Billboard Hot 100: 01/26/13

[Deleted]

nivek, do you really think Justin will debut in the top 50? :o I was thinking low 60s to high 70s. Looking at that first full day of airplay, I'm already inwardly cringing at the eighth and ninth day drops, lol.

Jan 14, 2013 20:58:49 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

I really don't want R&B to take over radio again...oh these cycles!!

I don't want to see anything "take over" radio again. And I say this as someone who loves r&b and (used to) love rap almost as much, but there's quite a bit of difference between the 90's phase of r&b/rap that was popular but IMO more diverse (and very present but not as dominant as it later become), and the more homogenous sound that ruled the early to mid-2000s. What Adonis said is true for any phase - when one style of music becomes too predominant, it eventually becomes stagnant and eventually there's a push against it. What I hope however is that unlike the early 2000s, where the shift to urban predominance was a rather abrupt kneejerk reaction to wanting to get rid of bubblegum pop, this shift is more gradual and natural. I don't hate dance music as a whole - I enjoy quite a bit of it actually - so I don't think it needs to be completely wiped out, but so much of it is redundant now and I'd like to be rid of all but the best of it.

Jan 15, 2013 10:36:13 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Jan 15, 2013 9:29:09 GMT -5 jebsib said:

R&B was missing as a force on the Hot 100 from 1980 through 1992. That is not to say during the heyday of MJ, Prince and Whitney that there weren't still big hits by Kool & the Gang, Billy Ocean or even Bell Biv Devoe. But it was always crossover stuff that was either AC driven or uptempo pop-leaning stuff. We are in another cycle (they always follow periods of excess - the 80s was a backlash against disco, now we are in a reaction against the 2000s hip hop tsunami). R&B will come back hard some day, but it will be a natural, not forced thing.

Part of that was BB's formula. It only included Pop airplay, but all single sales. So you had a huge R&B hit like Juicy Fruit go Gold, but only peaked at 45. Had R&B airplay been included, it would've charted much higher. With the merged all formats airplay, can't really compare. Previous eras for H100. On the Pop Airplay chart, that's where to look to see if R&B starts making inroads.

I know it's likely not possible due to all the old data that would need to be found and combed through, but it would be really interesting if someone did a "what-if" Hot 100 for the years before 1992, just to see how the charts would have looked had the formula included all formats.

[Ballroom Blitzed]

There'll probably never be another Disco Demolition Night...

[It's me, bitch.]

Jan 14, 2013 2:44:17 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Taylor is pretty.

Pretty annoying. To me at least.

[kirby2725]

Jan 15, 2013 12:38:15 GMT -5 Jay D83 said:

Jan 14, 2013 16:44:04 GMT -5 josh said:

Sounds like pop PDs are ready for R&B to start being big on pop! :O

YASSS!! Usher should release the title track from his album.

or TWISTED

(pleasepleaseplease.)

[Deleted]

I suspect RCA is through with the Looking 4 Myself era :( It's been tainted so badly with the "DNW half-r&b/half pop" sentiments that I doubt a new single anywhere would help it, and I don't know if they think trying to get another top 10 hit is worth it when they could just save the effort for a new album.

As much as I like "Suit and Tie" and hope it's a success, I'm still salty that CHR basically gave the cold shoulder to "Climax." One could argue that RCA just didn't push it enough but the fact that they would have had to push it almost as if he was a new artist and not, y'know, Usher, is kind of messed up.

[Agent Yoncé]

His [Usher] era is pretty much dead. I think the album is about to drop out the BB200, if it hasn't already & the songs that follow up 'Climax' & 'Scream' didn't to much for this era. RCA is always fucking over their artists

[Agent Yoncé]

Almost 40m AI for JT. That's excellent. He did release it to iTunes yesterday, right? Which means he'll only have 3-4days of sales for this week?

*I get the cut off days mixed up. Lol

[Deleted]

No, JT has a full week of sales (Mon-Sun in the US). He has only 3-4 days in the Australia tracking week lol.

[Agent Yoncé]

See what I mean? -.- Lol. Technically he'll only have 4 days of sales that'll count for his debut on the H100, right?

[Queen of Insomnia.]

When the rolling effect starts S & T gonna have a massive drop.

[nivekwriter1]

Jan 15, 2013 12:45:08 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

nivek, do you really think Justin will debut in the top 50? :o I was thinking low 60s to high 70s. Looking at that first full day of airplay, I'm already inwardly cringing at the eighth and ninth day drops, lol.

Oh, yes, you're right. I filled in #47, but I actually meant #57.
I changes it in the prediction. I think that it will debut
somewhere around #57, so I think the low 60's also is an option.

[Deleted]

Jan 15, 2013 15:03:34 GMT -5 Agent Yoncé said:

See what I mean? -.- Lol. Technically he'll only have 4 days of sales that'll count for his debut on the H100, right?

No, yesterday was Monday so he has a full week of sales.

[Agent Yoncé]

Jan 15, 2013 15:13:35 GMT -5 @gagalicious said:

Jan 15, 2013 15:03:34 GMT -5 Agent Yoncé said:

See what I mean? -.- Lol. Technically he'll only have 4 days of sales that'll count for his debut on the H100, right?

No, yesterday was Monday so he has a full week of sales.

IDK why I'm making this more difficult than it has to be, but thank you. Lol

[rayjay]

But the sale for Justin Timberlake's Suit & Tie won't count for the January 26 charts but rather the February 2 charts because the tracking week for sales had already ended and began processing on Sunday, so it counts toward next weeks. Same with streaming. But is possible it will chart because of significant airplay, which ends tracking on Tuesday (today)
Here's the tracking weeks:
Airplay - Monday to Sunday
Streaming - Monday to Sunday
Sales - Wednesday to Tuesday

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

^is that for Australia?

[Lozzy]

Jan 15, 2013 18:50:17 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

^is that for Australia?

... no.

[Deleted]

US:
Sales: Mon - Sun
Streaming: Mon - Sun (?)
Airplay: Wed - Tue

UK:
Sun - Sat

Australia:
Fri - Thurs (but it's almost always tomorrow there)

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Jan 15, 2013 14:37:52 GMT -5 @cynthiarose said:

I suspect RCA is through with the Looking 4 Myself era :( It's been tainted so badly with the "DNW half-r&b/half pop" sentiments that I doubt a new single anywhere would help it, and I don't know if they think trying to get another top 10 hit is worth it when they could just save the effort for a new album.

As much as I like "Suit and Tie" and hope it's a success, I'm still salty that CHR basically gave the cold shoulder to "Climax." One could argue that RCA just didn't push it enough but the fact that they would have had to push it almost as if he was a new artist and not, y'know, Usher, is kind of messed up.

I honestly didn't like the song. I wasn't shocked that Climax flopped at pop. I didn't think it was a very strong single to begin with.

[areyoureadytojump]

Why are we talking about the UK/Australia in this thread?

Justin could debut on the Hot 100 this week with only 2 days of airplay.

[Au$tin]

Jan 15, 2013 22:39:48 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Justin could debut on the Hot 100 this week with only 2 days of airplay.

I mean, if Taylor could, Justin definitely can.

Kelly Clarkson did as well. And broke records by doing so. (Britney Spears did the same time and held same said record until Kelly came along and broke it just a few weeks later.)

[areyoureadytojump]

www.billboard.com/news/justin-timberlake-s-suit-tie-aiming-for-1008091712.story#/news/justin-timberlake-s-suit-tie-aiming-for-1008091712.story

Justin Timberlake's 'Suit & Tie' Aiming For Bigger Debut Than 'SexyBack'
by Keith Caulfield, L.A. | January 15, 2013 5:05 EST

Label sources suggest that "Suit & Tie" may sell around 330,000 - 350,000 downloads by the end of the tracking week on Sunday, Jan. 20. That would easily earn Timberlake his best sales week ever for a song, surpassing the 250,000 that greeted "SexyBack" in 2006.

"Suit & Tie" is exclusively available to purchase via the iTunes Store. It's the first single from his forthcoming third album, "The 20/20 Experience," due later this year. It follows his No. 1 Billboard 200 album "FutureSex/LoveSounds," which debuted atop the tally in 2006.

Yesterday, Billboard had projected that "Suit & Tie" could approach 400,000 in first-week sales. But, that forecast was based on very early data. We warned that the number would change after its first full day's worth of sales could be examined, and thus better project its debut week.

How does "Suit & Tie's" forecasted first-week stack up when compared to other recent notable debuts? Actually, pretty great -- but not off-the-charts spectacular.'

Only seven songs in the past year have debuted with 300,000 or more in sales, thus, "Suit & Tie" could be in pretty elite company. The largest sales week of 2012 was registered by Taylor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," which debuted with 623,000 sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan.

Some observers may wonder why -- after Timberlake's long absence from from the music scene -- "Suit & Tie's" sales may not match those of Swift or even Justin Bieber, who saw his "Boyfriend" bow with 521,000 earlier in 2012. Unlike those tracks, which arrived after weeks of promotion and buzz, Timberlake's song bowed only a few days after a surprise announcement from the singer.

Also working against Timberlake is that his fan base has likely aged since his last album. They aren't seemingly as fast-reacting as the young teen and tween fans of Swift and Bieber.

HOT 100 (AND AIRPLAY) ACTION: Meanwhile, in terms of airplay, "Suit & Tie" ranks at No. 6 on the building Pop Songs airplay chart with approximately 2,000 pop radio spins in just more than a day and a half, according to Nielsen BDS. The song will make a lofty debut on Pop Songs when the chart is refreshed on Monday (Jan. 21).

While Pop Songs runs on a Monday-through-Sunday cycle, the all-format Radio Songs chart covers airplay on a Wednesday-through-Tuesday tracking period, so yesterday and today's airplay should help spur a debut for the song on the Hot 100 this week based on airplay alone. (Sales and streaming data run Monday-through-Sunday and will not affect the Hot 100 until next week).

In the meantime, "Suit" should debut on this week's Hot 100 thanks to its approximately 31 million all-format audience impressions garnered since its release, which should translate to a top 40 start on the Radio Songs chart and a debut in the Hot 100's lower half. (This week's Hot 100 will be released on Thursday [17], with highlights posted on Billboard.com tomorrow.)

Once sales and streaming are added -- and a full week's-worth of airplay factors in -- the song could challenge for the top of the Hot 100 next week.

"Suit & Tie" will mark Timberlake's 21st Hot 100 entry. It's his first radio-promoted single as a lead artist since "Until the End of Time" (a duet with Beyonce) reached No. 17 in late 2007

[cesarams]

WEDNESDAY'S UPDATE:
TOP 20:

1. BRUNO MARS – Locked Out Of Heaven: 207.788 (- 0.564)
2. LUMINEERS – Ho Hey: 163.679 (+ 0.130) ▲
3. RIHANNA – Diamonds: 163.102 (- 2.881) ▼
4. TAYLOR SWIFT – I Knew You Were Trouble: 133.911 (+ 3.858)
5. MAROON 5 – One More Night: 127.969 (- 1.557)
6. FLO RIDA – I Cry: 127.104 (- 1.696)
7. JUSTIN BIEBER – Beauty And A Beat f/N. Minaj: 124.533 (+ 1.015)
8. PINK – Try: 108.082 (+ 0.755) ▲
9. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Home: 106.539 (- 1.116) ▼
10. ED SHEERAN – The A Team: 91.910 (- 0.230)
11. SWEDISH HOUSE MAFIA – Don't You Worry Child: 90.138 (+ 1.665) ▲
12. ALICIA KEYS – Girl On Fire: 89.065 (+ 0.264) ▲
13. FUN. – Some Nights: 87.982 (- 1.024) ▼
14. NE-YO – Let Me Love You: 87.491 (- 1.705) ▼
15. KE$HA – Die Young: 81.211 (- 2.360)
16. WILL.I.AM & BRITNEY SPEARS – Scream And Shout: 73.746 (+ 1.802) ▲
17. MIGUEL – Adorn: 72.521 (- 0.275) ▼
18. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Thrift Shop f/Wanz: 65.804 (+ 2.578) ▲
19. PITBULL – Don't Stop The Party: 65.693 (+ 0.908)
20. KELLY CLARKSON – Catch My Breath: 64.872 (+ 1.382) ▲

OTHERS:

ZAC BROWN BAND – Goodbye In Her Eyes: 64.817 (- 0.872)
RANDY HOUSER – How Country Feels: 64.054 (+ 0.509)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – It's Time: 63.266 (+ 0.464)
CALVIN HARRIS – Sweet Nothing f/Florence Welch: 58.543 (+ 0.521)
MAROON 5 – Daylight: 58.085 (+ 1.192)
KE$HA – C'mon: 50.083 (+ 0.446)
JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Suit & Tie f/JAY Z: 48.920 (+ 9.466)
MUMFORD & SONS – I Will Wait: 47.053 (+ 0.213)
OF MONSTERS AND MEN – Little Talks: 41.755 (+ 0.410)
CARRIE UNDERWOOD – Two Black Cadillacs: 40.906 (+ 0.571)
ONE DIRECTION – Little Things: 33.532 (+ 0.338)
RIHANNA – Pour It Up: 24.212 (+ 0.869)
MUSE – Madness: 23.725 (+ 0.056)
BLAKE SHELTON – Sure Be Cool If You Did: 20.343 (+ 0.873)
FUN. – Carry On: 15.589 (+ 0.351)
TRAIN – Mermaid: 9.848 (+ 0.080)
PITBULL – Feel This Moment: 6.619 (+ 0.134)
C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.851 (- 0.116)
BON JOVI – Because We Can: 3.901 (+ 0.409)
SKYLAR GREY – C'mon Let Me Ride f/Eminem: 1.499 (+ 0.104)

[Rhythm Nation]

Go Slaylor gift from God!!!

Will she be able to top the Airplay chart, even without much Rhythmic play?

[Queen of Insomnia.]

Can anyone give me Bruno's When I Was Your Man update + AI?

[keyboard]

Awww yeah! Kelly finally top 20! :)

[Rhythm Nation]

Why is this not smashing, at least on AC and Hot AC..? :(

C. AGUILERA & B. SHELTON – Just A Fool: 5.851 (- 0.116)

[dlostfan]

'Suit & Tie' will have around 36 million AI on BDS. That should enable it to chart but only just (in the 80s probably). Taylor Swift's 'We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together' had debuted at #72 with 40 millions AI I believe.

[cesarams]

^You meant "WANEGBT"?

[HolidayGuy]

^Yes- that's the one.

Rhythmboy- Aguilera is not a hot commodity at radio right now s a lead act. And after the performance of the first single, it's not too shocking that the second single isn't burning up the airwaves. It's faring best at Hot AC.

[dlostfan]

Jan 16, 2013 8:29:34 GMT -5 cesarams said:

^You meant "WANEGBT"?

Oops! Typo..... sorry.

Fixed.