idolman88
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Post by idolman88 on Jun 21, 2011 8:52:33 GMT -5
^^^This song is DOA. Time to move on. What song do you suggest for single #2?
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Post by Feelin'.$$$hady on Jun 21, 2011 9:56:47 GMT -5
^^^ This song His career is DOA. Time to move on. fixed.
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Streets Ahead
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Post by Streets Ahead on Jun 21, 2011 13:45:27 GMT -5
Wasn't Adam Lambert's FYE a total flop when they release it and then RCA had it recalled? Sometimes a single doesn't perform the way you predict it. Cook's career is hardly dead. His genre is more of an album seller than a single seller, anyway.
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Hook
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Post by Hook on Jun 21, 2011 15:04:38 GMT -5
His genre is more of an album seller than a single seller, anyway. I guess we'll find out whether that's true in a couple weeks, when the sales numbers come in. I'm not anticipating any big numbers.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Jun 21, 2011 15:35:17 GMT -5
I don't think there's anyway to tell what will happen on the 28th. History for this kind of situation is all over the map.
Just keeping it to idol history of 2nd albums for people who had some success on the first:
Fanny's lead single flopped but her album opened well. Archie's lead single flopped and he didn't open well. Jordin's lead single was a hit and her album did not open well. Kelly's lead single was a hit and she opened big.
Of course each situation is different so there is no need to rush in here and point all the differences out, but the overall lesson is there's no real way to know until you know.
That said, I don't think any of the indicators so far are pointing to some huge opening weekend. I don't think it will be anything high, but it could end up okay. Or not. It could be drastically low. We'll know more soon enough.
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Post by out of reach on Jun 21, 2011 16:32:23 GMT -5
^yes of course we are all speculating andf there's no way to know for sure. I wonder how much the pre-orders will impact his first week sales.
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keepitreal
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Post by keepitreal on Jun 21, 2011 17:17:36 GMT -5
^^^This song is DOA. Time to move on. What song do you suggest for single #2? I would choose Time Marches On. It is the kind of song that would get a non fan's attention. The first note grabs you. It's a perfect radio song that would make me check out the rest of the album. I don't know if we can compare a debut album to a 2nd album. FYE released to radio 10/30/09. Radio impact date: 11/2/09 WWFM released to radio 11/13/09. Radio impact date: 11/23/09FYE was pulled within 2 wks. RCA acted very quickly. WWFM was added by 2 of the biggest #1 radio stations Z100 and KISS FM and started spinning it right away. By add date it already had 5mil AI on CHR and HAC. Also Adam's primary format is POP so the single was moving really fast.
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hazuki
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Post by hazuki on Jun 21, 2011 17:41:26 GMT -5
What song do you suggest for single #2? I would choose Time Marches On. It is the kind of song that would get a non fan's attention. The first note grabs you. It's a perfect radio song that would make me check out the rest of the album. I don't know if we can compare a debut album to a 2nd album. FYE released to radio 10/30/09. Radio impact date: 11/2/09 WWFM released to radio 11/13/09. Radio impact date: 11/23/09FYE was pulled within 2 wks. RCA acted very quickly. WWFM was added by 2 of the biggest #1 radio stations Z100 and KISS FM and started spinning it right away. By add date it already had 5mil AI on CHR and HAC. Also Adam's primary format is POP so the single was moving really fast. You think it would do well on Hot AC? I would choose Paper Heart. I wasn't sure about it at first but its insanely catchy.
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keepitreal
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Post by keepitreal on Jun 21, 2011 18:38:42 GMT -5
HAC is leaning very poppish these days so I do think TMO fits well with the eclectic group of songs and would stand out on its own. I can vision a great video with song.
Paper Heart snippet was leaked weeks ago so fans got a chance for the song to grow on them. If you wasn't sure about it at first than you can see a non fan thinking the same thing. It's a OK song for me for as an album filler. It didn't grab me as quick as TMO and that is what a song should do. You want someone to go straight to iTune or Amazon and check out the rest of the album. If a song has to grow on me it may take me forever to get there.
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jools
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Post by jools on Jun 21, 2011 19:17:01 GMT -5
Wasn't Adam Lambert's FYE a total flop when they release it and then RCA had it recalled? Sometimes a single doesn't perform the way you predict it. Cook's career is hardly dead. His genre is more of an album seller than a single seller, anyway. No, I don't think FYE was a 'total flop' when they released it - it was selling well and getting a fair number of adds, for example it got 18 adds the week they switched to WWFM according to mediabase. Why they chose to switch singles is anybodies guess, perhaps they had feedback that a lot of stations wouldn't play it because of the content or perhaps RCA expected things to happen more quickly - but that was definitely a song that was never given the chance to really play out. I think this single is pretty much dead, but don't agree that it is the end of Cook's career. As you say, this genre is more about albums and Cook did really well with the first album.
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overboard
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Post by overboard on Jun 21, 2011 19:48:43 GMT -5
I don't think there's anyway to tell what will happen on the 28th. History for this kind of situation is all over the map. Here are the 2nd album opening week sales for various Idol alum (ones that released a second album on the same label). Kelly Clarkson - 297k -> 250k (84%) Clay Aiken - 613k -> 200k (33%) Ruben Studdard - 400k -> 96k (24%) Fantasia - 240k -> 133k (55%) Carrie Underwood - 315k -> 527k (167%) Daughtry - 304k -> 269k (88%) Jordin Sparks - 119k -> 48k (40%) David Archuleta - 183k -> 24k (13%) Average sales for all of the above are 63% of what they sold for the previous album. If you take out the breakouts of Kelly, Carrie, and Daughtry, that percentage falls to 33%. Cook sold 280k the first week last time around. 33% of that is 93k. Archie currently has the worst drop off. Using his same percentage, Cook would sell ~37k.
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tinawina
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Post by tinawina on Jun 21, 2011 20:34:24 GMT -5
^yes of course we are all speculating andf there's no way to know for sure. I wonder how much the pre-orders will impact his first week sales. Yeah I know we're all speculating, I'm just saying this is especially hard to predict because there is no real pattern I can find. Idols or non-Idol, the lead single on the follow up album not charting well thing is all over the map. As far as preorders, here's what we know: Official DCO site: mod said a couple of weeks (?) ago that they had sold about 5800 or so there so far. Amazon: Has been up for maybe a couple of months? No snippets yet. Did fine the first week or so maybe? Then dropped until it was off for a few days, regular version bounced back and settled in the 400s, then the 200s, etc... been floating between 50-80 since the Walmart Soundcheck went up. Walmart: both versions in the top 5 since the Soundcheck went up last week ITunes: was in the top 100 for a week and change (?).. I think it had a banner?.... but has been MIA since then. Has showed up on the pop albums chart though. On top of that, there are still no snippets! Boo! I don't know what any of this means except that I think there is no indication that tons of the pre-orders are moving. It is moving though, at least a little bit. Also, I don't know to what degree pre-orders correlate with first week sales. I'm sure you guys know more than me about that? Last time his strength was big box stores, not online, but I don't know if that could be expected to hold true again. Anyway, it looks like sales will be on the modest side but I'm not sure how modest, you know? Like reasonably modest or OMG WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED modest. LMAO!
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jun 21, 2011 20:56:58 GMT -5
I don't think there's anyway to tell what will happen on the 28th. History for this kind of situation is all over the map. Here are the 2nd album opening week sales for various Idol alum (ones that released a second album on the same label). Kelly Clarkson - 297k -> 250k (84%) Clay Aiken - 613k -> 200k (33%) Ruben Studdard - 400k -> 96k (24%) Fantasia - 240k -> 133k (55%) Carrie Underwood - 315k -> 527k (167%) Daughtry - 304k -> 269k (88%) Jordin Sparks - 119k -> 48k (40%) David Archuleta - 183k -> 24k (13%) Average sales for all of the above are 63% of what they sold for the previous album. If you take out the breakouts of Kelly, Carrie, and Daughtry, that percentage falls to 33%. Cook sold 280k the first week last time around. 33% of that is 93k. Archie currently has the worst drop off. Using his same percentage, Cook would sell ~37k. Thanks for this info. If I had to guess how much he'll sell in the first week, I would say around 50-60k.
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Post by healthyobsession on Jun 21, 2011 23:24:53 GMT -5
Surprised to see so much negativity about The Last Goodbye. I think the song is fine and the video is quirky and funny. I think one explanation for the lack of recent success of first singles for male Idol contestants may be the lack of promotion more than anything. Look at Archie's Something About Love, Lee DeWyze's Sweet Serendipity and Cook's The Last Goodbye and you see a very common thread which is the lack of a real push of the singles by the label. The same can be said about Kris Allen's The Truth. If the label wants a big first single or second single, it has to invest some money in some real promo such as high profile TV gigs, regular spins on top radio stations, big time promo with i-tunes etc. If the label had done these things for Archie, Lee, Cook and Kris, I have a feeling we would not be complaining about their song not being "good enough". Sweet Serendipity could have and should have been a bigger hit if RCA had pushed it just a little bit.
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greenlight
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Post by greenlight on Jun 22, 2011 2:04:56 GMT -5
HAC is leaning very poppish these days so I do think TMO fits well with the eclectic group of songs and would stand out on its own. I can vision a great video with song. Paper Heart snippet was leaked weeks ago so fans got a chance for the song to grow on them. If you wasn't sure about it at first than you can see a non fan thinking the same thing. It's a OK song for me for as an album filler. It didn't grab me as quick as TMO and that is what a song should do. You want someone to go straight to iTune or Amazon and check out the rest of the album. If a song has to grow on me it may take me forever to get there. I would also release Time Marches On, with a radio edit to make it shorter and possibly slightly less heavy in instrumentation. It has a good hook, and enough character to start establishing DC on HAC at least. Paper Heart is only OK for me, and also, imo, it doesn't sound current enough for radio. But we don't choose, RCA does.. :o. Hopefully, they will look at the sales of individual tracks, and they'll pick one of the most popular, not the one with the bigger co-write name. But whether RCA decides quickly or nor, he needs to perform a good song on next week TV promo appearances, not TLG. ( healthyobsession, I don't agree that TLG problem is a lack of promotion)
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overboard
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Post by overboard on Jun 22, 2011 8:04:32 GMT -5
Surprised to see so much negativity about The Last Goodbye. I think the song is fine and the video is quirky and funny. I think one explanation for the lack of recent success of first singles for male Idol contestants may be the lack of promotion more than anything. Look at Archie's Something About Love, Lee DeWyze's Sweet Serendipity and Cook's The Last Goodbye and you see a very common thread which is the lack of a real push of the singles by the label. The same can be said about Kris Allen's The Truth. If the label wants a big first single or second single, it has to invest some money in some real promo such as high profile TV gigs, regular spins on top radio stations, big time promo with i-tunes etc. If the label had done these things for Archie, Lee, Cook and Kris, I have a feeling we would not be complaining about their song not being "good enough". Sweet Serendipity could have and should have been a bigger hit if RCA had pushed it just a little bit. It is the job of the label to get the song in the top 40. A good label should be able to do that no matter how good or bad the song is. After it is in the top 40, it is up to the song to get a good response from programmers and listeners to go any further. All of the examples you used did not get a good response and that is why they failed. It wasnt because of the lack of promo. Yes, a super aggressive, super expensive radio push would have helped those songs, but no one gets those aside from the radio heavy hitters, and certainly not Idol alum on their second efforts.
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hazuki
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Post by hazuki on Jun 22, 2011 12:16:26 GMT -5
38 35 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 461 424 37 1.209
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greenlight
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Post by greenlight on Jun 23, 2011 2:32:41 GMT -5
Could "Fade Into me" be the next single? It was used on SYTYCD yesterday, and is featured on the CD sticker: twitpic.com/5faluxThe album is now #1/#8 at Walmart, #56/#245 at Amazon, and #162 iTunes. I don't know what this means in terms of sales. 50-60k may be a good guess...
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jun 23, 2011 5:34:37 GMT -5
What??? Fade Into Me and Take Me As I Am are on the sticker?? Neither one of those sounds like a hit and one of them will most likely be the next single. This era is doomed. lol
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greenlight
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Post by greenlight on Jun 23, 2011 6:22:57 GMT -5
I don't think that they sound like HAC hits either. Possibly AC..umm..Michael Buble can sell albums...
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rosemoor
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Post by rosemoor on Jun 23, 2011 14:25:09 GMT -5
What??? Fade Into Me and Take Me As I Am are on the sticker?? Neither one of those sounds like a hit and one of them will most likely be the next single. This era is doomed. lol Seems Take Me As I Am has a big chance. Cook thinks it sound like Aerosmith.
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Post by out of reach on Jun 23, 2011 14:30:12 GMT -5
What??? Fade Into Me and Take Me As I Am are on the sticker?? Neither one of those sounds like a hit and one of them will most likely be the next single. This era is doomed. lol Seems Take Me As I Am has a big chance. Cook thinks it sound like Aerosmith. I'm not really hearing an Aerosmith connection. I think what they are doing is trying to follow what Daughtry did with more ballady type songs(Life After You/September) Except these two songs are not as good and won't become big hits. I can see Take me as I am as a moderate HAC hit though. Kinda dissapointing.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Jun 23, 2011 17:59:03 GMT -5
The album is now #1/#8 at Walmart, #56/#245 at Amazon, and #162 iTunes. I don't know what this means in terms of sales. 50-60k may be a good guess... I'm going with 70k.
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HereIsGone
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Post by HereIsGone on Jun 23, 2011 18:05:10 GMT -5
Eh. Those numbers seems more like he'll get 30k-ish to me.
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Streets Ahead
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Once the sun rises it's out of my hands.
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Post by Streets Ahead on Jun 23, 2011 18:08:39 GMT -5
Was Come Back to Me on the sticker for his debut? I don't think it was and that was a single. Honestly, almost any song could be the next single. I'm sure they'll gauge the reaction from each song when the album is out.
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jun 24, 2011 6:21:51 GMT -5
Come Back was indeed on the sticker. That those two songs are on the sticker makes them huge frontrunners for being the next single.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jun 24, 2011 8:15:05 GMT -5
Surprised to see so much negativity about The Last Goodbye. I think the song is fine and the video is quirky and funny. I think one explanation for the lack of recent success of first singles for male Idol contestants may be the lack of promotion more than anything. Look at Archie's Something About Love, Lee DeWyze's Sweet Serendipity and Cook's The Last Goodbye and you see a very common thread which is the lack of a real push of the singles by the label. The same can be said about Kris Allen's The Truth. If the label wants a big first single or second single, it has to invest some money in some real promo such as high profile TV gigs, regular spins on top radio stations, big time promo with i-tunes etc. If the label had done these things for Archie, Lee, Cook and Kris, I have a feeling we would not be complaining about their song not being "good enough". Sweet Serendipity could have and should have been a bigger hit if RCA had pushed it just a little bit. It is the job of the label to get the song in the top 40. A good label should be able to do that no matter how good or bad the song is. After it is in the top 40, it is up to the song to get a good response from programmers and listeners to go any further. All of the examples you used did not get a good response and that is why they failed. It wasnt because of the lack of promo. Yes, a super aggressive, super expensive radio push would have helped those songs, but no one gets those aside from the radio heavy hitters, and certainly not Idol alum on their second efforts. For the record Kris Allen's The Truth peaked at #17 on HAC charts. It did get a modest push from Jive and was sung on idol. The future of The Last Goodbye is TBD. It is tracking much like Sweet Serendipity did for Lee where it kept moving up the HAC not on the strength of the song getting major adds but other songs falling down. Then SS hit a wall where new songs continually passed it & it failed to even make it into the top20 on HAC.
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secretchef
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Post by secretchef on Jun 24, 2011 10:38:38 GMT -5
^ The problem with TT and SS was even though they were able to charts to 17 or low 20s, their sales were terrible. Cook still isn't back in the top 1000 with TLG with all the promo that is going on right now. We'll have to wait and see if it's because of album pre-orders in place of singles sales. I'm assuming he'll be performing it next week on Today and R&K (I think.)
If that can't make it climb, time to go with Plan B.
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greenlight
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Post by greenlight on Jun 24, 2011 11:55:00 GMT -5
^ Neither TT nor SS ever had a large enough impression to generate substantial sales. TLG is doing even worse... The label may be able to push it to #20 or so, but I don't see the use of doing this except may be so that the song is not listed as a complete flop that would discourage PDs from playing a new single.
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Post by out of reach on Jun 24, 2011 12:01:27 GMT -5
^but that the problem with HAC as a format by itself. Unless your top 5 ish, songs don't sell well.
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