Billboard Hot 100: 7/25/15 (11-day tracking period)

[crystalphnx]

As ridiculous as I thought it was at first, SYA's association with graduation season probably did help keep it so relevant even after Furious 7 left theaters. Billboard actually did a whole article on their thoughts about how SYA manged to stay so popular after the movie hype wore off - but they actually don't mention the graduation connection at all. They attribute it more to the song's high airplay and a lack of stiff competition.

Speaking of competition, if Taylor had different feelings about Spotify + such, SYA almost certainly wouldn't have gotten all (if any) of those additional post-rebound weeks at No. 1.

[wavey.]

Jul 14, 2015 7:23:29 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Jul 13, 2015 19:52:42 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

A bit off topic, but I wonder when the next time will be that there is no Chris Brown in any song on the Billboard, when the hell was the last time there was no Chris Brown on any Hot 100 song? I think it was 2 years ago, I mean holy s**t, this dude is like on a record or something and he is getting on every damn song, I wont be surprised if he passes Glee Cast with most entries soon, anyone have stats of when last time he was actually off completely on Billboard chats? and again, who knows when he will next be off...

This comment is from YouTube , posted on Testee's video for 7/18/15 chart:

That last comment was unnecessary.

[Ravi]

Jul 13, 2015 23:45:22 GMT -5 85la said:

Yeah, this week is totally f'd up. I like Cheerleader a lot and want it to be #1, but it doesn't make sense to disproportionately favor sales with an 11 day period and only have 7 days for radio and streaming. It makes the ranking almost completely illegitimate.

Well, Cheerleader would have been #1 even with 7-day sales period (Fri-Thurs)

This week's approx points:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 276 - 109 - 14.4 = 49,900
2 - See You Again - 120 -150 -14.0 = 40,500
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 205 - 110 - 9.7 = 38,800
4 - Bad Blood - 185 - 160 - 6.5 = 38,600
5 - Watch Me - 180 - 40 - 17.0 = 37,900
6 - Trap Queen - 115 - 40 - 18.0 = 33,500

If you consider the sales for only 7-day, the points approximately become:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 180 - 109 - 14.4 = 41,900
2 - See You Again - 75 -150 -14.0 = 36,800
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 135 - 110 - 9.7 = 33,000
4 - Bad Blood - 115 - 160 - 6.5 = 32,800
5 - Watch Me - 110 - 40 - 17.0 = 32,100
6 - Trap Queen - 70 - 40 - 18.0 = 29,800

So there would be absolutely no change in rankings.

[kanimal]

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:04 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Jul 13, 2015 23:45:22 GMT -5 85la said:

Yeah, this week is totally f'd up. I like Cheerleader a lot and want it to be #1, but it doesn't make sense to disproportionately favor sales with an 11 day period and only have 7 days for radio and streaming. It makes the ranking almost completely illegitimate.

Well, Cheerleader would have been #1 even with 7-day sales period (Fri-Thurs)

This week's approx points:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 276 - 109 - 14.4 = 49,900
2 - See You Again - 120 -150 -14.0 = 40,500
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 205 - 110 - 9.7 = 38,800
4 - Bad Blood - 185 - 160 - 6.5 = 38,600
5 - Watch Me - 180 - 40 - 17.0 = 37,900
6 - Trap Queen - 115 - 40 - 18.0 = 33,500

If you consider the sales for only 7-day, the points approximately become:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 180 - 109 - 14.4 = 41,900
2 - See You Again - 75 -150 -14.0 = 36,800
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 135 - 110 - 9.7 = 33,000
4 - Bad Blood - 115 - 160 - 6.5 = 32,800
5 - Watch Me - 110 - 40 - 17.0 = 32,100
6 - Trap Queen - 70 - 40 - 18.0 = 29,800

So there would be absolutely no change in rankings.

Since the top songs are generally performing well across the board, you're right that you wouldn't see much change at the top.

There was definitely effect for some of the lower chart positions.  The Meek Mill album tracks wouldn't have typically *improved* in week two.  The Demi song may have benefited - it likely depends on whether Billboard's compensatory approach would have been to include 11 days of airplay or multiply 7 days of airplay by 11/7.

Significant impact or not, it's still annoying.

What's frustrating to me, beyond the fact that Billboard clearly didn't consider the methodological impact, is that I don't see the logic in why Billboard did it this way.  If Billboard was willing to isolate 7 days of streaming, which is on the same tracking week as sales, why did it feel obligated to adhere to an 11-day sales cycle?

[Enigma.]

Remember Drake's album tracks entering on the week 2 as well?

[85la]

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:04 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Jul 13, 2015 23:45:22 GMT -5 85la said:

Yeah, this week is totally f'd up. I like Cheerleader a lot and want it to be #1, but it doesn't make sense to disproportionately favor sales with an 11 day period and only have 7 days for radio and streaming. It makes the ranking almost completely illegitimate.

Well, Cheerleader would have been #1 even with 7-day sales period (Fri-Thurs)

This week's approx points:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 276 - 109 - 14.4 = 49,900
2 - See You Again - 120 -150 -14.0 = 40,500
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 205 - 110 - 9.7 = 38,800
4 - Bad Blood - 185 - 160 - 6.5 = 38,600
5 - Watch Me - 180 - 40 - 17.0 = 37,900
6 - Trap Queen - 115 - 40 - 18.0 = 33,500

If you consider the sales for only 7-day, the points approximately become:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 180 - 109 - 14.4 = 41,900
2 - See You Again - 75 -150 -14.0 = 36,800
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 135 - 110 - 9.7 = 33,000
4 - Bad Blood - 115 - 160 - 6.5 = 32,800
5 - Watch Me - 110 - 40 - 17.0 = 32,100
6 - Trap Queen - 70 - 40 - 18.0 = 29,800

So there would be absolutely no change in rankings.

I was wondering about that, thanks for the hypothetical calculations. However, I am assuming the sales numbers are just estimates for the seven day period, so while #1 would probably be the same, as well as the positions you showed, further down they might not be where the differences are smaller.

[85la]

Sorry kanimal, didn't see your post!

[Dylan :)]

Wonder if Worth It would've had a higher chance at a new peak if sales was counted that way, it was #7 on iTunes for the majority of the weekend

[Ravi]

Jul 14, 2015 12:22:02 GMT -5 85la said:

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:04 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Well, Cheerleader would have been #1 even with 7-day sales period (Fri-Thurs)

This week's approx points:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 276 - 109 - 14.4 = 49,900
2 - See You Again - 120 -150 -14.0 = 40,500
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 205 - 110 - 9.7 = 38,800
4 - Bad Blood - 185 - 160 - 6.5 = 38,600
5 - Watch Me - 180 - 40 - 17.0 = 37,900
6 - Trap Queen - 115 - 40 - 18.0 = 33,500

If you consider the sales for only 7-day, the points approximately become:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 180 - 109 - 14.4 = 41,900
2 - See You Again - 75 -150 -14.0 = 36,800
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 135 - 110 - 9.7 = 33,000
4 - Bad Blood - 115 - 160 - 6.5 = 32,800
5 - Watch Me - 110 - 40 - 17.0 = 32,100
6 - Trap Queen - 70 - 40 - 18.0 = 29,800

So there would be absolutely no change in rankings.

I was wondering about that, thanks for the hypothetical calculations. However, I am assuming the sales numbers are just estimates for the seven day period, so while #1 would probably be the same, as well as the positions you showed, further down they might not be where the differences are smaller.

Yeah, it was possible there could be some rank switches in 3-5, especially 3 & 4.

[kanimal]

Jul 14, 2015 12:02:47 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Remember Drake's album tracks entering on the week 2 as well?

A bit of a different situation though.  Drake's album came out on a Friday, so the songs' first chart appearances were based on only three days of sales.

And even if that weren't the case, you don't really need to make a comparison.  We know Meek Mill's songs didn't sell more between 7/3 and 7/9 than they did between 6/25 and 7/5, so they shouldn't logically be higher on the second week's chart.

[Ravi]

Jul 14, 2015 11:51:14 GMT -5 kanimal said:

Jul 14, 2015 11:34:04 GMT -5 Ravi said:

Well, Cheerleader would have been #1 even with 7-day sales period (Fri-Thurs)

This week's approx points:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 276 - 109 - 14.4 = 49,900
2 - See You Again - 120 -150 -14.0 = 40,500
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 205 - 110 - 9.7 = 38,800
4 - Bad Blood - 185 - 160 - 6.5 = 38,600
5 - Watch Me - 180 - 40 - 17.0 = 37,900
6 - Trap Queen - 115 - 40 - 18.0 = 33,500

If you consider the sales for only 7-day, the points approximately become:

Rank - Song - Sales - Airplay - Streams = Points

1 - Cheerleader - 180 - 109 - 14.4 = 41,900
2 - See You Again - 75 -150 -14.0 = 36,800
3 - Can't Feel My Face - 135 - 110 - 9.7 = 33,000
4 - Bad Blood - 115 - 160 - 6.5 = 32,800
5 - Watch Me - 110 - 40 - 17.0 = 32,100
6 - Trap Queen - 70 - 40 - 18.0 = 29,800

So there would be absolutely no change in rankings.

Since the top songs are generally performing well across the board, you're right that you wouldn't see much change at the top.

There was definitely effect for some of the lower chart positions.  The Meek Mill album tracks wouldn't have typically *improved* in week two.  The Demi song may have benefited - it likely depends on whether Billboard's compensatory approach would have been to include 11 days of airplay or multiply 7 days of airplay by 11/7.

Significant impact or not, it's still annoying.

What's frustrating to me, beyond the fact that Billboard clearly didn't consider the methodological impact, is that I don't see the logic in why Billboard did it this way.  If Billboard was willing to isolate 7 days of streaming, which is on the same tracking week as sales, why did it feel obligated to adhere to an 11-day sales cycle?

I think that data for Radio/streaming is generated on daily basis, so it is possible to take any 7-day period.

But for sales, I think some sources might only be reporting on weekly basis, not daily breakdowns.

[Ravi]

Double Post.