Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Mar 27, 2012 16:45:22 GMT -5
There's only one reason to start this thread very early.
Justin Bieber's 'Boyfriend' Bound For Big Hot 100 Debut Next Week
March 27, 2012
By Keith Caulfield, Los Angeles and Gary Trust, New York
Justin Bieber's new single "Boyfriend" is off to a blazing sales and radio start, likely setting up a big debut on next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart.
Released to digital retailers on Monday (March 26), the track, industry sources suggest, may sell around 400,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday (April 1).
That would easily notch Bieber's best sales week for a song, surpassing the 199,000 downloads moved at the height of popularity for his single "Never Say Never" last year. On the Digital Songs chart dated March 5, 2011, "Never" peaked at No. 5 with that sum.
Depending on how the week pans out for Bieber, "Boyfriend" could earn the best sales week of the year for a single, surpassing Katy Perry's arrival with "Part of Me" (411,000) a month ago.
On next week's Hot 100 -- which blends radio airplay, sales and streaming data -- "Boyfriend" could see a top five debut. Among his 21 Hot 100 charted titles to date, "Baby" represents his highest start, having blasted in (and peaked) at No. 5 in February 2010.
Early radio airplay for "Boyfriend" looks just as promising as its sales. On the building Pop Songs tally, which measures mainstream top 40 radio airplay, the song is already in the top 20 with more than 800 first-week plays, according to Nielsen BDS.
Justin Bieber Lets Fans Pick New Single's Cover Art on Twitter
Bieber appears in line for his first consensus hit at the top 40 radio format. Despite his track record of sales success (8 million albums sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan) and high social media profile (19 million Twitter followers), top 40 radio has been largely cautious of the teen star. Bieber has yet to reach the Pop Songs top 10, having charted as high as No. 14 with debut hit "One Time" in 2009. "Baby" reached No. 16 on Pop Songs.
After just two days-plus at radio, however, it appears that "Boyfriend" could be the song that fills in what has been one of the few voids -- a radio smash -- in Bieber's meteoric career rise thus far.
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Mar 27, 2012 17:26:12 GMT -5
Im thinking 600-700k.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2012 18:17:33 GMT -5
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brucelover
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Post by brucelover on Mar 27, 2012 18:35:36 GMT -5
I have a question for our chart experts: what are Beyonce's airplay peaks (in terms of audience impressions)?
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forg
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Post by forg on Mar 27, 2012 18:57:03 GMT -5
Yeah this is an important single for Bieber as it will determine if he has potential to crossover from the tween/teen market. Not a fan of the kid but I gotta admit he has talent
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stanr
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Post by stanr on Mar 27, 2012 21:32:35 GMT -5
i think around 400-500k and definitely debut at #1 on Hot 100
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Mar 28, 2012 9:28:11 GMT -5
fun will easily ward him off from #1.
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Mar 28, 2012 9:31:34 GMT -5
fun will easily ward him off from #1. I don't think they will, though... It's gonna be a tough week. EDIT: fun. sold an incredible 387,000 this week. Assuming they fall no more than 10% next week (~350k), and keep up their incredible radio gains, they may have a chance at maintaining that #1. Now die, Boyfriend, die... |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Mar 28, 2012 14:40:36 GMT -5
Wow! 387k this week? That only further me to suspect a much large than 440k debut for "Boyfriend." We are three days into the selling week and it's still selling "We Are Young" at over a 1:2 ratio!
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Mar 28, 2012 15:07:01 GMT -5
BELIEBE IT OR NOT: Justin Bieber’s "Boyfriend" has sold nearly 300k this week and has already surpassed his best-ever first week of 199k for "Baby" in 2010. "Boyfriend" is projected to sell 400-450k for the week, which would be one of the Top 5 digital downloads total of all time. (3/28a)
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bigb0882
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Post by bigb0882 on Mar 28, 2012 15:08:31 GMT -5
400k may not be enough for #1. I thought he was outselling Fun by enough to get at least 500k in sales. Streaming could come into play, as well.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Mar 28, 2012 15:09:28 GMT -5
Hmm might not be enough for number one but interesting to watch.
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Mar 28, 2012 15:14:17 GMT -5
It looks like Gotye is slowing gaining on Fun.
44 hours ago: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.56 to 1 ratio.
24 hours ago: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.46 to 1 ratio.
Now: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.39 to 1 ratio.
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Mar 28, 2012 15:30:20 GMT -5
BELIEBE IT OR NOT: Justin Bieber’s "Boyfriend" has sold nearly 300k this week and has already surpassed his best-ever first week of 199k for "Baby" in 2010. "Boyfriend" is projected to sell 400-450k for the week, which would be one of the Top 5 digital downloads total of all time. (3/28a) nice! |
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RockaByeBaby
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Post by RockaByeBaby on Mar 28, 2012 15:46:15 GMT -5
I hope he doesn't get the #1 :x
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The Upper Hand
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Post by The Upper Hand on Mar 28, 2012 18:31:29 GMT -5
I hope he doesn't get the #1 :x "Boyfriend" could see a top five debut. |
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brucelover
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Post by brucelover on Mar 28, 2012 20:14:07 GMT -5
I think "Boyfriend" will debut at #2. Gotye should be #3.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2012 22:26:26 GMT -5
It looks like Gotye is slowing gaining on Fun. 44 hours ago: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.56 to 1 ratio. 24 hours ago: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.46 to 1 ratio. Now: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.39 to 1 ratio. Gotye's been slowly gaining on fun. since before Bieber crashed on to the chart. With the promo coming up, they are being set up quite nicely to very possibly be the next "big" song after WAY is done. |
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forg
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Post by forg on Mar 28, 2012 23:21:21 GMT -5
We Are Young's airplay is rapidly rising so that should help them keep the lead for the top spot
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Post by slicknickshady on Mar 29, 2012 1:37:06 GMT -5
Yep. Keep Beiber from #1. Come on Fun.
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brucelover
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Post by brucelover on Mar 29, 2012 3:32:51 GMT -5
It looks like Gotye is slowing gaining on Fun. 44 hours ago: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.56 to 1 ratio. 24 hours ago: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.46 to 1 ratio. Now: Fun outselling Gotye by a 1.39 to 1 ratio. Gotye's been slowly gaining on fun. since before Bieber crashed on to the chart. With the promo coming up, they are being set up quite nicely to very possibly be the next "big" song after WAY is done. Gotye is a solo artist, people need to stop referring to him as "they". |
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Post by Fat Ass Kelly Price on Mar 29, 2012 5:37:18 GMT -5
It is possible that in the context of peigan68's post, "they" referred to Gotye and Kimbra. Unlikely, but possible.
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Mar 29, 2012 7:48:29 GMT -5
Today's update:
1. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 160.818 (- 0.611)
2. ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 154.744 (- 2.852)
3. DAVID GUETTA - Turn Me On f/Nicki Minaj: 134.801 (+ 0.192)
4. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 119.990 (+ 3.872) ▲
5. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 118.349 (- 0.673) ▼
6. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 113.453 (+ 1.992)
7. KATY PERRY - Part Of Me: 107.669 (+ 0.903)
8. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 99.680 (- 1.087)
9. GYM CLASS HEROES - Ass Back Home f/Neon Hitch: 97.541 (+ 0.470)
10. DRAKE - The Motto f/Lil Wayne: 90.256 (+ 0.601)
11. WIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 88.565 (- 1.934)
12. JESSIE J - Domino: 87.616 (- 0.890)
13. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 81.715 (- 1.826)
14. PITBULL F/CHRIS BROWN - International Love: 76.185 (- 2.337)
15. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 72.691 (- 0.705)
16. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 64.567 (+ 0.507)
17. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 63.359 (+ 1.220) ▲
18. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 63.046 (- 0.536) ▼
19. CALVIN HARRIS - Feel So Close: 62.660 (+ 0.420) ▼
20. JAKE OWEN - Alone With You: 60.460 (+ 0.571)
GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 57.564 (+ 2.270)
KATY PERRY - The One That Got Away: 57.240 (- 1.261)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 56.579 (- 0.903)
LEE BRICE - A Woman Like You: 56.416 (+ 0.423)
BLAKE SHELTON - Drink On It: 55.444 (+ 0.346)
TRAIN - Drive By: 54.653 (+ 0.288)
CHRIS BROWN - Turn Up The Music: 54.187 (- 0.597)
RIHANNA - Talk That Talk f/Jay-Z: 50.764 (- 0.779)
BEYONCE - Love On Top: 50.359 (- 0.271)
RIHANNA - Birthday Cake: 48.454 (+ 0.138)
USHER - Climax: 44.589 (+ 0.799)
OUTASIGHT - Tonight Is The Night: 42.340 (- 0.154)
B.O.B - So Good: 39.325 (+ 0.347)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Good Girl: 38.666 (+ 0.209)
ADELE - Rumour Has It: 38.137 (+ 1.562)
ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 37.329 (+ 1.099)
KARMIN - Broken Hearted: 26.261 (+ 0.157)
JUSTIN BIEBER - Boyfriend: 22.428 (+ 7.024)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 19.299 (+ 0.186)
DEV & ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Naked: 15.174 (+ 0.026)
CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 12.358 (+ 1.172)
TAYLOR SWIFT - Eyes Open: 11.332 (+ 1.931)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 11.126 (+ 0.024)
JOHN MAYER - Shadow Days: 10.392 (+ 0.078)
MICHEL TELO - Ai Se Eu Te Pego/If I Catch...: 0.727 (+ 0.024)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2012 8:41:16 GMT -5
It is possible that in the context of peigan68's post, "they" referred to Gotye and Kimbra. Unlikely, but possible. No, that's exactly how I meant it. Sorry for the mistake.  |
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Post by gracelessheart on Mar 29, 2012 8:45:46 GMT -5
The Biebs isn't going to make this easy for fun, is he?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2012 8:48:31 GMT -5
On the contrary, Bieber will make it fun
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Post by ListenToItTwice on Mar 29, 2012 9:44:30 GMT -5
On the contrary, Bieber will make it fun You're right: charts where we have to speculate are much more fun than charts where we know on Wednesday who will be number-one NEXT Thursday, but I'm really getting nervous about this one.. |
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Mar 29, 2012 10:49:38 GMT -5
Holy crap is that Gotye's biggest positive?
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Mar 29, 2012 12:05:32 GMT -5
Holy crap is that Gotye's biggest positive? Yes. |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Mar 30, 2012 8:20:21 GMT -5
Last Five Threads: 4/7/12, 3/31/12, 3/24/12, 3/17/12, 3/10/12Mediabase 7-Day-Rolling Quick-Cut-Airplay Info, 3/23/12-3/29/121. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 160.061 (- 0.757) 2. ADELE - Set Fire To The Rain: 151.078 (- 3.659) 3. DAVID GUETTA - Turn Me On f/Nicki Minaj: 135.097 (+ 0.296) 4. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 123.624 (+ 3.634)5. DRAKE - Take Care f/Rihanna: 118.239 (- 0.110) 6. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 116.194 (+ 2.741)7. KATY PERRY - Part Of Me: 108.787 (+ 1.118)8. RIHANNA - We Found Love f/Calvin Harris: 98.677 (- 1.003) 9. GYM CLASS HEROES - Ass Back Home f/Neon Hitch: 98.244 (+ 0.703) 10. DRAKE - The Motto f/Lil Wayne: 90.492 (+ 0.236) 11. WIZ KHALIFA/SNOOP DOGG - Young, Wild & Free f/B. Mars: 86.560 (- 2.005) 12. JESSIE J - Domino: 86.442 (- 1.174) 13. FLO RIDA - Good Feeling: 79.787 (- 1.928) 14. PITBULL F/CHRIS BROWN - International Love: 73.680 (- 2.505) 15. BRUNO MARS - It Will Rain: 72.019 (- 0.672) 16. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 65.201 (+ 0.634) 17. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 64.970 (+ 1.611)18. CALVIN HARRIS - Feel So Close: 63.198 (+ 0.538) ▲ 19. MAROON 5 F/CHRISTINA AGUILERA - Moves Like Jagger: 62.725 (- 0.321) ▼ 20. JAKE OWEN - Alone With You: 60.684 (+ 0.224) OTHERSGOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 59.713 (+ 2.149)LEE BRICE - A Woman Like You: 56.910 (+ 0.494) TAYLOR SWIFT - Ours: 55.220 (- 1.359) BLAKE SHELTON - Drink On It: 55.800 (+ 0.356) TRAIN - Drive By: 55.090 (+ 0.437) CHRIS BROWN - Turn Up The Music: 54.119 (- 0.068) BEYONCE - Love On Top: 50.785 (+ 0.426) RIHANNA - Talk That Talk f/Jay-Z: 50.549 (- 0.215) RIHANNA - Birthday Cake: 49.050 (+ 0.596) USHER - Climax: 46.002 (+ 1.413)OUTASIGHT - Tonight Is The Night: 41.139 (- 1.201) B.O.B - So Good: 40.366 (+ 1.041)ADELE - Rumour Has It: 39.759 (+ 1.622)CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Good Girl: 38.885 (+ 0.219) ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 38.335 (+ 1.006)JUSTIN BIEBER - Boyfriend: 29.683 (+ 7.255)KARMIN - Broken Hearted: 26.762 (+ 0.501) JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 19.428 (+ 0.129) DEV & ENRIQUE IGLESIAS - Naked: 15.126 (- 0.048) CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 13.800 (+ 1.442)TAYLOR SWIFT - Eyes Open: 13.004 (+ 1.672)HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 11.050 (- 0.076) JOHN MAYER - Shadow Days: 10.173 (- 0.219) ICKI MINAJ - Right By My Side f/Chris Brown: 10.931 DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 8.060 TREY SONGZ - Heart Attack: 6.520 RITA ORA - How We Do (Party): 0.954 MADONNA - Girl Gone Wild: 0.865 MICHEL TELO - Ai Se Eu Te Pego/If I Catch...: 0.704 (- 0.023)
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