Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Daniel Collins]

Nov 15, 2014 9:44:08 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

For the most part, you were very close, for a lot of songs only 1-5 spot difference. Also, didn't you not start till later in 2013? I have a feeling this year'll be much more on target!

I hope so. I need to prove something to the doubters :)

[Dylan :)]

I was wondering, how exactly do you do this? Do you always use the estimates on the first page, and do you track every single Hot 100 song? Finally, where do you get the points?

[Daniel Collins]

^It's not as hard as what you're thinking


I have an Excel file with 3 sheets that are connected to each other: the first is for the Hot 100 positions , the second is for the point assignment and the third one is the one I'm posting here.

I have a second excel file for the points, the top 10 from the Billboard article is very helpful to this. I am also using the top 50 of the three components to estimate the points of songs below top 10, I usually do inverse point to songs below top 25 but there are times when data are available that I can assign close points to the entire top 40.

These are the files:
Hot 100
Song's Points from Components

[rimetm]

Thanks so much for this list; I've now purchased all 100 of the current songs and am fully prepared for year-end parties and the DDR pack!

Also, "Best Day of My Life" is now ready for the latter:

[mamooshka]

It's looking to be an international 2014 year-end tally with lead artists hailing from all around the globe. As expected, American acts dominate with 67 entries, followed by the UK at 15.

But thanks to Iggy, Sia and 5SOS, Australia rakes in 4 titles, while Avicii and Tove bring the total Swedish haul to 3.

Canadians (Magic and Drake) and New Zealander (Lorde) take in 2 entries each for their respective countries.

The other musical forces (1 title each) hail from Colombia (Shakira), France (Dr Snake), Germany (Zedd), Netherlands (Martin), Norway (Nico & Vinz), South Africa (Kongos) and Spain (Enrique.

[Deleted]

"Doctor Snake" lol...
And I thought Zedd was Russian...

[mamooshka]

Nov 17, 2014 10:35:29 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

"Doctor Snake" lol...
And I thought Zedd was Russian...

Damn spell check. 

Good catch.  He's Russian-German so you could go one way or the other....

[w6]

Won't Dark Horse be higher on the Decade End Chart if you combine it's points it got in September,October and November last year?
And how many weeks are there left before the songs will stop getting points?1 week or 2 weeks?Will Unconditionally make the Top 100

[velaxti]

Nov 15, 2014 8:16:07 GMT -5 @billboardfan1 said:

it's chart performance was weak and made its run late in the year, and peaking at 33 in only one week despite charting 20 weeks isn't good enough to make the official list

I think for the year-end charts they don't include points after a song goes recurrent, so having 20 weeks early in the year or 20 weeks late in the year wouldn't make much difference (it would make a different only if the song late in the year gets part of its chart run cut off into 2015).

It is possible for songs that peak in the 30's to make the year-end top 100. Not saying it's certain that No Mediocre will, but it's possible, since I've seen it happen before.

For example, last year Bugatti by Ace Hood peaked at #33 in the weekly charts, and got #91 in the year-end chart (I can't remember how long it charted, but I'd imagine it was just 20 weeks).

[areyoureadytojump]

Capitol Records ‏@capitolrecords on Twitter:

Way to go #KatyCats! katyperry is US radio's Artist of the Year with #DarkHorse as the most played song in 2014!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think they are talking about the year end Billboard charts since the chart today is the last one for the Billboard year??

[Deleted]

"Happy" will be the #1 song in the year end charts. It was #1 for 10 weeks, spent the same amount of weeks in the Top 10 as DH, spent almost as much weeks in the Hot 100 during the chart year, and was the most downloaded song of 2014. "Dark Horse" will be the runner up, and honestly, I'm pulling for "Happy" to be on top because Pharrell has more artistic credibility than Katy does.

[Deleted]

So it's extremely close between Talk Dirty and All About That Bass because AATB got about 43k-45k this week...

[tucomrang]

All of those massive points Taylor got this week will be counted on the last week of 2014 :(
I wish Yahoo just waited for one more week (which means this week) to leak that damn video of Blank Space so its points would be counted in 2015 :(

[mamooshka]

Nov 19, 2014 19:36:32 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

All of those massive points Taylor got this week will be counted on the last week of 2014 :(
I wish Yahoo just waited for one more week (which means this week) to leak that damn video of Blank Space so its points would be counted in 2015 :(

Had that happened, she would not have accomplished her record-breaking feat of being the only woman to replace herself atop the Hot 100.  "Shake" would have been dethroned by "Bass" for one final week, before she recaptured the lead with "Space" the following week.

As it is, she's in a very exclusive club of only 10 acts in history (including the Beatles) who have succeeded themselves at the summit.  That's a pretty impressive achievement to highlight in your resumé.

[Daniel Collins]

Week 52 won't be posted yet.
I need Kworb :(

[Adonia]

Nov 21, 2014 8:59:53 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Week 52 won't be posted yet.
I need Kworb :(

Thanks for the work on this, I love reading through! kworbtest.dreamhosters. com is still up, it's the test site. I use it whenever Kworb goes down, it's outdated by a year but the pop bars are always updated.

[josh]

Daniel Collins Do you have, based on all the data you have, an average weekly point value for each of the top 10 songs in any given week?

[Daniel Collins]

josh Average for every position or for every song?

[josh]

Nov 21, 2014 19:13:50 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

josh Average for every position or for every song?

I knew that phrasing wouldn't be clear haha. But basically, on any given week, what would the typical (average, I suppose) points be for the #1, #2, #3, ..., and #10 songs?

[Daniel Collins]

josh

Hot 100	Max	Min	Average
1	86,950	41,170	54,803
2	71,240	34,570	47,922
3	56,680	30,630	39,639
4	47,260	29,820	35,963
5	43,450	27,160	32,388
6	43,410	22,600	29,038
7	39,020	20,480	27,528
8	37,790	18,690	25,644
9	36,320	18,540	24,450
10	35,750	17,170	23,270
11	35,650	16,780	22,136
12	34,870	16,380	21,150
13	26,200	15,560	20,164
14	24,810	15,060	19,234
15	24,220	14,250	18,537
16	23,980	13,940	17,849
17	23,390	13,890	17,160
18	22,140	13,560	16,511
19	21,810	13,140	15,961
20	20,690	12,610	15,494
21	20,420	12,210	15,103
22	20,390	12,080	14,706
23	20,150	12,070	14,319
24	20,020	11,530	14,039
25	20,000	11,300	13,772

Max #1 and #2 occur at the same week. "Shake It Off" debut and "Anaconda"'s video premiere.
Max #3-#25 happened on week 1/11/14 , the Christmas week.
Min #1 "Rude" (6th and final week)
Min #2 "Timber" (12/21/13)
Min #3 "Habits" (11/8/14)
Min #4 "Bang Bang" (11/8/14)
Min #5 "Bang Bang" (11/22/14)
Min #6-9 (4/26/14) "Pompeii","Team","Turn Down For What", "The Man"
Min #10 "Turn Down For What" (4/12/14)

[josh]

Thanks! :)

[Daniel Collins]

Nov 18, 2014 9:05:50 GMT -5 w6 said:

Won't Dark Horse be higher on the Decade End Chart if you combine it's points it got in September,October and November last year?
And how many weeks are there left before the songs will stop getting points?1 week or 2 weeks?Will Unconditionally make the Top 100

Actually, "Happy" is already above "Dark Horse" in the decades chart.

www.billboard.com/articles/news/6304307/billboard-hot-100-2010s

7. "Happy" - Pharrell Williams
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: March 8, 2014

9. "Dark Horse" - Katy Perry Featuring Juicy J
Hot 100 Peak Position: 1, Peak Date: February 8, 2014

[Dylan :)]

Are you able to do it with the figures posted on that test site mentioned? 2015 chart next week

[Daniel Collins]

^Nope. It doesn't have the sales estimate and the radio numbers for 11/19 :(

[imbondz]

What date do the year end charts come out?

[Dylan :)]

Nov 22, 2014 13:11:08 GMT -5 imbondz said:

What date do the year end charts come out?

Probably mid/early December. Pretty sure they came out on the like the 13th or something last year, but that chart went longer

[tucomrang]

i would wait for the 52nd week forever :(

[Daniel Collins]

Week 52: Up to week dated 11/29/2014

Formula: Sales/12 + Airplay/8,700 + Streams/550

Hot 100	Song	Points	% Streams	%Sales	%Radio
1	Blank Space	70,290	50%	39%	11%
2	All About That Bass	43,060	50%	25%	25%
3	Shake It Off	39,500	46%	20%	34%
4	Animals	36,920	29%	28%	43%
5	Habits (Stay High)	32,560	35%	17%	48%
6	Take Me To Church	26,900	40%	41%	19%
7	Hot Boy	24,380	73%	12%	15%
8	Bang Bang	24,260	45%	20%	35%
9	I'm Not The Only One	24,030	39%	32%	29%
10	Jealous	22,660	44%	31%	25%

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
1	1	Pharrell Williams	Happy	1,389,830	37	46	1
2	2	Katy Perry	Dark Horse	1,322,250	-	48	1
3	3	John Legend	All Of Me	1,312,720	36	52	1
4	4	Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX	Fancy	1,036,890	45	37	1
5	5	OneRepublic	Counting Stars	984,380	-	46	2
7	6	Magic!	Rude	853,480	28	30	1
6	7	Jason Derulo ft. 2 Chainz	Talk Dirty	850,400	-	33	3
9	8	Meghan Trainor	All About That Bass	849,630	2	19	1
8	9	Ariana Grande ft. Iggy Azalea	Problem	816,840	-	25	2
11	10	Sam Smith	Stay With Me	807,810	20	32	2
10	11	Pitbull ft. Ke$ha	Timber	798,030	-	33	1
12	12	Bastille	Pompeii	738,230	-	39	5
15	13	Taylor Swift	Shake It Off	714,710	3	13	1
13	14	Nico And Vinz	Am I Wrong	711,540	40	31	4
14	15	DJ Snake & Lil Jon	Turn Down For What	681,650	-	37	4
16	16	Eminem ft. Rihanna	The Monster	667,920	-	26	1
17	17	A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera	Say Something	590,430	-	24	4
18	18	Lorde	Team	583,380	-	30	6
19	19	Passenger	Let Her Go	571,440	-	27	5
20	20	Idina Menzel	Let It Go (IM)	559,150	-	33	5
21	21	Lorde	Royals	556,520	-	24	1
22	22	Avicii	Wake Me Up	552,570	-	32	5
23	23	Imagine Dragons	Demons	545,000	-	31	6
24	24	One Direction	Story Of My Life	528,820	-	29	8
25	25	Sia	Chandelier	511,710	25	28	8
26	26	Iggy Azalea ft. Rita Ora	Black Widow	495,100	16	20	3
28	27	Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj	Bang Bang	493,580	8	16	3
27	28	Disclosure ft. Sam Smith	Latch	470,080	-	33	7
31	29	Maroon 5	Maps	458,570	42	22	6
29	30	Chris Brown ft. Lil Wayne, French Montana, Too $hort, Tyga	Loyal	452,190	-	36	9
30	31	American Authors	Best Day Of My Life	449,680	-	35	11
37	32	Tove Lo	Habits (Stay High)	442,660	5	25	3
32	33	Calvin Harris	Summer	442,650	-	26	7
34	34	Charli XCX	Boom Clap	436,970	47	24	8
33	35	Beyonce ft. Jay-Z	Drunk In Love	432,870	-	20	2
35	36	Nicki Minaj	Anaconda	428,780	34	15	2
38	37	Ariana Grande ft. Zedd	Break Free	417,250	31	20	4
39	38	Enrique Iglesias ft. Decemer Bueno, Gente De Zona	Bailando	412,410	44	29	12
36	39	Ellie Goulding	Burn	410,830	-	25	13
43	40	Clean Bandit ft. Jess Glyne	Rather Be	398,400	23	23	10
40	41	Jason Derulo ft. Snoop Dogg	Wiggle	397,290	-	21	5
41	42	Miley Cyrus	Wrecking Ball	393,560	-	19	1
42	43	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Show Me	390,550	-	29	13
46	44	Jeremih ft. YG	Don't Tell 'Em	381,760	15	21	6
44	45	Katy Perry	Roar	377,800	-	20	7
45	46	Justin Timberlake	Not A Bad Thing	367,910	-	22	8
47	47	Paramore	Ain't It Fun	341,000	-	24	10
48	48	Aloe Blacc	The Man	328,640	-	20	8
49	49	Florida Georgia Line ft. Luke Bryan	This Is How We Roll	323,390	-	28	15
50	50	MKTO	Classic	307,670	-	27	14
51	51	Coldplay	A Sky Full Of Stars	302,770	-	26	10
52	52	Imagine Dragons	Radioactive	296,640	-	23	13
53	53	Drake ft. Majid Jordan	Hold On We're Going Home	295,360	-	18	9
56	54	Ed Sheeran	Don't	294,030	11	23	9
54	55	Trey Songz	Na Na	293,810	-	28	21
60	56	Bobby Shmurda	Hot Boy	286,280	7	16	6
55	57	YG ft. Jeezy & Rich Homie Quan	My Hitta	279,410	-	21	19
57	58	Ed Sheeran	Sing	269,230	-	20	13
58	59	Avicii	Hey Brother	265,370	-	23	16
66	60	Echosmith	Cool Kids	262,750	24	19	13
59	61	Martin Garrix	Animals	262,420	-	25	21
61	62	Tinashe ft. Schoolboy Q	2 On	261,070	-	24	24
72	63	Maroon 5	Animals (2)	258,240	4	13	3
70	64	Jason Derulo	Trumpets	257,250	18	25	14
62	65	Brantley Gilbert	Bottoms Up	255,800	-	25	20
65	66	Jason Aldean	Burnin' It Down	255,300	63	17	12
63	67	Luke Bryan	Play It Again	252,510	-	20	14
64	68	OneRepublic	Love Runs Out	249,940	-	20	15
68	69	Florida Georgia Line	Dirt	249,870	67	19	11
67	70	Becky G	Shower	246,180	-	20	16
69	71	Rixton	Me And My Broken Heart	241,220	-	20	14
71	72	Sara Bareilles	Brave	230,670	-	19	23
76	73	Rich Gang ft. Young Thug, Rich Homie Quan	Lifestyle	228,470	22	18	16
73	74	Kenny Chesney	American Kids	218,260	-	20	23
74	75	Robin Thicke ft. TI, Pharrell	Blurred Lines	212,690	-	17	19
75	76	The Neighbourhood	Sweater Weather	212,490	-	14	14
77	77	Lady Antebellum	Bartender	202,250	-	20	31
82	78	Sam Hunt	Leave The Night On	202,030	48	21	30
93	79	Chris Brown ft. Usher, Rick Ross	New Flame	198,580	30	18	27
78	80	Dierks Bentley	Drunk On A Plane	198,460	-	20	27
79	81	Mike-Will-Made-It ft. Miley Cyrus, Wiz Khalifa , Juicy J	23	197,130	-	14	14
80	82	Lady Gaga ft. R.Kelly	Do What U Want	195,540	-	15	16
81	83	Naughty Boy ft. Sam Smith	La La La	195,230	-	20	19
83	84	Luke Bryan	Drink A Beer	189,700	-	18	31
84	85	Katy Perry	Birthday	189,560	-	18	17
85	86	TI ft. Iggy Azalea	No Mediocre	189,020	-	20	33
86	87	Shakira ft. Rihanna	Can't Remember To Forget You	188,840	-	19	15
96	88	5 Seconds Of Summer	Amnesia	188,720	72	20	16
87	89	Beyonce	Partition	188,390	-	21	23
88	90	Lil Wayne ft. Drake	Believe Me	188,060	-	20	26
89	91	Michael Jackson & Justin Timberlake	Love Never Felt So Good	187,710	-	20	9
90	92	Zedd ft. Hayley Williams	Stay The Night	185,900	-	13	18
91	93	Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Schoolboy Q and Hollis	White Walls	185,570	-	13	15
92	94	Kongos	Come With Me Now	185,450	-	21	31
94	95	Jake Owen	Beachin'	184,780	-	20	26
95	96	Eric Church	Give Me Back My Hometown	184,350	-	20	36
97	97	Demi Lovato	Neon Lights	182,160	-	20	36
98	98	Schoolboy Q ft. BJ The Chicago Kid	Studio	181,220	-	20	38
99	99	Katy Perry	Unconditionally	178,980	-	16	14
100	100	5 Seconds Of Summer	She Looks So Perfect	178,700	-	20	24

[Daniel Collins]

LW	TW	Artist	Song	Points	BB Hot 100	Weeks On	Peak
101	101	Lee Brice	I Don't Dance	177,800	-	20	33
102	102	Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood	Somethin' Bad	176,670	-	20	19
103	103	AWOLNATION	Sail	176,340	-	16	32
109	104	Drake	0 to 100 / The Catch Up	175,620	53	17	35
104	105	Miley Cyrus	Adore You	174,670	-	16	21
105	106	TY Dolla $ign & B.O.B.	Paranoid	173,860	-	20	29
106	107	Jason Aldean	When She Says Baby	173,120	-	20	38
107	108	Demi Lovato	Let It Go	171,400	-	20	38
117	109	Vance Joy	Riptide	170,100	32	21	32
108	110	Nicki Minaj	Pills N Potions	168,340	-	18	24
110	111	Jhene Aiko	The Worst	165,970	-	20	43
111	112	Demi Lovato ft. Cher Lloyd	Really Don't Care	164,500	-	17	26
112	113	Jerrod Niemann	Drink To That All Night	162,480	-	20	34
113	114	Rascal Flatts	Rewind	161,980	-	20	38
114	115	Thomas Rhett	Get Me Some Of That	161,710	-	20	41
115	116	Christina Perri	Human	160,660	-	20	31
116	117	Capital Cities	Safe & Sound	159,890	-	14	28
144	118	Hozier	Take Me To Church	159,860	6	14	6
118	119	John Newman	Love Me Again	156,350	-	18	30
122	120	Katy Perry	This Is How We Do	156,290	79	16	24
119	121	Florida Georgia Line	Stay	155,000	-	15	28
120	122	Keith Urban	Cop Car	153,510	-	18	41
121	123	Wiz Khalifa	We Dem Boyz	151,500	-	20	43
123	124	Joe Nichols	Yeah	151,050	-	20	41
127	125	Pitbull ft. John Ryan	Fireball	150,740	64	15	23
126	126	Luke Bryan	Roller Coaster (2)	148,550	81	18	43
124	127	Young Money ft. Drake	Trophies	148,280	-	20	50
148	128	Mr. Probz	Waves	147,150	19	13	19
156	129	Sam Smith	I'm Not The Only One	145,870	9	11	9
125	130	Cole Swindell	Chillin It	144,880	-	15	28
138	131	Rae Sremmurd	No Flex Zone	143,940	58	16	36
128	132	David Nail	Whatever She's Got	142,800	-	14	35
129	133	Miranda Lambert	Automatic	142,600	-	19	35
130	134	Brett Eldredge	Beat Of The Music	141,200	-	20	44
131	135	Eminem	Rap God	141,050	-	15	33
151	136	Calvin Harris ft. John Newman	Blame	140,890	21	10	19
132	137	Blake Shelton	Doing What She Likes	138,820	-	17	35
133	138	YG ft. Drake	Who Do You Love	138,200	-	20	54
134	139	Dierks Bentley	I Hold On	138,190	-	19	40
135	140	Pitbull ft. G.R.L.	Wild Wild Love	137,500	-	18	30
136	141	Dustin Lynch	Where It's At	136,600	-	20	42
137	142	Lady Antebellum	Compass	135,600	-	18	46
139	143	Sevyn Streeter & Chris Brown	It Won't Stop	134,600	-	13	30
140	144	Future ft. Pharrell, Pusha T , Casino	Move That Doh	133,690	-	18	46
141	145	Chris Young	Who I Am With You	133,600	-	19	48
142	146	Tim McGraw & Faith Hill	Meanwhile Back At Mama's	133,500	-	19	41
143	147	Cole Swindell	Hope You Get Lonely Tonight	133,050	-	20	50
145	148	Kristen Bell ft. Agatha Lee Monn, Katie Lopez	Do You Want To Build A Snowman	132,200	-	18	51
146	149	Lady Gaga	Applause	131,810	-	9	14
147	150	Justin Moore	Lettin' The Night Roll	130,900	-	20	49
149	151	Chase Rice	Ready Set Roll	129,150	-	20	54
163	152	Milky Chance	Stolen Dance	128,800	50	17	50
150	153	Frankie Ballard	Helluva Life	128,500	-	20	51
152	154	Dan + Shay	19 You + Me	123,700	-	18	42
153	155	Kcamp ft. 2 Chainz	Cut Her Off	123,300	-	20	49
154	156	Blake Shelton ft. Gwen Sebastian	My Eyes	122,900	-	16	39
155	157	Drake ft. 2 Chainz, Big Sean	All Me	122,200	-	12	37
157	158	TY Dolla $ign ft. Wiz Khalifas , DJ Mustard	Or Nah	121,700	-	20	48
186	159	Nick Jonas	Jealous	121,420	10	10	10
158	160	T-Pain & B.O.B.	Up Down	121,270	-	20	62
159	161	Tyler Farr	Whiskey In My Water	121,200	-	18	52
160	162	Bruno Mars	Young Girls	120,970	-	14	32
170	163	Frankie Ballard	Sunshine & Whiskey	120,770	60	19	57
161	164	Coldplay	Magic	120,750	-	14	14
162	165	Ingrid Michaelson	Girls Chase Boys	119,100	-	20	52
164	166	The Chainsmokers	#Selfie	117,750	-	11	16
165	167	Brad Paisley	River Bank	117,700	-	18	54
184	168	Fall Out Boy	Centuries	117,640	29	10	22
166	169	Iggy Azalea	Work	117,050	-	20	54
167	170	Kristen Bell & Idina Menzel	For The First Time In Forever	116,550	-	19	57
179	171	Blake Shelton	Neon Light	116,250	57	13	43
168	172	Kid Ink ft. Chris Brown	Main Chick	116,050	-	20	60
183	173	TI ft. Young Thug	About The Money	114,900	51	15	42
169	174	Young Thug	Stoner	114,050	-	15	47
171	175	Jay-Z ft. Justin Timberlake	Holy Grail	111,610	-	8	17
172	176	Billy Currington	We Are Tonight	111,400	-	19	60
173	177	Eric Paslay	Friday Night	110,450	-	15	47
174	178	0	V.3005	109,550	-	20	64
175	179	Austin Mahone ft. Pitbull	Mmm Yeah	108,710	-	15	49
176	180	Brantley Gilbert ft. Justin Moore, Thomas Rhett	Small Town Throwdown	108,110	-	20	67
176	181	Arctic Monkeys	Do I Wanna Know	108,100	-	20	70
178	182	Neon Trees	Sleeping With A Friend	107,970	-	16	51
180	183	Chris Brown ft. Nicki Minaj	Love More	107,560	-	9	27
181	184	Scotty McCreery	See You Tonight	107,500	-	16	52
268	185	Taylor Swift	Blank Space	107,140	1	3	1
182	186	Randy Houser	Goodnight Kiss	105,450	-	16	52
189	187	Little Big Town	Day Drinking	103,900	55	17	40
191	188	Maddie And Tae	Girl In A Country Song	103,200	56	15	56
185	189	Pharrell Williams	Come Get It Bae	100,400	-	15	23
187	190	Usher	Good Kisser	98,750	-	19	65
199	191	One Direction	Steal My Girl	96,780	33	7	13
207	192	Rae Sremmurd	No Type	96,270	17	8	17
188	193	Drake	The Language	95,980	-	16	63
190	194	Jason Derulo	Marry Me	94,600	-	10	26
215	195	Big Sean ft. E-40	I Don't Fuck With You	94,070	14	8	14
192	196	Zac Brown Band	Sweet Annie	92,000	-	12	47
193	197	Imagine Dragons	On Top Of The World	91,600	-	20	79
194	198	Kiesza	Hideaway	91,100	-	14	51
195	199	DJ Tiesto ft. Matthew Koma	Wasted	88,250	-	12	49
223	200	I Love Makonnen ft. Drake	Tuesday	87,430	12	8	12

[Daniel Collins]

Nov 24, 2014 4:33:31 GMT -5 tucomrang said:

i would wait for the 52nd week forever :(

Lol