Pat the Cat
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Post by Pat the Cat on Jul 10, 2021 17:09:24 GMT -5
Ah, dang! Thanks for responding! :) As of June 20 per Top 40 Tracker: 3 weeks ago from tomorrow, Levitating was 450 points behind Positions. It is gaining on Positions by ~50 pts a week right now, although it was by about 60 pts on June 27. Therefore, estimate the gap between the two songs after tomorrow at about 300 points (the exact difference can be calculated with a little bit of effort that I'm not gonna put in lol). The biggest factor determining the rate of gap narrowing is Levitating's position - each spot on the ranking Positions drops is only a 1 point difference (maybe 2 if it creeps back into the top 15), but each spot for Levitating is worth 5 points until it is out of the top 10 (and even a couple spots after that). After tomorrow there will be 16 weeks left in the chart year, so Levitating will need to gain on Positions by at least 18 points or so each week on average to overtake it by chart year end. This is easily maintained as long as Levitating remains at least #8, but after that the points-per-week for each song will be closer than that. Each week (after tomorrow) that Levitating exceeds that average pace, the required average-per-week will decrease, however, and Deja Vu is the only song within a couple of weeks that will overtake Levitating (and KMM might drop beneath it soon-ish as well). To sum it up? It could still go either way, and it ultimately depends on Levitating itself. If Levitating has a slow descent over the next couple of months (abetted by not a lot of upward movement from lower songs), it will be on track to take #1 in the last few weeks of the year. If it drops out of the top 10 in the next 6-8 weeks or so though, I think it will come up a little short.
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Clode
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Post by Clode on Jul 10, 2021 21:02:19 GMT -5
Area21 pushed out of the top 50 already (again), sad. And the way Nelly got a summer hit with a song released in October that took over 6 months to go top 15 on pop after first hitting the top 50 - slay. But it would be cool for the AI to catch up to the spins just a lil bit Oh I see what you did there .
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musicbuff26
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Post by musicbuff26 on Jul 10, 2021 22:32:52 GMT -5
@pat the cat - I was thinking of the one that’s solely based on spin count. It was posted a while ago that Levitating was just inside the top 10, but that was at least a month ago. Thank you for this one! Hopefully she can pass Ari on both charts!
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 10, 2021 22:54:40 GMT -5
I was so scared LNX wouldn’t get to hold his number one but it’s not even close. I’m totally fine with a back-to-back Olivia number one situation after this week. 🏳️🌈 won!
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jul 11, 2021 6:11:31 GMT -5
TW | TW+ | Artist | Title | Spins | Spin+ | Bullet | Bullet+ | Aud | Aud+ | 1 | = | LIL NAS X | MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) | 19031 | +69 | 1053 | -123 | 62.609 | +0.110 | 2 | = | DOJA CAT | Kiss Me More f/Sza | 18368 | -51 | 152 | -211 | 60.082 | -0.009 | 3 | = | OLIVIA RODRIGO | good 4 u | 17713 | +168 | 1396 | -66 | 60.601 | +0.613 | 4 | = | DUA LIPA | Levitating | 17164 | +7 | -305 | +133 | 57.824 | +0.126 | 5 | = | OLIVIA RODRIGO | deja vu | 14599 | +131 | 1381 | -113 | 50.112 | +0.571 | 6 | = | ARIANA GRANDE | pov | 12347 | -330 | -1888 | -96 | 39.120 | -0.755 | 7 | = | JUSTIN BIEBER | Peaches f/Daniel Caesar/Giveon | 12335 | -167 | -820 | -9 | 39.758 | -0.325 | 8 | = | ED SHEERAN | Bad Habits | 10874 | +291 | 1940 | +52 | 35.998 | +0.788 | 9 | +1 | THE WEEKND | Save Your Tears | 10058 | -1 | -322 | +117 | 33.246 | +0.277 | 10 | -1 | SAWEETIE | Best Friend f/Doja Cat | 9869 | -210 | -767 | -197 | 32.597 | -0.593 | 11 | = | BTS | Butter | 9238 | +96 | 387 | +36 | 26.665 | +0.460 | 12 | = | KALI UCHIS | Telepatia | 7827 | +46 | 410 | -40 | 24.447 | +0.232 | 13 | = | REGARD | You f/Troye Sivan & Tate McRae | 7641 | +24 | 329 | -78 | 22.219 | +0.219 | 14 | = | MARSHMELLO F/JONAS BROTHERS | Leave Before You Love Me | 6735 | +80 | 322 | +18 | 20.742 | +0.141 | 15 | = | NELLY & FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE | Lil Bit | 6170 | +89 | 314 | +48 | 14.188 | +0.260 | 16 | = | MASKED WOLF | Astronaut In The Ocean | 5776 | -184 | -1790 | +192 | 17.412 | -0.268 | 17 | +1 | DUNCAN LAURENCE | Arcade | 5665 | +84 | 408 | +31 | 17.856 | +0.182 | 18 | -1 | BRUNO MARS/A .PAAK/SILK SONIC | Leave The Door Open | 5616 | -87 | -701 | +284 | 17.851 | -0.245 | 19 | = | GIVEON | Heartbreak Anniversary | 5539 | +82 | 434 | +4 | 14.654 | +0.207 | 20 | = | DOJA CAT | You Right f/The Weeknd | 5153 | +182 | 1433 | -164 | 16.922 | +0.435 | 21 | = | TATE MCRAE X KHALID | working | 5012 | +119 | 689 | -36 | 15.347 | +0.368 | 22 | = | AJR | Way Less Sad | 4890 | +22 | 177 | +8 | 11.137 | +0.094 | 23 | = | ANITTA | Girl From Rio | 4661 | +14 | 174 | -37 | 11.761 | -0.027 | 24 | = | MAROON 5 F/MEGAN THEE STALLION | Beautiful Mistakes | 3865 | -165 | -1206 | +142 | 12.461 | -0.339 | 25 | = | BELLA POARCH | Build A Bitch | 3135 | +76 | 341 | +121 | 6.557 | +0.085 | 26 | +1 | DUA LIPA | Love Again | 2854 | +296 | 1866 | +93 | 8.910 | +0.878 | 27 | -1 | RITON X NIGHTCRAWLERS | Friday f/Mufasa & Hypeman | 2689 | -87 | -257 | -54 | 5.441 | -0.213 | 28 | = | DJ KHALED | I Did It f/Malone/Megan... | 2496 | +10 | 120 | -16 | 4.430 | -0.018 | 29 | = | POLO G | Rapstar | 2492 | +20 | 183 | -6 | 3.817 | +0.037 | 30 | = | TAI VERDES | A-O-K | 2356 | +118 | 463 | +62 | 5.589 | +0.257 | 31 | = | NESSA BARRETT | la di die f/jxdn | 2163 | +8 | 8 | -53 | 3.761 | +0.033 | 32 | = | CHEAT CODES | Lean On Me f/Tinashe | 2120 | -7 | 140 | -60 | 4.163 | -0.020 | 33 | = | NF | Just Like You | 1738 | +25 | 164 | -6 | 2.456 | +0.079 | 34 | = | COLDPLAY | Higher Power | 1537 | +3 | 65 | +9 | 3.775 | +0.069 | 35 | = | MIMI WEBB | Good Without | 1330 | -32 | -143 | -89 | 2.217 | -0.025 | 36 | = | MOOSKI | Track Star | 1250 | -19 | -44 | -4 | 1.958 | -0.031 | 37 | = | JACKSON WANG | LMLY | 1086 | -131 | -498 | -68 | 1.685 | -0.317 | 38 | = | TXT | Magic | 991 | +12 | 88 | -9 | 1.458 | +0.032 | 39 | +6 | THE KID LAROI & JUSTIN BIEBER | Stay | 970 | +466 | 970 | +466 | 3.872 | +1.731 | 40 | -1 | TONES AND I | Cloudy Day | 783 | +14 | 128 | -18 | 1.158 | -0.010 | 41 | -1 | CARDI B | Up | 674 | -3 | -273 | +42 | 2.693 | -0.081 | 42 | -1 | P!NK | All I Know So Far | 655 | -14 | -71 | -5 | 1.589 | +0.009 | 43 | = | NIC D | Fine Apple | 610 | +26 | 177 | -2 | 0.782 | +0.077 | 44 | = | TESHER X JASON DERULO | Jalebi Baby | 548 | +11 | 119 | -9 | 0.454 | +0.010 | 45 | -3 | MAJID JORDAN | Waves Of Blue | 513 | -73 | -408 | +1 | 0.860 | -0.123 | 46 | -- | POST MALONE | Motley Crew | 501 | -- | 501 | -- | 1.667 | -- | 47 | -1 | ANNE-MARIE & NIALL HORAN | Our Song | 479 | +11 | 79 | -1 | 0.517 | +0.036 | 48 | +1 | MAROON 5 | Lost | 448 | +55 | 235 | +32 | 0.656 | +0.081 | 49 | -- | BILLIE EILISH | NDA | 446 | -- | 446 | -- | 1.777 | -- | 50 | -3 | GIRL IN RED | Serotonin | 400 | -4 | 16 | -3 | 0.405 | +0.009 |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Jul 11, 2021 6:13:36 GMT -5
Up goes recurrent. Waves of Blue should be purged. Bad Bunny and Olivia will likely be pulled back in.
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Az Paynter
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Post by Az Paynter on Jul 11, 2021 7:43:35 GMT -5
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
2 1 LIL NAS X MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 19031 17978 1053 62.609 1 2 DOJA CAT Kiss Me More f/Sza 18368 18216 152 60.082 4 3 OLIVIA RODRIGO good 4 u 17713 16317 1396 60.601 3 4 DUA LIPA Levitating 17164 17469 -305 57.824 6 5 OLIVIA RODRIGO deja vu 14599 13218 1381 50.112 5 6 ARIANA GRANDE pov 12347 14235 -1888 39.120 7 7 JUSTIN BIEBER Peaches f/Daniel Caesar/Giveon 12335 13155 -820 39.758 10 8 ED SHEERAN Bad Habits 10874 8934 1940 35.998 9 9 THE WEEKND Save Your Tears 10058 10380 -322 33.246 8 10 SAWEETIE Best Friend f/Doja Cat 9869 10636 -767 32.597
11 11 BTS Butter 9238 8851 387 26.665 13 12 KALI UCHIS Telepatia 7827 7417 410 24.447 14 13 REGARD You f/Troye Sivan & Tate McRae 7641 7312 329 22.219 15 14 MARSHMELLO F/JONAS BROTHERS Leave Before You Love Me 6735 6413 322 20.742 17 15 NELLY & FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE Lil Bit 6170 5856 314 14.188 12 16 MASKED WOLF Astronaut In The Ocean 5776 7566 -1790 17.412 18 17 DUNCAN LAURENCE Arcade 5665 5257 408 17.856 16 18 BRUNO MARS/A .PAAK/SILK SONIC Leave The Door Open 5616 6317 -701 17.851 19 19 GIVEON Heartbreak Anniversary 5539 5105 434 14.654 24 20 DOJA CAT You Right f/The Weeknd 5153 3720 1433 16.922
23 21 TATE MCRAE X KHALID working 5012 4323 689 15.347 21 22 AJR Way Less Sad 4890 4713 177 11.137 22 23 ANITTA Girl From Rio 4661 4487 174 11.761 20 24 MAROON 5 F/MEGAN THEE STALLION Beautiful Mistakes 3865 5071 -1206 12.461 26 25 BELLA POARCH Build A Bitch 3135 2794 341 6.557 37 26 DUA LIPA Love Again 2854 988 1866 8.910 25 27 RITON X NIGHTCRAWLERS Friday f/Mufasa & Hypeman 2689 2946 -257 5.441 27 28 DJ KHALED I Did It f/Malone/Megan... 2496 2376 120 4.430 28 29 POLO G Rapstar 2492 2309 183 3.817 31 30 TAI VERDES A-O-K 2356 1893 463 5.589
29 31 NESSA BARRETT la di die f/jxdn 2163 2155 8 3.761 30 32 CHEAT CODES Lean On Me f/Tinashe 2120 1980 140 4.163 33 33 NF Just Like You 1738 1574 164 2.456 35 34 COLDPLAY Higher Power 1537 1472 65 3.775 34 35 MIMI WEBB Good Without 1330 1473 -143 2.217 36 36 MOOSKI Track Star 1250 1294 -44 1.958 32 37 JACKSON WANG LMLY 1086 1584 -498 1.685 40 38 TXT Magic 991 903 88 1.458 -- 39 THE KID LAROI & JUSTIN BIEBER Stay 970 0 970 3.872 42 40 TONES AND I Cloudy Day 783 655 128 1.158
38 41 CARDI B Up 674 947 -273 2.693 41 42 P!NK All I Know So Far 655 726 -71 1.589 43 43 NIC D Fine Apple 610 433 177 0.782 44 44 TESHER X JASON DERULO Jalebi Baby 548 429 119 0.454 39 45 MAJID JORDAN Waves Of Blue 513 921 -408 0.860 -- 46 POST MALONE Motley Crew 501 0 501 1.667 45 47 ANNE-MARIE & NIALL HORAN Our Song 479 400 79 0.517 52 48 MAROON 5 Lost 448 213 235 0.656 -- 49 BILLIE EILISH NDA 446 0 446 1.777 47 50 GIRL IN RED Serotonin 400 384 16 0.405
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Cerebro
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Post by Cerebro on Jul 11, 2021 9:25:02 GMT -5
“Up” is going recurrent. “Waves Of Blue” gets purged.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 11, 2021 11:56:24 GMT -5
this is a perfect top five. unfortunately I have a feeling it will be disrupted soon...
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ry4n
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Post by ry4n on Jul 11, 2021 12:34:09 GMT -5
this is a perfect top five. unfortunately I have a feeling it will be disrupted soon...
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Top 40 Tracker
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Post by Top 40 Tracker on Jul 11, 2021 13:01:16 GMT -5
@pat the cat - I was thinking of the one that’s solely based on spin count. It was posted a while ago that Levitating was just inside the top 10, but that was at least a month ago. Thank you for this one! Hopefully she can pass Ari on both charts! My latest tabulation is: 1. positions 2,542 2. Levitating 2,262 3. Mood 2,233 My point system begins in early November. Not sure why Mediabase YTD spin tally is not working right now. By the way, my point system is based on spin tabulations. While not exact, it is a very close approximation because my points are weighted based on weekly spin totals.
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mkarns
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Post by mkarns on Jul 11, 2021 13:37:36 GMT -5
@pat the cat - I was thinking of the one that’s solely based on spin count. It was posted a while ago that Levitating was just inside the top 10, but that was at least a month ago. Thank you for this one! Hopefully she can pass Ari on both charts! My latest tabulation is: 1. positions 2,542 2. Levitating 2,262 3. Mood 2,233 My point system begins in early November. Not sure why Mediabase YTD spin tally is not working right now. By the way, my point system is based on spin tabulations. While not exact, it is a very close approximation because my points are weighted based on weekly spin totals. I wonder if “Mood” would be the clear #1 if it had hit a few months later. As it is it likely has a lot of 2020 spins that don’t count.
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christianlarson9
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Post by christianlarson9 on Jul 11, 2021 13:59:20 GMT -5
@pat the cat - I was thinking of the one that’s solely based on spin count. It was posted a while ago that Levitating was just inside the top 10, but that was at least a month ago. Thank you for this one! Hopefully she can pass Ari on both charts! My latest tabulation is: 1. positions 2,542 2. Levitating 2,262 3. Mood 2,233 My point system begins in early November. Not sure why Mediabase YTD spin tally is not working right now. By the way, my point system is based on spin tabulations. While not exact, it is a very close approximation because my points are weighted based on weekly spin totals. Where do you have "34+35"? The last time I viewed the YTD on AllAccess, it was at #2. I'm assuming it's still Top 5?
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leonagwen
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Post by leonagwen on Jul 11, 2021 17:27:19 GMT -5
this is a perfect top five. unfortunately I have a feeling it will be disrupted soon... Ed Sheeran is coming.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2021 17:50:52 GMT -5
this is a perfect top five. unfortunately I have a feeling it will be disrupted soon... Sooner than you could have even realized.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Jul 11, 2021 17:54:39 GMT -5
What
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Fire
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yes this is my silhouette lol
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Post by Fire on Jul 11, 2021 17:55:42 GMT -5
i would've thought that levitating would've been given the "below #10" rule...huh
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jul 11, 2021 17:56:50 GMT -5
this is a perfect top five. unfortunately I have a feeling it will be disrupted soon... Sooner than you could have even realized. pain! not only does that mean one of the best songs of the past 2 years leaves the chart, but the ever-so-controversial "Butter" enters the Top 10 as well despite getting a negative update today
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Post by Elusive Chanteuse on Jul 11, 2021 18:10:29 GMT -5
Absolutely ridiculous.
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Top 40 Tracker
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Post by Top 40 Tracker on Jul 11, 2021 18:10:49 GMT -5
My latest tabulation is: 1. positions 2,542 2. Levitating 2,262 3. Mood 2,233 My point system begins in early November. Not sure why Mediabase YTD spin tally is not working right now. By the way, my point system is based on spin tabulations. While not exact, it is a very close approximation because my points are weighted based on weekly spin totals. Where do you have "34+35"? The last time I viewed the YTD on AllAccess, it was at #2. I'm assuming it's still Top 5? It's #4. You can view the entire Top 40 chart and their current YTD, Decade and Since 2010 rankings in the MediaBase with recurrents thread.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2021 18:16:31 GMT -5
At least Levitating got the #1, but I'm not really sure what the point of letting a song re-enter the chart if you're just going to yank it as soon as it has a couple of negative bullets/reaches its original peak position again instead of letting it have another 'natural' run out of the top 10. Le sigh. Sooner than you could have even realized. pain! not only does that mean one of the best songs of the past 2 years leaves the chart, but the ever-so-controversial "Butter" enters the Top 10 as well despite getting a negative update today Butter got a positive update today, the negative update was yesterday. Butter was going to enter next week anyway due to the rate Best Friend is falling, but yeah, that definitely annoyed me too lol. Kali's team need to make a quick push for a week inside top 10 while they can. With Best Friend starting to take big falls now it's within reach, but Regard and Marshmello/JoBros are also close behind and could get there before Telepatia does.
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Leo ✔
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Post by Leo ✔ on Jul 11, 2021 18:29:21 GMT -5
LMAO Mediabase wtf that's stupid.
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rihannabiggestfan
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Post by rihannabiggestfan on Jul 11, 2021 19:31:21 GMT -5
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nick64
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Post by nick64 on Jul 11, 2021 19:34:28 GMT -5
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Clode
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Post by Clode on Jul 11, 2021 19:50:11 GMT -5
I absolutely did not expect "Levitating" to get sent back to Recurrent status so soon, Just because the song was losing spins consecutively shouldn't mean that it now had to get sent back into the Recurrent Chart just because of those bad weekly updates, Especially when it was literally still placing in the Top half of the Top 10. Billboard is being more consistently accurate in this sense as "Levitating" was able to come back from Recurrent status earlier, And it is probably going to remain there until it falls back out of the Top 15. So yeah Mediabase really did knock this song back out of the Main chart way too early.
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Juan Carlos
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Post by Juan Carlos on Jul 11, 2021 19:57:25 GMT -5
That was so anticlimatic (re: "Levitating" goes back to recurrency, making "Butter" to claim an official Top 10 this week).
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Leo ✔
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Post by Leo ✔ on Jul 11, 2021 20:06:49 GMT -5
SUNDAY PUBLISHED UPDATE:
2 1 LIL NAS X MONTERO (Call Me By Your Name) 19039 17978 1061 62.624 1 2 DOJA CAT Kiss Me More f/Sza 18376 18216 160 60.108 4 3 OLIVIA RODRIGO good 4 u 17739 16317 1422 60.646 6 4 OLIVIA RODRIGO deja vu 14623 13218 1405 50.149 5 5 ARIANA GRANDE pov 12350 14235 -1885 39.126 7 6 JUSTIN BIEBER Peaches f/Daniel Caesar/Giveon 12321 13155 -834 39.741 10 7 ED SHEERAN Bad Habits 10894 8934 1960 36.032 9 8 THE WEEKND Save Your Tears 10070 10380 -310 33.271 8 9 SAWEETIE Best Friend f/Doja Cat 9877 10636 -759 32.615 11 10 BTS Butter 9240 8851 389 26.669
13 11 KALI UCHIS Telepatia 7829 7417 412 24.452 14 12 REGARD You f/Troye Sivan & Tate McRae 7640 7312 328 22.214 15 13 MARSHMELLO F/JONAS BROTHERS Leave Before You Love Me 6744 6413 331 20.756 17 14 NELLY & FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE Lil Bit 6172 5856 316 14.194 12 15 MASKED WOLF Astronaut In The Ocean 5775 7566 -1791 17.411 18 16 DUNCAN LAURENCE Arcade 5664 5257 407 17.855 16 17 BRUNO MARS/A .PAAK/SILK SONIC Leave The Door Open 5602 6317 -715 17.834 19 18 GIVEON Heartbreak Anniversary 5546 5105 441 14.668 24 19 DOJA CAT You Right f/The Weeknd 5157 3720 1437 16.927 23 20 TATE MCRAE X KHALID working 5018 4323 695 15.365
21 21 AJR Way Less Sad 4890 4713 177 11.135 22 22 ANITTA Girl From Rio 4667 4487 180 11.771 20 23 MAROON 5 F/MEGAN THEE STALLION Beautiful Mistakes 3855 5071 -1216 12.447 26 24 BELLA POARCH Build A Bitch 3133 2794 339 6.551 37 25 DUA LIPA Love Again 2855 988 1867 8.907 25 26 RITON X NIGHTCRAWLERS Friday f/Mufasa & Hypeman 2688 2946 -258 5.440 27 27 DJ KHALED I Did It f/Malone/Megan... 2496 2376 120 4.430 28 28 POLO G Rapstar 2493 2309 184 3.819 31 29 TAI VERDES A-O-K 2358 1893 465 5.591 29 30 NESSA BARRETT la di die f/jxdn 2163 2155 8 3.761
30 31 CHEAT CODES Lean On Me f/Tinashe 2118 1980 138 4.160 33 32 NF Just Like You 1737 1574 163 2.458 35 33 COLDPLAY Higher Power 1536 1472 64 3.775 34 34 MIMI WEBB Good Without 1331 1473 -142 2.216 36 35 MOOSKI Track Star 1250 1294 -44 1.958 32 36 JACKSON WANG LMLY 1084 1584 -500 1.677 40 37 TXT Magic 992 903 89 1.459 -- 38 THE KID LAROI & JUSTIN BIEBER Stay 968 0 968 3.865 42 39 TONES AND I Cloudy Day 783 655 128 1.158 41 40 P!NK All I Know So Far 654 726 -72 1.588
43 41 NIC D Fine Apple 610 433 177 0.782 44 42 TESHER X JASON DERULO Jalebi Baby 548 429 119 0.454 -- 43 POST MALONE Motley Crew 502 0 502 1.669 45 44 ANNE-MARIE & NIALL HORAN Our Song 479 400 79 0.518 52 45 MAROON 5 Lost 448 213 235 0.656 -- 46 BILLIE EILISH NDA 446 0 446 1.777 47 47 GIRL IN RED Serotonin 400 384 16 0.405 51 48 TRINIDAD CARDONA Dinero 394 235 159 0.788 46 49 BAD BUNNY Yonaguni 386 387 -1 1.276 48 50 OLIVIA RODRIGO traitor 361 357 4 0.830
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gikem
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Post by gikem on Jul 11, 2021 20:38:23 GMT -5
Was this a case where Levitating had 3 straight weeks of a negative bullet? I know that's how Mediabase does it with all songs on country radio (not sure about other formats).
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erzo01
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Post by erzo01 on Jul 11, 2021 20:41:06 GMT -5
One silver lining though is that "All I Know So Far" managed to officially enter Top 40, albeit losing spins. I was kinda wary if it's gonna make it this week (or at all) because of 3 high-profile releases.
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musiciscool
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Post by musiciscool on Jul 11, 2021 20:44:31 GMT -5
Geez, Mediabase couldn't wait to get rid of Levitating, huh? Stupid decision. Easily could have waited until it fell out of the Top 10.
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