SPRΞΞ
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2009
Posts: 22,299
|
Post by SPRΞΞ on Sept 13, 2013 9:37:31 GMT -5
is this officially Katy's biggest Mediabase hit already?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 10:05:37 GMT -5
is this officially Katy's biggest Mediabase hit already? Yes, technically her previous highest was around 151 million with E.T. if I'm not mistaken. It would need around 185 million to account for inflation though. |
|
Az Paynter
Diamond Member
On Dsico's Block List™
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 114,474
|
Post by Az Paynter on Sept 13, 2013 10:08:31 GMT -5
At the rate it's going on all four of its major formats, then I think 185 mill. is a certainty for 'Roar'.
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 10:14:35 GMT -5
So if Wrecking Ball does pull out 100 million views, how much of it will be from the US? Is there anyway to tell? Does 1/4th seem reasonable because that's still like 25 million. I feel like it could be even higher from the us because of all the controversy.
Also what does she need to do in streaming to top Katy?
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 11:55:20 GMT -5
Bill Werde:
Billboard.com story within next hours. RT @waitwhatever: @bwerde we're all still waiting for initial projections for Wrecking Ball
|
|
icefire9
2x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,071
|
Post by icefire9 on Sept 13, 2013 12:39:27 GMT -5
Bill Werde:
It'll chart very high this week. Id be surprised by 1 tho. RT @ josh_dh: @bwerde Wrecking Ball: What are Miley's chances to get 1st US #1?
:o
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 12:47:39 GMT -5
Bill Werde: It'll chart very high this week. Id be surprised by 1 tho. RT @ josh_dh: @bwerde Wrecking Ball: What are Miley's chances to get 1st US #1? :o Would they have the streaming numbers at this point?? |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 13, 2013 12:48:35 GMT -5
^The article is going to be based on an early digital sales estimate.
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 12:54:56 GMT -5
^The article is going to be based on an early digital sales estimate. I know that but when he's saying he'd be surprised wih #1, is that just based off sales? So does billboard have early streaming numbers or early sales only? I don't see how it isn't a close competition because of Miley's streaming. |
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 13, 2013 13:00:39 GMT -5
^Because everyone on Twitter keeps asking him if Miley is going to be #1 next week.
|
|
imbondz
2x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2006
Posts: 2,609
|
Post by imbondz on Sept 13, 2013 13:39:24 GMT -5
Miley Cyrus is oddly polarizing. It'd be crazy if she gets #1 next week. That's why it's almost impossible to predict the charts, and I was sure that Blurred Lines was going to challenge One Sweet Day a few weeks ago. lol.
|
|
Lockheart
4x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2010
Posts: 4,273
|
Post by Lockheart on Sept 13, 2013 14:49:55 GMT -5
^The article is going to be based on an early digital sales estimate. I know that but when he's saying he'd be surprised wih #1, is that just based off sales? So does billboard have early streaming numbers or early sales only? I don't see how it isn't a close competition because of Miley's streaming. That's a go to reply. They're not going to say it is likely to top this early with little information. |
|
HolidayGuy
Diamond Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 33,918
|
Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 13, 2013 15:01:18 GMT -5
Billboard has mentioned building streaming chart that has some early info, when trying to gauge what will happen with the next week's charts.
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 13, 2013 15:05:27 GMT -5
And I would assume they have access to BDS...
|
|
icefire9
2x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2011
Posts: 2,071
|
Post by icefire9 on Sept 13, 2013 15:09:26 GMT -5
So the question is, what do they know that we don't? Bill Werde mentioned in a tweet earlier something about fake Youtube views, but how much could that actually account for?
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 15:24:50 GMT -5
So the question is, what do they know that we don't? Bill Werde mentioned in a tweet earlier something about fake Youtube views, but how much could that actually account for? I thought he said vevo and YouTube weed out the fake views themselves. Vevo definitely does. She has 75 million views and was practically selling double Katy. There's no way a large portion were spam/fake |
|
ss8
Gold Member
Dupe
Joined: August 2013
Posts: 851
|
Post by ss8 on Sept 13, 2013 15:33:54 GMT -5
'again'...they/Billboard are pulling the same shady, c*ck teasing-esque stuff they did that 2nd week Roar was out and people were waiting a *little extra longer* than usual lol to see if Roar would jump to #1 (which it didnt). Dont get that by this late in the day/ week theres been NO semi concrete sales estimates etc..for Wrecking Ball and its chances at #1 or even #2. So 'no one' out there by now has an idea? please. lol :#
|
|
|
|
Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 13, 2013 17:02:42 GMT -5
www.billboard.com/articles/news/5695422/miley-cyrus-headed-for-first-hot-100-no-1-with-wrecking-ballMiley Cyrus Headed for First Hot 100 No. 1 With 'Wrecking Ball' By Gary Trust, New York | September 13, 2013 5:47 PM EDTWith expected monster streaming numbers for its video, the song looks likely to swing its way to the top, marking Cyrus' first Hot 100 leader It looks like Miley Cyrus' "Wrecking Ball" is about to smash its way to the top of the Billboard Hot 100. Thanks to expected enormous streaming totals for the song's video, early indications are that it should dethrone Katy Perry's "Roar," which leads the list for a second week this week. If "Ball" blasts to the summit, Cyrus would collect her first Hot 100 No. 1. She's reached No. 2 with 2009's "Party in the U.S.A." and her previous single, "We Can't Stop." PROJECTING STREAMING According to data provided by YouTube, "Ball" boasts 15.5 million U.S. YouTube views over its first two days since the clip premiered on Monday (Sept. 9). Projected over seven days, the streams for the song and video could total a whopping 30 to 45 million in the U.S., a figure that would count toward next week's Hot 100. If numbers develop as projected, "Roar" would register about half or less of that streaming sum. This week, "Roar" claimed the Hot 100's top Streaming Gainer award, rising 3-1 on the Streaming Songs chart with a 122% increase to 12 million U.S. streams, up 33%, according to Nielsen BDS. The song's video premiered on Sept. 5. "Ball" rose 27-21 on Streaming Songs this week with 2.2 million U.S. streams, a total tallied from user-generated videos featuring the song's audio (prior to the release of the song's official clip) and activity on certain audio services that contribute to the chart. PROJECTING SALES According to industry sources, "Ball" could sell more than 400,000 downloads for the tracking week ending Sunday (Sept. 15). It sold 116,000 in the Nielsen SoundScan week ending Sept. 8. "Roar" is in line to sell 340,000-360,000. This week, it leads Digital Songs (for a fourth consecutive week) with 373,000, according to SoundScan. PROJECTING AIRPLAY While "Ball" looks to sport comfortable leads in streaming and sales, "Roar" will register significantly more radio action in the Sept. 11-17 BDS tracking week, data which forms the airplay component for the Hot 100; sales and streaming are the chart's other two metrics. Through two days of BDS building data, "Roar" shows 42 million in all-format audience, second only to Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines" (featuring T.I. and Pharrell), which stands at 54 million. Naked Ambition: 19 Bare-It-All Music Videos (NSFW) "Ball" ranks just outside the 100 most-played songs in that span, with 4.5 million. Notably, RCA Records just began promoting it to radio this week; Capitol has been working "Roar" to radio since mid-August. NEXT WEEK'S HOT 100 What do all these numbers mean for next week's Hot 100? Presently, it seems that Cyrus will score her first No. 1 on the ranking. Combining the sales projections above and taking building BDS data for airplay and streaming and projecting chart points over a full week, "Ball" looks ready to swing its way to a fairly sizable lead over "Roar" and take over atop next week's chart. Check Billboard.com on Wednesday (Sept. 18) for all the songs' official figures and to find out who claims the Hot 100's coveted crown. The refreshed Hot 100 will appear in full on Billboard.com next Thursday (Sept. 19) and in next week's issue of Billboard magazine.
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 17:15:12 GMT -5
I really hope she does get her number 1, this is her most deserving song!
I wonder why Bill tweeted what he did. hmmm
|
|
RadioBeatz
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2013
Posts: 1,212
|
Post by RadioBeatz on Sept 13, 2013 17:29:00 GMT -5
Congrats to Miley! :) PITUSA and WCS missed the #1 spot due to monster hits blocking them, third time's the charm.  |
|
jayhawk1117
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2013
Posts: 2,758 
|
Post by jayhawk1117 on Sept 13, 2013 17:41:01 GMT -5
Love how Billboad is only saying 400k when we all know it will be closer 500k then 400k
|
|
Wrecking Ball
4x Platinum Member
Joined: February 2009
Posts: 4,231
|
Post by Wrecking Ball on Sept 13, 2013 17:42:19 GMT -5
1/2 it's streaming could be from the USA??? 15 million in the first 2 days??? Streaming QUEEN:
According to data provided by YouTube, "Ball" boasts 15.5 million U.S. YouTube views over its first two days since the clip premiered on Monday (Sept. 9). Projected over seven days, the streams for the song and video could total a whopping 30 to 45 million in the U.S., a figure that would count toward next week's Hot 100.
|
|
slamina
2x Platinum Member
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 2,323
|
Post by slamina on Sept 13, 2013 19:15:20 GMT -5
Interesting...if WB does make it, Miley can thank the incorporation of YT streams which is indubitably the critical factor here. Using the old sales/airplay formula of the past "Roar" would have still taken it. It seems as though WB would have a lock only on the one week due to the surge of video streams following its debut. The following week streams will drop as will the sales in response. If it manages to be a radio hit, then it may have a chance again in the future.
|
|
Rodze
2x Platinum Member
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 2,546
|
Post by Rodze on Sept 13, 2013 19:32:38 GMT -5
Her stans were sure it would stay on top for much longer. Well yeah, but could anyone have predicted that Wrecking Ball would have blown up so suddenly like this? It seems "Roar" is guaranteed another week at no. 1. I would say another two or three weeks, but you never know what kind of crazy might happen in the internet next week... ;) It's time you accept our new Youtube overlord. As for Miley finally getting her no. 1, if it happens, at least it wasn't with that POS "We Can't Stop". |
|
Kris
2x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2013
Posts: 2,222
|
Post by Kris on Sept 13, 2013 20:49:52 GMT -5
I really liked Miles better when he was a girl. Also if he hadn't of been naked in the video it would probably get far less views.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2013 20:51:09 GMT -5
^ Stale Miley joke dispenser
|
|
Kris
2x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2013
Posts: 2,222
|
Post by Kris on Sept 13, 2013 20:55:13 GMT -5
^ Stale Miley joke dispenser Stale joke would of been that after all the long list of singles, "the Climb" to number one is approaching and she'll soon be Partying in the USA. |
|
TylerG11
Charting
Joined: August 2013
Posts: 195
|
Post by TylerG11 on Sept 13, 2013 21:09:27 GMT -5
^ Stale Miley joke dispenser Stale joke would of been that after all the long list of singles, "the Climb" to number one is approaching and she'll soon be Partying in the USA. It's only because we can't stop watching the video. |
|
HolidayGuy
Diamond Member
Joined: December 2003
Posts: 33,918
|
Post by HolidayGuy on Sept 13, 2013 21:19:51 GMT -5
With such big streaming and sales, she's having the best of both worlds.
By the way- with her new "bad-girl" persona, how long before Destiny turns that track into a bisexual anthem?
|
|
imbondz
2x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2006
Posts: 2,609
|
Post by imbondz on Sept 13, 2013 22:01:18 GMT -5
^ Stale Miley joke dispenser Stale joke would of been that after all the long list of singles, "the Climb" to number one is approaching and she'll soon be Partying in the USA. lol |
|
