badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Apr 25, 2012 13:09:11 GMT -5
Maybe we just are guessing ODS wrong. Perhaps it's 1k = 1m AI = 5k ODS -- that would explain the difference.
I actually like that the formula is a bit of a mystery now. Keeps things interesting.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on Apr 25, 2012 13:17:08 GMT -5
Anyone who bet that Starships would outlast POM after they debuted together in the top 10 can collect their winnings.
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Apr 25, 2012 13:26:20 GMT -5
Ugh... I hope Train can manage a week in the top 10... the sales are there, it's just radio that needs to give it that extra push, but it's a slow climb.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 13:32:05 GMT -5
Maybe we just are guessing ODS wrong. Perhaps it's 1k = 1m AI = 5k ODS -- that would explain the difference. I actually like that the formula is a bit of a mystery now. Keeps things interesting. Payphone would still be ahead even with that formula.  I think it might be: 0.5k = 1m AI = 10k ODS |
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jgizzle89
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Post by jgizzle89 on Apr 25, 2012 14:37:46 GMT -5
I really don't like this new formula. I enjoyed seeing songs make huge #1 debuts...
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esoteric76
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Post by esoteric76 on Apr 25, 2012 14:38:05 GMT -5
^The dance airplay chart had been comprised of, what, five stations? Though now, it also includes airplay on "mix shows" that run on non-dance stations, so maybe it would be of more interest. And why aren't there most dance stations?? Never made sense to me. Especially somewhere like Miami, it should have a freaking dance station. What was the last dance station in Miami? I remember visiting around 10 years ago and there was a very hot station. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 14:53:05 GMT -5
I really don't like this new formula. I enjoyed seeing songs make huge #1 debuts... The only #1 debut we've lost out on thus far is Boyfriend. Payphone would have still missed the #1 debut with the old formula since it came out on far too competitive of a week due to Gotye's massive sales momentum. |
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RadioKaKa
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Post by RadioKaKa on Apr 25, 2012 15:02:46 GMT -5
Maybe we just are guessing ODS wrong. Perhaps it's 1k = 1m AI = 5k ODS -- that would explain the difference. I actually like that the formula is a bit of a mystery now. Keeps things interesting. Payphone would still be ahead even with that formula. I think it might be: 0.5k = 1m AI = 10k ODS 0.5k DLs = 1m AI? that doesn't decrease but increase the ratio of downloads, I think it might be 1.6k DLs = 1m AI = 20k ODS |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 15:10:34 GMT -5
^Oh right, sorry. Meant to double not half. ;)
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Apr 25, 2012 15:25:32 GMT -5
It is pretty amazing that 500K in sales gets you "only" a #3 debut ha ha. It is a competitive chart right now though in addition to the changed formula. It is interesting to think about which songs wouldn't have hit #1 at all if the current formula had been in effect. Like, Part of Me, Hold It Against Me, maybe even Born This Way? I feel like artists who rely on that first massive week to nab a #1 won't be getting them so "easy" from here on out.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Apr 25, 2012 15:28:43 GMT -5
I am betting HIAM and probably POM would not have debuted at #1. Born This Way still would have, I think.
Although probably the majority of #1 debuts in recent years would not have managed it under this formula.
Personally I find #1 debuts rather artificial... all it says is you have a huge fanbase, it doesn't really tell you if the song is actually well-liked, as we've seen with some #1 debuts that manage a single week and then fall fairly quickly.
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Post by gracelessheart on Apr 25, 2012 15:35:00 GMT -5
Agreed. Out of all the songs that debuted at numbr one in recent history, I think Born This Way was the only song that stayed there for several weeks...
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Apr 25, 2012 15:38:55 GMT -5
Songs that climb to #1 are "worth" more to me in chart terms for the reasons you stated. People put a lot of emphasis on getting a #1 peak, but I would almost rather have a #2 peak that is huge consistently and sells the album over a one week #1 that collapses afterward. Though to be fair not every #1 debut collapses afterward never to be seen again, of course.
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moore746
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Post by moore746 on Apr 25, 2012 15:39:18 GMT -5
^ just like Boyfriend, On Demand likely played a big role why the song didn't debut one rank higher. Yay for Gotye & Kimbra! Rumour Has It's airplay is rapidly rising, too bad the sales are not on the same page. Dare I say...I think people are starting to be burnt out on Adele. I know I have. Even as a mega fan since 19, it's been nonstop for going on a year and a half. |
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Post by jasontoralba on Apr 25, 2012 15:39:18 GMT -5
Maybe we just are guessing ODS wrong. Perhaps it's 1k = 1m AI = 5k ODS -- that would explain the difference. I actually like that the formula is a bit of a mystery now. Keeps things interesting. i agree with you. |
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moore746
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Post by moore746 on Apr 25, 2012 15:42:25 GMT -5
It is pretty amazing that 500K in sales gets you "only" a #3 debut ha ha. It is a competitive chart right now though in addition to the changed formula. It is interesting to think about which songs wouldn't have hit #1 at all if the current formula had been in effect. Like, Part of Me, Hold It Against Me, maybe even Born This Way? I feel like artists who rely on that first massive week to nab a #1 won't be getting them so "easy" from here on out. Also keep in mind that we have seen an explosion in sales this spring. 500k is not what it used to be, even under the old chart rules. |
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Post by josh on Apr 25, 2012 15:43:49 GMT -5
People aren't burned out on Adele, it's just so many people (9 million) already own 21 (and therefore Rumour Has It), plus another 1 million or so just Rumour Has It. The fact Rumour Has It is selling as much as it is now is quite amazing. She just needs a music video and/or a performance to boost sales once airplay is top 5, 3, or even 1. I dunno about Hot 100 #1, though, with streaming...
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Post by jasontoralba on Apr 25, 2012 15:46:23 GMT -5
^ just like Boyfriend, On Demand likely played a big role why the song didn't debut one rank higher. Yay for Gotye & Kimbra! Rumour Has It's airplay is rapidly rising, too bad the sales are not on the same page. Dare I say...I think people are starting to be burnt out on Adele. I know I have. Even as a mega fan since 19, it's been nonstop for going on a year and a half. I think the only way to boost its sales is to release a new version, not necesarilly a remix. |
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Post by Love Plastic Love on Apr 25, 2012 15:48:16 GMT -5
When your cd is about to go diamond there is only so many more singles you can sell. I bet RHI goes 2 million+ anyway.
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Apr 25, 2012 15:49:03 GMT -5
All it takes is a televised performance and Adele will be top 5 or #1. I personally think they should release a remixed version of the song.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 15:51:35 GMT -5
Agreed. Out of all the songs that debuted at numbr one in recent history, I think Born This Way was the only song that stayed there for several weeks... 6 weeks. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 15:53:16 GMT -5
I really don't like this new formula. I enjoyed seeing songs make huge #1 debuts... . I can personally live without that one. ;) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 15:54:37 GMT -5
Songs that climb to #1 are "worth" more to me in chart terms for the reasons you stated. People put a lot of emphasis on getting a #1 peak, but I would almost rather have a #2 peak that is huge consistently and sells the album over a one week #1 that collapses afterward. Though to be fair not every #1 debut collapses afterward never to be seen again, of course. Most of the recent ones have(again with the exception of BTW). |
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lugus15
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Post by lugus15 on Apr 25, 2012 16:33:50 GMT -5
I think I may have cracked the formula (or not... lol!!!).
Let's see:
50% is what people ¨buy¨ (digital + physical; tho physical is so negligible that we won't count it)
50% is what people ¨listen¨(AI + On Demand)
¨Buy¨: The #1 this week sold 493
Payphone: 493 = 100%
STIUTK: 463 = 93.91%
WAY: 251 = 50.91%
Boyfriend: 235 = 47.66%
CMM: 251 = 44.83%
¨Listen¨= The #1 ¨listened¨song this week was WAY in that 136 AI + 1.1 OD* (110) = 246
WAY: 246 = 100%
STIUTK: 85 + 1.4 (140)= 225 = 91.46%
Boyfriend: 57 + 738 (73) = 130 52.84%
CMM: 33 + 954 (95) = 128 = 52.03%
Payphone: 33 + 210 (21) = 54 = 21.95%
With take all the above data and make the sum:
#1 STIUTK: 93.91% (¨sell¨) + 91.46% (¨listen¨) = 185.37/2 = 92.68%
#2 WAY: 50.91% + 100% = 150.91/2 = 75.45%
#3 Payphone: 100% + 21.95% = 121.95/2 = 60.97%
#4 Boyfriend: 47.66% + 52.84% = 100.5/2 = 50.25%
#5 N/A
#6 N/A
#7 CMM: 44.83% + 52.03% = 96.86/2 = 48.43%
I know is a lot of math,lol.... but this little formula I made is the only one who explains why WAY was #2 this week instead of Payphone, and why GYC was #3 two weeks ago instead of WMYB and why WAY was #1 three weeks ago instead of Boyfriend.
* Here I assume that 1.1 million OD = 110 AI
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forg
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Post by forg on Apr 25, 2012 16:42:50 GMT -5
Born This Way's chart run was rather short even if was #1 for 6 weeks. It actually spent just 9 weeks in the top 10 and 20 weeks overall
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Apr 25, 2012 16:43:14 GMT -5
Very good hypothesis on the formula. I think I'd have to agree with it. It would only make sense that AI and OD would be combined together.
I do, though, wish it were just slightly more fluctuated for sales over AI and OD. A 55/45 or 60/40 would seem suffice to me. Although 50/50 is nice too.
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badrobot
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Post by badrobot on Apr 25, 2012 17:02:17 GMT -5
Billboard has always converted everything to points based, I doubt they are doing any sort of conversion to percentages that change every week.
I till think it's one of 2 things -- ODS are either worth double what we guessed (1k sales = 1M aud = 5k streams)...
Gotye 463 + 85 + 280 = 828
Fun 251 + 136 + 220 = 607
Maroon 493 + 33 + 42 = 568
or sales could have been halved in point value (2k sales = 1M aud = 10k streams)
Gotye 232 + 85 + 140 = 457
Fun 126 + 136 + 110 = 372
Maroon 247 + 33 + 42 = 322
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Post by singingsparrow on Apr 25, 2012 17:24:12 GMT -5
Ugh... I hope Train can manage a week in the top 10... the sales are there, it's just radio that needs to give it that extra push, but it's a slow climb. I think they'll dent the bottom of the Top Ten, and here's why. If it wasn't for "Payphone" making its brisance of a debut this week, they already would have made it to #10. Beyond that, though, there are three rivaling acts currently within the Top Ten that I think can be outdone. Those are Kelly Clarkson's recent chart-topper, in particular, as well as Nicki Minaj's "Starships" from a digital standpoint and One Direction's "What Makes You Beautiful" from a radio (and declining digital sales) standpoint. I expect Maroon 5 to hold their ground in the top tier due to their exponential airplay gains. But if Train were to vault ahead of Kelly Clarkson on account of digital stature, that would arguably be enough to get the job done, assuming Wiz Khalifa's first-week result is comparatively front-loaded as a lead act this week. Even if "Work Hard, Play Hard" does hold itself up well digitally and debuts ahead of Train, though, I still see a path to the Top Ten in that One Direction appears to be declining slightly digitally, and they will hit a radio ceiling quicker because boy bands traditionally are limited as to which number of formats they conquer. Meanwhile, Train still have room to grow, even if they lose a scintilla of audience at Adult Top 40 radio, at Adult Contemporary and Mainstream Top 40 radio. Namaste, lisping HIBISCUS |
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kingofpain
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Post by kingofpain on Apr 25, 2012 18:23:07 GMT -5
Yeah but One Direction is matching Train's AirPlay and probably about to overtake them. Their sales are also a bit better than Train's. All we can bank on is Kelly Clarkson falling out...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2012 18:37:32 GMT -5
I wouldn't count WMYB out just yet. It's being performed on Glee in just a couple of weeks or so and that will probably push its sales up again.
Look what it did for Gotye, regardless of how he feels about the performance.
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I think it might be:
