House Lannister
6x Platinum Member
Would be Twitcher/YouTuber
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,522 
|
Post by House Lannister on Jul 4, 2015 19:07:38 GMT -5
It looks like you didn't include the trailer's views in that estimation, since the trailer + official video's views come to just over 20 million globally, and I assume more than half of those would be from the US. Since the trailer is categorized as "Music" and includes some of the song's original audio, I think there's at least a chance those views will be included in its streaming total. Would it be possible to get an estimation from you with the trailer's views included? Just to see a best-case scenario? Ah, I just noticed the trailer got the content ID monetization claim, so unlike my initial supposition it probably will count. In that case, the possible final estimate for U.S. views is in the ballpark of 13,000,000 by Monday. This could mean a point total around 21,700, which could be a top 10, though most likely not even close to top 5. Late to the party and saw that the original video (when did that finally come out?) has over 25 million views on VEVO as of Saturday evening. I'd guess by Monday, the US streaming number may be at least 15 million, if not more. Worst case scenario, BBHMM does a Can't Feel My Face and jumps from 28 to 14 or so. Best case scenario, it flirts with a top 10. |
|
imbondz
2x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2006
Posts: 2,613
|
Post by imbondz on Jul 4, 2015 19:11:44 GMT -5
Best case scenario it falls out of the top 100
|
|
felipe
3x Platinum Member
Joined: January 2009
Posts: 3,058
|
Post by felipe on Jul 4, 2015 20:09:13 GMT -5
Ah, I just noticed the trailer got the content ID monetization claim What's that? |
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Jul 4, 2015 20:18:19 GMT -5
It is an effort (either automatically through YouTube's audial fingerprints or manually by the label) to identify songs used in a YouTube video. Once a song is identified, a disclaimer is added to the description giving links to buy the song from various sources and the video (I'm relatively sure) contributes to the song's streaming totals as tracked by Nielson SoundScan.
Oh, and less relevant to this topic, it enable ads that generate revenue for the label (hence monetization claim) or, if ads are enabled, redirects it to the claiming label. Of course, in this case, it goes to the label either way, but with that distinguisher comes the confirmation that it contributes to Streaming points, hence why it's important.
|
|
|
|
Post by squirrelgate on Jul 4, 2015 20:39:57 GMT -5
I just noticed that if Lean On holds at #13 this week it will have a 13 across the board (position, last week, peak, and weeks)
|
|
|
|
Post by Mikel Echarri on Jul 5, 2015 2:42:01 GMT -5
I just noticed that if Lean On holds at #13 this week it will have a 13 across the board (position, last week, peak, and weeks) Like Stay With Me, #10, #10 the previous week, peak #10 and 10 weeks on the chart  |
|
THINKIN BOUT YOU
Platinum Member
a good-looking gay man
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 1,364
|
Post by THINKIN BOUT YOU on Jul 5, 2015 4:44:52 GMT -5
How long do you think "see you again" can be staying in top 10? 10 more weeks? (I hope fewer than that..)
|
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Jul 5, 2015 6:27:02 GMT -5
Assuming shane wasn't one of the following last night:
-Drunk from a fourth of July party (I hate to theorize this, but I couldn't help but notice his sloppier than usual spelling and grammar)
-Someone else who hijacked the account (alternate explanation for the different writing conventions)
-Fatigued or stressed from his cross-country move
...then I'll do kworb radio highlights daily if I can. Now, I don't know an efficient way to pull the whole top 75 like he used to, but Daniel's Mediabase updates are quite meaty, so my highlights will focus on the following:
-Songs bubbling under with notable gains
-Notable gains or losses in the top 75
-Format additions/drops
As a practice, here's how the 7/4/15 would look:
Ballooning Up
Cheerleader and Can't Feel My Face continue nice gains, with the latter moving almost 3M more impressions and the former 2M. Girl Crush also gains a respectable 1.4M to move up a slot to #27. Newly picked up by Adult Contemporary, Worth It climbs 2 slots to #12. In a curious early adoption, Fetty Wap's new My Way nears the top 50 with a 1.1M gain today.
Past the Peak
Two country tracks lead the charge of the plummeters: Little Toy Guns and Diamonds Rings and Old Barstools, both losing over 3M. Guns is still in the top 50 on the Hot 100, so expect a sharp dropoff for it in the next 2 weeks. Continuing their decline, Love Me Like You Mean It and sleeper hit Budapest take 2.4M losses, crashing 3 positions each. It seems with My Way's pickup, Trap Queen is getting dropped faster, with a 1.8M hit today. Similarly, with The Weeknd having a new top 10, Earned It hemorrhages 2.8M audience, though it too is still in the radio top 10. After losing the Urban Adult Contemporary format, See You Again suffers a 2.4M loss.
Surfacing Zone
Cool for the Summer, Demi Lovato's new single, is quickly gaining radio, nabbing 3.4M more to total 20.1M so far. Currently, the only supporter is Pop radio.
Cheyenne, Jason Derulo's latest, is getting some gradual support, .8M added today for a 6M total. Both Pop and Rhythmic are on board currently.
|
|
Gary
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2014
Posts: 45,891
|
Post by Gary on Jul 5, 2015 9:26:32 GMT -5
one day you'll be posting my stats on this site & be wishing you treated me better im a loving person cant u see but im outa here adios lil amigos's much love xoxo shaneo romero Just curious. What stats are actually yours? Aren't you copying "Kworb's" site? |
|
rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
|
Post by rimetm on Jul 5, 2015 10:01:06 GMT -5
7/5/15
Ballooning Up
Can't Feel My Face continues its gains with 3.2M while Cheerleader slows, only gaining .8M. Now in the top 75 is Cool for the Summer, zooming 4.5M. Up 2 positions is Fight Song at #15, gaining 1.5M.
Past the Peak
See You Again regains Urban Adult Contemporary, but still loses an astounding 3.7M audience. Off the top 10 is Earned It (losing 4.8M audience despite also gaining Latin Urban) and returning is Uptown Funk losing 1.1M. In general, thanks to July 4th, most songs had unusually large losses. Also consistently dropping are Guns (-3.6M), Diamond Rings (-2.9M), Budapest (-2.4M), and Mean It (-2.2M). Slow Motion is also now crashing 2.2M audience.
No major gains outside of the top 75.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 11:19:36 GMT -5
I just noticed that if Lean On holds at #13 this week it will have a 13 across the board (position, last week, peak, and weeks) Like Stay With Me, #10, #10 the previous week, peak #10 and 10 weeks on the chart  So did Don't by Ed Sheeran. #17 in all 4 areas. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 11:56:24 GMT -5
Like Stay With Me, #10, #10 the previous week, peak #10 and 10 weeks on the chart So did Don't by Ed Sheeran. #17 in all 4 areas. Animals by Martin Garrix had 26's across the board, I remember. |
|
ry4n
7x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2014
Posts: 7,248
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by ry4n on Jul 5, 2015 12:38:05 GMT -5
+ the handful of songs that started their chart runs 2-2- |
|
crystalphnx
Platinum Member
Joined: December 2010
Posts: 1,500
|
Post by crystalphnx on Jul 5, 2015 12:56:27 GMT -5
So did Don't by Ed Sheeran. #17 in all 4 areas. Speaking of Ed, he also had this happen (which is a bit different than what you'd been discussing, but still pretty amusing): 2 2 2 22 Thinking Out Loud, Ed Sheeran 2 |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 17:37:13 GMT -5
+ the handful of songs that started their chart runs 2-2- and songs that debuted at #1 |
|
|
|
Post by squirrelgate on Jul 5, 2015 18:19:45 GMT -5
I know a lot of us hate to acknowledge this possibility but I think Watch Me will make it to the top 5 this week. It had a music video debut, plus several smaller semi-viral videos and it's actually gained in sales while pretty much everything else has dropped.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 18:21:26 GMT -5
Like Stay With Me, #10, #10 the previous week, peak #10 and 10 weeks on the chart So did Don't by Ed Sheeran. #17 in all 4 areas. Scream by Usher had all 10s, Dont Wake Me Up by Chris Brown had all 14s, Give Your Heart a Break by Demi Lovato had all 18s, theres plenty more |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 18:28:25 GMT -5
I know a lot of us hate to acknowledge this possibility but I think Watch Me will make it to the top 5 this week. It had a music video debut, plus several smaller semi-viral videos and it's actually gained in sales while pretty much everything else has dropped. Thankfully it's been getting many consecutive dark reds on the iTunes pop bars and is probably down to #3 now with The Weeknd at #2. I hope that viral spike doesn't last too long...but yes you're right that it is quite possible that it will make the top 5 this coming week. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 18:31:39 GMT -5
Cant Feel My Face better not hit Number 1 before Cheerleader, Cheerleader needs to be Number 1 before Cant Feel My Face takes over, if it ever does, Idk why everyone likes that overrated Weeknd song, both Weeknd songs are overrated, also Classic Man is coming for that Number 1 spot in near future as well, so we will see what ends up happening
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 18:41:58 GMT -5
CFMF will not be #1 before Cheerleader. It still has a lot of catching up to do in airplay and sales.
|
|
crystalphnx
Platinum Member
Joined: December 2010
Posts: 1,500
|
Post by crystalphnx on Jul 5, 2015 18:51:09 GMT -5
Idk...isn't the tone here about "Watch Me" a tad dramatic? I don't plan on ever downloading it myself, but there's nothing so offensive about it that I "hate" the sight of it doing well. Is there something homophobic, or something making light of rape in the lyrics that I'm not aware of? Ya know...something actually offensive about it, other than it just not being your cup of tea?
I know this is basically the glass half empty VS half full cliche, but instead of going on about the 1-2 songs in the Top 10 that I'm not that into, I think it's pretty cool that I enjoy the other 8-9 songs that are doing really well right now. Sure, I'd be bummed if it ended up blocking something I really like from hitting No. 1, or if it was only in the Top 10 strictly because of some Soko-esque-questionable-streaming, but I don't get why it's so unbearable to see it inside the Top 10 at all. Does the Hot 100 Top 10 really need to 100% match your personal taste in music?
|
|
|
|
Post by squirrelgate on Jul 5, 2015 18:58:18 GMT -5
Oh, I totally agree. I don't hate Watch Me. I was trying to spark some discussion on it because people here seem to totally ignore it just because they don't like it.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 19:13:18 GMT -5
CFMF will not be #1 before Cheerleader. It still has a lot of catching up to do in airplay and sales. CFMF already caught up in airplay... thats why I am worried |
|
House Lannister
6x Platinum Member
Would be Twitcher/YouTuber
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,522
|
Post by House Lannister on Jul 5, 2015 19:13:58 GMT -5
I know a lot of us hate to acknowledge this possibility but I think Watch Me will make it to the top 5 this week. It had a music video debut, plus several smaller semi-viral videos and it's actually gained in sales while pretty much everything else has dropped. Maybe. But unless something dramatic happens, it will probably peak there. It won't go higher. Not with Cheerleader and Can't Feel My Face ahead of it. And not with Hey Mama, Fight Song, Lean On, Where Are U Now, and Worth It closing in. But at least the song is clean. |
|
ry4n
7x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2014
Posts: 7,248
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him
|
Post by ry4n on Jul 5, 2015 22:55:09 GMT -5
+ the handful of songs that started their chart runs 2-2- and songs that debuted at #1 They don't have a "1" in the Last Week column though |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2015 23:08:16 GMT -5
and songs that debuted at #1 They don't have a "1" in the Last Week column though  |
|
Kworb
5x Platinum Member
Tiziano <3
Joined: June 2005
Posts: 5,268
|
Post by Kworb on Jul 6, 2015 7:28:54 GMT -5
Sales estimates 1. Cheerleader 156,000 2. Can't Feel My Face 115,000 3. Watch Me 114,000 4. Fight Song 113,000 5. Bad Blood 113,000 6. Honey, I'm Good. 81,000 7. Good For You 78,000 8. 679 77,000 9. Shut Up And Dance 74,000 10. Cool For The Summer 74,000 11. Lean On 69,000 12. See You Again 69,000 13. Where Are Ü Now 68,000 14. Trap Queen 67,000 15. All Eyes On You 64,000 16. The Hills 60,000 17. Worth It 58,000 18. Kick The Dust Up 53,000 19. Hey Mama 53,000 20. Girl Crush 52,000 kworb.net/ccThese estimates assume an overall sales drop of 10% due to the release of Apple Music. This is nothing but a wild guess. |
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2015 8:11:02 GMT -5
Cant Feel My Face better not hit Number 1 before Cheerleader, Cheerleader needs to be Number 1 before Cant Feel My Face takes over, if it ever does, Idk why everyone likes that overrated Weeknd song, both Weeknd songs are overrated, also Classic Man is coming for that Number 1 spot in near future as well, so we will see what ends up happening "Classic Man" will not hit #1, I'm not even too sure if it'll hit the top 10, but that's as far as it might go. |
|
Kris
2x Platinum Member
Joined: June 2013
Posts: 2,222
|
Post by Kris on Jul 6, 2015 12:53:50 GMT -5
anyways
TOP 10
1. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 187.299 (- 2.914)
2. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 184.712 (+ 0.575)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 169.060 (- 0.695)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 131.503 (- 1.798)
5. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 128.930 (+ 1.470)
6. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 110.048 (+ 2.394) ▲
7. OMI - Cheerleader: 109.104 (+ 1.453) ▲
8. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 108.675 (- 0.053) ▼
9. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 96.817 (- 0.416)
10. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 88.436 (- 1.283)
11. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 84.018 (- 3.064)
12. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 81.062 (- 1.240)
13. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 80.903 (+ 1.108)
14. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 75.293 (- 0.856)
15. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 74.778 (+ 1.221) ▲
16. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 73.341 (- 1.498) ▼
17. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 72.698 (+ 1.217)
18. BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 71.561 (+ 0.104)
19. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 67.820 (+ 0.946) ▲
20. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 67.476 (- 1.221) ▼
CURIOSIDADES
JASON ALDEAN - Tonight Looks Good On You: 66.745 (+ 0.976)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 64.104 (+ 0.287)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 61.707 (+ 0.317)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 60.651 (+ 0.428)
CANAAN SMITH - Love You Like That: 57.657 (+ 0.899)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 55.362 (+ 0.424)
JIDENNA - Classic Man: 52.348 (+ 1.525)
LUKE BRYAN - Kick The Dust Up: 45.095 (+ 0.725)
SILENTO - Watch Me: 41.612 (+ 1.377)
FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 37.897 (+ 0.243)
SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 33.103 (+ 0.865)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 31.872 (+ 0.282)
DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 31.635 (+ 5.516)
SAGE THE GEMINI - Good Thing f/Nick Jonas: 21.208 (+ 0.545)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 18.606 (- 0.106)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 13.653 (+ 1.026)
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 12.632 (- 0.058)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 11.462 (+ 0.461)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 11.156 (+ 0.311)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 11.124 (+ 1.718)
BECK - Dreams: 9.248 (+ 0.005)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 4.749 (+ 0.087)
TOVE LO - Timebomb: 2.051 (+ 0.167)
AUSTIN MAHONE - Dirty Work: 1.465 (+ 0.119)
|
|
Ravi
Charting
Joined: February 2015
Posts: 420
|
Post by Ravi on Jul 6, 2015 13:11:30 GMT -5
Sales estimates 1. Cheerleader 156,000 2. Can't Feel My Face 115,000 3. Watch Me 114,000 4. Fight Song 113,000 5. Bad Blood 113,000 6. Honey, I'm Good. 81,000 7. Good For You 78,000 8. 679 77,000 9. Shut Up And Dance 74,000 10. Cool For The Summer 74,000 11. Lean On 69,000 12. See You Again 69,000 13. Where Are Ü Now 68,000 14. Trap Queen 67,000 15. All Eyes On You 64,000 16. The Hills 60,000 17. Worth It 58,000 18. Kick The Dust Up 53,000 19. Hey Mama 53,000 20. Girl Crush 52,000 kworb.net/ccThese estimates assume an overall sales drop of 10% due to the release of Apple Music. This is nothing but a wild guess. For a second there I was like.... WTF!! I don't think sales would be impacted that much.... but like you said.... wild guess... |
|
