greenlight
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Post by greenlight on Jun 29, 2011 3:07:43 GMT -5
I think he got enough promo to sell the album. Even though he was gone a little long I don't think it matters that much, he needed a strong single. I am very surprised they are still promoting the album with TLG. Fade into me had one promo spot and it's rising on iTunes while TLG is still not in iTunes top 1000. I agree. TLG has now reached the top of overall iTunes, but it is still miserable for a lead single. The promo seems to have little effect on the song sales whereas it does give boosts to the album and Fade Into Me.
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crazychick
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Post by crazychick on Jun 29, 2011 14:26:07 GMT -5
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HereIsGone
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Post by HereIsGone on Jun 29, 2011 14:30:28 GMT -5
Looks like I wasn't too far off.
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alchemist
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Post by alchemist on Jun 29, 2011 16:01:48 GMT -5
Here are the 2nd album opening week sales for various Idol alum (ones that released a second album on the same label).
Kelly Clarkson - 297k -> 250k (84%)
Clay Aiken - 613k -> 200k (33%) Ruben Studdard - 400k -> 96k (24%) Fantasia - 240k -> 133k (55%) Carrie Underwood - 315k -> 527k (167%) Daughtry - 304k -> 269k (88%) Jordin Sparks - 119k -> 48k (40%) David Archuleta - 183k -> 24k (13%)
Average sales for all of the above are 63% of what they sold for the previous album. If you take out the breakouts of Kelly, Carrie, and Daughtry, that percentage falls to 33%.
Cook sold 280k the first week last time around. 33% of that is 93k. Archie currently has the worst drop off. Using his same percentage, Cook would sell ~37k. Clay Aiken's second album opened with 271K which is 44% of his 613K debut.It looks like Cook is matching Archie's drop-off.
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Rumors
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Post by Rumors on Jun 29, 2011 16:47:47 GMT -5
50k isn't going to be the end of the world but it's not all that great either. His first single flopping has definitely had an impact on initial album sales. It will be interesting to see if they can get a second single to impact HotAC and how much effort the label puts into it.
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jun 29, 2011 17:51:46 GMT -5
45-50k is around where I predicted. Going away for 3 years and barely being heard from in that time really made him lose some a large portion of his hard core fans that would buy the album in its first week. A poor performing single only adds to the problem. I find it quite sad that his first week sales went from 280k to this. This first week is 16-18% of that of his first album, similar to Archie's drop off. Not good...
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HereIsGone
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Post by HereIsGone on Jun 29, 2011 18:08:00 GMT -5
45-50k is around where I predicted. Going away for 3 years and barely being heard from in that time really made him lose some a large portion of his hard core fans that would buy the album in its first week. A poor performing single only adds to the problem. I find it quite sad that his first week sales went from 280k to this. This first week is 16-18% of that of his first album, similar to Archie's drop off. Not good... You've got to realize that it's not all just his fanbase declining though. A lot of well-established bands can't pull in the numbers either. I mean, when 35k can get you a top 10 spot...it says a lot about the sales climate nowadays. Using '08 numbers as a measuring stick isn't quite fair to be doing comparisons by. A lot's changed since then.
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jun 29, 2011 18:49:35 GMT -5
45-50k is around where I predicted. Going away for 3 years and barely being heard from in that time really made him lose some a large portion of his hard core fans that would buy the album in its first week. A poor performing single only adds to the problem. I find it quite sad that his first week sales went from 280k to this. This first week is 16-18% of that of his first album, similar to Archie's drop off. Not good... You've got to realize that it's not all just his fanbase declining though. A lot of well-established bands can't pull in the numbers either. I mean, when 35k can get you a top 10 spot...it says a lot about the sales climate nowadays. Using '08 numbers as a measuring stick isn't quite fair to be doing comparisons by. A lot's changed since then. I see where you're coming from, but it doesn't change the fact that a 16% drop in first week sales is terrible. Look at Daughtry's numbers from the first record to the second: Daughtry - 304k -> 269k (88%). There were a couple years between those releases in which album sales declined as well, but the big difference is that he retained 88% of the first week sales. So yeah the sales climate plays a role in declining sales, but it shouldn't make you lose approximately 85% of your first week sales from the first album to the second! Obviously there are other factors playing a role: the large period of time out of the spotlight and the poor performance of the first single.
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HereIsGone
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Post by HereIsGone on Jun 29, 2011 19:36:25 GMT -5
Obviously it is a factor of things. I never said it was solely on the sales climate. He did pretty much shoot himself in the foot for taking this long and to have a terrible-charting single doing nothing to help.
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jun 30, 2011 0:40:15 GMT -5
^So we agree then. haha
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Streets Ahead
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Post by Streets Ahead on Jun 30, 2011 2:00:27 GMT -5
RCA should've recalled TLG such a long time ago. They should have him performing FIM instead. smh.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jul 1, 2011 12:46:01 GMT -5
HDD posted their weekend update early and lowered their predictions for Cook.
David Cook (19/RCA/RMG) 38-43k
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jul 1, 2011 12:46:47 GMT -5
HAC 36 36 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 518 465 53 1.267
AC 40 39 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 42 37 5 1.072
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Post by healthyobsession on Jul 1, 2011 14:51:58 GMT -5
HAC 36 36 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 518 465 53 1.267 AC 40 39 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 42 37 5 1.072 Top 40 on two charts! Pretty good. Now is the time to really push this song and get it into the Top 30. There's still time.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jul 2, 2011 15:06:13 GMT -5
“The Last Goodbye” #10 VH1 Top 20 Music Video Countdown 07-02-2011
The video has also been moved to Large rotation by VH1.
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musicfanpete
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Post by musicfanpete on Jul 2, 2011 15:16:20 GMT -5
HAC 36 36 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 518 465 53 1.267 AC 40 39 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 42 37 5 1.072 Top 40 on two charts! Pretty good. Now is the time to really push this song and get it into the Top 30. There's still time. This song is also this week's Sure Shot on the Rick Dees Hot AC countdown. Which means this should debut next week, though occasionally they don't. But this song looks like it should be strong enough to debut on Rick's chart next week.
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Post by perfectsmile on Jul 4, 2011 13:00:46 GMT -5
TLG - good update today: 35 30 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 568 479 89 1.444 +26 Spins +23 Bullet +0.109 AI
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jul 5, 2011 16:56:21 GMT -5
HDD Final Sales Predictions
#7 David Cook – This Loud Morning – 44,090
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2011 18:26:38 GMT -5
Billboard says his final sales were 46k.
Still rather low, but better than the 38-43k that HITS was predicting.
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lockebox
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Post by lockebox on Jul 6, 2011 19:25:44 GMT -5
This album is pretty decent. "The Last Goodbye" is such a safe option for a lead single, though. "Paper Heart" or "Right Here, with You" should have been first.
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Post by MostInterestingManInTheWorld on Jul 7, 2011 9:06:38 GMT -5
All of a sudden, this song has come to life.
31 36 29 DAVID COOK Last Goodbye 19 Ent./RCA/RCAMG 2011 596 500 96 58 10.3 8.6 +1.7
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Post by onefrayedrepublic on Jul 8, 2011 13:27:55 GMT -5
heard this on the radio yesterday, not nearly as bad as I would have thought from reading earlier pages in this thread. It sounds pretty good on the radio actually.
(Then again, I thought Come Back To Me was pure gold).
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Post by perfectsmile on Jul 9, 2011 15:06:07 GMT -5
VH1 Top 20 Music Video Countdown 07.09.2011
#07 David Cook “The Last Goodbye” [4|07] [+3] New Peak
Unfortunately TLG is not in the iTunes top 1000 songs.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jul 12, 2011 22:21:59 GMT -5
Paper Heart has been streaming on Hit Predictor this week.
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trei1658
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Post by trei1658 on Jul 12, 2011 22:23:25 GMT -5
HDD Sales Predictions Week 2
LW/TW 07/23 DAVID COOK THIS LOUD MORNING 13,303
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Post by perfectsmile on Jul 13, 2011 15:56:09 GMT -5
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slamina
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Post by slamina on Jul 16, 2011 22:45:59 GMT -5
This song just lost its bullet with a peak at #29 on HAC. I wonder what RCA wil do next...
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Post by healthyobsession on Jul 17, 2011 13:47:15 GMT -5
This song just lost its bullet with a peak at #29 on HAC. I wonder what RCA wil do next... I like The Last Goodbye but even I think it is time to move on to single number 2. I have no idea what that single should be but I do know that RCA/19 has got to do more to promote it. They really dropped the ball on the first single which should easily made Top 20 or possibly Top 10 with some half decent promo.
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Jul 17, 2011 14:04:36 GMT -5
My vote goes to "Paper Heart"--to me, it screams HAC hit and is also a little more rock-oriented, which could then pave the way for things like "Time Marches On" to be singles (at least on rock), I suppose.
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idolman88
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Post by idolman88 on Jul 17, 2011 20:12:56 GMT -5
My vote goes to "Paper Heart"--to me, it screams HAC hit and is also a little more rock-oriented, which could then pave the way for things like "Time Marches On" to be singles (at least on rock), I suppose. Secound this sentiment. Though I don't think that David will have any success on Rock radio. His focus should be HAC, AC, and maybe CHR.
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