dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Aug 28, 2013 10:12:31 GMT -5
I think Katy needed a bigger gap than 140k to prevent a 12th week. It should still be close, but she'll probably need to wait a week.
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Pikachu.
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Post by Pikachu. on Aug 28, 2013 10:17:33 GMT -5
Why Capitol why?  At least next week is a lock, I think. |
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Wrecking Ball
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Post by Wrecking Ball on Aug 28, 2013 10:22:02 GMT -5
I am guessing Eminem will have be number 1 next week??
Also are there sales numbers for Wrecking Ball?
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Aug 28, 2013 10:24:35 GMT -5
Em needs to sell 1million copies.
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colson
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Post by colson on Aug 28, 2013 10:25:41 GMT -5
Or at least 800k.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 10:26:04 GMT -5
Roar = 392,000/12 (32667) + 78,000,000/7500 (10405) = 43072 BL = 251,000/12 (20917) + 225,000,000/7500 (30023) = 50939 She'd need a 3-4 million streaming lead to get it.  If Katy gains 2 million a day and Blurred Lines loses 2 million a day, then next week their airplay points will only be 3000 closer. She'd need a bigger digital lead to get it, which will probably happen, but how big will it be? Robin is currently 0.45 of Roar, around 0.5 with added versions. |
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Pikachu.
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Post by Pikachu. on Aug 28, 2013 10:28:05 GMT -5
Katy is already slowly regaining the #1 spot on iTunes so I doubt Eminem will sell that much more than her this week.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Aug 28, 2013 10:28:26 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not sure Katy even caught BL in streaming this week.
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Aug 28, 2013 10:29:09 GMT -5
If Katy wasn't involved, I'd say it would've gotten a free ride until Britney came, which would've been 15 or 16, or possibly even 17. I actually think we're heading into a period with tons of competition which will be a breath of fresh air after "Blurred Lines" killed everyone else. "Roar" is at the front line for the #1 battle to come, but I think all of these stand a chance within the next two months: Royals Summertime Sadness Wake Me Up! Bezerk Britney's lead single Hold On, We're Going Home |
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colson
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Post by colson on Aug 28, 2013 10:30:45 GMT -5
Katy is already slowly regaining the #1 spot on iTunes so I doubt Eminem will sell that much more than her this week. Berzerk has multiple versions charting. That's why it 'appears' that the song is dropping when it may indeed might not be. |
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Post by josh on Aug 28, 2013 10:31:44 GMT -5
Katy is already slowly regaining the #1 spot on iTunes so I doubt Eminem will sell that much more than her this week. Plus Eminem only got her down to ~.85 (maybe ~.82 with his 2nd version), and he also missed out on Monday sales. I think Katy will sell more than him. |
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colson
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Post by colson on Aug 28, 2013 10:32:11 GMT -5
If Katy wasn't involved, I'd say it would've gotten a free ride until Britney came, which would've been 15 or 16, or possibly even 17. I actually think we're heading into a period with tons of competition which will be a breath of fresh air after "Blurred Lines" killed everyone else. "Roar" is at the front line for the #1 battle to come, but I think all of these stand a chance within the next two months: Royals Summertime Sadness Wake Me Up! Bezerk Britney's lead single Hold On, We're Going Home Why is Britney included? Is that based on assumption or some stats that we don't see yet that the others already have? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 10:32:55 GMT -5
Katy is already slowly regaining the #1 spot on iTunes so I doubt Eminem will sell that much more than her this week. Berzerk has multiple versions charting. That's why it 'appears' that the song is dropping when it may indeed might not be. Only one of them is in the top 100 though, at #87. Even with the others, I don't think Katy went below 0.8 combined. It's pretty obvious that Eminem has peaked, and probably will fall below Katy in 2-3 days. |
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 28, 2013 10:34:55 GMT -5
Em needs to sell 1million copies. He already peaked and Katy is coming back. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 10:35:32 GMT -5
I actually think we're heading into a period with tons of competition which will be a breath of fresh air after "Blurred Lines" killed everyone else. "Roar" is at the front line for the #1 battle to come, but I think all of these stand a chance within the next two months: Royals Summertime Sadness Wake Me Up! Bezerk Britney's lead single Hold On, We're Going Home Why is Britney included? Is that based on assumption or some stats that we don't see yet that the others already have? Her lead single will probably debut with a lot of airplay again, HIAM got 50 million without even having a deal. And she broke first week female record with both of her last 2 lead singles. |
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Pikachu.
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Post by Pikachu. on Aug 28, 2013 10:36:19 GMT -5
Katy is already slowly regaining the #1 spot on iTunes so I doubt Eminem will sell that much more than her this week. Berzerk has multiple versions charting. That's why it 'appears' that the song is dropping when it may indeed might not be. There is another version of Roar charting near the top 100 rn too iirc. |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Aug 28, 2013 10:36:35 GMT -5
I actually think we're heading into a period with tons of competition which will be a breath of fresh air after "Blurred Lines" killed everyone else. "Roar" is at the front line for the #1 battle to come, but I think all of these stand a chance within the next two months: Royals Summertime Sadness Wake Me Up! Bezerk Britney's lead single Hold On, We're Going Home Why is Britney included? Is that based on assumption or some stats that we don't see yet that the others already have? Britney Spears' lead singles have always sold incredibly well in the digital age. Gimme More - I don't remember the exact number, but even with it being completely front-loaded, it landed at #3 on the Hot 100 Womanizer - #1 on the Hot 100, don't recall the sales #s, though Hold It Against Me - #1 on the Hot 100, sold well over 400k its first week Femme Fatale was a great era for Britney, and since then she's been featured on The X Factor and had a smash hit with will.i.am. She even turned "Ew La La" into a top 20 pop hit. There's no doubt in my mind that whatever her lead single is will sell upwards of 500k its first week and have HUGE airplay and streaming numbers as well. While "Roar" was unsuccessful in dethroning "Blurred Lines" with its first week of sales and streaming, we must remember that she did come close to it and "Blurred Lines" was undeniably more massive than whatever Britney's going to be up against in a few weeks. She's not guaranteed #1 at all, but it is possible that she could get there. Then of course, if the song has staying power, it could be a threat to the #1 position later on in its life. |
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Post by Rocky on Aug 28, 2013 10:36:59 GMT -5
Berzerk has multiple versions charting. That's why it 'appears' that the song is dropping when it may indeed might not be. Only one of them is in the top 100 though, at #87. Even with the others, I don't think Katy went below 0.8 combined. It's pretty obvious that Eminem has peaked, and probably will fall below Katy in 2-3 days. I say less than 2-3 days. She'll probably go up in sales - from 290k to around 300-310k - so Eminem won't sell above 250k unless something unexpected happens. |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Aug 28, 2013 10:37:40 GMT -5
It's ridiculous to say if so and so didn't release a song that BL would stay at #1 for 16+ weeks. That's like saying if I Gotta Feeling was released 2 or 3 weeks before it was that it would have been at #1 for 16 or 17 weeks. In music, there are always extenuating circumstances that can effect any huge hits chart run at the top. Daamn, I was simply making a general point :#. Your points aren't invalid and obviously it always comes down to timing- where a song charts, sells etc..simple as that. Most people/ casual chart followers (non Pulse members) 'will' look at a chart position and think if it peaked at #11 or #6 etc..then the song wasn't a quality enough song go to 10 or top 5 etc.. at w/out realizing there are endless other factors (esp. w/ the chart formula in the States). Like someone posted last week, under the old chart formula (pre 2013) Katy would've been #1 already and Robin would've only had 10 weeks at #1 vs, 11 ( so he actually benefited from the change due to the extra streaming points). It's what it is now but if it was even just a year ago, between Katy (and now Eminem), he prob. would've been flip flopping between #1 and #2 vs. possibly 12 consecutive weeks. Plus, w/ Britney coming up in about 3 weeks- all these factors wouldve caused BL to prob. not end w/ as many weeks at #1 as it did. Although I dont care for the new chart formula, Robins was an exception - due to his epic airplay and popularity of the song (100% the song of the summer). I feel he def. deserved the success and weeks at #1 that he got. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 10:38:44 GMT -5
Only one of them is in the top 100 though, at #87. Even with the others, I don't think Katy went below 0.8 combined. It's pretty obvious that Eminem has peaked, and probably will fall below Katy in 2-3 days. I say less than 2-3 days. She'll probably go up in sales - from 290k to around 300-310k - so Eminem won't sell above 250k unless something unexpected happens. 290? She sold 390 this week ;) I think Katy will get 420k sales this week and Eminem will get 350k. |
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 28, 2013 10:38:54 GMT -5
Katy sold 392k this week tho.
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Post by josh on Aug 28, 2013 10:40:17 GMT -5
Why is Britney included? Is that based on assumption or some stats that we don't see yet that the others already have? Britney Spears' lead singles have always sold incredibly well in the digital age. Gimme More - I don't remember the exact number, but even with it being completely front-loaded, it landed at #3 on the Hot 100 Womanizer - #1 on the Hot 100, don't recall the sales #s, though Hold It Against Me - #1 on the Hot 100, sold well over 400k its first week Femme Fatale was a great era for Britney, and since then she's been featured on The X Factor and had a smash hit with will.i.am. She even turned "Ew La La" into a top 20 pop hit. There's no doubt in my mind that whatever her lead single is will sell upwards of 500k its first week and have HUGE airplay and streaming numbers as well. While "Roar" was unsuccessful in dethroning "Blurred Lines" with its first week of sales and streaming, we must remember that she did come close to it and "Blurred Lines" was undeniably more massive than whatever Britney's going to be up against in a few weeks. She's not guaranteed #1 at all, but it is possible that she could get there. Then of course, if the song has staying power, it could be a threat to the #1 position later on in its life. No doubt in your mind she will sell 500k+? I think you're being way too optimistic here. Sure it's possible but to say she DEFINITELY will... Especially after the miserable first week and overall sales for "Ooh La La" ... Sure it's only a soundtrack single but still. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 10:42:41 GMT -5
Britney Spears' lead singles have always sold incredibly well in the digital age. Gimme More - I don't remember the exact number, but even with it being completely front-loaded, it landed at #3 on the Hot 100 Womanizer - #1 on the Hot 100, don't recall the sales #s, though Hold It Against Me - #1 on the Hot 100, sold well over 400k its first week Femme Fatale was a great era for Britney, and since then she's been featured on The X Factor and had a smash hit with will.i.am. She even turned "Ew La La" into a top 20 pop hit. There's no doubt in my mind that whatever her lead single is will sell upwards of 500k its first week and have HUGE airplay and streaming numbers as well. While "Roar" was unsuccessful in dethroning "Blurred Lines" with its first week of sales and streaming, we must remember that she did come close to it and "Blurred Lines" was undeniably more massive than whatever Britney's going to be up against in a few weeks. She's not guaranteed #1 at all, but it is possible that she could get there. Then of course, if the song has staying power, it could be a threat to the #1 position later on in its life. No doubt in your mind she will sell 500k+? I think you're being way too optimistic here. Sure it's possible but to say she DEFINITELY will... Especially after the miserable first week and overall sales for "Ooh La La" ... Sure it's only a soundtrack single but still. Hold It Against Me came after Radar which was an even bigger flop, so... I think she'll sell at least 350k, with 500k+ being a possibility. Let's not take anything for granted, remember that Gaga single that everyone thought would debut with 500k+ then only got 217k? |
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SPRΞΞ
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Post by SPRΞΞ on Aug 28, 2013 10:44:33 GMT -5
Curious to see the streaming numbers for this week between BL and Roar.
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Aug 28, 2013 10:45:56 GMT -5
"Radar" wasn't a brand-new single, though, unlike "Ohh La La," so not the best comparison.
Nonetheless, Spears' first single undoubtedly will see big sales activity in the first week.
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Pikachu.
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Post by Pikachu. on Aug 28, 2013 10:48:54 GMT -5
 Have faith in G odney. |
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jayhawk1117
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 28, 2013 10:50:37 GMT -5
Im guessing 3 top ten entries
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cesarams
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Post by cesarams on Aug 28, 2013 11:00:53 GMT -5
No doubt in your mind she will sell 500k+? I think you're being way too optimistic here. Sure it's possible but to say she DEFINITELY will... Especially after the miserable first week and overall sales for "Ooh La La" ... Sure it's only a soundtrack single but still. Hold It Against Me came after Radar which was an even bigger flop, so... I think she'll sell at least 350k, with 500k+ being a possibility. Let's not take anything for granted, remember that Gaga single that everyone thought would debut with 500k+ then only got 217k? Hold It Against Me came after 3 which was a #1 hit too. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2013 11:03:10 GMT -5
Oh, right. Well, you could say the lead single will be coming off of Scream & Shout this time. Ooh La La wasn't a real single, it was just a soundtrack song for a kids album. The real last single, Scream & Shout was even bigger than 3 (despite not going #1).
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Post by Rocky on Aug 28, 2013 11:04:16 GMT -5
I say less than 2-3 days. She'll probably go up in sales - from 290k to around 300-310k - so Eminem won't sell above 250k unless something unexpected happens. 290? She sold 390 this week ;) I think Katy will get 420k sales this week and Eminem will get 350k. Oh lol really. I was shocked how is she that low.  Yep, so a bit over 400k is your number and still around 300k for Em. |
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