HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 8, 2012 15:46:27 GMT -5
VAN HALEN VS. ADELE DUEL FOR #1 Reformed Rockers Eye 200k for New Studio Album, with Adele in Hot Pursuit
February 8, 2012
It’s the Truth.
Van Halen’s new Interscope album, A Different Kind of Truth, their first with lead singer David Lee Roth since 1984 that same year, will debut with between 180-200k on next week’s chart, based on one-day sales from those music retailers who haven’t closed down to run a Chick-a- Fil franchise.
The band’s last album, 1998’s Van Halen III, with lead vocalist Gary Cherone, sold 191k on its way to a total of 516k
The album is so far the front-runner for #1, but don’t count out XL/Columbia’s Adele, whose 6.4-million-selling 21 should make a late surge based on Sunday night’s Grammy telecast and Tuesday’s Valentine’s Day to put her within striking distance of the #1 spot for the 20th time in a remarkable 51-week run.
Capitol/EMI’s long-running Now series now with its 41st edition, will be the next highest debut, with a total between 130-140k.
Epic pop-rockers The Fray’s third album, Scars and Stories, is on target for between 90-100k. Their last album, Feb. 2009’s self-titled effort, sold almost twice that in its opening week,180k, eventually moving some 897k in all.
Hear Music/Concord legend Paul McCartney’s Kisses on the Bottom, his tribute to the Great American Songbook, is on tap for between 65-70k.
Capitol Nashville/EMI country star Dierks Bentley’s Home, his first since 2010’s Up on the Ridge, is on target for 55-60k after the latter debuted with 39k.
Album sales were up 8% vs. last week, up 6% vs. same week last year and up 3% year to date.
Track sales were up 2% vs. last week, up 7% vs. same week last year and up 6.5% year to date.
TEA sales were up 6% vs. last week, up 6% vs. same week last year and up 4.25% year to date.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2012 15:49:29 GMT -5
The band’s last album, 1998’s Van Halen III, with lead vocalist Gary Cherone, sold 191k on its way to a total of 516k
Surprised this did that well
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Feb 8, 2012 15:55:05 GMT -5
180-200k for Van Halen? Wow.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Feb 8, 2012 15:59:16 GMT -5
I was hoping The Fray could make a run for #1 (even though I've lost most of my interest in them an haven't checked the album out myself). I guess based on the 50%-ish drop off since their last opening week, many other fans of theirs feel the same.
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thehellion
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Post by thehellion on Feb 8, 2012 16:05:35 GMT -5
180-200k for Van Halen? Wow. Not really surprising. People have been waiting for a new VH album with Diamond Dave for a long time now. There was always going to be quite a bit of interest in it. If VH actually debut at No.1, it will be the 6th of their career and the first with DLR at the helm. Adele may have other ideas however.
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Post by when the pawn... on Feb 8, 2012 16:09:48 GMT -5
Can Adele really get up to 200k? I'd assume huge numbers next week but is the few hours after her Grammy performance enough time to pack in big sales?
Although I guess I should stop doubting her at this point...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2012 16:36:44 GMT -5
180-200k for Van Halen? Wow. Not really surprising. People have been waiting for a new VH album with Diamond Dave for a long time now. There was always going to be quite a bit of interest in it. If VH actually debut at No.1, it will be the 6th of their career and the first with DLR at the helm. Adele may have other ideas however. Yes it was #1 on the itunes chart for a bit during the pre-order phase a few weeks back
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Feb 8, 2012 16:55:41 GMT -5
I think Adele will see an upswing, but I doubt to 200K. However, the full grammy/VD week may see some huge numbers for her-over 200K which will be completely amazing for her.
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wolfmother
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Post by wolfmother on Feb 8, 2012 16:59:17 GMT -5
Can Adele really get up to 200k? I'd assume huge numbers next week but is the few hours after her Grammy performance enough time to pack in big sales? Although I guess I should stop doubting her at this point... Like the explained, the other factor to take into account, is the arrival of the Valentine's day, which, as they suggest, should push 21's towards a greater total than last, so if you combine this with the expected surge from the Grammy awards, she could be on her way to a 180K week. Quite frankly I want her to still be on top so that Mc Hammer soon won't have the album with the longest stay at the top in the soundscan era. And at during the christmas period, some were still doubting Adele could be certified as a Diamond album, that sales would level off with January, as other pointed, she had another hit coming, plus all the awards, and as we've seen, that album is in a league of it's own, it defies all standars, it's in the same league as Jagged Little Pill, for exemple. It won't stop selling just now. Very impressive.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2012 17:35:08 GMT -5
Van Halen Vs. Adele For No. 1 Next Week on Billboard 200by Keith Caulfield, L.A. | February 08, 2012 5:30 EST Van Halen might be on its way to a sixth career No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart -- unless Adele's "21" stands in the veteran band's way. Industry sources suggest that Van Halen's "A Different Kind of Truth" may sell about 180,000 to 200,000 copies by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Feb. 12. Under normal circumstances, that would be enough for the recently-signed Interscope act to bump Queen Adele from the top slot. Surprised Kool & the Gang Is Van Halen Opener? So Are They However, this isn't a normal week. The 54th Grammy Awards take place on Feb. 12, at 8-11:30 PM on CBS -- where Adele is scheduled to perform. The artist is nominated for six Grammys this year, and the performance will mark her first since undergoing surgery last year on her vocal chords. Further, Adele will sit down with Anderson Cooper for an interview on CBS' "60 Minutes" immediately before the Grammys. It's certainly possible that whatever buzz is generated by Adele on Grammy night -- the final day of the tracking week for next week's Billboard 200 -- could engineer a big gain in sales for "21." This past week, the set shifted 122,000 (up 5% according to Nielsen SoundScan) in its 19th nonconsecutive week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. If Van Halen does reach No. 1, it will be the band's first chart-topping studio set with reunited frontman David Lee Roth. The latter departed the group in 1985, a year after its "1984" album was released. "1984" spent five weeks at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 -- the band's highest charting set with Roth. (He would later return to the fold, temporarily, to record two new songs for 1996's "Best Of Volume 1" hits album. That set debuted at No. 1 with 233,000 sold in its first week.) Van Halen's other four other No. 1s were their four studio albums with Roth's replacement, Sammy Hagar: "5150" (1986), "OU812" (1988), "For Unlawful Carnal Knowledge" (1991) and "Balance" (1995). Other albums on course for big debuts next week include the "Now 41" compilation, the Fray's "Scars and Stories," Paul McCartney's "Kisses on the Bottom" and Dierks Bentley's "Home." The "Now 41" set may move around 110,000 while the Fray could sell around 100,000 copies. McCartney is aiming for a start near 70,000 and Bentley is bound for perhaps 60,000. The new Billboard 200 chart's top 10 will be revealed on the morning of Wednesday, Feb. 15. Link: www.billboard.com/news#/news/van-halen-vs-adele-for-no-1-next-week-on-1006135552.story
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Post by thewolvesareaway on Feb 8, 2012 19:03:17 GMT -5
i think most of Adele's valentine's day bump will occur this week since Valentines Day is on Tuesday. I think most people will be getting gifts this week and this weekend.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on Feb 8, 2012 19:10:12 GMT -5
Quite frankly I want her to still be on top so that Mc Hammer soon won't have the album with the longest stay at the top in the soundscan era. MC Hammer's 21 week run ended in 1990, a few months before Soundscan started tracking sales. The Bodyguard soundtrack has the Soundscan record at 20 weeks. I'm pretty sure Adele can pass both of them though.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Feb 9, 2012 3:03:59 GMT -5
Adele would need 63% boost to reach 200k. That's very hard to achieve this week. Next week she'll do it, obviously.
I'm surprised McCartney and NOW can't dethrone Adele. Maybe "Kisses on the Bottom" should've had a post-Grammy release instead.
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Feb 9, 2012 17:50:40 GMT -5
Watch 21 zoom up on iTunes in no time. Digital sellers are gonna be the thing to watch out for on Sunday. Physical sales she will get it for sure the next week.
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Arabella21
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Post by Arabella21 on Feb 9, 2012 19:44:28 GMT -5
With the Grammy Awards on Sunday night and the last weekend before Valentine's Day upon us, there is a lot more conjecture than usual in this week's midweek projections. The show’s performers typically see substantial increases after appearing, as evidenced by the remarkable spike seen last year by Mumford & Sons. Can Adele, who is performing and favored to win Album, Record and Song of the Year, see a big enough lift to keep Van Halen from scoring next week's #1 record? Here's how it looks headed into Grammy weekend:
*Van Halen (Interscope) 180-195k Adele 21 (XL/Columbia) 175-190k *Now 41 (Capitol/EMI) 130-140k *The Fray (Epic) 85-95k *Paul McCartney (Hear Music/Concord) 65-70k *Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 55-60k 2012 Grammy Nominees (Universal Republic) 55-60k LMFAO (Interscope) 30-35k Drake (YM/CM/Universal Republic) 30-35k Lana Del Rey (Interscope) 28-32k Kidz Bop Kids (Razor & Tie) 27-30k Rihanna (Def Jam/IDJ) 25-28k Adele 19 (XL/Columbia) 24-27k Tim McGraw (Curb) 24-27k Mary J. Blige (Geffen) 24-27k
*Debuts (2/9p)
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Rodze
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Post by Rodze on Feb 9, 2012 19:59:17 GMT -5
Adele's not moving out of the top easily.
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Feb 9, 2012 20:12:25 GMT -5
Dayum, Adelesus! Keep on workin' that chart swag!
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Feb 9, 2012 20:16:11 GMT -5
That is actually higher than my predicted 150-175K-damn Adele. Continues to impress me :) Even more impressive is next week she could easily do over 200K somewhere due to the awards and the continued VD Effect. Then the next week should be decent as well putting her close to 7 million, yes?
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DJ General
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Post by DJ General on Feb 9, 2012 20:26:18 GMT -5
I'm guessing by the end of May she will pass into 8,000,000
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Honeymoon
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Post by Honeymoon on Feb 9, 2012 20:28:11 GMT -5
9 million for Adele by the end of 2012?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2012 22:00:19 GMT -5
Damn Adele!
And Lana's numbers look good for a 2nd week too but she really needs a hit to resonate though. Is she done promoting in the US also?
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MRT
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Post by MRT on Feb 10, 2012 1:05:59 GMT -5
Mary J. Blige (Geffen) 24-27k
:o
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2012 2:37:54 GMT -5
What a great week!
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Feb 10, 2012 3:14:38 GMT -5
Adele 19 (XL/Columbia) 24-27k New peak next week? (Post-Grammy)
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Feb 10, 2012 9:17:05 GMT -5
Exciting race for the top spot this week. Adele's going to add to her record-breaking run, regardless of when, so would be nice for Van Halen to top the chart for a week.
Hoping Celebration can muster a little more than it had this past week (16K); HITS did underestimate it big though (11,800 vs. 16,200 SoundScan). Digital was the lion's share of sales for this week, so maybe physical sales can see a nice boost.
The album saw such a huge boost that any percentage gain will be minimal by comparison.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2012 9:22:26 GMT -5
i think most of Adele's valentine's day bump will occur this week since Valentines Day is on Tuesday. I think most people will be getting gifts this week and this weekend. Who would buy their girlfriend an album filled with songs about breaking up?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2012 11:35:10 GMT -5
i think most of Adele's valentine's day bump will occur this week since Valentines Day is on Tuesday. I think most people will be getting gifts this week and this weekend. Who would buy their girlfriend an album filled with songs about breaking up? the single folks will dig it...
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Feb 10, 2012 11:45:36 GMT -5
The sales for this week looks very promising.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Feb 10, 2012 12:12:13 GMT -5
Changes to the New Release Schedule:
March 13:
One Direction first week added: 175k
March 26:
Madonna moved to a Monday
April 10:
Monica moved to this date.
May 1:
Carrie Underwood first week added: 300k
Brandy added to June TBD.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Feb 10, 2012 12:26:57 GMT -5
One Direction first week added: 175k
???
They have a platinum seller in the UK and decent following all over the world but this is ridiculous
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