JamaicaFunk²
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Post by JamaicaFunk² on Aug 20, 2014 13:18:09 GMT -5
Yeah I don't think the 10 million radio audience from yesterday's audience will be enough for a debut, which is great cuz I want that number one debut!!!  Me too! And it's 10M from Mediabase which will likely be even less from BDS! It will have Monday AND Tuesday airplay configured into the Hot 100 debut this week. So it WILL indeed debut today/tomorrow. |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 20, 2014 13:21:26 GMT -5
As for singles, Taylor Swift's ultra-Pop track "Shake It Off," appears headed to the 425-450k range in its opening week. The first single from her previous album, Red, opened with 623k in August 2012. (8/20a) Ouch. With the airplay and streaming, that should still be enough to send it to #1 next week, but that's not the sales number they wanted. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:28:18 GMT -5
As for singles, Taylor Swift's ultra-Pop track "Shake It Off," appears headed to the 425-450k range in its opening week. The first single from her previous album, Red, opened with 623k in August 2012. (8/20a) Ouch. With the airplay and streaming, that should still be enough to send it to #1 next week, but that's not the sales number they wanted. Kworb says 665k, but I know that's not supposed to be entirely accurate. I still feel like it will get at least 500k, not 425-450k. It's still selling more than twice as much as AATB which will surely sell more than 250k this week. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 20, 2014 13:32:16 GMT -5
In this market, 425-450k is fantastic.
It's not 2012 anymore.
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Aug 20, 2014 13:33:32 GMT -5
Gary Trust building suspense as usual...  lol |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:35:20 GMT -5
A three-way tie in chart points between the chart's top three titles?
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 20, 2014 13:36:26 GMT -5
Ouch. With the airplay and streaming, that should still be enough to send it to #1 next week, but that's not the sales number they wanted. Kworb says 665k, but I know that's not supposed to be entirely accurate. I still feel like it will get at least 500k, not 425-450k. It's still selling more than twice as much as AATB which will surely sell more than 250k this week. Not sure how he calculated 665, because it was barely pacing for that much on day one, and it's obviously not going to keep that pace for the rest of the week. If we assume AATB is 250-300 and selling at a reasonably steady volume, it did 40K yesterday. Based on the Kworb data, Shake it Off MAYBE sold like 110K yesterday. Let's say another 50-60K monday, so it was probably in the 170-180K range at the end of Tuesday. What reason should we have to believe it sells another 500K copies in the next 5 days? It's not going to sell at the same rate it did Tuesday... |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 20, 2014 13:37:57 GMT -5
In this market, 425-450k is fantastic. It's not 2012 anymore. Ariana Grande did 438K a few months ago with hype from the Disney Awards special but considerably less publicity and airplay. If Taylor Swift can't outsell Ariana Grande... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:39:39 GMT -5
Kworb says 665k, but I know that's not supposed to be entirely accurate. I still feel like it will get at least 500k, not 425-450k. It's still selling more than twice as much as AATB which will surely sell more than 250k this week. Not sure how he calculated 665, because it was barely pacing for that much on day one, and it's obviously not going to keep that pace for the rest of the week. If we assume AATB is 250-300 and selling at a reasonably steady volume, it did 40K yesterday. Based on the Kworb data, Shake it Off MAYBE sold like 110K yesterday. Let's say another 50-60K monday, so it was probably in the 170-180K range at the end of Tuesday. What reason should we have to believe it sells another 500K copies in the next 5 days? It's not going to sell at the same rate it did Tuesday... I guess Kworb's site doesn't account for trends and it only uses a model based on week-to-date sales, not accounting for the decline that will occur later in the week. Hopefully the decline won't be too severe such that she can get half a million sales this week... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:40:40 GMT -5
Ouch. With the airplay and streaming, that should still be enough to send it to #1 next week, but that's not the sales number they wanted. Kworb says 665k, but I know that's not supposed to be entirely accurate. I still feel like it will get at least 500k, not 425-450k. It's still selling more than twice as much as AATB which will surely sell more than 250k this week. Also, doesn't Billboard tend to guess conservatively in the beginning of the week? I wouldn't at all be surprised if SIO (or rather, Billboard's estimates) trended upward. I don't think I see it matching WANEGBT's opening numbers though, if for no other reason than that she was bound to lose a few country fans who are just not here for pure-pop Taylor. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:45:22 GMT -5
Kworb says 665k, but I know that's not supposed to be entirely accurate. I still feel like it will get at least 500k, not 425-450k. It's still selling more than twice as much as AATB which will surely sell more than 250k this week. Also, doesn't Billboard tend to guess conservatively in the beginning of the week? I wouldn't at all be surprised if SIO (or rather, Billboard's estimates) trended upward. I don't think I see it matching WANEGBT's opening numbers though, if for no other reason than that she was bound to lose a few country fans who are just not here for pure-pop Taylor. But she builds more pop based fans, which are a much larger demographic! ;P so it's a very good marketing strategy I think! And I would like to see 500-550k at least for sure! And didn't Billboard say in an earlier article that SIO is set to sell 500k? |
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Aug 20, 2014 13:45:26 GMT -5
Kworb says 665k, but I know that's not supposed to be entirely accurate. I still feel like it will get at least 500k, not 425-450k. It's still selling more than twice as much as AATB which will surely sell more than 250k this week. Also, doesn't Billboard tend to guess conservatively in the beginning of the week? I wouldn't at all be surprised if SIO (or rather, Billboard's estimates) trended upward. I don't think I see it matching WANEGBT's opening numbers though, if for no other reason than that she was bound to lose a few country fans who are just not here for pure-pop Taylor. Well, Billboard said 500K in its initial update; the 425-450K is a new figure from Hits. The Hits estimates can be hit or miss (although they have greatly improved in accuracy over the last year or so), because they're very vague about their information well. Sometimes they'll look at actual sales data. Sometimes they'll cite "industry sources." But the fact that it's trended downward from day one is not a good sign. It is, however, one that should have been expected. As I wrote in the CHR thread, this really would have needed to have like a 1:0.2 day one advantage on AATB to be in the mix for a WANEGBT type bow. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Aug 20, 2014 13:47:52 GMT -5
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Aug 20, 2014 13:51:49 GMT -5
Gary Trust building suspense as usual... lol Iggy Azalea having 3 Top 10s or Ariana having 3 Top 10s or BOTH being in the Top 10 with 3 songs together?! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:52:28 GMT -5
^ Cruise looks like it will pass 7 million in 2-3 weeks time
And TIHWR will pass 2 million in 2 weeks. Florida-Georgia Line are the gods of country digital sales!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:53:37 GMT -5
Rude still #1! well, sorry Sam Smith...maybe next time! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:53:46 GMT -5
Also, doesn't Billboard tend to guess conservatively in the beginning of the week? I wouldn't at all be surprised if SIO (or rather, Billboard's estimates) trended upward. I don't think I see it matching WANEGBT's opening numbers though, if for no other reason than that she was bound to lose a few country fans who are just not here for pure-pop Taylor. Well, Billboard said 500K in its initial update; the 425-450K is a new figure from Hits. The Hits estimates can be hit or miss (although they have greatly improved in accuracy over the last year or so), because they're very vague about their information well. Sometimes they'll look at actual sales data. Sometimes they'll cite "industry sources." But the fact that it's trended downward from day one is not a good sign. It is, however, one that should have been expected. As I wrote in the CHR thread, this really would have needed to have like a 1:0.2 day one advantage on AATB to be in the mix for a WANEGBT type bow. ah, ok. I mistakenly thought the 425-450k estimate was from BB. FWIW I dug through WANEGBT's singles thread and found that Billboard initially predicted a 450-500k debut for it. So it's not impossible that Billboard is underestimating SIO. But as has been pointed out SIO is seemingly already following a different sales pattern from WANEGBT. |
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Aug 20, 2014 13:53:51 GMT -5
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Carlitoz
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Post by Carlitoz on Aug 20, 2014 13:53:58 GMT -5
Gary Trust building suspense as usual... lol Maybe there are three artists with two or more singles in the the top ten. Ariana, Iggy, Sam and perhaps even XCX. Maybe even Minaj! That would make it 5 artists! Since I don't know if Latch would still be there, I would leave my guess on 4: ARIANA, IGGY, CHARLI AND NICKI. |
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Aug 20, 2014 13:54:39 GMT -5
Ariana Grande, Iggy Azalea Triple Up In Hot 100's Top 10, MAGIC! Still No. 1While 'Rude' rules for a sixth week, Grande and Azalea infuse the top 10 with three hits apiece, including new top 10s 'Break Free' and 'Black Widow' MAGIC!'s pop/reggae smash "Rude" leads the Billboard Hot 100 for a sixth week, narrowly fending off Meghan Trainor's "All About That Bass," which surges 4-2 and takes over atop the Streaming Songs chart. Plus, Ariana Grande's "Break Free" and Iggy Azalea's "Black Widow" soar into the top 10, granting both artists a rarity of three songs each in the region. Meanwhile, get ready for Taylor Swift's new "Shake It Off" to challenge for the top spot on next week's Hot 100. (Read on …) Let's dig right into the numbers behind a busy new Hot 100, as we do each Wednesday. "Rude" again maintains its hold atop the Hot 100 despite not leading any of the chart's main component lists that rank airplay, sales and streaming. Even though it's not No. 1 in any main measurement, it continues to show strong numbers overall. "Rude" holds at No. 2 on Radio Songs (which it led for a week) with 161 million all-format audience impressions, down 3 percent, according to Nielsen BDS. It also keeps at No. 2 on On-Demand Songs (2.9 million, down 3 percent), which it led for three weeks. It drops from its No. 2 peak on Streaming Songs to No. 4 (7.7 million U.S. streams, down 7 percent) and falls 5-7 on Digital Songs with 104,000 downloads sold (down 15 percent) in the week ending Aug. 17, according to Nielsen SoundScan; it crowned Digital Songs for three weeks. Trainor's "Bass" blasts 4-2 as the Hot 100's top Digital and Airplay Gainer and vaults 5-1 on Streaming Songs, up by 32 percent to 8.1 million. The newcomer's doo-wop/pop hit rules Digital Songs for a second week with 239,000 sold, up 21 percent. "Bass" extends its record for the most consecutive weeks winning the Digital Gainer award to five. In its second week on Radio Songs, the track charges 45-24 (47 million, up 64 percent). With "Rude" down by 7 percent in overall Hot 100 points and "Bass" up by a hefty 29 percent, the latter should be ready to overtake the former next week. The uncertainty is whether Swift's "Shake" will bypass it and block it from the top. (Keep reading …) As "Bass" jumps, Sam Smith's "Stay With Me" dips to No. 3 after two weeks at its No. 2 Hot 100 high. It remains the most-heard song in the U.S. (in the week ending Aug. 19), logging a second week at No. 1 on Radio Songs (175 million, up 1 percent). "Stay" collects a third week atop On-Demand Songs (3.1 million, down 4 percent), while descending 4-5 on Digital Songs (105,000, down 15 percent; it led the list for two weeks last month) and 4-8 on Streaming Songs (6.1 million, down 3 percent). Two songs rocket into the Hot 100's top 10, both by artists who've made themselves quite at home in the region in recent weeks. Grande's "Break Free," featuring Zedd, flies 18-4, capturing top Streaming Gainer kudos and powering 28-3 on Streaming Songs with a 187 percent increase to 7.9 million following the Aug. 12 premiere of its official video. It also roars 14-4 on Digital Songs (116,000, up 54 percent) and 15-12 on Radio Songs (59 million, up 7 percent). Meanwhile, Azalea's "Black Widow," featuring Rita Ora, snares a 15-8 advance on the Hot 100, likewise leaping after the arrival of its video (on Aug. 13). The collab climbs 40-7 on Streaming Songs (6.1 million, up 155 percent), 7-3 on Digital Songs (125,000, up 17 percent) and 26-20 on Radio Songs (50 million, up 14 percent). The ascents make it three songs apiece for Grande and Azalea in the Hot 100's top 10 this week. The pair's team-up, "Problem," falls 6-7 (after reaching No. 2 for five weeks); Azalea's former seven-week No. 1 "Fancy," featuring Charli XCX, slides 3-5; and, Grande's diva-off with Jessie J and Nicki Minaj, "Bang Bang," slips 9-10 (although up by 3 percent in overall chart points). How rare is it for female artists to lock up three top 10 spots simultaneously? Grande and Azalea join only Adele and Ashanti in achieving the feat. Adele did so with "Set Fire to the Rain," "Rolling in the Deep" and "Someone Like You" (Nos. 2, 5, and 7, respectively) on the March 3, 2012, chart, while Ashanti tripled up with her own "Foolish" and two featured roles, on Ja Rule's "Always on Time" and Fat Joe's "Wut's Luv?," for two weeks in 2002. Grande, thus, joins Adele as the only women to monopolize three top 10 ranks simultaneously as a lead artist. Beyond only women, an act claiming at least three top 10 spots on the Hot 100 at the same time is scarce. The others: the Beatles logged a record five for two weeks (April 4, 11) in 1964; 50 Cent and T-Pain each scored as many as four top 10s at a time; and Akon, the Bee Gees, Chris Brown, Lil Wayne and Usher have each tallied three, bringing the total to just 12 acts upon the additions of Grande and Azalea this week. Notably, this week marks the first time in the Hot 100's 56-year history that two acts each triple up in the Hot 100's top 10 simultaneously. More Grande- and Azalea-related honors: With "Free," Zedd scores his highest Hot 100 rank, surpassing the No. 8 peak of his own "Clarity," featuring Foxes, last year. "Widow," meanwhile, marks Ora's first top 10. She debuted with the No. 62-peaking "How We Do (Party)" in 2012; she also pushes 90-83 this week with her own "I Will Never Let You Down." If you read the fine print (literally, in Billboard magazine, where songwriters show on the Hot 100), you'll notice that Katy Perry adds to her Hot 100 top count, as she's one of the six writers of "Widow"; Perry originally considered it for her album Prism before she gave a demo of it to Azalea to finish. The only other Hot 100 top 10 boasting a Perry writing credit but not artist billing? The cast of Fox's Glee sent its cover of her 2010 No. 1 "Teenage Dream" to No. 8 later that year. (Perry has co-written all 13 of her top 10s as an artist.) Rounding out the Hot 100's top 10, Nico & Vinz's "Am I Wrong" drops 5-6 (after reaching No. 4) and Sia's "Chandelier" backtracks to No. 9 from its No. 8 high, although up 8 percent in points. The most exciting action on next week's Hot 100 might belong to a song not yet on the chart: Swift's "Shake It Off." The song barely misses this week's list, fueled by its first two days of airplay; still, it enters Radio Songs at No. 45 with 29 million in all-format audience. Because the Hot 100's sales and streaming tracking weeks run Monday through Sunday, while airplay covers a Wednesday-Tuesday schedule, only the song's airplay counts toward this week's Hot 100; next week, once sales and streaming join the mix, "Shake" should battle for No. 1. With industry sources suggesting that the high-energy lead single from 1989 (due Oct. 27) could debut with 425,000-450,000 downloads sold, Swift could shake all the way to No. 1 next week. We'll find out the next winner on the Hot 100 a week from today. www.billboard.com/articles/news/6221978/hot-100-ariana-grande-iggy-azalea-top-10-magic
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Kurt
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Post by Kurt on Aug 20, 2014 13:58:31 GMT -5
1. Rude (0)
2. All About That Bass (+2)
3. Stay With Me (-1)
4. Break Free (+14)
5. Fancy (-2)
6. Am I Wrong (-1)
7. Problem (-1)
8. Black Widow (+7)
9. Chandelier (-1)
10. Bang Bang (-1)
83. I Will Never Let You Down (+7)
N/A. Shake It Off
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 13:58:48 GMT -5
So I was right that Taylor wouldn't debut this week! Hopefully this means that she will debut at #1 next week!!! Mr. Thonk Eyes |
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Aug 20, 2014 14:01:39 GMT -5
YYYYAAAAASSSSSSS!!!!!!! Get that number one debut Tay Tay!!!!!!! |
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Aug 20, 2014 14:02:35 GMT -5
Well we know who will be the #1 and #2 Artists on the Hot 100 Year End List this year. WORK WORK WORK WORK
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 14:06:20 GMT -5
Maps is out wtf :(
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Fancy
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Post by Fancy on Aug 20, 2014 14:08:01 GMT -5
kind of bittersweet because boom clap fell this week but all that matters is stay with me is not number one and ari and iggy are dominating everything.
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Aug 20, 2014 14:21:28 GMT -5
It recently fell out of the top ten on iTunes, that may have to do with it |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2014 14:25:20 GMT -5
It recently fell out of the top ten on iTunes, that may have to do with it It's still climbing very steadily on radio though :( |
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Mr. Thonk Eyes
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Post by Mr. Thonk Eyes on Aug 20, 2014 14:29:41 GMT -5
It recently fell out of the top ten on iTunes, that may have to do with it It's still climbing very steadily on radio though :( IDK the streaming numbers for Maps but they must not be that high either  |
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Aug 20, 2014 14:30:27 GMT -5
Most of the songs in the 11-20 range seem like bigger hits than many in the top 10 right now-- is it just me or the chart's sampling frame becoming increasingly limited to twinks and tweens?
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