Billboard Hot 100: 07/18/15

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 07/02/15

1. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 197.342 (- 0.627)
2. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 182.016 (+ 0.981)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 172.921 (- 0.376)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 138.232 (- 2.332)
5. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 124.136 (+ 1.003)
6. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 107.947 (+ 2.662)
7. OMI - Cheerleader: 102.021 (+ 2.861) ▲
8. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 99.627 (- 1.176) ▼
9. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 97.928 (+ 3.151) ▲
10. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 96.503 (- 2.342) ▼
11. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 92.114 (+ 0.062)
12. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 86.047 (- 0.718)
13. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 77.274 (- 0.150) ▲
14. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 76.735 (+ 1.481) ▲
15. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 76.374 (- 3.623) ▼
16. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 73.166 (- 0.073) ▲
17. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 73.041 (- 0.920) ▼
18. BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 70.384 (+ 0362)
19. MAROON 5 - This Summer's Gonna Hurt...: 67.700 (- 1.473)
20. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 68.068 (- 0.614)

RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 67.015 (+ 1.492)
SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 65.101 (+ 0.745)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 61.093 (+ 0.528)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 60.890 (+ 0.237)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 57.465 (+ 0.848)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 55.296 (- 0.507)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 52.416 (+ 1.027)
SIA - Elastic Heart: 51.434 (- 0.182)
JIDENNA - Classic Man: 48.303 (+ 1.105)
LUKE BRYAN - Kick The Dust Up: 43.436 (+ 0.388)
SILENTO - Watch Me: 38.297 (+ 1.352)
FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 34.595 (+ 0.996)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 29.558 (+ 0.664)
SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 29.208 (+ 0.758)
SAGE THE GEMINI - Good Thing f/Nick Jonas: 19.041 (+ 0.490)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 18.745 (+ 0.318)
DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 14.024 (+ 14.013)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 12.565 (- 0.286)
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 12.359 (+ 0.284)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 10.132 (+ 0.445)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 9.532 (+ 0.223)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 9.186 (+ 1.650)
BECK - Dreams: 9.091 (+ 0.260)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 4.166 (+ 0.059)
PHARRELL WILLIAMS - Freedom: 0.093

[Mikel Echarri]

Bad Blood is peaking on radio... Let's get that #1!!

[Deleted]

Who has a prediction for the debut of CFTS?

[Deleted]

Jul 2, 2015 8:03:39 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

Who has a prediction for the debut of CFTS?

i'd say around where GFY debuted this past week

[ry4n]

Is this the last chart before the tracking week change?

[Daniel Collins]

Jul 2, 2015 8:16:26 GMT -5 ry4n said:

Is this the last chart before the tracking week change?

Yes.

The shift in the sales tracking week related to the new global release date will result in adjustments to when our charts, and charts-based editorial content, will be finalized and presented on Billboard.com. All charts will be refreshed each Tuesday morning on Billboard.com starting July 14 (as opposed to the current Thursday). As has historically been the case, Billboard's charts are post-dated to the second Saturday following online posting (now 11 days later). So, charts that go live on Tuesday, July 14, will be dated July 25.

[ry4n]

So the July 18th chart is the 11-day week then?

If I understand this correctly, then the chart dated July 25 will reflect sales/streams from June 29 through July 9; which would mean they'd skip over the chart dated July 18th entirely. And there will be no chart posted at all next week.

[Dylan :)]

Worth It should be #13 tomorrow! If continues around +1.5M until Wednesday, it could get to #11 next week (#10 if Uptown Funk falls faster!)

[Daniel Collins]

Jul 2, 2015 9:05:24 GMT -5 ry4n said:

So the July 18th chart is the 11-day week then?

If I understand this correctly, then the chart dated July 14 will reflect sales/streams from June 29 through July 9; which would mean they'd skip over the chart dated July 18th entirely. And there will be no chart posted at all next week.

(The final charts utilizing sales data from a Monday to Sunday cycle (June 29 through July 5) will post on Billboard.com on Thursday, July 9, and will be dated July 18.

To account for sales in the in-between days during the transition week to a Friday to Thursday schedule, Nielsen Music will process data incorporating an 11-day cycle [Monday, June 29, through Thursday, July 9]. That 11-day period will inform the Billboard charts that will post on Billboard.com on Tuesday, July 14, and be dated July 25. The pure sales data from the 11-day stretch will be the only data stored historically when accounting for all-time sales according to Nielsen Music; thus, there will be no double-counting, per se, of sales in Nielsen Music's tracking system for this period in its archived database.)

Wait. There's no double counting but June 29- July 5 would be used twice. This is confusing.

[ry4n]

Jul 2, 2015 9:19:44 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Jul 2, 2015 9:05:24 GMT -5 ry4n said:

So the July 18th chart is the 11-day week then?

If I understand this correctly, then the chart dated July 14 will reflect sales/streams from June 29 through July 9; which would mean they'd skip over the chart dated July 18th entirely. And there will be no chart posted at all next week.

(The final charts utilizing sales data from a Monday to Sunday cycle (June 29 through July 5) will post on Billboard.com on Thursday, July 9, and will be dated July 18.

To account for sales in the in-between days during the transition week to a Friday to Thursday schedule, Nielsen Music will process data incorporating an 11-day cycle [Monday, June 29, through Thursday, July 9]. That 11-day period will inform the Billboard charts that will post on Billboard.com on Tuesday, July 14, and be dated July 25. The pure sales data from the 11-day stretch will be the only data stored historically when accounting for all-time sales according to Nielsen Music; thus, there will be no double-counting, per se, of sales in Nielsen Music's tracking system for this period in its archived database.)

Wait. There's no double counting but June 29- July 5 would be used twice. This is confusing. Help!

Lol yeah I just re-read the article. So they're going to use the sales from June 29 - July 5 in two separate weeks? That makes even less sense.

[Daniel Collins]

The no double counting is just for the All-Time sales .But for Hot 100 double counting of sales would happen?

[ry4n]

Jul 2, 2015 9:26:08 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

The no double counting is just for the All-Time sales .But for Hot 100 double counting of sales would happen?

Yes

July 18 will cover June 29 - July 5
July 25 will cover June 29 - July 9

[Ravi]

Jul 2, 2015 9:05:24 GMT -5 ry4n said:

So the July 18th chart is the 11-day week then?

If I understand this correctly, then the chart dated July 25 will reflect sales/streams from June 29 through July 9; which would mean they'd skip over the chart dated July 18th entirely. And there will be no chart posted at all next week.

As I understood from the Billboard Article, there will be a July 18th chart with sales from 29/6 to 5/7. (7-day period)

And then there will be July 25th chart with sales from 29/6 to 9/7. (11-day period)

To avoid duplication of data, only the points for July 25th chart will be kept in database.

So in answer to you question, we will get ranking and everything this Wednesday, but they won't be stored in the database (for calculation of year-end chart etc.)

And Aug 1st chart will cover sales from 10/7 to 16/7 (7-day period) and so on......

[Ravi]

Prediction for this week's Top-5

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points
1 - See You Again - 85 - 157 - 14.5 = 38.9
2 - Cheerleader - 180 - 99 - 11.5 = 37.7
3 - Bad Blood - 140 - 157 - 8.5 = 36.8
4 - Trap Queen - 70 - 45 - 18 = 30.3
5 - Can't Feel My Face - 140 - 96 - 7.5 = 29.6

[felipe]

Jul 2, 2015 9:13:38 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Worth It should be #13 tomorrow! If continues around +1.5M until Wednesday, it could get to #11 next week (#10 if Uptown Funk falls faster!)

Considering Talking Body is also falling, Worth It could be as high as #9 by Wednesday.

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 07/03/15

1. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 196.313 (- 1.029)
2. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 182.719 (+ 0.703)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 172.293 (- 0.628)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 136.831 (- 1.401)
5. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 125.616 (+ 1.480)
6. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 108.166 (+ 0.219)
7. OMI - Cheerleader: 104.720 (+ 2.699)
8. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 101.215 (+ 3.287) ▲
9. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 99.333 (- 0.294) ▼
10. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 94.863 (- 1.640)
11. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 91.569 (- 0.545)
12. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 84.594 (- 1.453)
13. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 78.550 (+ 2.176) ▲
14. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 77.762 (+ 1.027)
15. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 76.517 (- 0.757) ▼
16. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 73.534 (+ 0.368)
17. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 72.261 (- 0.780)
18. BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 70.734 (+ 0.350)
19. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 68.686 (+ 1.671) ▲
20. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 67.653 (- 0.415)

SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 66.135 (+ 1.034)
JASON ALDEAN - Tonight Looks Good On You: 63.738 (+ 0.841)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 61.953 (+ 0.860)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 61.329 (+ 0.439)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 58.460 (+ 0.995)
CANAAN SMITH - Love You Like That: 56.185 (+ 0.856)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 54.711 (- 0.585)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 53.676 (+ 1.260)
SIA - Elastic Heart: 51.478 (+ 0.044)
JIDENNA - Classic Man: 49.266 (+ 0.963)
LUKE BRYAN - Kick The Dust Up: 43.933 (+ 0.497)
SILENTO - Watch Me: 38.814 (+ 0.517)
FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 35.545 (+ 0.950)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 30.038 (+ 0.480)
SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 29.943 (+ 0.735)
SAGE THE GEMINI - Good Thing f/Nick Jonas: 19.652 (+ 0.611)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 18.875 (+ 0.130)
DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 17.639 (+ 3.615)
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 12.641 (+ 0.282)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 12.596 (+ 0.031)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 10.940 (+ 1.754)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 10.681 (+ 0.549)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 9.852 (+ 0.320)
BECK - Dreams: 9.268 (+ 0.177)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 4.349 (+ 0.183)
AUSTIN MAHONE - Dirty Work: 0.941 (+ 0.449)

[85la]

I'll be the first to predict CFMF might leapfrog Cheerleader and block it from #1.

[Deleted]

Early Prediction:

1. See You Again *groans heavily* (10% lead)
2. Bad Blood
3. Cheerleader
4./5. Shut Up And Dance/Can't Feel My Face
6. Trap Queen
7. Watch Me (Whip / Nae Nae)
8. Where Are U Now (streaming gainer, 11M views in 4 days for the video and the song is #7 on Spotify)
9. Uptown Funk!
10. Hey Mama

11. Cool For The Summer (Hot Shot Debut!)
12. BBHMM
13. Honey, I'm Good.
14. Lean On
15. Fight Song

Praying that either Bad Blood or Cheerleader goes #1 on 7/25 before I get completely nauseous...

EDIT: forgot about the video release of BBHMM...

[imbondz]

Did the Where Are You Now video just get released?

[Deleted]

Jul 3, 2015 17:37:02 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Did the Where Are You Now video just get released?

It was released 4 days ago

[House Lannister]

Jul 3, 2015 17:02:27 GMT -5 85la said:

I'll be the first to predict CFMF might leapfrog Cheerleader and block it from #1.

I don't know about blocking Cheerleader so much.  But I think Can't Feel My Face will probably take over from Cheerleader after a few weeks.

And until I see sales, I'm calling Cool for the Summer somewhere in the high teens or low twenties for its debut.

[Future Captain]

The top 3 is going to be veeeery close, but the numbers is kinda sad, tbh.

Prediction:
1. See You Again
2/3. Cheerleader/Bad Blood (Depends on how much Apple Music could add to BB's streaming)
4. Trap Queen
5. Can't Feel My Face
6. Watch Me
7. Shut Up and Dance
8. Hey Mama
9/10. Honey I'm Good/Fight Song/Uptown Funk/Lean On/BBHMM/Where Are U Now

Going to be very tight~

Btw, what the fuck?! Everything is falling in sales!

[felipe]

What exactly is Apple Music? Is it something similar to Spotify?

[lyhom]

Jul 4, 2015 8:24:38 GMT -5 felipe said:

What exactly is Apple Music? Is it something similar to Spotify?

here

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

My chart year ends halfway through December so it gives me time to do yearend stuff in December. Not much happens for the rest of the year anyway.

[crystalphnx]

It looks like CFMF will definitely leapfrog "Cheerleader" in airplay, but "Cheerleader" still has a pretty healthy lead on iTunes, so hopefully "Cheerleader" will get to spend some time at No. 1 before CFMF takes over. Do we know if/when to expect an official video for CFMF?

Also, how much of a jump should we expect for "Bitch Better Have My Money"? On the latest charts, it was:

Not on Digital
No. 28 on Radio
No. 22 on Streaming
No. 28 on the Hot 100

While airplay has been dropping, it's been back inside the Top 30 on iTunes (currently No. 21.) The video is up to 12.8 million views, while the trailer has 7.1. I wouldn't expect the trailer to count, but it does include roughly 10 seconds of song audio and its YouTube category is "Music" with a "Standard YouTube License" (the same as the official video, whereas that well-known Budweiser ad is under "Entertainment.") Either way, a new peak seems certain, but is there any chance of it leaping into the Top 10?

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 07/04/15

TOP 10

1. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 194.191 (- 2.122)
2. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 183.327 (+ 0.608)
3. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 171.020 (- 1.273)
4. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 135.295 (- 1.536)
5. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 127.148 (+ 1.532)
6. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 108.316 (+ 0.150)
7. OMI - Cheerleader: 106.825 (+ 2.105)
8. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 104.346 (+ 3.131)
9. TOVE LO - Talking Body: 98.635 (- 0.698)
10. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 92.019 (- 2.844)

FILA

11. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 90.797 (- 0.772)
12. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 83.773 (- 0.821)
13. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 78.975 (+ 1.213)
14. DJ SNAKE & ALUNAGEORGE - You Know You Like It: 77.165 (- 1.385)
15. ELLIE GOULDING - Love Me Like You Do: 76.075 (- 0.442)
16. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 73.773 (+ 0.239)
17. BLAKE SHELTON - Sangria: 71.082 (+ 0.348)
18. TAYLOR SWIFT - Style: 70.681 (- 1.580)
19. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 69.969 (+ 1.283)
20. ED SHEERAN - Thinking Out Loud: 66.961 (- 0.692)

CURIOSIDADES


SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 66.665 (+ 0.530)
JASON ALDEAN - Tonight Looks Good On You: 64.898 (+ 1.160)
MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 63.130 (+ 1.177)
EASTON CORBIN - Baby Be My Love Song: 61.135 (- 0.194)
LITTLE BIG TOWN - Girl Crush: 59.796 (+ 1.336)
CANAAN SMITH - Love You Like That: 56.589 (+ 0.404)
ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 54.600 (+ 0.924)
RIHANNA - Bitch Better Have My Money: 53.328 (- 1.383)
SIA - Elastic Heart: 51.334 (- 0.144)
JIDENNA - Classic Man: 49.692 (+ 0.426)
LUKE BRYAN - Kick The Dust Up: 43.751 (- 0.182)
SILENTO - Watch Me: 39.595 (+ 0.781)
FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 36.614 (+ 1.069)
SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 30.905 (+ 0.962)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 30.840 (+ 0.802)
DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 21.299 (+ 3.660)
SAGE THE GEMINI - Good Thing f/Nick Jonas: 20.154 (+ 0.502)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 18.939 (+ 0.064)
KELLY CLARKSON - Invincible: 12.866 (+ 0.225)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 12.714 (+ 0.118)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 11.199 (+ 0.518)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 10.475 (+ 0.623)
BECK - Dreams: 9.341 (+ 0.073)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 7.996 (- 2.944)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 4.581 (+ 0.232)
TOVE LO - Timebomb: 1.693 (+ 0.209)
AUSTIN MAHONE - Dirty Work: 1.117 (+ 0.176)

[rimetm]

Jul 4, 2015 10:31:39 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

Also, how much of a jump should we expect for "Bitch Better Have My Money"? On the latest charts, it was:

Not on Digital
No. 28 on Radio
No. 22 on Streaming
No. 28 on the Hot 100

Radio should end up around 52.5-1.5 [because 3 days] * .8 [rough compensation for Nielsen v.s. Mediabase #s]. which is roughly 40.8 million audience
Sales are currently forecast at 38,000.
Streaming should be around 10 million, considering these are just the first few days and a good proportion of Rihanna's fanbase is in the U.S.

Points with these estimates: 4080+3167+11111=18358.

In contrast, I calculated Worth It to do around 20,500 points and Good for You to do 22,000 points last week. So, looks like it should move up somewhere around #18-15, unless my estimate for views is way off.

[crystalphnx]

Jul 4, 2015 11:38:31 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Points with these estimates: 4080+3167+11111=18358.

In contrast, I calculated Worth It to do around 20,500 points and Good for You to do 22,000 points last week. So, looks like it should move up somewhere around #18-15, unless my estimate for views is way off.

Many thanks for that! :)

It looks like you didn't include the trailer's views in that estimation, since the trailer + official video's views come to just over 20 million globally, and I assume more than half of those would be from the US. Since the trailer is categorized as "Music" and includes some of the song's original audio, I think there's at least a chance those views will be included in its streaming total. Would it be possible to get an estimation from you with the trailer's views included? Just to see a best-case scenario?

[rimetm]

Jul 4, 2015 12:32:49 GMT -5 crystalphnx said:

It looks like you didn't include the trailer's views in that estimation, since the trailer + official video's views come to just over 20 million globally, and I assume more than half of those would be from the US. Since the trailer is categorized as "Music" and includes some of the song's original audio, I think there's at least a chance those views will be included in its streaming total. Would it be possible to get an estimation from you with the trailer's views included? Just to see a best-case scenario?

Ah, I just noticed the trailer got the content ID monetization claim, so unlike my initial supposition it probably will count.

In that case, the possible final estimate for U.S. views is in the ballpark of 13,000,000 by Monday. This could mean a point total around 21,700, which could be a top 10, though most likely not even close to top 5.