Billboard Hot 100: 08/17/2013

[imbondz]

anyone think they'll be issues with Blurred Lines and Marvin Gaye's Got To Give It Up songwriter since they are almost identical?

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2013 14:18:59 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Psyched about Clarity and Love Somebody. Hope LS keeps climbing. Haven't heard Safe and Sound much but surprised at how fast it climbed. Who are Capital Cities? Just a new band?

Started on Alternative big pop crossover smash take over the world and die peacefully.

[imbondz]

ok streaming Safe & Sound right now. It could easily have been released in 1983. I like it, doesn't really sound like a top 10 hit tho. more like top 20. good timing.

[Au$tin]

Aug 7, 2013 14:17:39 GMT -5 Kris said:

Aug 7, 2013 13:54:07 GMT -5 surreallife said:

It is a shoo-in for the top selling digital download, both for the Billboard chart year and the calendar year.  I think it has a shot at the #1 HOT 100 song in BB's year-end issue, it just may run out of weeks (15 to go, this year has 53 weeks).

Blurred Lines has 16 weeks on the chart for this year, Thrift Shop has 38. It won't come close.

It'll be a lot closer than you think when you factor in just how huge "Blurred Lines" actually is. Yeah, it's only been on the chart for 16 weeks, but most of those weeks have showcased absolutely massive numbers. This situation is very much like 2011 with "Rolling in the Deep" and "Party Rock Anthem."

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Keeping in mind that Thrift Shop would have been #1 for 10? weeks had Harlem Shake not been around for that month-long domination at #1. So we would have been looking at domination discussion back then too. Although Blurred Lines has much higher numbers...

I'm definitely impressed that, even after nine weeks at #1, Blurred Lines is getting GG awards? Wow!

[Deleted]

If patterns continue, Blurred Lines will take the year (since the methodolgy is based on 'chart points from streaming, sales and airplay and not on chart positions)

On the next 'all-time' chart though, Thrift Shop will come in ahead of Blurred Lines, at this point

[The Upper Hand]

Aug 7, 2013 14:30:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:17:39 GMT -5 Kris said:

Blurred Lines has 16 weeks on the chart for this year, Thrift Shop has 38. It won't come close.

It'll be a lot closer than you think when you factor in just how huge "Blurred Lines" actually is. Yeah, it's only been on the chart for 16 weeks, but most of those weeks have showcased absolutely massive numbers. This situation is very much like 2011 with "Rolling in the Deep" and "Party Rock Anthem."

I thought the Billboard chart year was based on positions/chart runs (and not points) just as the recent list of The All-Time Top 100 Songs.

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2013 14:41:27 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:30:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

It'll be a lot closer than you think when you factor in just how huge "Blurred Lines" actually is. Yeah, it's only been on the chart for 16 weeks, but most of those weeks have showcased absolutely massive numbers. This situation is very much like 2011 with "Rolling in the Deep" and "Party Rock Anthem."

I thought the Billboard chart year was based on positions/chart runs (and not points) just as the recent list of The All-Time Top 100 Songs.

no

[Kris]

Aug 7, 2013 14:30:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:17:39 GMT -5 Kris said:

Blurred Lines has 16 weeks on the chart for this year, Thrift Shop has 38. It won't come close.

It'll be a lot closer than you think when you factor in just how huge "Blurred Lines" actually is. Yeah, it's only been on the chart for 16 weeks, but most of those weeks have showcased absolutely massive numbers. This situation is very much like 2011 with "Rolling in the Deep" and "Party Rock Anthem."

Party Rock Anthem debuted in the Feb 12 week while Rolling in the Deep debuted in the Dec 25 week which is why I'm sure RITD had #1, longer chart run. 

[Au$tin]

Aug 7, 2013 14:50:59 GMT -5 Kris said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:30:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

It'll be a lot closer than you think when you factor in just how huge "Blurred Lines" actually is. Yeah, it's only been on the chart for 16 weeks, but most of those weeks have showcased absolutely massive numbers. This situation is very much like 2011 with "Rolling in the Deep" and "Party Rock Anthem."

Party Rock Anthem debuted in the Feb 12 week while Rolling in the Deep debuted in the Dec 25 week which is why I'm sure RITD had #1, longer chart run. 

Yeah, that's what I mean. "Rolling in the Deep" was #1 in 2011, but "Party Rock Anthem" was #2. Both songs took forever to catch on, but both ended up being extremely massive, but in the end, "Party Rock Anthem" almost beat out "Rolling in the Deep." I'm fairly confident that had streaming been a factor back then like it is now, "Party Rock Anthem" would have been number one. This time around, I think we're going to see the same thing. "Thrift Shop" will end up at number one, but "Blurred Lines" will be a very solid #2, only being a few points behind "Thrift Shop." (Except note here that I think "Thrift Shop" will come out on top in streaming, whereas in the other scenario "Party Rock Anthem" probably would have. "Thrift" being "Rolling" and "Party" being "Blurred," that would be a key difference.)

What I'm anxious to know, though, is "Harlem Shake"'s position. Will it be top 20? Top 10? Top 5? Top 3? Beat out "Blurred Lines"? We know it won't defeat "Thrift Shop" thanks to a post Xiivi made. And unless "Blurred Lines" crashes and burns soon, "Harlem Shake" shouldn't be able to defeat it either.

[Kris]

Harlem Shake reminds me of Born This Way's chart run, however I think HS will be much lower in the year end due to such a short chart run.

[Rocky]

Aug 7, 2013 14:57:46 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:50:59 GMT -5 Kris said:

What I'm anxious to know, though, is "Harlem Shake"'s position. Will it be top 20? Top 10? Top 5? Top 3? Beat out "Blurred Lines"?

In a thread I don't remember some posters including Xiivi discussed it for a couple of pages. They would all agree that "Thrift Shop" beats out "Harlem Shake" because of the former's longevity, but should still be top 5 if the streaming is included.

[velaxti]

Yeah, it's difficult to predict Harlem Shake. Although from memory, its first two weeks at #1 it was 350% of Thrift Shop, and the second two weeks it was about 200% I think, so its first 4 weeks at #1 point-wise was about 11 weeks of Thrift Shop #1s, which is a lot obviously, but its point outside of those weeks probably aren't too much.

Aug 7, 2013 15:02:15 GMT -5 Kris said:

Harlem Shake reminds me of Born This Way's chart run, however I think HS will be much lower in the year end due to such a short chart run.

Born This Way got about #16 or #18 in the year-end chart I think, so I think Harlem Shake will be higher than that, since its points when it was #1 were enormous.

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2013 15:02:15 GMT -5 Kris said:

Harlem Shake reminds me of Born This Way's chart run, however I think HS will be much lower in the year end due to such a short chart run.

The only releance 'chart runs' have on the year end charts is that they stop counting sales, streaming and airplay points if it is not sitting on the Hot 100


Harlem Shake, could in theory (it won't in this case) be #1 for the year based on its first two weeks alone

[The Upper Hand]

Aug 7, 2013 14:46:55 GMT -5 @2m said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:41:27 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

I thought the Billboard chart year was based on positions/chart runs (and not points) just as the recent list of The All-Time Top 100 Songs.

no

So are both lists based on points (I mean the same #1 position could correspond to 100 or 1000 points depending on the song's performance during that specific week)?

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2013 15:11:06 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:46:55 GMT -5 @2m said:

no

So are both lists based on points (I mean the same #1 position could correspond to 100 or 1000 points depending on the song's performance during that specific week)?

In a sense, I suppose but not the same point system. All time lists are based on weighted chart runs. The yearly charts are based on points accumulated in a week from sales, airplay & streaming. Obviously #1 will have more points than #2, etc. but not all #1's get the same number of points.

The first week of Harlem Shake for instance, would have more points tahn the last week of Harlem Shake

[surreallife]

Aug 7, 2013 15:11:06 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Aug 7, 2013 14:46:55 GMT -5 @2m said:

no

So are both lists based on points (I mean the same #1 position could correspond to 100 or 1000 points depending on the song's performance during that specific week)?

The Billboard year-end issue counts actual chart points that a song accumulates based on sales, airplay and streaming.  So one week a #1 song could have 70,000 chart points and the next week 60,000.

Billboard uses the fixed point method for its' specialized countdowns such as the top 100 songs of the HOT 100's first 55 years.  Which explains why "You Were Meant For Me" by Jewel beat out "Candle In The WInd 1997" on the 55 year anniversary countdown, but finished at #2 on the 1997 year-end countdown.  Confusing I know.

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2013 15:19:32 GMT -5 surreallife said:

Aug 7, 2013 15:11:06 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

So are both lists based on points (I mean the same #1 position could correspond to 100 or 1000 points depending on the song's performance during that specific week)?

The Billboard year-end issue counts actual chart points that a song accumulates based on sales, airplay and streaming.  So one week a #1 song could have 70,000 chart points and the next week 60,000.

Billboard uses the fixed point method for its' specialized countdowns such as the top 100 songs of the HOT 100's first 55 years.  Which explains why "You Were Meant For Me" by Jewel beat out "Candle In The WInd 1997" on the 55 year anniversary countdown, but finished at #2 on the 1997 year-end countdown.  Confusing I know.

Yes, and the reason is that since methods for calculating points change so frequently, they can't (or won't) go deeper than one year on the more accurate point system that they use in the weekly charts

[surreallife]

"Blurred Lines" probably had 80,000+ more points then "Thrift Shop" this week. Going forward if it maintains a 60,000+ point differential, it could very well end up #1 on the year-end chart. Ironically, the extra week in November may be the deciding factor.

The race between "Rolling In The Deep" and "Party Rock Anthem" was probably close in 2011, but even at its' peak "Party Rock Anthem" did not dominate like "Blurred Lines" is now. A 100%+ lead over the #2 song in its' 9th week at #1 is a pretty amazing feat.

[Au$tin]

Aug 7, 2013 15:27:58 GMT -5 surreallife said:

A 100%+ lead over the #2 song in its' 9th week at #1 is a pretty amazing feat.

To be fair, I think "Thrift Shop" had an excellent lead over #3 on what would've been its 9th week at #1 ("When I Was Your Man") if it weren't for "Harlem Shake."

[markb]

Anna Kendrick’s “Cups” has yet to have its fill, as it continues to move up the Hot 100, reaching a new peak (8-6). The song concurrently rises into the to 10 of Hot 100 Airplay (11-9, up 11%) and the Mainstream Top 40 chart (11-10), while returning to the top 10 on Streaming Songs at a new peak (11-7, 2.9 million plays). Yesssss! Go Anna!! :) Top 5 Next Week, Hope So!!!

[Libra]

Aug 7, 2013 13:55:53 GMT -5 Rocky said:

I love the upward movement of "Love Somebody", "Clarity" and "Safe and Sound", but the situation of "Same Love" makes me sad. It's selling less than 100k, it has no chance to enter the top ten if its sales won't pick up.

Aug 7, 2013 13:55:28 GMT -5 RadioBeatz said:

"Same Love" :( It needs more support from radio.

Nooo, it needs more love from digital retail customers, more downloads. It got more than enough radio support despite the fear that the message will hurt it.

Since finding out that they released it as a single, I've wondered if this would be a real problem for it. I didn't realize this until recently, but the song is a year old by now, so those who both really wanted it and could get it would have done so by now, which is especially true given the song itself. (I say that to distinguish it from other later-on singles that would otherwise theoretically be in a similar position of people buying the song sooner rather than later.) Therefore, much of the audience that would really want the song won't buy it now - because already bought it earlier.

[Zeebz]

Go "Clarity", "Safe And Sound", and "Love Somebody"! I am glad to see new songs breaking into the top ten, and "Cruise" finally falling out. I really am surprised that "Same Love" missed it though.

[hitseeker.]

Clarity Top10 and Blurred Lines breaking airplay records!

[ListenToItTwice]

Aug 7, 2013 13:19:26 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

Aug 7, 2013 13:16:35 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

at least maroon 5 has 4 straight top tens

5, actually. ;_;

But four from one album. Among albums released in 2012 or 2013, only Believe has also done that.

[#LisaRinna]

USA Today reported a 223 million peak for We Belong Together in 2005 on the July 16 issue of Billboard. I emailed Silvio Pietroluongo about it.

[crystalphnx]

Aug 7, 2013 16:18:01 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

Aug 7, 2013 13:19:26 GMT -5 Lozzy said:

5, actually. ;_;

But four from one album. Among albums released in 2012 or 2013, only Believe has also done that.

Justin's Believe? didn't that only have 3: "Boyfriend" (No. 2), "As Long As You Love Me" (No. 6), and "Beauty And A Beat" (No. 5)?

Taylor's Red has also spawned 4 Top 10 hits: "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" (No. 1), "Begin Again" (No. 7), "I Knew You Were Trouble." (No. 2), and "Red" (No. 6).

[Au$tin]

Aug 7, 2013 16:39:16 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

Aug 7, 2013 16:18:01 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

But four from one album. Among albums released in 2012 or 2013, only Believe has also done that.

Justin's Believe? didn't that only have 3: "Boyfriend" (No. 2), "As Long As You Love Me" (No. 6), and "Beauty And A Beat" (No. 5)?

Taylor's Red has also spawned 4 Top 10 hits: "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" (No. 1), "Begin Again" (No. 7), "I Knew You Were Trouble." (No. 2), and "Red" (No. 6).

For Believe, there's "All Around the World" at #7, I believe.

[Deleted]

Aug 7, 2013 16:48:52 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 7, 2013 16:39:16 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

Justin's Believe? didn't that only have 3: "Boyfriend" (No. 2), "As Long As You Love Me" (No. 6), and "Beauty And A Beat" (No. 5)?

Taylor's Red has also spawned 4 Top 10 hits: "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" (No. 1), "Begin Again" (No. 7), "I Knew You Were Trouble." (No. 2), and "Red" (No. 6).

For Believe, there's "All Around the World" at #7, I believe.

It peaked at #22.

[jebsib]

Recent Pew Research puts those calling themselves 'Conservative' in the U.S. at 39%, 'Liberal' only 23%;
Putting aside homophobia, "Same Love" calls out - and thus pisses off - a very big portion of the populace.

Not a good starting point for a huge top 10 hit.