Billboard Hot 100 : 9/28/2013

[cesarams]

Sept 13, 2013 10:05:37 GMT -5 Codex said:

Sept 13, 2013 9:37:31 GMT -5 SPRΞΞ said:

is this officially Katy's biggest Mediabase hit already?

Yes, technically her previous highest was around 151 million with E.T. if I'm not mistaken.

It would need around 185 million to account for inflation though.

Actually Wide Awake peaked at 163 million too so Roar tied it today.

[Deleted]

Ah thank you, my source was missing Wide Awake.

Sept 13, 2013 19:15:20 GMT -5 slamina said:

Interesting...if WB does make it, Miley can thank the incorporation of YT streams which is indubitably the critical factor here. Using the old sales/airplay formula of the past "Roar" would have still taken it. It seems as though WB would have a lock only on the one week due to the surge of video streams following its debut. The following week streams will drop as will the sales in response. If it manages to be a radio hit, then it may have a chance again in the future.

Since Katy is going to sell around 350k, Wrecking Ball would only need to sell ~480k+ to beat it with the old formula. Which seems very likely given how Billboard is already projecting 400k+ with a modest prediction. I'm sure it'll pass 500k at least.

[stanr]

with this formula, Sales / 9 + Airplay / 7,500 + Streaming / 450, 45 M streaming are equal to 900,000 sales or 900 M AI???!! LOL

Congrats Miley for her first #1 hit!

It's gonna be VERY hard for Britney next week. I think overall point for Miley would be super high (maybe 2 or 3 times higher than Roar).

[Deleted]

Sept 14, 2013 1:17:55 GMT -5 stanr said:

with this formula, Sales / 9 + Airplay / 7,500 + Streaming / 450, 45 M streaming are equal to 900,000 sales or 900 M AI???!! LOL

Yup, lol. Normally the #1 has around 9 million which is 180k sales or 180m AI. Insane.

I did some research, Gentleman had 22,5m US streams after its first 9 days (2 billboard weeks), while accumulating 216m worldwide views. Miley could potentially DOUBLE that in just 7 days

:o

[nivekwriter1]

1. Miley Cyrus - Wrecking Ball (510/12 + 11/7.5 + 30,000,000/450,000) = 110.63 points
2. Katy Perry - Roar (380/12 + 140/7.5 + 11,500,000/450,000) = 75.88 points

And Miley's streaming number will probably be even higher.
If Billboard doesn't make a rule change, Miley is winning this race with a big lead.

[Deleted]

Has Billboard made any official statements on how long a clip has to be to count for streaming?



This 8 second clip with Wrecking Ball's official audio already has 2 million views.

[Rocky]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 234.050 (- 2.695)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 167.932 (+ 4.777)
3. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 143.510 (+ 0.914)
4. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 139.877 (+ 1.868)
5. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 123.270 (- 3.163)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 119.413 (- 2.022)
7. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 106.833 (+ 0.753) ▲
8. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 106.101 (- 2.348) ▼
9. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 103.514 (+ 2.202)
10. LORDE – Royals: 95.272 (+ 2.896) ▲
11. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 94.860 (- 3.337) ▼
12. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 93.775 (- 1.142) ▼
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 91.181 (- 0.437)
14. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 90.550 (+ 2.885) ▲
15. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 86.472 (- 0.240) ▲
16. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 86.297 (- 2.325) ▼
17. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 85.736 (- 1.149) ▼
18. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 70.974 (- 0.187)
19. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 69.676 (+ 1.511)
20. LADY GAGA – Applause: 65.256 (+ 2.189) ▲

FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 64.524 (- 0.313)
JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 61.395 (+ 0.601)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 57.333 (+ 0.205)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 50.773 (+ 1.048)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 44.218 (+ 0.748)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 39.895 (+ 0.731)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 39.045 (+ 0.428)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 37.747 (+ 0.961)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 35.974 (+ 0.793)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 33.713 (- 0.168)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 23.884 (+ 1.105)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 20.805 (+ 0.411)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 19.433 (+ 0.228)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 18.082 (+ 0.298)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 14.626 (+ 0.299)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 13.227 (+ 2.172)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 11.986 (+ 2.318)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 11.812 (+ 0.555)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 8.251 (+ 0.057)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 4.531 (+ 0.540)
COLDPLAY – Atlas: 3.263 (- 0.836)
CELINE DION – Loved Me Back To Life: 2.312 (+ 0.188)
MIKE WILL MADE-IT – 23 f/Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa: 1.236
CHER LLOYD – I Wish f/T.I.: 0.217

Gags finally top 20, Katy Slaying and it seems like "Gorilla" and "Wrecking Ball" will be the big hits of Q4.

[brady47]

What is Katy's Perry biggest radio hit on BDS?

[brady47]

Does anyone think Wrecking Ball is radio friendly? It seems the least radio friendly of her four major hits so far, Party in the USA, See You Again, We Can't Stop, and The Climb.

Streaming will have to keep it in the top region of the chart.

[Glove Slap]

WB is way more radio friendly than WCS. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit #1 on CHR/Pop. This week will probably be its biggest week in terms of Hot 100 points, and she will most likely take a fall next week, but it should stay around the top region for a long time.

[brucelover]

Wrecking Ball seems really radio friendly...catchy, relatable lyrics, low burn out rate because the production varies quite a bit from chorus to verse and the melody takes a while to truly grow on you. I think it will do very well, if digital sales hold up it has potential to be her biggest hit ever (judging from We Can't Stop getting snubbed, I suspect radio has a vendetta against Miley for some reason and if digital sales start to lag they'll use that as an excuse not to spin it as much).

I thought "Give It 2 U" would be an easy top 5 follow-up for Robin, but it's not holding up in digital sales and the track does come across as a bit abrasive so I don't see it anymore, maybe Top 20 with luck.

[jebsib]

So weird that we are pretty much getting official Billboard confirmation on the #1 song for 9/28 on 9/13, two weeks and a day before the 'official date'.

With publication dates lagging behind online info so dramatically, they are going to eventually have to skip a week. The internet age is far too immediate.

If someone asks me what the #1 song is on the day my child is born now, I have no idea. Is it the song that corresponds with the actual issue date, or the song two weeks before?!?

[tekkenguy]

Sept 14, 2013 6:41:42 GMT -5 Rocky said:

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 234.050 (- 2.695)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 167.932 (+ 4.777)
3. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 143.510 (+ 0.914)
4. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 139.877 (+ 1.868)
5. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 123.270 (- 3.163)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 119.413 (- 2.022)
7. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 106.833 (+ 0.753) ▲
8. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 106.101 (- 2.348) ▼
9. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 103.514 (+ 2.202)
10. LORDE – Royals: 95.272 (+ 2.896) ▲
11. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 94.860 (- 3.337) ▼
12. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 93.775 (- 1.142) ▼
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 91.181 (- 0.437)
14. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 90.550 (+ 2.885) ▲
15. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 86.472 (- 0.240) ▲
16. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 86.297 (- 2.325) ▼
17. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 85.736 (- 1.149) ▼
18. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 70.974 (- 0.187)
19. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 69.676 (+ 1.511)
20. LADY GAGA – Applause: 65.256 (+ 2.189) ▲

FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 64.524 (- 0.313)
JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 61.395 (+ 0.601)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 57.333 (+ 0.205)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 50.773 (+ 1.048)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 44.218 (+ 0.748)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 39.895 (+ 0.731)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 39.045 (+ 0.428)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 37.747 (+ 0.961)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 35.974 (+ 0.793)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 33.713 (- 0.168)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 23.884 (+ 1.105)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 20.805 (+ 0.411)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 19.433 (+ 0.228)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 18.082 (+ 0.298)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 14.626 (+ 0.299)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 13.227 (+ 2.172)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 11.986 (+ 2.318)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 11.812 (+ 0.555)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 8.251 (+ 0.057)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 4.531 (+ 0.540)
COLDPLAY – Atlas: 3.263 (- 0.836)
CELINE DION – Loved Me Back To Life: 2.312 (+ 0.188)
MIKE WILL MADE-IT – 23 f/Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa: 1.236
CHER LLOYD – I Wish f/T.I.: 0.217

Gags finally top 20, Katy Slaying and it seems like "Gorilla" and "Wrecking Ball" will be the big hits of Q4.

At this rate, when should "Roar" take the #1 from Blurred Lines.

[Keelzit]

Sept 14, 2013 13:13:07 GMT -5 jebsib said:

So weird that we are pretty much getting official Billboard confirmation on the #1 song for 9/28 on 9/13, two weeks and a day before the 'official date'.

With publication dates lagging behind online info so dramatically, they are going to eventually have to skip a week. The internet age is far too immediate.

If someone asks me what the #1 song is on the day my child is born now, I have no idea. Is it the song that corresponds with the actual issue date, or the song two weeks before?!?

Isn't the prediction for this Thursday's (9/19) charts? 9/28 is the week Brit's song will make its debut. Anyhow, I was wondering the same thing too. Maybe Billboard should consider making a daily, weekly and a monthly chart like Oricon (Japanese charts).

[Rocky]

Sept 14, 2013 13:21:34 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

At this rate, when should "Roar" take the #1 from Blurred Lines.

9 days at this rate, but who knows.

[tekkenguy]

Sept 14, 2013 13:35:01 GMT -5 Rocky said:

Sept 14, 2013 13:21:34 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

At this rate, when should "Roar" take the #1 from Blurred Lines.

9 days at this rate, but who knows.

Avicii's song is nearing the top 10 as well. It'll certainly hit #11 tomorrow, but how long do you think it'll take to reach the top 10?

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 14, 2013 2:25:00 GMT -5 nivekwriter1 said:

1. Miley Cyrus - Wrecking Ball (510/12 + 11/7.5 + 30,000,000/450,000) = 110.63 points
2. Katy Perry - Roar (380/12 + 140/7.5 + 11,500,000/450,000) = 75.88 points

And Miley's streaming number will probably be even higher.
If Billboard doesn't make a rule change, Miley is winning this race with a big lead.

Thats the stuff one cant quantify....or predict at this point. Its kind of annoying really.

[Rocky]

Sept 14, 2013 13:44:29 GMT -5 tekkenguy said:

Sept 14, 2013 13:35:01 GMT -5 Rocky said:

9 days at this rate, but who knows.

Avicii's song is nearing the top 10 as well. It'll certainly hit #11 tomorrow, but how long do you think it'll take to reach the top 10?

In two days, but it's so easy to count. I don't know why did you ask it? Bruno will fall it tomorrow and it'll jump the other two songs the day after.

Oh I see it now. It'll reach the top 10 after it'll manage to pass "Radioactive". The gap between them is 15M AI and WMU is gaining 5M on it. Around 3 or four days.

[Deleted]

Sept 14, 2013 13:29:24 GMT -5 Keelzit said:

Sept 14, 2013 13:13:07 GMT -5 jebsib said:

So weird that we are pretty much getting official Billboard confirmation on the #1 song for 9/28 on 9/13, two weeks and a day before the 'official date'.

With publication dates lagging behind online info so dramatically, they are going to eventually have to skip a week. The internet age is far too immediate.

If someone asks me what the #1 song is on the day my child is born now, I have no idea. Is it the song that corresponds with the actual issue date, or the song two weeks before?!?

Isn't the prediction for this Thursday's (9/19) charts? 9/28 is the week Brit's song will make its debut. Anyhow, I was wondering the same thing too. Maybe Billboard should consider making a daily, weekly and a monthly chart like Oricon (Japanese charts).

He is referring to the printed date on the magazine. There is a 13 day lag between the issue date and the week ending period that it corresponds to.

The 9/21 chart is the period for the week ending 9/8

9/19 charts for the issue date 9/28 is for the week ending 9/15

[imbondz]

But when you're figuring what was #1 on your birthday you find out what song was #1 that day, not a week out or when billboard printed their magazine.

[jebsib]

Let's say you're born on 11/17/10.
We've all just found out on Pulse that "Like a G6" has just returned to #1 that day, as we've gotten the preview chart from bks. It's #1 that day.
That chart, however, is dated 11/27/10, and that is the date used by Joel Whitburn, Wikipedia, and everyone else in the world for historical record.
Thus, when you find out what song was #1 on your birthday, it will either be "We R Who We R" (11/10) or "What's My Name" (11/17).
Which isn't strictly correct.

[Rocky]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 229.905 (- 4.145)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 172.199 (+ 4.267)
3. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 145.099 (+ 1.589)
4. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 142.608 (+ 2.731)
5. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 119.694 (- 3.576)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 117.011 (- 2.402)
7. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 108.162 (+ 1.329)
8. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 106.430 (+ 2.916) ▲
9. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 103.453 (- 2.648) ▼
10. LORDE – Royals: 97.903 (+ 2.631)
11. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 93.840 (+ 3.290) ▲
12. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 92.765 (- 1.010)
13. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 91.829 (- 3.031) ▼
14. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 90.331 (- 0.850) ▼
15. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 86.486 (+ 0.014)
16. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 85.261 (- 1.036)
17. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 84.257 (- 1.479)
18. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 70.297 (+ 0.621) ▲
19. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 70.075 (- 0.899) ▼
20. LADY GAGA – Applause: 67.953 (+ 2.697)

FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 64.260 (- 0.264)
JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 61.783 (+ 0.388)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 57.913 (+ 0.580)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 52.097 (+ 1.324)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 44.996 (+ 0.778)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 40.285 (+ 0.390)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 39.836 (+ 0.791)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 39.050 (+ 1.303)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 36.773 (+ 0.799)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 34.445 (- 0.732)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 25.151 (+ 1.267)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 21.255 (+ 0.450)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 20.207 (+ 0.774)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 18.241 (+ 0.159)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 16.030 (+ 2.803)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 15.177 (+ 0.551)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 15.160 (+ 3.174)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 12.540 (+ 0.728)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 8.327 (+ 0.076)
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 4.980 (+ 0.449)
COLDPLAY – Atlas: 3.414 (+ 0.151)

"White Walls" is coming y'all.

[Kris]

If your birthday was today the #1 song would be Roar. I don't get what's so hard to figure out, lol.

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2013 8:19:32 GMT -5 Kris said:

If your birthday was today the #1 song would be Roar. I don't get what's so hard to figure out, lol.

Actually Roar was #1 for the week-ending LAST WEEK. If your birthday was today, the #1 song would be Wrecking Ball.

;)

[Kris]

But it's not #1.

[Rocky]

Sept 15, 2013 8:48:07 GMT -5 Kris said:

But it's not #1.

Yes, IT IS! It's selling ~500k and getting 100M views THIS week.

[Glove Slap]

Yeah WB is going to be number one on the points that are obtained during this tracking period which is currently ongoing. The one where Roar was #1 for the second week was last week, not this week.

[SPRΞΞ]

he means published and official.

[Glove Slap]

But he's asking what the #1 song would be if you were born today, and the #1 song for this time period will be published in a few days. The publication reflects the end of the period, not the beginning. So if you want to be really technical, the #1 song for this period is yet undetermined. It is expected to be WB.

[Xedretinz Lododnz]

Sept 15, 2013 7:23:52 GMT -5 Rocky said:

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 229.905 (- 4.145)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 172.199 (+ 4.267)

20. LADY GAGA – Applause: 67.953 (+ 2.697)

MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 15.160 (+ 3.174)


"White Walls" is coming y'all.

I see Katy topping the Radio charts a week from now.... :)) (only 57.706 gap between RoaR and BL) you bettah snatch Robin's wig faster katy, you go queen of the radio!!!  ;)

by the way, I'm impressed with applause cause it is slowly becoming a radio hit... Happy for gaga
and Wrecking ball could be a radio friendly song based on it's updates this past days...