Billboard Hot 100 : 9/28/2013

[jebsib]

Yeah, its not a big deal if you were born in week three of Blurred Lines reign.

Where it gets trickier is tracking week, online posting date, and official issue date on revolving-door #1s.

[ILLUSION]

Gaga surpassing everyone's expectations with this one!

[Kris]

In before Roar snatches BL's record (even though it's implausible with BL's multi format advantages)

[chartfreak]

Sept 15, 2013 10:38:52 GMT -5 ILLUSION said:

Gaga surpassing everyone's expectations with this one!

But not her own.

[Lockheart]

Sept 15, 2013 10:44:45 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

Sept 15, 2013 10:38:52 GMT -5 ILLUSION said:

Gaga surpassing everyone's expectations with this one!

But not her own.

LMAO!1

[jayhawk1117]

Roar-Overplayed 3 weeks after its release

[areyoureadytojump]

Britney's new song premieres on radio at 3pm today:

Britney Spears ‏Britney Spears on Twitter:

The radio #WORKBxxCH Premiere is now happening at 3pm ET- tune in to your local station, @iheartradio,or @radiodotcom to hear the REAL THING!

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

I think the radio numbers these days are overinflated. There are only 300million people in the US and you mean to tell me that in one week BL was heard by 90% of those people. I don't buy it. Most people don't even listen to the radio anymore. I think the numbers for radio need to be readjusted honestly to better reflect who is actually listening or decrease the weighting for radio airplay significantly.

[Rocky]

Sept 15, 2013 11:56:36 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Roar-Overplayed 3 weeks after its release

It was released on 12th of August, a month and three days ago.

Sept 15, 2013 12:18:02 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

I think the radio numbers these days are overinflated. There are only 300million people in the US and you mean to tell me that in one week BL was heard by 90% of those people. I don't buy it. Most people don't even listen to the radio anymore. I think the numbers for radio need to be readjusted honestly to better reflect who is actually listening or decrease the weighting for radio airplay significantly.

The US has over 315,000,000 citizens. "Blurred Lines" at its peak was heard by 73% of them (BDS numbers) and that should be totally normal, I buy it. Yep, Mediabase is inflated, but BB doesn't use that for the charts.

[HolidayGuy]

BDS (and Mediabase info) doesn't necessarily represent *unique* listeners, though, in its numbers. A lot of people don't even listen to radio. So, keep that in mind. :)

[Deleted]

It's not unique listeners. #1 songs like Blurred Lines are played 100 times a week on every station, many listeners hear the song 20 times in a single week, counting them 20 times in the AI. I don't think unique listeners were above 70-80 million for BL during any week, and even that's probably way more than reality.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 15, 2013 12:46:05 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

BDS (and Mediabase info) doesn't necessarily represent *unique* listeners, though, in its numbers. A lot of people don't even listen to radio. So, keep that in mind. :)

Thats fine but they are taking radio station audience in theory and multiplying it by number of times played even if that audience is not all listening all the time at any given time of the day. I think since they have more accurate data now they would weigh the airplay equation less and that even more than they currently do. Plus there is the whole most agreeable song issue.

[HolidayGuy]

The BDS system in place tracks number of plays; it can't really track who's listening. So that's where the Arbitron data comes into play. Any system will have its flaws, but this is the best way it can gauge a track's weekly listening audience, even if it's not completely accurate. Look at the flaws in the Nielsen TV ratings system, for cryin' out loud. But, it's the only thing there is, so it is what it is.

[85la]

There is a science involved in the way BDS estimates audience. There might be a small margin of error, but it is overall pretty accurate.

[Deleted]

SCIENCE.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 15, 2013 16:09:27 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

The BDS system in place tracks number of plays; it can't really track who's listening. So that's where the Arbitron data comes into play. Any system will have its flaws, but this is the best way it can gauge a track's weekly listening audience, even if it's not completely accurate. Look at the flaws in the Nielsen TV ratings system, for cryin' out loud. But, it's the only thing there is, so it is what it is.

Its got too much influence over data thats more relevant on multiple levels with streaming and sales in my opinion.

[areyoureadytojump]

Sept 15, 2013 20:19:13 GMT -5 @dangermouz said:

SCIENCE.

[Deleted]

[Au$tin]

Billboard Blinded Me with Science

[Duca]

1. ROBIN THICKE – Blurred Lines f/Pharrell & T.I: 226.809 (-3.096)
2. KATY PERRY – Roar: 176.256 (+4.057)
3. CAPITAL CITIES – Safe And Sound: 146.691 (+1.592)
4. JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 144.682 (+2.074)
5. MAROON 5 – Love Somebody: 115.550 (-4.144)
6. ZEDD – Clarity f/Foxes: 114.793 (-2.218)
7. LANA DEL REY – Summertime Sadness: 109.972 (+1.810)
8. DRAKE – Hold On We’re Going Home: 108.362 (+1.932)
9. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Radioactive: 101.454 (-1.999)
10. LORDE – Royals: 100.459 (+2.556)
11. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 96.826 (+2.986)
12. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – Same Love f/Mary Lambert: 91.841 (-0.924)
13. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Mirrors: 89.803 (-0.528) ▲
14. BRUNO MARS – Treasure: 89.214 (-2.615) ▼
15. CALVIN HARRIS F/ELLIE GOULDING – I Need Your Love: 86.040 (-0.446)
16. DAFT PUNK – Get Lucky: 83.445 (-1.816)
17. ANNA KENDRICK – Cups (Pitch Perfect’s When…: 82.646 (-1.611)
18. J. COLE – Crooked Smile f/TLC: 71.617 (+1.320)
19. PHILLIP PHILLIPS – Gone, Gone, Gone: 69.661 (-0.414)
20. LADY GAGA – Applause: 69.593 (+1.640)

FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Round Here: 63.958 (-0.302)
JASON ALDEAN – Night Train: 62.116 (+0.333)
JUSTIN MOORE – Point At You: 58.698 (+0.785)
LUKE BRYAN – That’s My Kind Of Night: 53.020 (+0.923)
TAYLOR SWIFT – Everything Has …f/Ed Sheeran: 45.055 (+0.059)
PARAMORE – Still Into You: 41.099 (+0.814)
PINK – True Love f/Lily Allen: 40.215 (+0.379)
ROBIN THICKE – Give It 2 U f/Kendrick Lamar: 40.094 (+1.044)
EMINEM – Berzerk: 37.680 (+0.907)
CHRIS BROWN – Love More f/Nicki Minaj: 34.855 (+0.410)
SELENA GOMEZ – Slow Down: 26.854 (+1.703)
IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 21.572 (+0.317)
ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 20.739 (+0.532)
BRUNO MARS – Gorilla: 18.991 (+2.961)
PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 18.339 (+0.098)
MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 17.856 (+2.696)
TEGAN & SARA – Closer: 15.485 (+0.308)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 13.403 (+0.863)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 8.262 (-0.065)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Work Bitch: 6.611
ARIANA GRANDE – Right There f/Big Sean: 5.634 (+0.654)
COLDPLAY – Atlas: 3.565 (+0.151)

[HolidayGuy]

But, streaming includes multiples listens by individual users, too, eh? And then there was the one-person-buying-multiple-copies issue with physical singles. Every component will have its "flaws." Whether one component is more relevant than another is open to debate. In other countries, sales alone made up the official charts and have for years. But in the USA, airplay and sales always have been factors.

[velaxti]

Sept 15, 2013 16:02:02 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Sept 15, 2013 12:46:05 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

BDS (and Mediabase info) doesn't necessarily represent *unique* listeners, though, in its numbers. A lot of people don't even listen to radio. So, keep that in mind. :)

Thats fine but they are taking radio station audience in theory and multiplying it by number of times played even if that audience is not all listening all the time at any given time of the day. I think since they have more accurate data now they would weigh the airplay equation less and that even more than they currently do. Plus there is the whole most agreeable song issue.

I don't think that's actually the case. Well, I don't know for sure, but I know for radio airplay in the UK, they have detailed data on how many people are listening to a station on average each hour. So the UK airplay chart a spin at 3am contributes less AI than a spin at 9am even from the same radio station. I assume it's probably the same in the US too, and if it is, then it's taken into accounted that the audience are not listening all day.

[badrobot]

Sept 16, 2013 8:32:07 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Sept 15, 2013 16:02:02 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Thats fine but they are taking radio station audience in theory and multiplying it by number of times played even if that audience is not all listening all the time at any given time of the day. I think since they have more accurate data now they would weigh the airplay equation less and that even more than they currently do. Plus there is the whole most agreeable song issue.

I don't think that's actually the case. Well, I don't know for sure, but I know for radio airplay in the UK, they have detailed data on how many people are listening to a station on average each hour. So the UK airplay chart a spin at 3am contributes less AI than a spin at 9am even from the same radio station. I assume it's probably the same in the US too, and if it is, then it's taken into accounted that the audience are not listening all day.

They do factor that in (how many listeners at different times of day) in the US.

There is a lot of room for interpretation for "audience impressions." For example, if you happened to be at a stoplight and the car next to you had "Blurred Lines" blaring on the radio, and you heard it for 30 seconds, one could argue that was an "audience impression."

I don't really know what they actually count. A lot of radio listening is involuntary -- while shopping, in waiting rooms (dentist, doctor, etc.), at restaurants... all places with large numbers of people who are not actively deciding to listen to that radio station, but still hearing the songs anyway.

I do find it really odd that we count streaming and traditional radio so differently -- when it comes down to it, is putting on a Pandora radio station with ads (where you're not picking the songs, just the general genre) really that different from turning on a radio station with ads (where you're also not picking the songs, just the general genre)?

[surreallife]

The biggest weakness of the airplay chart has always been, to my mind, the method used to measure the size of the audience. It has improved in recent years with the introduction of PPM in the large radio markets, but it is still a rough guess based on a extrapolation of the listening habits of the sample group. The streaming #s and the download sales are a far more objective measurement. To be honest I don't take the HOT100 as seriously as I used to. I have switched over to the Digital Songs chart as the best measurement of a song's popularity. The HOT100 is a fun curiousity.

[HolidayGuy]

As described by Billboard in the past:

"Songs are ranked by gross impressions, computed by cross-referencing exact times of airplay with Arbitron listener data."

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 16, 2013 8:32:07 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Sept 15, 2013 16:02:02 GMT -5 Adonis the DemiGod! said:

Thats fine but they are taking radio station audience in theory and multiplying it by number of times played even if that audience is not all listening all the time at any given time of the day. I think since they have more accurate data now they would weigh the airplay equation less and that even more than they currently do. Plus there is the whole most agreeable song issue.

I don't think that's actually the case. Well, I don't know for sure, but I know for radio airplay in the UK, they have detailed data on how many people are listening to a station on average each hour. So the UK airplay chart a spin at 3am contributes less AI than a spin at 9am even from the same radio station. I assume it's probably the same in the US too, and if it is, then it's taken into accounted that the audience are not listening all day.

Thats exactly the point i was making is that airplay is an average of guesstimates whereas with internet based there is significantly less guesstimating involved which is better data than say airplay. Every three or six months or year airplay has to be updated whereas with internet you tract exactly what people listen to.

[Au$tin]

"Roar" should be #1 in overall AI by next Monday, hopefully.

[85la]

The sheer audience size of airplay makes it a far more relevant measure for me of "what gets listened to" each week.

[Adonis the DemiGod!]

Sept 16, 2013 13:06:22 GMT -5 85la said:

The sheer audience size of airplay makes it a far more relevant measure for me of "what gets listened to" each week.

The audience size is not based on actual listeners. Its based on how big the market youre in is and other irrelevant to who is actually listening stuff that at best might be related to how agreeable a song is which many would argue should not factor into how popular a song is. I wont even get into the concerns about clear channel deals and other forms of pay for play involved with radio.

[TylerG11]

Why is radio so hesitant with counting stars? Not my #1 favorite song of all time but I do really like it, and shocked it hasn't caught on radio better with the way it's held steady on iTunes.