Billboard Hot 100: 07/06/2013

[badrobot]

I really think the chances for Harlem Shake are being overstated. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if it misses the top ten on the year end countdown (although I'm guessing more like 7-10 range). There's a "long tail" factor in play in the year end charts, where songs that may not have had huge weeks at the top but have consistency otherwise often outperform expectations (see Ellie Goulding last year), while big songs with fast burns end up ranking surprisingly low (see "Born This Way").

It's interesting to look at the points this way, but we also don't know how BB will weight things at the end of the year either, particularly when it comes to compensating for the mid-year formula change.

[Soulsista]

Top 10s from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:

7/8/78

01 01 Shadow Dancing - Andy Gibb (4th of 7 weeks at #1)
02 02 Baker Street - Gerry Rafferty
03 04 Take a Chance On Me - ABBA
04 05 Use Ta Be My Girl - The O'Jays
05 07 Still The Same - Bob Seger & The Silver Bullet Band
06 03 It's a Heartache - Bonnie Tyler
07 14 Miss You - Rolling Stones
08 09 Dance With Me - Peter Brown w/Betty Wright
09 10 The Groove Line - Heatwave
10 06 You Belong To Me - Carly Simon

7/9/83

01 03 Every Breath You Take - The Police (1st of 8 weeks at #1)
02 02 Electric Avenue - Eddy Grant
03 01 Flashdance...What a Feeling - Irene Cara
04 05 Never Gonna Let You Go - Sergio Mendes w/Joe Pizzulo & Leza Miller
05 07 Too Shy - Kajagoogoo
06 09 Wanna Be Startin' Something - Michael Jackson
07 04 Time (Clock Of The Heart) - Culture Club
08 11 Come Dancing - The Kinks
09 06 Don't Let It End - Styx
10 13 Our House - Madness

7/9/88

01 03 The Flame - Cheap Trick (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 06 Mercedes Boy - Pebbles
03 07 Pour Some Sugar On Me - Def Leppard
04 09 New Sensation - INXS
05 01 Dirty Diana - Michael Jackson
06 08 Nothin' But a Good Time - Poison
07 02 Foolish Beat - Debbie Gibson
08 15 Hold On To The Nights - Richard Marx
09 05 The Valley Road - Bruce Hornsby & The Range
10 11 Nite And Day - Al B. Sure!

7/3/93

01 01 That's The Way Love Goes - Janet Jackson (8th and final week at #1)
02 02 Weak - SWV
03 03 Knockin' Da Boots - H-Town
04 08 Whoomp! (There It Is) - Tag Team
05 05 Have I Told You Lately - Rod Stewart
06 06 Show Me Love - Robin S
07 13 Can't Help Falling In Love - UB40
08 09 Dre Day - Dr. Dre
09 07 Come Undone - Duran Duran
10 11 I'll Never Get Over You (Getting Over Me) - Expose

[Linnethia Monique]

Longevity on the chart is key. That is something HS shake did not have. TS is still Top 20 after how many weeks on the chart? Radioactive could also be in contention for Top 10 seeing how it has been growing on the chart since it first hit the chart 42 weeks ago. It's now blowing up at the right time.

[jebsib]

If Harlem Shake were to be the #1 Hot 100 song of the year, BB knows its credibility is on the line.

[velaxti]

A lot of it depends on whether the recurrent weeks get counted for the year-end chart. For example, Harlem Shake won't get much sales and airplay when it's recurrent, whilst a song like Just Give Me a Reason will get a lot, but if the recurrent weeks don't count then that won't matter (which hinders the consistent songs a bit, although they still benefit from the weeks they actually chart of course).

Also, in last year's year-end chart, the songs that were hits pre-streaming (e.g. Stronger, We Found Love, Starships, etc.) were lower down than people expected, while the songs that were hits just after streaming got added (e.g. Glad You Came, Lights, etc.) were a big higher than people expecting, so that might happen with 2013's year-end chart.

[Au$tin]

Recurrent weeks are not counted in the Hot 100. Only weeks when the song was on the chart.

And like @xiivi pointed out in his post that I quoted on the last page, even if we stretch out "Harlem Shake"'s massive weeks at #1 from 5 to 13, it still doesn't even hold a candle to "Thrift Shop."

[SPRΞΞ]

if it was 2008 right now, the gay clubs would be exploding right now with I Kissed a Girl. I remember it.

[Verisimilitude]

Jun 25, 2013 16:50:36 GMT -5 Soulsista said:

Top 10s from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:


7/3/93

10 11 I'll Never Get Over You (Getting Over Me) - Expose

What a great song!

[surreallife]

Jun 25, 2013 18:00:41 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Recurrent weeks are not counted in the Hot 100. Only weeks when the song was on the chart.

And like @xiivi pointed out in his post that I quoted on the last page, even if we stretch out "Harlem Shake"'s massive weeks at #1 from 5 to 13, it still doesn't even hold a candle to "Thrift Shop."

I think 18 weeks is closer to the truth then 13.  Chart positions and chart longevity can be very misleading when it comes predicting the year-end results.  "Candle In The Wind 1997" was the #1 song of 1997 after just 8 weeks on the HOT100.

I think "Thrift Shop", "Harlem Shake", "Blurred Lines", "Can't Hold Us", "Just Give Me A Reason", "Locked Out of Heaven", "Radioactive", "When I Was Your Man" and "I Knew You Were Trouble" are good bets for the year-end top 10, with "Thrift Shop" ending up on top.

[brady47]

Jun 25, 2013 16:51:53 GMT -5 Linnethia Monique said:

Longevity on the chart is key. That is something HS shake did not have. TS is still Top 20 after how many weeks on the chart? Radioactive could also be in contention for Top 10 seeing how it has been growing on the chart since it first hit the chart 42 weeks ago. It's now blowing up at the right time.

I agree, I think that TS longevity is amazing. But the chart lead Harlem Shake had was out of the park, that alone may be enough to make it rank really high on the year end charts (god forbid it becomes #1).

Some of the best selling UK singles of the DECADE were only on the charts for about 10 weeks, not a lot of longevity but mega points, which might be like Harlem Shake.

[brady47]

Jun 25, 2013 19:13:51 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Jun 25, 2013 18:00:41 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Recurrent weeks are not counted in the Hot 100. Only weeks when the song was on the chart.

And like @xiivi pointed out in his post that I quoted on the last page, even if we stretch out "Harlem Shake"'s massive weeks at #1 from 5 to 13, it still doesn't even hold a candle to "Thrift Shop."

I think 18 weeks is closer to the truth then 13.  Chart positions and chart longevity can be very misleading when it comes predicting the year-end results.  "Candle In The Wind 1997" was the #1 song of 1997 after just 8 weeks on the HOT100.

I think "Thrift Shop", "Harlem Shake", "Blurred Lines", "Can't Hold Us", "Just Give Me A Reason", "Locked Out of Heaven", "Radioactive", "When I Was Your Man" and "I Knew You Were Trouble" are good bets for the year-end top 10, with "Thrift Shop" ending up on top.

I really hope IKYWT can become a year end top 10, it didn't have the super longevity of Love Story or You Belong With Me, but it still had decent longevity, with 16 weeks in the Top 10, 20 weeks in the Top 20 and it is her biggest hit worldwide. If only there was streaming for it, could it possibly have been a #1.

[Deleted]

Jun 25, 2013 19:13:51 GMT -5 surreallife said:

I think 18 weeks is closer to the truth then 13.

Now you're just being lazy.

Jun 25, 2013 16:14:46 GMT -5 surreallife said:

March 2nd:  HS - 280,373, TS - 79,383, Difference - 200,990;
March 9th:  HS - 272,558, TS - 74,583, Difference - 197,975;
March 16th: HS - 157,103, TS - 72,017, Difference - 85,086;
March 23rd: HS - 138,120, TS - 68,500, Difference - 69,620;
March 30th: HS - 84,961, TS - 66,908, Difference - 18,053.

The average of those 5 TS weeks is about 72,278; when it would have been #1 under normal methodology before the rule change. So saying that that is about the normal number of points for a #1 week: 13 weeks is 939,616 points, 18 weeks is 1,301,008 points. It turns out if you add up the points you have for Harlem Shake in those five weeks, you get....933,115 points! Which nearly matches the 13 week estimate, not the 18 week estimate.

[Deleted]

Here is the Billboard Top 10 for exactly 50, 45 and 40 years ago this week.

July 6, 1963

TW LW WK
01 05 05 Easier Said Than Done - The Essex (1 week at #1)
02 01 09 Sukiyaki - Kyu Sakamoto
03 04 08 Blue On Blue - Bobby Vinton
04 03 10 Hello Stranger - Barbara Lewis
05 02 09 It's My Party - Lesley Gore
06 07 06 One Fine Day - The Chiffons
07 10 04 Surf City - Jan & Dean (future #1)
08 09 05 Memphis - Lonnie Mack
09 13 06 So Much In Love - The Tymes (future #1)
10 14 05 Tie Me Kangaroo Down, Sport - Rolf Harris

July 6, 1968

TW LW WK
01 01 08 This Guy's In Love With You - Herb Alpert (3 weeks at #1)
02 02 07 The Horse - Cliff Nobles & Co.
03 11 05 Jumping Jack Flash - The Rolling Stones
04 05 09 The Look Of Love - Sergio Mendes & Brasil '66
05 13 05 Grazing In The Grass - Hugh Masekela (future #1)
06 15 05 Lady Willpower - Gary Puckett And The Union Gap
07 07 10 Angel Of The Morning - Merrilee Rush & The Turnabouts
08 09 06 Here Comes The Judge - Shorty Long
09 03 09 MacArthur Park - Richard Harris
10 10 08 Reach Out Of The Darkness - Friend And Lover

July 7, 1973

TW LW WK
01 03 15 Will It Go Round In Circles - Billy Preston (1 week at #1)
02 05 08 Kodachrome - Paul Simon
03 02 13 My Love - Paul McCartney & Wings
04 01 08 Give Me Love(Give Me Peace On Earth) - George Harrison
05 12 12 Bad, Bad Leroy Brown - Jim Croce (future #1)
06 07 16 Playground In My Mind - Clint Holmes
07 10 08 Shambala - Three Dog Night
08 13 06 Yesterday Once More - Carpenters
09 09 13 Right Place Wrong Time - Dr. John
10 04 13 I'm Gonna Love You Just A Little More Baby -Barry White

[surreallife]

Jun 25, 2013 19:24:51 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Jun 25, 2013 19:13:51 GMT -5 surreallife said:

I think 18 weeks is closer to the truth then 13.

Now you're just being lazy.

Jun 25, 2013 16:14:46 GMT -5 surreallife said:

March 2nd:  HS - 280,373, TS - 79,383, Difference - 200,990;
March 9th:  HS - 272,558, TS - 74,583, Difference - 197,975;
March 16th: HS - 157,103, TS - 72,017, Difference - 85,086;
March 23rd: HS - 138,120, TS - 68,500, Difference - 69,620;
March 30th: HS - 84,961, TS - 66,908, Difference - 18,053.

The average of those 5 TS weeks is about 72,278; when it would have been #1 under normal methodology before the rule change. So saying that that is about the normal number of points for a #1 week: 13 weeks is 939,616 points, 18 weeks is 1,301,008 points. It turns out if you add up the points you have for Harlem Shake in those five weeks, you get....933,115 points! Which nearly matches the 13 week estimate, not the 18 week estimate.

72,278 is not the normal # of points for a #1 song, TS was an exception, thus the 18 weeks which equates to 52,000 per week.     For example, the current #1 song is less than 57,000 despite selling over 370,000 copies.  TS and HS are the only #1 songs this year to reach over 60,000 chart points a week for several weeks running.

[Au$tin]

Jun 26, 2013 6:51:09 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Jun 25, 2013 19:24:51 GMT -5 @xiivi said:

Now you're just being lazy.

The average of those 5 TS weeks is about 72,278; when it would have been #1 under normal methodology before the rule change. So saying that that is about the normal number of points for a #1 week: 13 weeks is 939,616 points, 18 weeks is 1,301,008 points. It turns out if you add up the points you have for Harlem Shake in those five weeks, you get....933,115 points! Which nearly matches the 13 week estimate, not the 18 week estimate.

72,278 is not the normal # of points for a #1 song, TS was an exception, thus the 18 weeks which equates to 52,000 per week.     For example, the current #1 song is less than 57,000 despite selling over 370,000 copies.  TS and HS are the only #1 songs this year to reach over 60,000 chart points a week for several weeks running.

But we're comparing it against "Thrift Shop," not your average run of the mill #1 song. Those are the only two songs we are talking about, thus, HS is being compared figuratively to TS. If we were comparing both songs to the average, both would have longer lives at number one. You can't just say "Oh, HS got 18 weeks at number, but TS doesn't gain anything by being huge either," because that's not how it works. You can't add on to one and not the other. If you're going to extend HS to 18 weeks at number one, you must also extend TS to a much longer time spent at number one AND number two from when it was behind TS, because that's only fair as all the weeks HS was huge, TS was huge as well. It's easier just to equate HS's numbers to match TS's numbers, thus giving us 13 weeks for HS comparatively to TS. Not your average #1 song. Thrift. Shop. ONLY

[velaxti]

Jun 25, 2013 19:13:51 GMT -5 surreallife said:

it is her biggest hit worldwide.

Really? I can't speak for everywhere I guess, but Love Story seemed waaaaaaaay bigger here, and will probably remain Taylor Swift's signature hit. I haven't heard anything about I Knew You Were Trouble since those goat videos, the song seems to have disappeared lol.

[Rocky]

Jun 26, 2013 8:29:38 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

But we're comparing it against "Thrift Shop," not your average run of the mill #1 song. Those are the only two songs we are talking about, thus, HS is being compared figuratively to TS. If we were comparing both songs to the average, both would have longer lives at number one. You can't just say "Oh, HS got 18 weeks at number, but TS doesn't gain anything by being huge either," because that's not how it works. You can't add on to one and not the other. If you're going to extend HS to 18 weeks at number one, you must also extend TS to a much longer time spent at number one AND number two from when it was behind TS, because that's only fair as all the weeks HS was huge, TS was huge as well. It's easier just to equate HS's numbers to match TS's numbers, thus giving us 13 weeks for HS comparatively to TS. Not your average #1 song. Thrift. Shop. ONLY

You lost your patience, but it's easy to understand why. I hope he'll get it now, he should this crystal-clear explanation.
We can start guessing how many weeks will "Blurred Lines" be at #1. This will be its third week, I think at least five will follow. The total number would be 8-9. Something that has yet to be released in a few weeks may knock it down. I mean a new single from a big name artist. "Get Lucky", "Radioactive" and other songs will all peak at #2 and #3.

[crystalphnx]

Hot Digital Songs Update:

Over on the Digital Songs chart, Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines," featuring T.I. and Pharrell, remains at No. 1, earning the largest sales week of 2013: 424,000 downloads. It's the biggest week for a song since the week ending Dec. 30, 2012. That week, two songs sold more: Taylor Swift's "I Knew You Were Trouble" (582,000) and Bruno Mars' "Locked Out of Heaven" (497,000). Both tunes profited from the redemption of digital music store gift cards received for the Christmas holiday on Dec. 25.

At No. 2 on the Digital Songs chart this week is Florida Georgia Line's "Cruise," rising one spot to No. 2 with 244,000 (up 19%). Imagine Dragons' "Radioactive" falls a rung to No. 3 with 231,000 (though it’s up by 11%).

Daft Punk's "Get Lucky," featuring Pharrell Williams, remains at No. 4 with 205,000 (up 5%). Bruno Mars' "Treasure" rallies 12-5 with 185,000 (up 71%) and its best sales week and chart rank yet. The song profits from its performance by Mars on NBC's "The Voice" on June 18.

The music video premiere of Miley Cyrus' "We Can't Stop" helps the song's sales surge by 74%. The cut rebounds 17-6 with 161,000 in its third week. It debuted with 214,000 at No. 3 and then fell to 93,000 last week.

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Can't Hold Us," featuring Ray Dalton, descends 5-7 with 151,000 (down 5%), and Fall Out Boy's "My Songs Know What You Did In the Dark (Light 'Em Up)" climbs 10-8 with 115,000 (up 2%). Blake Shelton's "Boys 'Round Here" falls 6-9 with 115,000 (down 15%), and Selena Gomez's "Come & Get It" dips 8-10 with 113,000 (down 12%).

Digital track sales this past week totaled 26.5 million downloads, up 3% compared with last week (25.6 million) and up 5% stacked next to the comparable week of 2012 (25.2 million). Year-to-date track sales are at 657 million, down 2% compared to the same total at this point last year (672.7 million).

www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/chart-alert/1568168/top-four-albums-all-debut-this-week-on-billboard-200

[Wrecking Ball]

Hoping for hot 100 top ten for Miley!

[HolidayGuy]

Aside from "Treasure," "We Can't Stop" could shoot to the top 10, depending on what the U.S. streams were last week.

[Au$tin]

I think top ten for "We Can't Stop" seems pretty probable this week.

[Rocky]

Do the upcoming Holidays affect the sales? If not what happened that they are on increase for a second straight week? Blurred Lines? Or the growth of the streming services customers stopped stealing the digital single buying demographics? Dunno...

[Au$tin]

If anything the 4th would decrease sales as less people are spending money on music and spending it on fireworks, ha ha. But, yeah, digital sales are going strong right now. Really nice to see, actually.

[SPRΞΞ]

Digital sales are up because summer has officially started and its the most exciting season of the year. People want the latest music to celebrate it with.

[Rocky]

Jun 26, 2013 12:03:01 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

Digital sales are up because summer has officially started and its the most exciting season of the year. People want the latest music to celebrate it with.

Thanks! That makes sense even for my habits. And last year this time there were high sales but the peak was earlier when STIUTK hit.

[crystalphnx]

Robin Thicke Still Atop Hot 100; Miley Cyrus, Bruno Mars Reach Top 10

Robin Thicke racks a third week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 with "Blurred Lines," featuring T.I. and Pharrell. Meanwhile, Miley Cyrus and Bruno Mars jump into the chart's top 10 with their latest singles.

"Lines" leads the Hot 100 as the chart's top Airplay Gainer for a fourth consecutive week, bounding 4-3 on the Radio Songs chart with 114 million all-format audience impressions (up 19%), according to Nielsen BDS. The track spends a fourth week at No. 1 on Digital Songs, gaining by 14% to 424,000 downloads sold, according to Nielsen SoundScan. As previously reported, the sum marks the greatest weekly total for a song this year.

"Lines" additionally pushes 5-3 on Streaming Songs with 5.4 million U.S. streams (up 45%), according to BDS. The song concurrently notches a third week at No. 1 on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and a sixth week atop the R&B Songs chart.

"Lines" strengthens its lock atop the Hot 100 with a hefty 20% jump in overall chart points, further distancing itself from Daft Punk's "Get Lucky," also featuring Pharrell (billed as featuring Pharrell Williams on the song), which remains at No. 2 (up 7%). The track tallies a fifth week at No. 1 on the subscription services-based On-Demand Songs chart (2.1 million, down 1%); slips 2-4 despite a 3% gain on Streaming Songs (4.9 million); holds at No. 4 on Digital Songs (205,000, up 5%); and rises 5-4 on Radio Songs (107 million, up 13%).

"Lucky" leads the Dance/Electronic Songs chart for a sixth week.

Imagine Dragons' "Radioactive" climbs 4-3 on the Hot 100, reaching the top three for the first time in its 43rd week. The cut, atop Hot Rock Songs for a 14th week, backtracks 2-3 on Digital Songs, although with an 11% increase to 231,000. It likewise retreats 3-5 on Streaming Songs but with a gain (4.4 million, up 16%) and continues to live up to its name on Radio Songs, where it pushes 10-6 (84 million, up 22%).

Florida Georgia Line's fellow steady climber "Cruise," featuring Nelly, also reaches a new highpoint (6-4) in its 38th frame on the Hot 100. ("Radioactive" has crossed from rock to pop and adult radio formats, while "Cruise" has navigated from country to pop and adult.) The song, at No. 1 on Hot Country Songs for a 17th week, returns to its peak to date on Digital Songs (3-2; 244,000, up 19%), holds at No. 10 on Streaming Songs (3.1 million, up 8%) and, despite a 9-10 setback, improves by 6% to 75 million on Radio Songs.

Two songs enter the Hot 100's top 10 this week, led by Miley Cyrus' "We Can't Stop," which blasts 27-5 as the top Streaming Gainer. (It just missed the region when it debuted at No. 11 two weeks ago.) The song's video premiere (June 19) spurs a 28-1 vault for it on Streaming Songs (9.6 million, up 471%), while it concurrently rebounds 17-6 (161,000, up 74%) on Digital Songs. "Stop" debuted with 214,000 (No. 3 on Digital Songs) and fell to 93,000 last week.

"Stop" becomes Cyrus' seventh Hot 100 top 10 (including one credited to "Hannah Montana") and first since her highest-charting hit, "Party in the U.S.A." spent three weeks at No. 2 in 2009. The new song is already her third-highest-charting title; "The Climb" rose to No. 4 earlier in 2009.

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' "Can't Hold Us," featuring Ray Dalton, descends 3-6 on the Hot 100 after ruling the ranking for five weeks. It tops Rap Songs for a 10th week.

Justin Timberlake's "Mirrors" drops 5-7 after peaking at No. 2 on the Hot 100. Still, the cut reigns on Radio Songs for a sixth week (154 million, down 3%). The command is his longest as a lead act, besting the five-week domination of "My Love," featuring T.I., in 2006. He's led longer (seven weeks) only on T.I.'s 2009 hit "Dead and Gone" (on which the acts' lead and featured credits were reversed from "My Love").

Bruno Mars nets the week's other new top 10 entry, as "Treasure," his 11th Hot 100 top 10, roars 11-8 with top Digital Gainer accolades. The track charges 12-5 on Digital Songs (185,000, up 71%), profiting from Mars' performance of it on NBC's "The Voice" (June 18). It elevates 27-19 on Streaming Songs (2.2 million, up 26%) and holds at No. 11 on Radio Songs (71 million, up 11%).

Rounding out the Hot 100's top tier, Selena Gomez's No. 6-peaking "Come & Get It" falls 8-9 and P!nk's former three-week No. 1 "Just Give Me a Reason," featuring fun.'s Nate Ruess, slides 7-10.

Check Billboard.com tomorrow (June 27), when all rankings, including the Hot 100 in its entirety and Digital Songs, Radio Songs, Streaming Songs and On-Demand Songs will be refreshed, as they are each Thursday.

www.billboard.com/articles/news/1568185/robin-thicke-still-atop-hot-100-miley-cyrus-bruno-mars-reach-top-10

[Au$tin]

Yay "Treasure" and "We Can't Stop"!!!

[crystalphnx]

Jun 26, 2013 13:25:37 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

"Stop" becomes Cyrus' seventh Hot 100 top 10 (including one credited to "Hannah Montana") and first since her highest-charting hit, "Party in the U.S.A." spent three weeks at No. 2 in 2009. The new song is already her third-highest-charting title; "The Climb" rose to No. 4 earlier in 2009.

silly Billboard, didn't "Can't Be Tamed" reach No. 8 in 2010?

[SPRΞΞ]

Get Lucky #1 on the Dance chart for a 6th week. That had got to be a record! Anybody have any idea?

[brady47]

Jun 26, 2013 8:39:56 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Jun 25, 2013 19:13:51 GMT -5 surreallife said:

it is her biggest hit worldwide.

Really? I can't speak for everywhere I guess, but Love Story seemed waaaaaaaay bigger here, and will probably remain Taylor Swift's signature hit. I haven't heard anything about I Knew You Were Trouble since those goat videos, the song seems to have disappeared lol.

Love Story was bigger in North America, Australia, and Sweden, but in every other territory, I'm pretty sure IKYWT beats it, especially in the UK and other parts of Europe.