Billboard Hot 100: 03/02/13

[Au$tin]

Feb 21, 2013 11:02:21 GMT -5 damku13 said:

Very VERY curious to know if Rebecca Black's "Friday" would've hit #1, and if so for how long. I hope somebody figures out the math around the new rules, and looks back to find out :)

It definitely would have. When it went viral, it actually got more airplay than "Harlem Shake" is getting now. Its digital sales weren't as good as "Harlem Shake," but it did manage to sell decently when it went viral. It definitely would've went to #1 and probably would've stayed there for somewhere between two to four weeks.

It would've been up against "Born This Way," by the way.

[Deleted]

In the here and now, MTV is not a music channel. There are many others today that actually play music

[Au$tin]

Feb 21, 2013 11:04:24 GMT -5 @2m said:

In the here and now, MTV is not a music channel. There are many others today that actually play music

CMT, Fuse, VH1, and MTV are the main four. Fuse is the only one that really still plays music often, but even then they don't really play a lot of current hits like they used to.

The others, like GAC, VH1 Classic, MTV Hits, etc. don't get high enough ratings to affect the charts.

[fridayteenage]

Feb 21, 2013 1:34:31 GMT -5 kml567 said:

I think this is the new Hot 100 formula: 100k downloads = 62.5 mil AI = 4 million streams.

In other words, points = sales + airplay *1.6 + streaming * 25

The math works out well for Harlem and Thrift Shop. It also works for Stay vs S&S.

This formula means that a viral video (100 million streams) is equivalent to 2.5 million digital downloads!

You know, I think you might be right. I think I was too hung up on "three and a half," so I found a solution that technically worked last night to give Harlem almost exactly 3.5x the points. But it was sales + airplay + (streaming*23), and 23 is a random number. It is definitely possible that "three and a half" is a vaguely defined rounding issue.

Though either way, it kinda makes sense that 100 mil streams=millions of downloads.
Since Harlem Shake had 20x the streams of the #3 streaming song. If some song sold 20x the downloads of the #3 download, it would certainly be in the millions.

Also, to those of you looking to go crazy with streaming for a certain song, if 40 streams is worth a download, So since there are about 10000 minutes a week, if you had your computer non-stop running Youtube (keeping it wasting electricity going through the wee night during your sleep), refreshing a Youtube video once a minute, your views would be the equivalent of 250 downloads. Which certainly sounds good, but aside from the insanity and wastefulness, it wouldn’t make a huge difference when Thrift Shop has 10 mil views a week (1 thousand times your views), or Harlem Shake has 100 mil views a week (10 thousand times your views).

If you decided to be more rational and just played a song nonstop for an hour (but only a minute each time before refreshing), that would be the equivalent of 1.5 downloads. I think most people are more like me – even if I like a song a lot, I’m unlikely to actually listen to it even 40 times a week. When I see it from this perspective, it seems more reasonable. Let’s say Harlem didn’t exist. Then the #1 streamer would get around 230 points from that, and the #1 radio song would be getting 130-ish points from that. That seems sane.

[areyoureadytojump]

Since Stay did go Top 10:

Artists With the Most Hot 100 Top 10s:

38, Madonna
34, the Beatles
28, Michael Jackson
28, Stevie Wonder
27, Mariah Carey
27, Janet Jackson
27, Elton John
25, Elvis Presley (whose career predates the Hot 100's Aug. 4, 1958, launch)
24, Rihanna *new*
23, Whitney Houston
23, the Rolling Stones
22, Paul McCartney
20, Chicago
20, the Supremes

[jebsib]

In the 80s they did not include MTV videos for three prime reasons:

a) They could never determine whether videos were successful for the SONG or the artist image; There were plenty of huge songs with weak videos that got weak MTV support, and vice versa.
b) Believe it or not, most people did not have MTV in the 80s. Cable penetration was not ubiquitous and thus the chart manager (Michael Ellis) felt it was a lopsided proposition population-wise.
c) MTV was VERY prone to label manipulation (payola / deals). It was not always an accurate indicator of what was popular.

[Au$tin]

Feb 21, 2013 11:24:57 GMT -5 jebsib said:

In the 80s they did not include MTV videos for three prime reasons:

a) They could never determine whether videos were successful for the SONG or the artist image; There were plenty of huge songs with weak videos that got weak MTV support, and vice versa.

The same can be said for YouTube, no? People certainly didn't watch "Friday" because they song was great.

[fridayteenage]

Incorrect.

[Deleted]

Susan Boyle's I dreamed a dream woulda been #1 :o

[Au$tin]

Feb 21, 2013 11:29:44 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Incorrect.

You think people watched "Friday" because they loved the song?

Or is this not in response to my post?

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2013 11:32:42 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Feb 21, 2013 11:29:44 GMT -5 fridayteenage said:

Incorrect.

You think people watched "Friday" because they loved the song?

Or is this not in response to my post?

some may have

others probably did it to follow the hype

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2013 11:29:03 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Feb 21, 2013 11:24:57 GMT -5 jebsib said:

In the 80s they did not include MTV videos for three prime reasons:

a) They could never determine whether videos were successful for the SONG or the artist image; There were plenty of huge songs with weak videos that got weak MTV support, and vice versa.

The same can be said for YouTube, no? People certainly didn't watch "Friday" because they song was great.

They watched it because the song was so bad that it was addictive. That was the appeal, if it was just a boring bad song (ex: just clapping for 3 minutes) then no one would care.

[Au$tin]

The Hot 100 is set to measure a song's popularity. Let's just use "Friday" as an example. With the current forumla, it surely would've been a #1 hit. However, that's not the song's doings. Do you want to know what the song actually did? It did not chart in airplay. It made into the top 40 on iTunes.

A video is there as promotion of a song. It's to draw people in to check out the song. If they like it, then they will download it, stream it, request it, etc. "Friday" has hundreds of millions of views. Yet, those views only translated into a few hundred thousand sales and little to no requests. (If it did get any requests, it was most likely jokingly.)

This is why I think the formula needs to be changed. It's great that YouTube now counts, but I still think it counts for way more than it should.

Edit:
Did anyone else notice "Madness" was sent to recurrency? Why is that? It's still gaining on pop.

[Deleted]

Friday made the top 20 on iTunes

But your argument doesn't work with Harlem Shake, since it's #1 on iTunes selling a few hundred thousand a week. Songs like Friday are pretty rare, if there has even been another "so bad it's funny" song. Otherwise people have to like the song aswell. (Call Me Maybe, Gangnam Style, etc)

But same thing could be said for the sales of Friday, a big chunk of it was probably just buying it for lulz to see it climb the chart, but Billboard can't just disregard those.

I also really like this chance because that means labels will want to make their videos better/funnier, which is always good for us.

[Au$tin]

"Harlem Shake" may be #1 on iTunes as it seems, but "Thrift Shop" is the real #1 on iTunes when you combine its multiple versions. The song may be becoming a hit, but it is in no way bigger than "Thrift Shop" at this point in time. People are watching it on YouTube because of the 30 second clips, not because of the song.

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2013 11:54:35 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

"Harlem Shake" may be #1 on iTunes as it seems, but "Thrift Shop" is the real #1 on iTunes when you combine its multiple versions. The song may be becoming a hit, but it is in no way bigger than "Thrift Shop" at this point in time. People are watching it on YouTube because of the 30 second clips, not because of the song.

Thrift shop is barely ahead of it combined, and it has plenty of airplay, streaming, and Youtube views to boost its sales while Harlem Shake just has a couple 30 second clips.

I think in this day and age visuals and audio are tightly combined. It's also funny that we're having this conversation while the song Harlem Shake is blocking is also a novelty song... Do people like it because it's a good song, or because it's a funny song? People probably like Harlem Shake (the song) because the song reminds them of the funny clips, which makes them like it more.

[allow that]

Feb 21, 2013 11:54:35 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

"Harlem Shake" may be #1 on iTunes as it seems, but "Thrift Shop" is the real #1 on iTunes when you combine its multiple versions. The song may be becoming a hit, but it is in no way bigger than "Thrift Shop" at this point in time. People are watching it on YouTube because of the 30 second clips, not because of the song.

A lot of it is regional though. Where I live, I never hear "Thrift Shop" spoken about & rarely hear it out. "Harlem Shake" is inescapable.

[Pink Pvssy]

I can't wait for Britney to shave her head with Scream & Shout on the background. That will make the song #1 for sure. This new formula sucks!!!!!!

[Au$tin]

Agree to disagree I guess. I just can't fathom "Harlem Shake" reaching #1 like this. I'd be more inclined to accept it if it actually had the airplay and non-video streaming to back it up like "Thrift Shop."

In the tracking week, "Harlem Shake" beat out "Thrift Shop" in only one of the six components of the Hot 100, yet it gets to be #1? Mmkay...

I'd also be a lot more compelled to believe it as the actual #1 if Billboard wasn't counting its hundreds of 30 second meme videos.

[areyoureadytojump]

^I agree. It's a mess.

[Deleted]

Feb 21, 2013 12:03:00 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

In the tracking week, "Harlem Shake" beat out "Thrift Shop" in only one of the six components of the Hot 100, yet it gets to be #1? Mmkay...

Isn't that what all those digital #1 debuts have been? 3, We R Who We R, Hold It Against Me, Born This Way etc etc all only beat out the previous #1 in one component, sales.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

How often do we think a song will come out of nowhere because of YouTube though? I think Harlam Shake is a pretty exaggerated example of what could become the norm. Last there, there were only a few really big viral songs. Gotye, Carly Rae and Psy being the bigger ones and according to the guy on Billboard, Harlam Shake has passed Psy x3. Sure, it could happen again but I think viral videos and memes like this one aren't a dime a dozen and they don't happen that often even though we might think it is. What we're seeing this week is a really extreme example that has probably never actually happened to the degree it is this week. Just because Harlam Shake has like 3 or 4 times the number of points Thrift Shop has, doesn't mean every #1 from now on will.

People seem to be angry over the change because their favs don't have the chance to do as well as they have been able to and/or radio isn't as big a component as it used to be. I think this idea of allowing radio to dictate what's "popular" and what's a "hit" should be moved to the past. It's still an important element but just because it's the way it's always been, doesn't mean it's the way it should be. What is "popular" changes as technology changes and thus the ways to determine that changes too.

Feb 21, 2013 9:37:29 GMT -5 SuperTrouper said:

Another potential consequence: Artists releasing multiple versions of videos to get higher peaks. Alternate edits, director's cuts, live versions, etc.

Especially big stars with highly-anticipated music videos can use this trick very efficiently, since they get a lot of curiosity views right out of the gate. Multiple versions of a video could amplify this effect.

That's been a problem for years. They're called remixes.

[Au$tin]

Feb 21, 2013 12:16:37 GMT -5 Codex said:

Feb 21, 2013 12:03:00 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

In the tracking week, "Harlem Shake" beat out "Thrift Shop" in only one of the six components of the Hot 100, yet it gets to be #1? Mmkay...

Isn't that what all those digital #1 debuts have been? 3, We R Who We R, Hold It Against Me, Born This Way etc etc all only beat out the previous #1 in one component, sales.

Other than "Born This Way," I don't consider those to be #1 hits either.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Feb 21, 2013 12:03:00 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

In the tracking week, "Harlem Shake" beat out "Thrift Shop" in only one of the six components of the Hot 100, yet it gets to be #1? Mmkay...

The way I see it is, if this current tracking system were around in September 1997, Elton John would have still debuted at #1 with Candle In The Wind based on the huge amount of CD-single sales the song got. Sales is just one of the six components of the Hot 100 but hypothetically, a song can still get to #1 in an extreme week where the sales of that song are astronomical, just like this week with video views of Harlam Shake.

[Au$tin]

Feb 21, 2013 12:34:44 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Feb 21, 2013 12:03:00 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

In the tracking week, "Harlem Shake" beat out "Thrift Shop" in only one of the six components of the Hot 100, yet it gets to be #1? Mmkay...

The way I see it is, if this current tracking system were around in September 1997, Elton John would have still debuted at #1 with Candle In The Wind based on the huge amount of CD-single sales the song got. Sales is just one of the six components of the Hot 100 but hypothetically, a song can still get to #1 in an extreme week where the sales of that song are astronomical, just like this week with video views of Harlam Shake.

But like I said before, "Harlem Shake"'s views are only that high becuase Billboard is counting the 30 second clips, which I highly disagree with.

[kingofpain]

Dammit, Mumford and Sons missed out on what was probably their only chance at the top 10...

[imbondz]

so let's say 5 million of those Youtube views of this 'popular' song is to see what the fuss is about, and hate it. How does that factor in?

[allow that]

Feb 21, 2013 12:36:20 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

But like I said before, "Harlem Shake"'s views are only that high becuase Billboard is counting the 30 second clips, which I highly disagree with.

Do we know this for sure?

[imbondz]

I hate this formula. I think Billboard waaaay overreacted to youtube viewing.

[Envoirment]

Feb 21, 2013 12:48:40 GMT -5 allow that said:

Feb 21, 2013 12:36:20 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

But like I said before, "Harlem Shake"'s views are only that high becuase Billboard is counting the 30 second clips, which I highly disagree with.

Do we know this for sure?

The fact it has 103 million in streaming kinda confirms this. If they weren't counted, then it would only have a few million views for the original recording of the song.