Kris
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Post by Kris on Dec 20, 2013 14:22:11 GMT -5
I feel like Dark Horse isn't #1 material, it may hit top 5 but it just doesn't feel "big" like Roar or Teenage Dream or Firework etc
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cumulus
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Post by cumulus on Dec 20, 2013 16:35:57 GMT -5
I feel like Dark Horse isn't #1 material, it may hit top 5 but it just doesn't feel "big" like Roar or Teenage Dream or Firework etc This. Why are people counting out Say Something. Timber will be lucky to sneak in a week or two before Say Something dominated the hot 100. It's sales are far superior than any song and it's airplay still has ways to go. Streaming is also gaining massively for this song. Katy is going to have a hard time battling it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 17:58:00 GMT -5
Dark Horse sold 800k with almost non existent airplay, and now that it's starting to get airplay it's exploding on iTunes, already up to #7 and still climbing fast. It should pass Say Something in airplay in a month at the most, and it'll probably be number 1 on iTunes by then with a 2:1 lead.
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Dec 20, 2013 17:59:46 GMT -5
I feel like Dark Horse isn't #1 material, it may hit top 5 but it just doesn't feel "big" like Roar or Teenage Dream or Firework etc Dark Horse feels huge, radio is jumping on it like there's no tomorrow, it's iTunes performance has been so consistent, and the video I can already see being epic. If I was a betting man, I'd say its a sure shot. I'm loving the Timber, Dark Horse, Counting Stars combo I hear on the radio sometimes. Three hot songs in a row is bliss |
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cumulus
Charting
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Post by cumulus on Dec 20, 2013 18:08:30 GMT -5
Dark Horse sold 800k with almost non existent airplay, and now that it's starting to get airplay it's exploding on iTunes, already up to #7 and still climbing fast. It should pass Say Something in airplay in a month at the most, and it'll probably be number 1 on iTunes by then with a 2:1 lead. Do your math girl. "Dark Horse" is only 25 million behind in AI, yet Say Something is currently outselling it by 1:2. Take into consideration that Say Something's airplay is JUST GETTING started too. Judging by today's numbers, if both songs had 100 million AI, dark horse would be trailing in sales by 3:4 |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Dec 20, 2013 18:23:59 GMT -5
Dark Horse sold 800k with almost non existent airplay, and now that it's starting to get airplay it's exploding on iTunes, already up to #7 and still climbing fast. It should pass Say Something in airplay in a month at the most, and it'll probably be number 1 on iTunes by then with a 2:1 lead. Do your math girl. "Dark Horse" is only 25 million behind in AI, yet Say Something is currently outselling it by 1:2. Take into consideration that Say Something's airplay is JUST GETTING started too. Judging by today's numbers, if both songs had 100 million AI, dark horse would be trailing in sales by 3:4 I hope you don't expect Say Something's sales to increase linearly with AI because that's not how things work. Pretty much all songs peak in sales while they are still increasing on radio. |
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cumulus
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Post by cumulus on Dec 20, 2013 18:25:21 GMT -5
Do your math girl. "Dark Horse" is only 25 million behind in AI, yet Say Something is currently outselling it by 1:2. Take into consideration that Say Something's airplay is JUST GETTING started too. Judging by today's numbers, if both songs had 100 million AI, dark horse would be trailing in sales by 3:4 I hope you don't expect Say Something's sales to increase linearly with AI because that's not how things work. Pretty much all songs peak in sales while they are still increasing on radio. I don't. That's why I adjusted down its sales projection at 100 million AI. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 18:36:22 GMT -5
Dark Horse sold 800k with almost non existent airplay, and now that it's starting to get airplay it's exploding on iTunes, already up to #7 and still climbing fast. It should pass Say Something in airplay in a month at the most, and it'll probably be number 1 on iTunes by then with a 2:1 lead. Do your math girl. "Dark Horse" is only 25 million behind in AI, yet Say Something is currently outselling it by 1:2. Take into consideration that Say Something's airplay is JUST GETTING started too. Judging by today's numbers, if both songs had 100 million AI, dark horse would be trailing in sales by 3:4 2 weeks ago it was outselling it 5:1, and now after 2 weeks of Dark Horse getting airplay it's only 2:1. It should be top 3 during the Christmas rush and I think number 1 sometime mid January at the latest. Even if we just use it's current itunes position: It's 0.57 of SS's airplay, and 0.51 of its sales. After the freeze when things stabilize I see Dark Horse getting 4-5 million daily updates, beating Say Something even in a linear sales/airplay scale using the above ratios: Dark Horse 100 million AI, 1.0000 sales Say Something 80 million AI, 0.8900 sales |
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Dec 20, 2013 19:01:57 GMT -5
I think the #1's will go in this order
1. The Monster
2. Timber
3. Counting Stars (maybe, one can only hope)
4. Say Something
5. Dark Horse
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Post by Adonis the DemiGod! on Dec 20, 2013 19:03:14 GMT -5
The Monster
Dark Horse
Drunk In Love
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cumulus
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Post by cumulus on Dec 20, 2013 19:06:35 GMT -5
Do your math girl. "Dark Horse" is only 25 million behind in AI, yet Say Something is currently outselling it by 1:2. Take into consideration that Say Something's airplay is JUST GETTING started too. Judging by today's numbers, if both songs had 100 million AI, dark horse would be trailing in sales by 3:4 2 weeks ago it was outselling it 5:1, and now after 2 weeks of Dark Horse getting airplay it's only 2:1. It should be top 3 during the Christmas rush and I think number 1 sometime mid January at the latest. Even if we just use it's current itunes position: It's 0.57 of SS's airplay, and 0.51 of its sales. After the freeze when things stabilize I see Dark Horse getting 4-5 million daily updates, beating Say Something even in a linear sales/airplay scale using the above ratios: Dark Horse 100 million AI, 1.0000 sales Say Something 80 million AI, 0.8900 sales There's a second version of Say Something in the Itunes top 50 that you are not counting. Right now DH is actually selling about .38 of what SS is. You said you expect sales to stabilize for SS as it climbs radio, yet you haven't applied your theory to dark horse at all. Given the fact that it already sold 800k before it became a single, I imagine it would stabilize even quicker. The only benefit it will have is the release of its music video. Which is why i said I can see it interrupting Say Something at #1 for about a week or two. But then again it seems music videos these days aren't really impacting sales unless you are Miley. I mean look at Monster. The video came out this week and sales haven't shown. Its only benefit will be extra streaming points on the hot 100. |
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charismatic
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Post by charismatic on Dec 20, 2013 19:09:26 GMT -5
I feel like Dark Horse isn't #1 material, it may hit top 5 but it just doesn't feel "big" like Roar or Teenage Dream or Firework etc This. Why are people counting out Say Something. Timber will be lucky to sneak in a week or two before Say Something dominated the hot 100. It's sales are far superior than any song and it's airplay still has ways to go. Streaming is also gaining massively for this song. Katy is going to have a hard time battling it. Say something was #196 on itunes without the voice and X factor. Once the promo wears off, SS doesn't have too much longevity, 'cause it's clearly a song that got popular because of TV exposure, not because radio made it popular. Timber made the top 4 on iTunes naturally, thanks to the radio requests. Right now Timber is coming for the top again, and keep in mind that Timber also has 3 other versions in the top 500. 1 A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera - Say Something 1.0000 2 Pitbull - Timber (feat. Ke$ha) 0.9205 3 Eminem - The Monster (feat. Rihanna) 0.6825 Right now SS is just a talent show hit, request it on the radio if you want it to gain + 3 million on the radio. ;) |
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cumulus
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Post by cumulus on Dec 20, 2013 19:12:47 GMT -5
This. Why are people counting out Say Something. Timber will be lucky to sneak in a week or two before Say Something dominated the hot 100. It's sales are far superior than any song and it's airplay still has ways to go. Streaming is also gaining massively for this song. Katy is going to have a hard time battling it. Say something was #196 on itunes without the voice and X factor. Once the promo wears off, SS doesn't have longevity, 'cause it's clearly a song that got popular because of TV exposure, not because of radio like it was Timber. Right now Timber is coming for the top again, and keep in mind that Timber also has 3 other versions in the top 500. 1 A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera - Say Something 1.0000 2 Pitbull - Timber (feat. Ke$ha) 0.9205 3 Eminem - The Monster (feat. Rihanna) 0.6825 Right now SS is just a talent show hit, request it on the radio if you want it to gain + 3 million on the radio. ;) Whatever keeps you sleeping at night honey. Timber has more than twice the airplay of SS yet can't beat it in sales? I would be concerned if I was you. The power of Pitbull right? They were both performed at The American Music Awards...tell me which one went to #1 afterwards? |
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Envoirment
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Post by Envoirment on Dec 20, 2013 19:19:03 GMT -5
Right now SS is just a talent show hit. A GREAT BIG WORLD – Say Something w/C. Aguilera: 56.131 (+ 1.762) It's doing well on radio actually. |
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charismatic
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Post by charismatic on Dec 20, 2013 19:33:06 GMT -5
Say something was #196 on itunes without the voice and X factor. Once the promo wears off, SS doesn't have longevity, 'cause it's clearly a song that got popular because of TV exposure, not because of radio like it was Timber. Right now Timber is coming for the top again, and keep in mind that Timber also has 3 other versions in the top 500. 1 A Great Big World & Christina Aguilera - Say Something 1.0000 2 Pitbull - Timber (feat. Ke$ha) 0.9205 3 Eminem - The Monster (feat. Rihanna) 0.6825 Right now SS is just a talent show hit, request it on the radio if you want it to gain + 3 million on the radio. ;) Whatever keeps you sleeping at night honey. Timber has more than twice the airplay of SS yet can't beat it in sales? I would be concerned if I was you. The power of Pitbull right? Timber has been already #1 on itunes and during its run has outsold the monster with less airplay, yet TM is still #1. But let's not act like Timber's airplay and sales don't match. Timber made the top 5 on itunes with only 30 millions AI and without TV promo,when he went to promote it, Timber was #4 on itunes.
I doubt that SS would have done that without the voice exposure/Victoria/X factor. This week Timber has been unlucky on itunes, when it was about to recover the top, The voice's exposure and the X factor gave SS a new boost. Did you know that the winners of X factor performed twice SS this week? :) |
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Post by Rocky on Dec 20, 2013 19:35:47 GMT -5
Oh no this is turning into a "Timber" thread which I don't check anymore. I won't give up on these threads.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2013 19:41:16 GMT -5
2 weeks ago it was outselling it 5:1, and now after 2 weeks of Dark Horse getting airplay it's only 2:1. It should be top 3 during the Christmas rush and I think number 1 sometime mid January at the latest. Even if we just use it's current itunes position: It's 0.57 of SS's airplay, and 0.51 of its sales. After the freeze when things stabilize I see Dark Horse getting 4-5 million daily updates, beating Say Something even in a linear sales/airplay scale using the above ratios: Dark Horse 100 million AI, 1.0000 sales Say Something 80 million AI, 0.8900 sales There's a second version of Say Something in the Itunes top 50 that you are not counting. Right now DH is actually selling about .38 of what SS is. You said you expect sales to stabilize for SS as it climbs radio, yet you haven't applied your theory to dark horse at all. Given the fact that it already sold 800k before it became a single, I imagine it would stabilize even quicker. The only benefit it will have is the release of its music video. Which is why i said I can see it interrupting Say Something at #1 for about a week or two. But then again it seems music videos these days aren't really impacting sales unless you are Miley. I mean look at Monster. The video came out this week and sales haven't shown. Its only benefit will be extra streaming points on the hot 100. Hm, I didn't know it had a second version. With that in mind, Dark Horse is 0.45 right now. I never said I expect Say Something to stabilize in sales, I meant after the freeze when radio stabilizes back to its normal updates, I think Dark Horse will be getting 4-5 million daily while Say Something will be getting 2-3. DH hasn't started yet on HAC where every Katy song usually goes number 1, while Rhythmic and Pop seem like no brainer number 1's. |
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on Dec 20, 2013 19:44:14 GMT -5
With Billboard fiddling with the chart formula a lot in recent years, it can get confusing keeping track of what factors into the Hot 100 and in what proportions, so, just as a reminder, the number of times you post about a particular song going to #1 in the Hot 100 thread does not influence its chart position.
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charismatic
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Post by charismatic on Dec 20, 2013 19:47:25 GMT -5
Oh no this is turning into a "Timber" thread which I don't check anymore. I won't give up on these threads. Stop creating unnecessary drama. This is not another timber thread, this is a conversation between Cumulus and I about Say something and Timber. There's no need to hate on me. |
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Post by Rocky on Dec 20, 2013 20:01:27 GMT -5
Oh no this is turning into a "Timber" thread which I don't check anymore. I won't give up on these threads. Stop creating unnecessary drama. This is not another timber thread, this is a conversation between Cumulus and I about Say something and Timber. There's no need to hate on me. I didn't even mention that you are the problem... by |
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TylerG11
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Posts: 195
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Post by TylerG11 on Dec 20, 2013 20:10:51 GMT -5
With Billboard fiddling with the chart formula a lot in recent years, it can get confusing keeping track of what factors into the Hot 100 and in what proportions, so, just as a reminder, the number of times you post about a particular song going to #1 in the Hot 100 thread does not influence its chart position. This ^^^ ... Pretty much sums up the way I've been feeling reading this thread  P.S. Go Dark Horse. |
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Post by slicknickshady on Dec 20, 2013 20:18:16 GMT -5
I feel like Dark Horse isn't #1 material, it may hit top 5 but it just doesn't feel "big" like Roar or Teenage Dream or Firework etc This. Why are people counting out Say Something. Timber will be lucky to sneak in a week or two before Say Something dominated the hot 100. It's sales are far superior than any song and it's airplay still has ways to go. Streaming is also gaining massively for this song. Katy is going to have a hard time battling it. Voice and X-Factor are done now. |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Dec 20, 2013 20:38:47 GMT -5
I like when people argue/debate about songs. It's boring otherwise. Haaaaate Timber tho.
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Kris
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Posts: 2,222
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Post by Kris on Dec 20, 2013 20:49:41 GMT -5
I feel like Dark Horse isn't #1 material, it may hit top 5 but it just doesn't feel "big" like Roar or Teenage Dream or Firework etc This. Why are people counting out Say Something. Timber will be lucky to sneak in a week or two before Say Something dominated the hot 100. It's sales are far superior than any song and it's airplay still has ways to go. Streaming is also gaining massively for this song. Katy is going to have a hard time battling it. I feel like it's sales are due to the X Factor but I could be wrong, we'll see when the shows hype dies down. |
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charismatic
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Post by charismatic on Dec 20, 2013 22:27:21 GMT -5
Stop creating unnecessary drama. This is not another timber thread, this is a conversation between Cumulus and I about Say something and Timber. There's no need to hate on me. I didn't even mention that you are the problem... by Okay. Thanks for clearing that up. I thought you were talking about me 'cause every time somebody contradicts my opinion, you are the first one liking their comments, but don't ever take personal my opinions. ;) Personally, I like 'say something' and it has potential, but people also needs to accept that if Say something has topped itunes with less airplay than other songs is because SS has been performed several times in the biggest talent shows/Amas/Victoria. It has a big exposure too. |
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Post by josh on Dec 20, 2013 22:40:00 GMT -5
Timber was performed on the AMAs, X Factor, and other places, so it's not as if it's had no promo.
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Post by Old-school 72 on Dec 21, 2013 1:56:14 GMT -5
I would like to see Say Something take #1. Also in the future Pompeii by Bastille also would be cool #1.
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cumulus
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Post by cumulus on Dec 21, 2013 2:04:23 GMT -5
I'm not understanding the argument though. You make it seem like being at #1 on Itunes because of TV exposure is a bad thing? Yes SS was performed on TV, but so have most of the songs on the radio yet I don't see them flying to #1 after every performance.
And just so you know, The voice/ x-factor hype for Say Something has been long dead. I'm not even sure why you are bringing up The X Factor considering they released their own version to Itunes, so the benefit it gave the original duet was minimal.
The song is continued to be downloaded because it now has increased exposure on radio. Not because Timber had "an unlucky week." What a stupid analogy, really.
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Post by Rocky on Dec 21, 2013 7:31:34 GMT -5
1. EMINEM – The Monster f/Rihanna: 188.449 (+ 1.589)
2. ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 167.921 (+ 1.984)
3. IMAGINE DRAGONS – Demons: 163.876 (- 0.500)
4. AVICII – Wake Me Up: 151.518 (- 0.456)
5. LORDE – Royals: 138.988 (- 1.030)
6. PITBULL – Timber f/Ke$ha: 124.882 (+ 2.704)
7. DRAKE – Hold On We’re, Going Home: 120.239 (- 1.521)
8. PASSENGER – Let Her Go: 89.649 (+ 1.282) ▲
9. MILEY CYRUS – Wrecking Ball: 86.470 (- 2.058) ▼
10. ZEDD – Stay The Night f/H. Williams: 85.939 (+ 0.858)
11. KATY PERRY – Roar: 75.308 (- 0.633)
12. LADY GAGA – Do What U Want f/R. Kelly: 74.792 (+ 2.016) ▲
13. MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS – White Walls f/ScHoolboy Q: 72.343 (- 0.761) ▼
14. NEIGHBOURHOOD – Sweater Weather: 71.223 (+ 1.177)
15. ELLIE GOULDING – Burn: 70.178 (+ 2.429) ▲
16. KATY PERRY – Unconditionally: 67.039 (- 1.524) ▼
17. ELI YOUNG BAND – Drunk Last Night: 64.172 (+ 0.314) ▲
18. LADY GAGA – Applause: 63.492 (- 0.755) ▼
19. FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE – Stay: 63.476 (+ 1.023)
20. ZAC BROWN BAND – Sweet Annie: 59.830 (+ 1.029) ▲
LORDE – Team: 59.686 (+ 2.259)
JAY Z – Holy Grail f/Justin Timberlake: 59.211 (- 0.465)
ONE DIRECTION – Story Of My Life: 59.033 (+ 2.124)
DARIUS RUCKER – Radio: 57.932 (+ 0.138)
A GREAT BIG WORLD – Say Something w/C. Aguilera: 57.813 (+ 1.682)
THE BAND PERRY – Don’t Let Me Be Lonely: 57.139 (+ 0.744)
BASTILLE – Pompeii: 53.517 (+ 1.530)
ERIC PASLAY – Friday Night: 51.870 (+ 0.534)
COLE SWINDELL – Chillin’ It: 50.375 (+ 0.504)
LUKE BRYAN – Drink A Beer: 48.455 (+ 0.842)
CASSADEE POPE – Wasting All These Tears: 46.397 (+ 0.265)
MARIAH CAREY – All I Want For Christmas Is…: 48.231 (+ 0.922)
BRENDA LEE – Rockin’ Around The Christmas..: 41.088 (+ 0.779)
BURL IVES – Have A Holly Jolly Christmas: 39.605 (+ 0.640)
JASON ALDEAN – When She Says Baby: 39.430 (+ 0.530)
NAT KING COLE – The Christmas Song: 39.370 (- 0.315)
BOBBY HELMS – Jingle Bell Rock: 39.066 (+ 0.539)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Compass: 35.566 (+ 0.483)
KATY PERRY – Dark Horse: 33.951 (+ 1.982)
DANIELLE BRADBERY – The Heart Of Dixie: 26.926
DRAKE – The Language: 25.422 (+ 0.312)
BEYONCE – Drunk In Love f/Jay Z: 19.371 (+ 1.233)
BRITNEY SPEARS – Perfume: 19.171 (+ 0.209)
KELLY CLARKSON – Underneath The Tree: 17.554 (+ 0.361)
BRUNO MARS – Young Girls: 14.222 (+ 1.042)
DEMI LOVATO – Neon Lights: 11.042 (+ 0.316)
BEYONCE – XO: 8.635 (+ 1.782)
ED SHEERAN – I See Fire: 0.002
slay what u want
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Kris
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Post by Kris on Dec 21, 2013 7:33:42 GMT -5
Im actually really surprised at the One Direction updates after the failed radio success of every single one of their singles since WMYB. Also weird updates for the Monster, one day it seems like it's peaking next it is almost at 2M updates.
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