Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 14:03:01 GMT -5
MRAZ VS. RICHIE FOR #1
Veteran Singer-Songwriter Out to End Richie’s Reign After a Single Week
April 18, 2012
It’s a relative newcomer vs. a veteran for the top spot on the HITS Album chart next week.
It's still early, but right now—based on one-day sales reports from whatever’s left of the music retailing community—it looks like a battle for #1 between Jason Mraz and this week’s surprise chart-topper, Lionel Richie. The big question not yet answered is how front-loaded are Richie's physical sales following his CBS prime-time special, Lionel Richie and Friends, last Friday. As always, the picture will become clearer by tomorrow's midweeks.
Atlantic Records singer/songwriter Jason Mraz’s Love is a Four Letter Word is his fourth studio album and first in four years, since 2008’s We Sing. We Dance. We Steal Things., which sold 73k in its first week. His latest looks to do even better, with estimates in the 90-100k range.
Columbia’s Train follows up their remarkable ’09 comeback, Save Me San Francisco, and its monster, ‘Grammy-winning hit, “Hey, Soul Sister,” with California 37, which looks headed for between 65-70k in first-week sales. It’s riding on the #2 Hot AC smash, “Drive By.”
Epic hip-hop signing Future makes his debut with Pluto, featuring guest appearances from Drake, T.I., R. Kelly, Snoop Dogg and producers Will-A-Fool, Sonny Digital and K.E. on tha Track, among others. The highly touted album, preceded by the singles, “Tony Montana” and “Magic,” is on target for 35-40k
Brushfire/Universal Republic’s Jack Johnson live album, Jack Johnson and Friends—Best of Kokua Festival, looks to be headed for 20-25k
Mercury/IDJ alternative rock group Neon Trees’ sophomore album, Picture Show, is headed for 15-20k, riding the heels of the hit single (and Buick Verano commercial), “Everybody Talks.”
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Apr 18, 2012 14:20:36 GMT -5
Only 15-20k for Neon Trees? I don't follow album sales all that well, and I know "Everybody Talks" hasn't received much airplay yet, but that seems really low to me.
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Apr 18, 2012 14:24:39 GMT -5
Sounds about right for Mraz. I was expecting Train to do closer to 80k and Future to hit 50k (apparently the label under-shipped him, but 40k isn't bad) though...
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Agent Yoncé
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Post by Agent Yoncé on Apr 18, 2012 14:26:24 GMT -5
Hmmm. Interesting.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Apr 18, 2012 14:45:50 GMT -5
What have Jason's best sales weeks been for each album? I was wondering about that earlier since this album might be the best week of sales for him since I'm Yours didn't become a hit until after the last album got released so he's at a new level in his career at this point.
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Post by gracelessheart on Apr 18, 2012 14:46:30 GMT -5
...despite a number of new releases, this week seems like kind of a dud. Perhaps Train will try bundling album and concert sales midweek to stir things up...  |
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Apr 18, 2012 15:26:32 GMT -5
That's a confusing headline from HDD. Jason Mraz has been around for about ten years. They call him both a "relative newcomer" and a "veteran singer-songwriter."
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Apr 18, 2012 16:06:16 GMT -5
Next week probably won't bring BIG numbers, either- maybe The Wanted can top 100K? The following week we then have Carrie Underwood, B.O.B., Norah Jones, Now, etc.
br, Mraz would be a"relative newcomer" compared to Lionel Richie. :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 16:09:24 GMT -5
So I guess Adele won't be returning to the top as soon as next week?
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chartfreak
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Post by chartfreak on Apr 18, 2012 16:52:28 GMT -5
...despite a number of new releases, this week seems like kind of a dud. Perhaps Train will try bundling album and concert sales midweek to stir things up... But they wouldn't be real sales.  |
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forg
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Post by forg on Apr 18, 2012 17:03:19 GMT -5
Hopefully Mraz can sell 100k :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 17:05:39 GMT -5
And I will say it in this thread too. NO MADONNA. Don't mention her name. Don't mention her album. Don't mention the words 'bundling' or 'concert sales.' It's clear that there isn't a single person bringing her - or Prince - up now except to either throw shade to piss off her stans (hello, trolling!) or attacking other posters in a rush to defend her.
I'll make a slight exception if she appears in the Thursday predictions but only so that you can note that she is actually there. Otherwise she is completely off-topic to this thread. And on that note, so is Prince, so I better not see his name anywhere in here either.
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Cerbius
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Post by Cerbius on Apr 18, 2012 17:09:17 GMT -5
Darn, I was kinda hoping Adele would be able to log another week at #1. Next week's probably her best chance to log a 24th week at the top--I don't see The Wanted outselling her.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Apr 18, 2012 17:12:25 GMT -5
Next week probably won't bring BIG numbers, either- maybe The Wanted can top 100K? The following week we then have Carrie Underwood, B.O.B., Norah Jones, Now, etc. br, Mraz would be a"relative newcomer" compared to Lionel Richie. :) Yeah but their sub head is "Veteran Singer-Songwriter Out to End Richie’s Reign After a Single Week" So if Mraz is the one out to end Richie's reign, then... Mraz is also a veteran singer-songwriter? No eye for detail! Tsk tsk. :) |
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Verisimilitude
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Post by Verisimilitude on Apr 18, 2012 17:55:10 GMT -5
I thought Jason Mraz would be slightly higher considering the monstrous sales of "I Won't Give Up" during its first week.
Ditto for Train.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 17:56:26 GMT -5
Wow. I predicted a "steep" drop off for Lionel Richie and a # 1 for Train. Pending the latest results from tomorrow's update, it looks like I may be wrong on both predictions.
Only 65k - to 70k for Train? I don't mean this as a slam, but that's shocking to me...even in today's sales market.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 18:06:42 GMT -5
I'm not shocked by Train at all. They've never been a strong album seller.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Apr 18, 2012 18:06:59 GMT -5
I thought Train had made this monsterous comeback. I guess that really only applies to their singles. I kind of said the same thing in another thread. Despite their single success, the album is just now approaching 1 million sold in the US and that was with a re-release and they haven't become a huge live act either. So I was expecting more for them in week #1 but at the same time I'm not surprised.
I am surprised by Jason's numbers because he has become a pretty big live act. I was really thinking about 150,000-170,000 first week for him.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Apr 18, 2012 18:08:05 GMT -5
^But, Train's first single isn't very good. It's close to awful.
They are doing a lot of promotion this week. I saw them on Rachel Ray and they are performing somewhere else. I can't remember.
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Post by Devil Marlena Nylund on Apr 18, 2012 18:15:43 GMT -5
Have Train ever been a big album seller? I know Jason has never been so I'm surprised that he's expected to sell as much as he has but Train's direction seems to be aimed more at the single-buying pop radio population whereas Jason still seems to have more focus on his album so it does make sense in that aspect.
Jason's first album hit #55 and has been certified Platinum, Mr A-Z debuted at #5 with sales of 67,000 (three weeks in the Top 50) and his third debuted at #3 and has sold almost 1.5 million copies so far. I assume it also had a higher opening sales number than Mr. A-Z but I don't know by how much. So it looks like this week will see his highest sales yet.
His total album chart history:
Waiting On My Rocket To Come - #55
Tonight, Not Again (live) - #49
Mr. A-Z - #5
We Sing EP - #101
We Dance EP - #52
We Sing, We Dance, We Steal Things - #3
Beautiful Mess (live) - #35
Life Is Good EP - #39
Live Is A Four Letter Word EP - #56
(I assume the EP peaks are from the Billboard 200 chart as well).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 18:25:52 GMT -5
^But, Train's first single isn't very good. It's close to awful. They are doing a lot of promotion this week. I saw them on Rachel Ray and they are performing somewhere else. I can't remember. Not to be picky are an ass but Rachel ray and "another show" is alot of promo :$ I hope Jason gets the number 1....its a solid album :) |
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matelot
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Post by matelot on Apr 18, 2012 18:31:00 GMT -5
In his Chart Watch, Paul Grein wrote this the week Bruce Springsteen topped the charts :
2. Adele, 21, 195,000. The former #1 album dips to #2 following 23 non-consecutive weeks at #1. (Rest assured: it will be back on top.) This is its 55th week in the top 10. Five songs from the album are listed on Hot Digital Songs, topped by "Set Fire To The Rain," which drops from #6 to #9.
i guess he was wrong, don't you think ?
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Apr 18, 2012 18:52:57 GMT -5
Train's last album:
2/25/12 BB200:
92 TRAIN SAVE ME SAN FRANCISCO 2602 22 2135 937,904 (Gold)
Should be certified 1xp...
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forg
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Post by forg on Apr 18, 2012 19:27:18 GMT -5
In his Chart Watch, Paul Grein wrote this the week Bruce Springsteen topped the charts : 2. Adele, 21, 195,000. The former #1 album dips to #2 following 23 non-consecutive weeks at #1. (Rest assured: it will be back on top.) This is its 55th week in the top 10. Five songs from the album are listed on Hot Digital Songs, topped by "Set Fire To The Rain," which drops from #6 to #9. i guess he was wrong, don't you think ? Last week Adele was expected to reclaim the top spot this week but Lionel Richie pulled a surprise He is not wrong... yet, 21 still has a chance to reclaim the top spot but it's not a sure thing anymore as the sales already went below 100k this week and might go lower in the succeeding weeks |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2012 20:59:20 GMT -5
'Rest assured: It will be back on top' meaning this is a prediction for the future, not this week
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Gravity.
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Post by Gravity. on Apr 18, 2012 21:31:32 GMT -5
Pretty good numbers for Jason. :)
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Post by singingsparrow on Apr 19, 2012 0:54:39 GMT -5
I bet Columbia is irate that Jason Mraz moved his album up from its initial May release date so to instantly deprive Train of a top-two, even possible #1, placement.
It's no surprise, though, that Mraz would have the higher debut of the two, obviously. His fan base is much more rabid and centralized than Train's is. Train had more hits from their previous album than Jason Mraz did his, yet "We Sing, We Dance, We Steal Things" out-sold "Save Me, San Francisco" by roughly a 3-2 margin.
Namaste,
lisping HIBISCUS
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Apr 19, 2012 2:16:24 GMT -5
I wouldn't call Jason Mraz a relative newcomer any more, after ten years of hits.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Apr 19, 2012 5:31:52 GMT -5
^But, Train's first single isn't very good. It's close to awful. Well, it certainly isn't my cup of tea but it has been in the itunes top 10 for awhile now so probably the same people that liked Hey, Soul Sister are picking up the this single, too (but not the album as of yet). As for Jason, he had a huge single with his last album and has the same type of following as DMB and John Mayer. His name is much more recognizable now versus when his last album came out...thus, my higher expectations. Plus, I think his new single has been very well received. I think it will be interesting to see how John Mayer does. I know he had to postpone his tour but will he be able to do any TV to promote the album? I still expect him to be in the 100,000-130,000 range. Again, a large, loyal fanbase. With these lower numbers for Train and Jason I'm kind of afraid what Matchbox Twenty might debut with in September. Word is that this is their best album but you never know...they really been away a long time. How Far We've Come did well but they really have only had the one single in the past 9 years. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Apr 19, 2012 10:16:22 GMT -5
^John Mayer's first week estimate is 250k.
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