11/27 HITS: Adele #1: 3,354,773/3,468,558

[forg]

Let's just wait and see, for now I'm going to enjoy this momentous sales As a chart geek, so happy to see robust sales, it's been a dull year with declining sales

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Nov 23, 2015 10:56:28 GMT -5 swim said:

^And SNL usually increases it's viewers by 50% each week due to DVR usage.

I do agree with the idea that there are no limits with Adele, but it seems like some projections on how the 25 era will go are extremely optimistic. This could reach 21-like heights in overall sales but the feel of the era will be completely different. People discovered Adele throughout 2011 and 2012 allowing her to have sales each week at 100k+. That's not going to happen again, though 25 will obviously sell well in 2016. Adele also doesn't do a lot of promotion so there's that to consider too.

It's challenging to predict because the weakness falls not on Adele for how well she can do, but on the music-buying public on whether they'd actually come through. Before Hello came out, I would have said 2 million for opening week for 25 was on the extreme upper end, now it's passed 2 million with 3 million within reach. Most people are predicting it'll hit 5 million before the end of 2015, with at least another whole million for Black Friday. I still think most predictions are quite ambitious but the reasoning is there to expect these numbers at this point. It's just whether people are willing to come out and buy it. It seems they are, but they're so unpredictable.

[jenglisbe]

Nov 22, 2015 20:42:34 GMT -5 felipe said:

Nov 22, 2015 19:46:10 GMT -5 ificanthaveyou said:

Very true. And selling an entire album is so much harder at that.

I imagine this will end up as one of the biggest album eras in music history. She's broken so many records already and it hasn't even been a month...

Is the album that good though? It's doing great out of the gate because of all the hype, but I don't think it'll have 21's longevity.

It doesn't need to have its longevity when its initial sales are so huge. It just needs to hold on for like 1 year. It will easily pass 5 million sold by the end of 2015, it seems. She will sell into 2016 due to new singles, continued interest, and perhaps a Grammys performance (I can see them courting her now despite ineligibility, as has happened with Justin, Bruno, etc in past years). She will then be back in the spotlight at the end of 2016 when she starts sweeping awards shows and perhaps performs.

It should also be noted that being "one of the biggest album eras in music history" is relative. When you consider what the album has already done in such a poor time for sales, the era is already huge (not just sales, but the media coverage, pop culture stuff, etc). This doesn't have to come close to Thriller or something to be one of the biggest eras.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Nothing is every going to come close to Thriller level sales. 30 plus years after it's release, it's still selling over 100k copies a year.

[when the pawn...]

This is insane. It broke the female sales record in like 36 hours. With the exception of NSYNC, Adele broke the one-week sales record in 2 days! I almost wonder if it'll be impossible to be the best seller of 2016 since she is going to sell SO MANY albums in the next 6 weeks. Especially if Swiftie puts another album out in October.

But just wow. And Black Friday is in 4 days.

[Gary]

With all the Thriller talk and the best seller of 2016 and repeating two or three years in a row, next years grammy's, deluxe reissues, etc.

My comment to that is, the album has been out a grand total of three days.


However, Album of the year for 2015 on Soundscan appears to be a lock. With sales the way they are it won't take more than a couple million to do that again in 2016.

'25' will not qualify for the 2015 champ on the Billboard 200 and appears to have 2016 on lock based just on the first three days. Anything beyond that might be premature.

[jenglisbe]

I don't think anyone has said it would sell more than Thriller? There is no need to bring that 30 year old album into the discussion anyway. What started the discussion is someone posting this could be "one of" the biggest eras in history. "One of" does not mean the biggest. To be "one of" it could be top 5-10 and still qualify.

"Hello" has already broken sales records, and it has already been parodied on SNL and the AMAs, not to mention having been covered by a lot of artists. In that sense, "Hello" is already huge. The album is well on its way to setting a record for biggest debut era. So, this era is already huge regardless if it doesn't produce another hit.

[KeepDeanWeird]

Nov 23, 2015 13:21:32 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I don't think anyone has said it would sell more than Thriller? There is no need to bring that 30 year old album into the discussion anyway. What started the discussion is someone posting this could be "one of" the biggest eras in history. "One of" does not mean the biggest. To be "one of" it could be top 5-10 and still qualify.

"Hello" has already broken sales records, and it has already been parodied on SNL and the AMAs, not to mention having been covered by a lot of artists. In that sense, "Hello" is already huge. The album is well on its way to setting a record for biggest debut era. So, this era is already huge regardless if it doesn't produce another hit.

If it doesn't end up producing at least two other major hits - the narrative will be very different than what we are talking about during the past couple of days. However, IMO it doesn't matter - the response to 25 has been positive and it's a welcome change to have an artist like ADELE in the popular music mix. I just hope she doesn't go the Sade route and go several years between releases.

[when the pawn...]

The general reception to the album is fantastic. It sold almost 2 million copies in 2 days. It's first single broke many, many records, covered a million times, parodied in all the right places, isn't slowing down (or at least at the pace it should be slowing down). I understand 25 isn't 21 yet but it is unequivocally a massive success, even if it has only been out 72 hours.

It will be interesting to see how future singles do since people are going to be listening to them a lot before their proper release but it's hard to imagine at least WWWY and SML flopping/disappointing.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Send My Love has the potential to be her biggest hit ever. HAC, AC, CHR are a given. It would fit better on rhythmic than any of her previous singles. They could toss a rapper on a remix and get urban onboard. Have a video with her doing something more than just sitting in a chair or walking around in sepia and it could get Taylor Swift level views.

[AP]

Nov 23, 2015 14:02:57 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Have a video with her doing something more than just sitting in a chair or walking around in sepia and it could get Taylor Swift level views.

She's doing better than Taylor level views with "Hello."

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Nov 23, 2015 14:11:24 GMT -5 AP said:

Nov 23, 2015 14:02:57 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Have a video with her doing something more than just sitting in a chair or walking around in sepia and it could get Taylor Swift level views.

She's doing better than Taylor level views with "Hello."

She has a ways to go to 2 videos with over a billion views.

[Kurt]

Album sales tally is now 2.3M: www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6770443/adeles-25-two-million-first-three-days

[Dalliance]

Haven't posted in this part of the forum in years but had to come just to say damn. Girl is mad overyhyped but those sales are stunning. Talk about an anachronism.

[when the pawn...]

Do we think Adele broke Britney's record on day 1?

[Envoirment]

so she sold 400k yesterday. With more promotion coming up in the days ahead and 4 more days of sales, I can see this doing 3.3-3.6 million and possibly beating "Candle In The Wind" for most copies of a record sold in a single week. Which is astounding since that was a single and this is an album.

The fact 3 million+ is pretty much on lock and we have black friday next week. If she were to sell 3.5 million first week and had a 68% drop second week she'd sell ~1.1 million next week. Factor in black friday and her second week could be 1.3-1.6 million.

She might do 5 million copies in 2 weeks... This is just so exciting! Can't believe how well this album is doing. It's had the perfect rollout which I didn't think possible. I can see the album doing 8 million by the end of the year now. *_*

[areyoureadytojump]

^Slow down. 8 million??? I don't know...

and...

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6770470/adele-25-already-2015-biggest-selling-album

Adele's '25' Is Already 2015's Biggest-Selling Album
By Keith Caulfield | November 23, 2015 6:12 PM EST

Adele’s 25 has only been on sale for three days, but it’s already the top-selling album of 2015 in the U.S., according to Nielsen Music.

The album, which was released on Nov. 20 through XL/Columbia Records, sold at least 2.3 million copies through Nov. 22. That instantly makes it the year’s best-seller, surpassing with 1.76 million sold by Taylor Swift’s 1989. (Swift’s set, released in 2014, has sold 5.42 million in total.)

It’s a safe bet to assume that 25 will finish 2015 as the year’s top seller. Adele’s previous album, 21, was the best-selling album of both 2012 and 2011 in the U.S. In 2012, it shifted 4.42 million copies, and in 2011, it moved 5.82 million.

25 was led by the single "Hello," which has spent four weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. With 2.55 million downloads sold, it is the year's eighth-largest-selling song.

[Gary]

5 million in 2 weeks, 8 million in 3? Then how about 12 million by December 31? LOL

Sales will decline from here. The biggest sales week will be the first one. It WILL slow down.

[Envoirment]

Nov 23, 2015 18:29:35 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

^Slow down. 8 million??? I don't know...

Just going for an ambitious target as Adele has completely blown everyone's predictions out of the water.

Week 1: ~3.3-3.6 million
Week 2: ~1.2-1.5 million
Week 3: ~600-800k
Week 4: ~600-800k
Week 5: ~1- 1.2 million (Christmas week)
Week 6: ~300-500k

So ~7-8.4 million total is my predicton before the end of the year.

[Envoirment]

Nov 23, 2015 18:51:56 GMT -5 Gary said:

5 million in 2 weeks, 8 million in 3? Then how about 12 million by December 31? LOL

Sales will decline from here. The biggest sales week will be the first one. It WILL slow down.

I said 8 million by the end of the year not by week 3.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I'm going to say:

week 1: 3.1 million
week 2: 1.2 million
week 3: 500k
week 4: 350k
week 5: 300k
week 6: 180k

5.2ish million for the year. While that sole number seems uber high, my week-to-week predictions are admittedly on the low end. Damn!

[swim]

Now that Billboard is calling 2.9, I can see this doing 3. Thursday is such a wildcard. The fact that Black Friday really starts on Thursday helps it, that's when everyone is lining up. If there are Adele displays by the registers at Target I can see a lot of people picking the album up while they're waiting in line for an hour and a half just to check out.

I can see it doing 1 million in it's second week. I can see it reaching 6 by the end of the year, not sure about 8? I'd be interested in hearing a breakdown on some of these projections you guys have.

Also, if I did my figuring correctly, the Adele concert special will air after the first part of The Voice finale. The Voice gets 10-12M viewers each week so the special will have a sizable lead-in.

[when the pawn...]

What about

week 1: 3 million
2: 1.4 million
3: 600k
4: 450k
5: 750k
6: 275k
6.475 million for the year

When was the last time anything sold 6 million+ in a calendar year? Confessions? The Emancipation of Mimi?

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Confessions was the last time in 2004. Mariah was just under 5 million.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_albums_by_year_in_the_United_States

[areyoureadytojump]

^^2004:

1. Confessions Usher: 7,978,594

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Next question: is this the latest released album (as in, released late in the year) to be the top selling album for that year?

[Au$tin]

Ooh, I'll throw my ring into the predictions!

week 1: 3.0 million
week 2: 1.1 million (Black Friday)
week 3: 625k
week 4: 350k
week 5: 375k (week leading into Christmas)
week 6: 325k (digital sales rush)

6 million.

[Gary]

Nov 23, 2015 19:38:20 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Next question: is this the latest released album (as in, released late in the year) to be the top selling album for that year?

Don't remember. Match it up to Josh Groban I think.

[skizzo]

I seriously dont get it. I really dont. But congrats to her.

[areyoureadytojump]

Nov 23, 2015 19:53:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

Nov 23, 2015 19:38:20 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Next question: is this the latest released album (as in, released late in the year) to be the top selling album for that year?

Don't remember. Match it up to Josh Groban I think.

I looked. Josh Groban was Oct. 9.

EDIT.

Never mind. lol