Billboard Hot 100: 03/03/12

[cesarams]

Feb 17, 2012 13:27:50 GMT -5 kingofpain said:

Figures that Selena Gomez is dropping in AirPlay when her iTunes sales are now at their highest (top 20). What is WRONG with the public???
Don't you mean pop radio?

Well both... pop radio took forever to spin this. When it was at its peak (which it maintained roughly for nearly two weeks), the digital sales hung around in the lower 30's. Now pop radio is dropping it... and for some bizarre reason, the digital sales have spiked to 17 on itunes for the past week.

I mean seriously... if it's not one thing, it's the other! First it was pop radio's fault for taking forever to add this... and then it did its job, but now the public waited too late to buy it now that radio's done with it.

Maybe sales grew up because the Valentine's Day. LYLALS it's a good song for it. But the radio already tired of it. It was released 8 months ago as a single.

[Au$tin]

It's $0.69 on iTunes now, which explains the sales increase. Her airplay hasn't fallen that much, so she could still get into the top 20.

[allow that]

Are we really sitting her discussing that Selena Gomez doesn't get enough radio airplay?

How about the songs that have less exposure than her but have been selling better all along. Those are the songs that deserve more airplay if anything.

[kingofpain]

It's $0.69 on iTunes now, which explains the sales increase. Her airplay hasn't fallen that much, so she could still get into the top 20.

I think it's going to drop at a rate of about a million per day... so by next Tuesday's deadline, I think what she's made up in sales, she'll have lost in airplay points - so basically she'll have made no progress whatsoever on the Hot 100.

I'm not complaining about radio not playing her, like I said, they did their job, even if it wasn't to the same degree as a Katy Perry or Rihanna hit... I was just pointing out how odd that her sales inflated at the exact time her airplay is decreasing.

[cesarams]

I never thought we could talk about Selena at this thread. But I think the fans started to buy it after she said she'd gonna take a break as a singer this year to be dedicated at her actress career.

[HolidayGuy]

Whitney Houston on Mediabase Golds Charts
7-day-rolling airplay, 2/10-2/16

Rank (Rank yesterday)- Title: Number of spins (Trend compared to the prior day's reported number)- Number of stations

Pop Golds
10 (10)- I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me): 356 spins (+6)- 103 stations
19 (18)- I Will Always Love You: 262 (-)- 99 stations

Rhythmic Golds
6 (6)- I Will Always Love You: 183 (+4)- 53 stations
8 (9)- I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me): 167 (+3)- 56 stations
23 (23)- How Will I Know: 117 (+3)- 42 stations
32 (35)- Heartbreak Hotel: 98 (+3)- 37 stations
39- I'm Every Woman: 88- 39 stations

AC Golds
2 (8)- I Will Always Love You: 566 (+27)- 88 stations

Urban Golds
2 (2)- I Will Always Love You: 250 (+3)- 59 stations
3 (3)- I'm Every Woman: 205 (+4)- 62 stations
4 (6)- You Give Good Love: 205 (+19)- 58 stations
5 (4)- I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me): 201 (+3)- 60 stations
6 (5)- Heartbreak Hotel: 199 (+2)- 57 stations
7 (7)- Exhale (Shoop Shoop): 185 (+2)- 55 stations
8 (10)- Saving All My Love For You: 172 (+15)- 60 stations
9 (9)- The Greatest Love Of All: 168 (+9)- 61 stations
10 (8)- How Will I Know: 167 (+3)- 62 stations

11 (11)- I'm Your Baby Tonight: 142 (+2): 55 stations
12 (12)- My Love Is Your Love: 142 (+8)- 51 stations
15 (17)- I Have Nothing: 104 (+3)- 40 stations
22 (32)- All The Man That I Need: 90 (+9)- 38 stations
23 (25)- Million Dollar Bill: 90 (+1)- 44 stations
29 (29)- I Love The Lord: 84 (-)- 38 stations
37 (38)- I Go To The Rock: 74 (-)- 33 stations
39- It's Not Right But it's Okay :73- 41 stations
40 (40)- The Star Spangled Banner: 72 (-)- 41 stations

Urban AC Golds
1 (1)- I Will Always Love You: 725 (+26)- 72 stations
2 (2)- Saving All My Love For You: 626 (+40)- 72 stations
3 (3)- You Give Good Love: 609 (+27)- 71 stations
4 (4)- The Greatest Love Of All: 564 (+44)- 72 stations
5 (5)- Exhale (Shoop Shoop): 423 (+10)- 71 stations
6 (6)- I'm Every Woman: 348 (+8)- 68 stations
7 (7)- I'm Your Baby Tonight: 335 (+9)- 68 stations
8 (8)- I Have Nothing: 307 (+22)- 66 stations
9 (10)- I Believe In You & Me: 287 (+10)- 66 stations

11 (11)- All The Man That I Need: 284 (+5)- 67 stations
12 (11)- Heartbreak Hotel: 283 (+7)- 61 stations

15 (17)- How Will I Know: 228 (+6)- 64 stations
17 (24)- Where Do Broken Hearts Go: 214 (+18)- 58 stations
18 (18)- Didn't We Almost Have It All: 213 (+4)- 60 stations
19 (20)- I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me): 210 (+6)- 57 stations

28 (32)- The Star Spangled Banner: 185 (-)- 64 stations
30- My Love is Your Love: 184- 56 stations

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2012 13:41:56 GMT -5 allow that said:

Are we really sitting her discussing that Selena Gomez doesn't get enough radio airplay?

How about the songs that have less exposure than her but have been selling better all along. Those are the songs that deserve more airplay if anything.

Good point. Songs like "We Are Young" which sold almost 300k last week, but that radio is hardly playing, while they seem to jump immediately on anything a Katy Perry or a Rihanna put out.

Radio really misses the boat at times.

[slamina]

Feb 17, 2012 14:13:49 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

Feb 17, 2012 13:41:56 GMT -5 allow that said:

Are we really sitting her discussing that Selena Gomez doesn't get enough radio airplay?

How about the songs that have less exposure than her but have been selling better all along. Those are the songs that deserve more airplay if anything.

Good point. Songs like "We Are Young" which sold almost 300k last week, but that radio is hardly playing, while they seem to jump immediately on anything a Katy Perry or a Rihanna put out.

Radio really misses the boat at times.

Katy and Rihanna have very high digital sales as well which means the public demand is there. Katy's single is about to debut with over 400k sold in its first week. If their sales sucked then maybe you'd be making a valid point, but that is not the case fortunately. :)

[Au$tin]

WAY is taking off on radio, though. KIIS & Z100 both added it this week.

[HolidayGuy]

^I think they mean airplay in relation to sales- clearly, some stations now are jumping on the WAY bandwagon. Did WAY even go for official airplay at any formats previously? The Glee boost wasn't enough for radio to take notice; maybe this latest boost did the trick.

[allow that]

Feb 17, 2012 16:23:14 GMT -5 slamina said:

Feb 17, 2012 14:13:49 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

Good point. Songs like "We Are Young" which sold almost 300k last week, but that radio is hardly playing, while they seem to jump immediately on anything a Katy Perry or a Rihanna put out.

Radio really misses the boat at times.

Katy and Rihanna have very high digital sales as well which means the public demand is there. Katy's single is about to debut with over 400k sold in its first week. If their sales sucked then maybe you'd be making a valid point, but that is not the case fortunately. :)

Of course the public is buying their singles. The public is being exposed to them in large doses. If you compare the conversion rate of listeners to buyers, Gotye and fun.'s sales are more impressive in my opinion. A larger percentage of people that are hearing them are buying them.

Either way, Selena Gomez is getting exposure closer to Katy/Rihanna than Gotye/fun. and sales lower than any of them, so I think considering that she's already gotten more airplay than deserved.

[Mahatma Coat]

Feb 17, 2012 13:33:20 GMT -5 @jback said:

Holiday Guy is a stan...of course he's going to make excuses of why GMAYL is not taking off as well as alot of people predicted(after the SP promo and having Nicki & MIA on it)but we all do it. I do it with Beyonce, Kelly stans do it, Lady GaGa stans do it, ect...it's what makes as stans so give him a break

<3

TRUE. I'm a Madonna stan too but I have no problem falling to the floor in shock and horror over this reductive and cringe-worthy single that got a decent video and a performance before 116 milion people. Now I'm to believe it was only meant to be a Superbowl track and expectations were probably as low as the song is performing because she's 53? LOL This was always the plan? No shame in miscalculating what your audience will love from you. It happens. Onto single #2 which I hope arrives before the album drops.

[WotUNeed]

Feb 17, 2012 10:00:18 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

Aside from the general quality and people not loving it, the Madonna-centricness of the track would be the thing is has against it, as well.

I've seen that referenced a few times, but honestly, if I hadn't seen Madonna's fans around here interpreting it that way, I wouldn't have ever realized this was some sort of "Madonna calls out other pop stars" track. I would imagine most casual listeners would interpret it, as I did, with a more common theme; that is, "if you want to be with me, you better do something special, because I don't go for just anyone." There's really nothing in the lyrics that go against that interpretation of the lyrics, so I don't think it's being hurt by lack of a universal theme.

[Deleted]

Download Derby: Katy Perry Leads Pack of Digital Debuts
February 17, 2012

By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles
Next week's Billboard Digital Songs and Hot 100 charts will be brimming with massive debuts, surging sales and some intriguing newcomers. A host of songs -- new and old -- will be vying for a position within both charts' top 10s.

Katy Perry's new "Part of Me," which was released digitally to retailers on Monday, Feb. 13, is heading for a debut sales week of around 400,000 to 420,000 downloads by week's end on Sunday, Feb. 19 -- so say industry prognosticators. That would mark the pop diva's best debut sales frame and the highest opening week for any act since Lady Gaga's "Born This Way" sold 448,000 on the chart dated Feb. 26, 2011, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Perry premiered "Part of Me" in a performance on the Feb. 12 Grammy Awards ceremony -- much like how Gaga launched "Born This Way" a year ago on the Feb. 13 Grammys (two days after the single hit digital retailers). So effectively, Perry's "Part of Me" will sell around the same amount in seven days as Gaga did in three.

Adele, who was the queen of this year's Grammy Awards -- taking home six trophies -- should also find herself with multiple singles near the top of the Digital Songs tally.

"Rolling in the Deep," which she performed on the show and earned both record and song of the year awards, could sell over 250,000 downloads. Meanwhile, her most recent single, "Set Fire to the Rain," may move around 220,000 while "Someone Like You" could sell 170,000.

The late Whitney Houston will likely be among next week's top 10 selling songs for a second week, as "I Will Always Love You" could sell in the range of 250,000 to 300,000.

fun.'s "We Are Young" (featuring Janelle Monae) is still reeling from its positioning in Chevy's Sonic TV commercial, and is aiming for a 250,000 sales week.

Nicki Minaj's new "Starships" is on course to sell perhaps 150,000, while Chris Brown's also just-released "Turn Up the Music" is heading for a start near 150,000 to 170,000 as well. Another new single, from British vocal group One Direction, "What Makes You Beautiful," may debut with 120,000 or so.

The top 10 of the Digital Songs chart will be revealed on Wednesday, Feb. 22.

[Au$tin]

Such huge numbers all around! Very exciting!

[allow that]

How are they projecting more for Chris than Nicki? Nicki has been outselling him on iTunes all week.

[Verisimilitude]

Besides, where did One Direction come from? Online stanbase ala Bieber?

[neverduplicated]

So Katy basically has number 1 in the bag this week if those projections are anywhere near being right. Even if sales seriously trail downwards over the next two days and the track sells ~370,000, it would still be plenty to make up for the airplay gap with SFTTR. 6th number 1 in less than 2 years! She makes getting those number 1's look so effortless!

[moore746]

What are the chances of all three of Adele's singles landing in the top ten??

[Rodze]

Depends on how much airplay SLY still has. Edit: I just saw it's on the latest update. Chances are good, if it keeps that 50m, I think.

These are a lock for top 10 I think:

Part of Me
Set Fire to the Rain
Stronger
Rolling in the Deep
We Are Young
I Will Always Love You


Then:

We Found Love
Someone Like You
Turn Me On
Good Feeling
Sexy and I Know It
...and more I'm forgetting, surely

[Au$tin]

Feb 17, 2012 19:05:56 GMT -5 allow that said:

How are they projecting more for Chris than Nicki? Nicki has been outselling him on iTunes all week.

Chris had Monday too which included the high sales from his Grammy performance. They should end up selling around the same with Chris getting a few 5-15k more.

[Deleted]

Wow at Katy! :o I would have never expected such a huge debut. Is there something special going on or something? I know Britney posted similar numbers and Gaga did but that was with a lot of hype...it doesn't seem like this was half as hyped but I guess the huge Grammy ratings and her performance actually being really good worked alot.

And yuss for One Direction. They are coming.

[josh]

With Gaga, she only did it in 3 days, so if she had a full week she could have done quite a bit more. Not sure about Britney's case. Plus Gaga's 3 days were before the Grammys, so a full week debut after the Grammys like Katy could have increased sales even further.

[bornfearless2000]

no, that projection must be wrong. Katy will sell more than 450k.

[Deleted]

Yes!!! Katy keeps slaying! :) Loving the huge numbers all around. I hope the digital chart get's leaked next week!

[Deleted]

BEYONCE - Love On Top: 35.448 (+ 0.946)



12. WIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 65.551 (+ 1.136) ▲

So glad for this. Can't wait til it goes Top 10 Airplay.

And just like I expected, it looks like "Take Care" is taking care of TTT and leaving it dusty. I guess they're not going to bother shooting a video for it and will move right along with "Birthday Cake" which already is seeming like a HUGE gamble.

[leoapp]

To be honest, I expect Katy's lead single from her brand new album later will break the record for first week digital sales.

[josh]

Feb 17, 2012 22:02:25 GMT -5 leoapp said:

To be honest, I expect Katy's lead single from her brand new album later will break the record for first week digital sales.

What would make that any different than Part of Me? Brand new single, not available before. Plus it was premiered in front of 40 million people. She's not likely going to get that much of a premiere audience again, unless they time things perfectly.

[icefire9]

Feb 17, 2012 22:07:38 GMT -5 josh said:

Feb 17, 2012 22:02:25 GMT -5 leoapp said:

To be honest, I expect Katy's lead single from her brand new album later will break the record for first week digital sales.

What would make that any different than Part of Me? Brand new single, not available before. Plus it was premiered in front of 40 million people. She's not likely going to get that much of a premiere audience again, unless they time things perfectly.

I imagine that there'd be more hype for an entire new album.

[Au$tin]

Feb 17, 2012 21:19:14 GMT -5 bornfearless2000 said:

no, that projection must be wrong. Katy will sell more than 450k.

How do you know?

Feb 17, 2012 22:07:38 GMT -5 josh said:

Feb 17, 2012 22:02:25 GMT -5 leoapp said:

To be honest, I expect Katy's lead single from her brand new album later will break the record for first week digital sales.

What would make that any different than Part of Me? Brand new single, not available before. Plus it was premiered in front of 40 million people. She's not likely going to get that much of a premiere audience again, unless they time things perfectly.

This song isn't exactly brand new, though. Plus, it kind of came out of nowhere. We literally knew next to nothing about its release 2 weeks before it hit iTunes. This is more like when the Speak Now bonus tracks hit iTunes. The only difference is we've never had a HQ version of "Part of Me" before and it was also performed on the Grammys.

I expect her lead single to at least crack 550k.