viewpoints of it being average have to do with its chart potential, br? :) I agree, though, that No. 1 is unlikely, but I guess there's always a small chance- it's not like we're talking about an act who hasn't had a top 10 hit in eons.

I'd argue that if you are a currently hot superstar racking up hits, you could score a hit with a not-so-great song just by virtue of being popular in general.

But for someone like Madonna, who has only had 3 top tens in the past 10 years, I think it will take a really great song to gain any traction.

And I should note I'm talking US here -- she's fared much better just about everywhere else during recent years.

[Deleted]

Cher's oldest woman to hit #1 record is quite safe

Unless, Madonna plans a duet with Rihanna, Katy Perry or some other artist who frequently is at the top today

[Enigma.]

*cough* Me Against the Music *cough*

[jgizzle89]

7. JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 94.796 (+ 1.021)

I can't even rememeber the last time a pure rap song (one without a sing-song hook) has done this well on radio. It's practically unheard of.

[moore746]

Dec 19, 2011 14:28:18 GMT -5 @2m said:

Cher's oldest woman to hit #1 record is quite safe

Unless, Madonna plans a duet with Rihanna, Katy Perry or some other artist who frequently is at the top today

Nicki Minaj and MIA are going to be on the song.

[chartfreak]

Tomorrow 12/20 is download day for Marry the Night.

[josh]

Dec 19, 2011 15:34:06 GMT -5 jgizzle89 said:

7. JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 94.796 (+ 1.021)

I can't even rememeber the last time a pure rap song (one without a sing-song hook) has done this well on radio. It's practically unheard of.

And it's doing so well on Pop too! It's crazy!

Dec 19, 2011 16:32:24 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Tomorrow 12/20 is download day for Marry the Night.

Let's see how much that actually does...

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2011 16:11:01 GMT -5 moore746 said:

Dec 19, 2011 14:28:18 GMT -5 @2m said:

Cher's oldest woman to hit #1 record is quite safe

Unless, Madonna plans a duet with Rihanna, Katy Perry or some other artist who frequently is at the top today

Nicki Minaj and MIA are going to be on the song.

So, are Nicki Minaj and MIA big enough artists to bring Madonna a #1 hit in her 50s?

It doesn't happen all the time, like someone cited Britney Spears and it nearly happened with Madonna a few years ago but it does happen

[badrobot]

Have "download days" ever worked for anyone?

[moore746]

Dec 19, 2011 16:45:48 GMT -5 @2m said:

Dec 19, 2011 16:11:01 GMT -5 moore746 said:

Nicki Minaj and MIA are going to be on the song.

So, are Nicki Minaj and MIA big enough artists to bring Madonna a #1 hit in her 50s?

It doesn't happen all the time, like someone cited Britney Spears and it nearly happened with Madonna a few years ago but it does happen

If the song is released on iTunes right after the Super Bowl performance (which will also feature those two), it has a STRONG chance imo.

[ListenToItTwice]

From Billboard.com

Chart Highlights offers a sneak peek at a select group of Billboard charts every Monday. Find out the top songs, Greatest Gainers and debuts on the surveys listed below.

All our charts are refreshed on billboard.com every Thursday.


Pop Songs
*** No. 1 *** "We Found Love" Rihanna Featuring Calvin Harris
Greatest Gainer No. 18 "Set Fire To The Rain" Adele
Debut No. 37 "Young, Wild & Free" Snoop Dogg & Wiz Khalifa Featuring Bruno Mars
Debut No. 39 "Turn Me On" David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj


Adult Contemporary
*** No. 1 *** "All I Want For Christmas Is You" Michael Buble
Greatest Gainer No. 3 "All I Want For Christmas Is You (SuperFestive!)" Justin Bieber Duet With Mariah Carey
Debut No. 28 "Right Away" Gloria Estefan


Adult Pop Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Mr. Know It All" Kelly Clarkson
Greatest Gainer No. 8 "The One That Got Away" Katy Perry
Debut No. 34 "Love You Like A Love Song" Selena Gomez & The Scene
Debut No. 39 "Domino" Jessie J
Debut No. 40 "Don't Gotta Work It Out" Fitz & The Tantrums


Dance/Club Play Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Levels" Avicii
Greatest Gainer No. 15 "Marry The Night" Lady Gaga
Hot Shot Debut No. 42 "Drifting" Plumb With Dan Haseltine
Debut No. 48 "Test Drive" Jin Akanishi Featuring Jason Derulo
Debut No. 50 "Fly" Nicki Minaj Featuring Rihanna


Rap Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Ni**as in Paris" Jay Z Kanye West
Greatest Gainer No. 5 "Make Me Proud" Drake Featuring Nicki Minaj
Debut No. 20 "Gotta Have It" Jay Z Kanye West
Debut No. 23 "Take Care" Drake Featuring Rihanna
Debut No. 25 "Drank In My Cup" Kirko Bangz


Rock Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Lonely Boy" The Black Keys
Greatest Gainer No. 28 "Somebody That I Used To Know" Gotye Featuring Kimbra



Hot Shot Debut No. 34 "Tongue Tied" Grouplove
Debut No. 45 "Eyes Wide Open" Staind
Debut No. 47 "Undone" Aranda


Alternative Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Lonely Boy" The Black Keys
Greatest Gainer No. 29 "Tongue Tied" Grouplove
Debut No. 34 "Everybody Talks" Neon Trees
Debut No. 39 "A Warrior's Call" Volbeat


Country Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Keep Me In Mind" Zac Brown Band
Greatest Gainer No. 3 "Easy" Rascal Flatts Featuring Natasha Bedingfield
Hot Shot Debut No. 57 "Please Come Home For Christmas" Martina McBride


Latin Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Promise" Romeo Santos Featuring Usher
Greatest Gainer No. 3 "Ayer" Enrique Iglesias


Regional Mexican Songs
Greatest Gainer/*** No. 1 *** "Nada Iguales" La Adictiva Banda San Jose de Mesillas
Debut No. 34 "Tu Ya Eres Cosa Del Pasado" Fidel Rueda
Debut No. 35 "La Locura Automatica" Grupo Vizzio
Debut No. 39 "Mi Olvido" Banda Sinaloense MS De Sergio Lizarraga
Debut No. 40 "Ya Me Canse" Larry Hernandez


Latin Pop Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Promise" Romeo Santos Featuring Usher
Greatest Gainer No. 3 "Ayer" Enrique Iglesias
Debut No. 31 "Yo No Tengo Nah" Kany Garcia
Debut No. 33 "Te Regalo Una Promesa" Sie7e
Debut No. 38 "Set Fire To The Rain" Adele


Tropical Songs
Greatest Gainer/*** No. 1 *** "Ayer" Enrique Iglesias
Debut No. 14 "Bailando Por El Mundo" Juan Magan Featuring Pitbull & El Cata
Debut No. 37 "Solito En Navidad" 24 Horas
Debut No. 39 "Que Se Mueran" Romeo Santos


Christian Songs
*** No. 1 *** "Strong Enough To Save" Tenth Avenue North
Greatest Gainer/Hot Shot Debut No. 25 "Christmas Together" Jamie Grace
Debut No. 36 "We Three Kings" Hillsong
Debut No. 45 "The First Noel" tobyMac Featuring Owl City


Gospel Songs
*** No. 1 *** "In The Middle" Isaac Carree
Greatest Gainer No. 13 "Let The Church Say Amen" Andrae Crouch Featuring Marvin Winans
Debut No. 27 "Yet Love" Luther Barnes And The Sunset Jubilaires


Holiday Airplay
Greatest Gainer/*** No. 1 *** "All I Want For Christmas Is You" Mariah Carey
Debut No. 42 "Last Christmas" Taylor Swift
Debut No. 49 "Let It Snow" Boyz II Men

[NeRD]

So how many weeks does this make WFL #1 on Pop radio, and what is her longest running Pop #1?

[Verisimilitude]

Look at Natasha Bedingfield getting that country smash and Adele getting that Latin pop crossover hit.

[ListenToItTwice]

Dec 19, 2011 20:37:41 GMT -5 Verisimilitude said:

Look at Natasha Bedingfield getting that country smash and Adele getting that Latin pop crossover hit.

Genre-bending for 2012.

[pnobelysk]

Dec 19, 2011 12:23:42 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

Dec 19, 2011 8:38:57 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

After all the fuss about Katy Perry (several pages) people think Madonna of all acts will be number one and Katy's attempt won't? Sometimes Pulse just confuses me.

Neither is definite, but Madonna has the inherently better set-up - her single will be 'fresh,' is getting one of the biggest promotional debuts ever, and if I'm not mistaken she's releasing the song to radio one week before it goes on sale. So there will then be two full weeks of A.I. points to add to the first-week sales as well.

There will also be less competition in February (and the competition that is there may be less stiff) than what Katy has now in December. Though news of the remix has been released it doesn't feel all that 'hyped' to the public. This could be another LFN-featuring-Missy situation where the remix doesn't sell enough to even get the featured artist a credit on the chart. But at least LFN was already within striking distance of #1 and only needed a little boost...TOTGA has a huge airplay gap between it and WFL that it would have to overcome and she has to hope no other song overcomes that gap even more. She likely won't be the only song on sale the week after Christmas either, so that supposed advantage will also be gone. I just don't think the remix is going to do the trick in these next two weeks. Or maybe they're not concerned about that b/c they expect the song to squeeze its way to the top in January, when the post-Christmas rush is over. But if that was the case they probably should have waited until January to release the remix.

Not saying that TOTGA absolutely won't do it, but I actually think if Capitol and Katy really want a sixth #1 they should probably put their money on single #7 doing it (Hummingbird Heartbeat or Peacock); the odds are simply slightly against TOTGA at the moment.

I really doubt that last part. Without a re release, by the time an 7th single comes out, the digial interest just wont be there. It could squeeze platnium, but 2 million in the US have the album. if they are getting that 6th number one, it's this song

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Dec 19, 2011 13:17:47 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Dec 19, 2011 12:33:38 GMT -5 badrobot said:

Madonna hitting #1 is pretty unlikely (particularly with this song, which, unless it features a total makeover beyond just adding some raps, is pretty average).

But if she does she'll rewrite some records. I think she'll instantly be the oldest woman to have a #1 single. And if I'm not mistaken she'll be the only artist over 40 to have a #1 song since... herself back in 2000 with "Music." She'll also have #1s in four (consecutive) decades.

It's weird to think she'll be oldest female to hit #1. Cher SEEMED much older when she set record in 1999. BTW - If they really want it to hit number 1, they should have a no-rap version. Most of Madonna's fans are not interested in a rent-a-rapper nonsense verse. The only way this would really work is if was a seamless as Snoop on CG.

While I agree with the rap part, I feel like Nicki could be a natural fit and hopefully would be important enough to the song that she'd be needed for it to be complete.

[cesarams]

TODAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 148.327 (- 0.061)
2. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 113.936 (+ 2.546)
3. LMFAO - Sexy And I Know It: 106.443 (- 0.464)
4. DAVID GUETTA - Without You f/Usher: 105.308 (- 0.125)
5. KATY PERRY - The One That Got Away: 104.054 (+ 1.431)
6. JAY Z & KANYE WEST - N***** In Paris: 95.918 (+ 1.122) ▲
7. GYM CLASS HEROES - Stereo Hearts f/Adam Levine: 95.403 (- 0.934) ▼
8. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 93.852 (+ 1.415)
9. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 87.418 (- 0.760)
10. ADELE - Someone Like You: 85.358 (- 1.639)
11. DRAKE - Headlines: 79.837 (- 0.394)
12. T-PAIN - 5 O'clock f/Wiz Khalifa: 78.173 (+ 0.109)
13. J. COLE - Workout: 77.218 (+ 0.526)
14. KELLY CLARKSON - Mr. Know It All: 62.935 (- 0.108)
15. BIG SEAN - Dance (A$$): 62.073 (+ 0.520)
16. COBRA STARSHIP - You Make Me Feel... f/Sabi: 58.054 (- 0.816)
17. ZAC BROWN BAND - Keep Me In Mind: 51.110 (- 0.031)
18. JASON ALDEAN - Tattoos On This Town: 50.019 (- 0.495)
19. DRAKE - Make Me Proud f/Nicki Minaj: 50.010 (+ 0.813)
20. MARIAH CAREY - All I Want For Christmas Is...: 47.815 (+ 1.095)

OTHERS:

WALE - Lotus Flower Bomb f/Miguel: 47.038 (+ 1.228)
LADY ANTEBELLUM - Just A Kiss: 45.821 (- 0.767)
LMFAO - Party Rock Anthem: 45.801 (- 0.233)
RASCAL FLATTS - Easy: 45.980 (+ 0.286)
GAVIN DEGRAW - Not Over You: 44.254 (+ 0.459)
ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 43.772 (+ 1.933)
BEYONCE - Party f/Kanye & Andre: 41.675 (- 0.138)
SELENA GOMEZ & THE SCENE: Love You Like A Love Song: 41.235 (+ 0.808)
LUKE BRYAN - I Don't Want This Night To End: 40.891 (+ 0.610)
RIHANNA - You Da One: 36.654 (+ 0.246)
LADY GAGA - Marry The Night: 35.037 (+ 0.291)
JESSIE J - Domino: 31.165 (+ 0.774)
FRAY - Heartbeat: 24.737 (- 0.125)
BREATHE CAROLINA - Blackout: 21.537 (+ 0.444)
MICHAEL BUBLE - All I Want For Christmas Is...: 16.694 (+ 0.032)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 12.247 (+ 0.274)
BEYONCE - Countdown: 11.249 (+ 0.315)
BEYONCE - Love On Top: 11.178 (- 1.003)
AVRIL LAVIGNE - Wish You Were Here: 10.715 (- 0.010)
WILL. I. AM - T.H.E (The Hardest Ever): 4.391 (- 0.003)
NICKI MINAJ - Roman In Moscow: 0.695 (+ 0.016)

[Caviar]

It's interesting to watch MLJ and SLY go back & forth.

[Deleted]

This chart is gonna look ugly in a few days

[HolidayGuy]

But then come the update posted on Dec. 27, there should be big gains.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2011 21:28:34 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

Dec 19, 2011 12:23:42 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

Neither is definite, but Madonna has the inherently better set-up - her single will be 'fresh,' is getting one of the biggest promotional debuts ever, and if I'm not mistaken she's releasing the song to radio one week before it goes on sale. So there will then be two full weeks of A.I. points to add to the first-week sales as well.

There will also be less competition in February (and the competition that is there may be less stiff) than what Katy has now in December. Though news of the remix has been released it doesn't feel all that 'hyped' to the public. This could be another LFN-featuring-Missy situation where the remix doesn't sell enough to even get the featured artist a credit on the chart. But at least LFN was already within striking distance of #1 and only needed a little boost...TOTGA has a huge airplay gap between it and WFL that it would have to overcome and she has to hope no other song overcomes that gap even more. She likely won't be the only song on sale the week after Christmas either, so that supposed advantage will also be gone. I just don't think the remix is going to do the trick in these next two weeks. Or maybe they're not concerned about that b/c they expect the song to squeeze its way to the top in January, when the post-Christmas rush is over. But if that was the case they probably should have waited until January to release the remix.

Not saying that TOTGA absolutely won't do it, but I actually think if Capitol and Katy really want a sixth #1 they should probably put their money on single #7 doing it (Hummingbird Heartbeat or Peacock); the odds are simply slightly against TOTGA at the moment.

I really doubt that last part. Without a re release, by the time an 7th single comes out, the digial interest just wont be there. It could squeeze platnium, but 2 million in the US have the album. if they are getting that 6th number one, it's this song

'The One That Got Away' has been available digitally for over a year but yet it is #5 on itunes as single #6 even though 2 million already have the album

[josh]

It's that high because of the discount though... When it was full priced it was starting to fall. If there is a single #7, it will eventually get the discount and remix treatment that LFN and TOTGA have gotten.

[Heartless Angel]

Dec 20, 2011 13:01:21 GMT -5 josh said:

It's that high because of the discount though... When it was full priced it was starting to fall. If there is a single #7, it will eventually get the discount and remix treatment that LFN and TOTGA have gotten.

And when that happens...I can only imagine the fussing that will be going on here...