Billboard Hot 100: 08/04/12

[SPRΞΞ]

explain what this means: (123, 45)

[josh]

My guess is he could be European (or elsewhere, not sure what all countries do it this way), where they use , as a decimal point.

[NeRD]

FLO RIDA - Whistle: 46.534 (+ 2.183)

YES.

Hopefully the performance does wonders for his sales Sunday. :)

[SPRΞΞ]

Jul 20, 2012 15:02:25 GMT -5 josh said:

My guess is he could be European (or elsewhere, not sure what all countries do it this way), where they use , as a decimal point.

didn't think of that.

i thought one of them was airplay, and the other was sales, lol.

[nivekwriter1]

Jul 20, 2012 14:24:16 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

explain what this means: (123, 45)

In Europe you use , for a decimal point, but from now I will use . 123.45 means that the song has 123.45 points airplay and pop bars until now.

[cesarams]

Some stations were removed?
SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 187.378 (- 3.061)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 169.766 (- 4.783)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 158.364 (- 4.701)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 154.481 (- 5.221)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 138.525 (+ 0.588)
6. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 125.642 (+ 0.363)
7. USHER - Scream: 110.643 (- 3.587)
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 85.730 (- 1.335)
9. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 82.690 (- 1.631)
10. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 80.102 (- 2.059)
11. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 79.376 (- 2.748)
12. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 76.559 (- 1.033)
13. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 74.920 (- 1.310)
14. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 69.399 (- 2.924)
15. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 67.960 (+ 0.365)
16. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 64.379 (- 1.294)
17. DIERKS BENTLEY - 5-1-5-0: 62.100 (+ 0.319) ▲
18. KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 61.258 (+ 0.723) ▲
19. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 61.175 (- 1.698) ▼
20. TRAIN - Drive By: 59.278 (- 0.876) ▲

OTHERS:

ELI YOUNG BAND - Even If It Breaks Your Heart: 59.150 (- 1.224)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 58.621 (+ 1.752)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 50.853 (+ 1.076)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 49.546 (- 0.958)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 46.772 (+ 0.238)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 44.455 (- 0.810)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 38.292 (- 0.089)
JASON MRAZ - I Won't Give Up: 38.123
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 33.955 (+ 0.988)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 33.895 (+ 0.108)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 33.242 (- 0.402)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 29.137
HUNTER HAYES - Wanted: 25.422
FUN. - Some Nights: 25.024 (+ 1.514)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 24.864 (+ 0.248)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 23.467 (+ 0.835)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 21.319 (+ 0.084)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 18.976 (+ 0.377)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 17.482 (+ 3.097)
LADY ANTEBELLUM - Wanted You More: 16.369
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 14.971 (+ 1.567)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 14.242 (+ 1.979)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 11.327 (+ 0.446)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 8.514 (+ 0.950)
BEYONCE - Dance For You: 7.758
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 6.302
KILLERS - Runaways: 5.741 (+ 0.043)
ALICIA KEYS - New Day: 3.613 (- 0.205)
MARINA AND THE DIAMONDS - Primadonna: 3.007
T.I. - Go Get It: 1.409
KYLIE MINOGUE - Timebomb: 0.345

[nivekwriter1]

Jul 21, 2012 7:20:39 GMT -5 cesarams said:

Some stations were removed?
SATURDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 187.378 (- 3.061)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 169.766 (- 4.783)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 158.364 (- 4.701)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 154.481 (- 5.221)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 138.525 (+ 0.588)
6. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 125.642 (+ 0.363)
7. USHER - Scream: 110.643 (- 3.587)
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 85.730 (- 1.335)
9. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 82.690 (- 1.631)
10. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 80.102 (- 2.059)
11. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 79.376 (- 2.748)
12. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 76.559 (- 1.033)
13. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 74.920 (- 1.310)
14. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 69.399 (- 2.924)
15. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 67.960 (+ 0.365)
16. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 64.379 (- 1.294)
17. DIERKS BENTLEY - 5-1-5-0: 62.100 (+ 0.319) ▲
18. KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 61.258 (+ 0.723) ▲
19. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 61.175 (- 1.698) ▼
20. TRAIN - Drive By: 59.278 (- 0.876) ▲

OTHERS:

ELI YOUNG BAND - Even If It Breaks Your Heart: 59.150 (- 1.224)
PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 58.621 (+ 1.752)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 50.853 (+ 1.076)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 49.546 (- 0.958)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 46.772 (+ 0.238)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 44.455 (- 0.810)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 38.292 (- 0.089)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 33.955 (+ 0.988)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 33.895 (+ 0.108)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 33.242 (- 0.402)
FUN. - Some Nights: 25.024 (+ 1.514)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 24.864 (+ 0.248)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 23.467 (+ 0.835)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 21.319 (+ 0.084)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 18.976 (+ 0.377)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 17.482 (+ 3.097)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 14.971 (+ 1.567)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 14.242 (+ 1.979)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 11.327 (+ 0.446)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 8.514 (+ 0.950)
KILLERS - Runaways: 5.741 (+ 0.043)
ALICIA KEYS - New Day: 3.613 (- 0.205)

Why are almost all songs dropping now ?

[nivekwriter1]

I use daily airplay data and the pop bars to make a prediction for the hot 100. Last week i had almost the complete top 10 right, so maybe it is a good predictor.

The number you see behind the song are the points it has. For airplay you can get max. 100 points and for pop bars also 100 max. A song can max. get 200 points at 1 day. The number are the points it has from all the days from this week.

Gains
1 point more than last day: bold
2 points more than last day: green
4 points more than last day: red
5 points more than last day: purple

Prediction hot 100 (until now)

1. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone (467,45)
2. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (467,32)
3. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (446,98)
4. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know (368,1)
5. Flo Rida - Whistle (357,54)
6. Ellie Goulding - Lights (355,52)
7. Rihannna - Where Have You Been (343,38)
8. Jason Aldean - Take A Little Ride (297,4)
9. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium (281,34)
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss) (257,46)
11. Usher - Scream (251,76)
12. Nicki Minaj - Starships (210,65)
13. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful (209,89)
14. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back (206,93)
15. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young (204,12)
16. Fun. - Some Nights (197,94)
17. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go (193,02)
18. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break (190,92)
19. Neon Trees - Everybody Talks (183,57)
20. Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones (180,19)

High rises and debuts outside the top 20:

27. No Doubt - Settle Down (138,18)
30. Little Big Town - Pontoon (126,38)
33. Kelly Clarkson - Dark Side (106,83)
36. T.I. - Go Get It (93,44)

Bottom 50:

Green Day - Oh Love (19,4)
Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm (13,96)

[Lozzy]

Jul 21, 2012 7:20:39 GMT -5 cesarams said:

Some stations were removed?

On the pop chart, spin trends were higher than usual and audience trends lower. My best guess to account for that is that a few stations were added, and alongside that Mediabase decided to re-calibrate audience data, similarly to the huge change around February this year, but not to the same extent.

[josh]

HAC also had huge spin losses, Rhythmic looks like it might have lost a station but hard to tell, and AC looks to have gained some.

[SPRΞΞ]

It definitely works out in Katy and Ellie's favor as they gained 5M on everyone near the top.

[josh]

Except BDS probably didn't change anything. Just like when the top songs gained 20+ million a few months ago.

[SPRΞΞ]

Well mediabase was too abnormal before anyways. This brings it closer to reality probably.

[Agent Yoncé]

Alright for No Doubt remaining unbothered.

[brucelover]

NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 17.482 (+ 3.097)

Slay dem other hoes Gwen, slay dem.

[badrobot]

No doubt is still in week 1. You can't really detect a trend until day 8.

As for a bunch of losses -- any time that all songs seem to have a major shift in numbers it is obviously a formula change. Happens every once in awhile.

[nivekwriter1]

Airplay update (7/22/2012)

1. MAROON 5 - Payphone f/Wiz Khalifa: 187.096 (- 0.282)
2. CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Call Me Maybe: 167.796 (- 1.970)
3. GOTYE - Somebody That I Used To Know: 156.390 (- 1.974)
4. RIHANNA - Where Have You Been: 154.777 (+ 0.296)
5. KATY PERRY - Wide Awake: 141.032 (+ 2.507)
6. ELLIE GOULDING - Lights: 127.863 (+ 2.221)
7. USHER - Scream: 111.168 (+ 0.525)
8. FUN. - We Are Young f/Janelle Monae: 84.054 (- 1.676)
9. ONE DIRECTION - What Makes You Beautiful: 81.849 (- 0.841)
10. DAVID GUETTA - Titanium f/Sia: 80.522 (+ 0.420)
11. NICKI MINAJ - Starships: 78.087 (- 1.289)
12. CALVIN HARRIS - Let's Go f/Ne-Yo: 77.594 (+ 1.035)
13. THE WANTED - Glad You Came: 74.095 (- 0.825)
14. FLO RIDA - Wild Ones f/Sia: 68.262 (- 1.137)
15. DEMI LOVATO - Give Your Heart A Break: 68.020 (+ 0.060)
16. KELLY CLARKSON - Stronger (What Doesn't Kill ...: 64.224 (- 0.155)
17. DIERKS BENTLEY - 5-1-5-0: 62.715 (+ 0.615)
18. KENNY CHESNEY - Come Over: 61.521 (+ 0.263)
19. KANYE WEST - Mercy f/Big Sean/Pusha T...: 61.444 (+ 0.269)
20. PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 60.104 (+ 1.483)

Others

TRAIN - Drive By: 59.084 (- 0.194)
NEON TREES - Everybody Talks: 50.626 (- 0.227)
HAVANA BROWN - We Run The Night f/Pitbull: 50.123 (+ 0.577)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 49.211 (+ 2.439)
USHER - Lemme See f/Rick Ross: 44.798 (+ 0.343)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 39.241 (+ 0.949)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 34.568 (+ 0.673)
KELLY CLARKSON - Dark Side: 34.155 (+ 0.200)
ONE DIRECTION - One Thing: 32.947 (- 0.295)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Pontoon: 30.254 (+ 1.117)
FUN. - Some Nights: 26.004 (+ 0.980)
THE WANTED - Chasing The Sun: 25.082 (+ 0.218)
MATCHBOX TWENTY - She's So Mean: 23.728 (+ 0.261)
LINKIN PARK - Burn It Down: 21.665 (+ 0.346)
NO DOUBT - Settle Down: 20.645 (+ 3.163)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 20.404 (+ 1.428)
JASON ALDEAN - Take A Little Ride: 16.723 (+ 1.752)
GREEN DAY - Oh Love: 16.449 (+ 2.207)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Blown Away: 12.339 (+ 1.012)[/b]
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 9.323 (+ 0.809)
MAROON 5 - One More Night: 7.355 (+ 1.053)
KILLERS - Runaways: 6.019 (+ 0.278)

[Lozzy]

PINK - Blow Me (One Last Kiss): 60.104 (+ 1.483)
FLO RIDA - Whistle: 49.211 (+ 2.439)
CHER LLOYD - Want U Back: 39.241 (+ 0.949)
OWL CITY & CARLY RAE JEPSEN - Good Time: 34.568 (+ 0.673)
JUSTIN BIEBER - As Long As You Love Me: 20.404 (+ 1.428)
NICKI MINAJ - Pound The Alarm: 9.323 (+ 0.809)

Nice!

[Enigma.]

Ooh impressive for Green Day, they're a rock band after all. How did Know Your Enemy fared here?

[NeRD]

FLO RIDA - Whistle: 49.211 (+ 2.439)


FASTER.

[pisquanobreakdown]

Jul 22, 2012 7:20:37 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Ooh impressive for Green Day, they're a rock band after all. How did Know Your Enemy fared here?

Know Your Enemy reached 26.220 in audience after one month.

[Agent Yoncé]

Green Day! :o

[nivekwriter1]

I use daily airplay data and the pop bars to make a prediction for the hot 100. Last week i had almost the complete top 10 right, so maybe it is a good predictor.

The number behind the song are the points it has gained this week until now.

Gains
1 point more than last day: bold
2 points more than last day: green
3 points more than last day: red
5 points more than last day: purple

Prediction hot 100 (until now)

1. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (629.50)
2. Maroon 5 ft. Wiz Khalifa - Payphone (623.00)
3. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (602.35)
4. Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know (487.93)
5. Flo Rida - Whistle (483.84)
6. Ellie Goulding - Lights (476.98)
7. Rihanna - Where Have You Been (456.02)
8. David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium (374.34)
9. Jason Aldean - Take A Little Ride (336.33)
10. P!nk - Blow Me (One Last Kiss) (343.33)
11. Usher - Scream (343.31)
12. One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful (280.34)
13. Cher Lloyd - Want U Back (276.23)
14. Fun. ft. Janelle Monaé - We Are Young (271.79)
15. Nicki Minaj - Starships (261.00)
16. Fun. - Some Nights (266.83)
17. Calvin Harris ft. Ne-Yo - Let's Go (257.70)
18. Kayne West ft. Big Sean, Pusha T, Tyga - mercy (255.66)
19. Demi Lovato - Give Your Heart A Break (255.13)

20. Neon Trees - Everbody Talks (244.4)
20. Owl City & Carly Rae Jepsen - Good Time (244.4)

Debuts and high rises outside the top 20 (until now):

29. Little Big Town - Pontoon (183.08)
31. No Doubt - Settle Down (176.46)
34. Kelly Clarkson - Dark Side (143.04)
36. T.I. - Go Get It (120.69)
37. Justin Bieber - As Long As You Love Me (113.07)

Bottom 50:

Matchbox Twenty - She's So Mean (94.33)
Carrie Underwood - Blown Away (74.41)
Green Day - Oh Love (28.19)
Nicki Minaj - Pound The Alarm (19.64)

[ListenToItTwice]

^ I really enjoy watching this unfold over the week. Looks like Carly may have secured a seventh week. I'm interested to see how close your estimation for "Dark Side" is - it seems like a pretty big jump.

[nivekwriter1]

Jul 22, 2012 11:34:52 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

^ I really enjoy watching this unfold over the week. Looks like Carly may have secured a seventh week. I'm interested to see how close your estimation for "Dark Side" is - it seems like a pretty big jump.

Dark Side was very big digitally the last days, but now is dropping quickly. I think it won't will go the the spot it's now on and the jump eventually by far won't be that big as it is now.

[Deleted]

Shouldn't fun. be at #15 and Nicki at #16? Their points appear to be larger than hers.

[dlostfan]

This week is the last chance for Payphone to get #1. From next week, WA will be ahead.

[nivekwriter1]

Jul 22, 2012 12:46:33 GMT -5 @peigan68 said:

Shouldn't fun. be at #15 and Nicki at #16? Their points appear to be larger than hers.

you're right. Some nights is # 15

[Deleted]

Great update for Carrie!

[NeRD]

It'll be interesting to see how the KCA effect Whistle and CMM in sales...