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Post by leredlum on Dec 20, 2015 21:48:50 GMT -5
Prediction
01. Hello
02. Sorry
03. Hotline Bling
04. Love Yourself
05. What Dow You Mean?
06. Here
07. The Hills
08. Same Old Love
09. Stitches
10. Like I'm Gonna Lose You
11. In the Night
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Dec 21, 2015 3:36:03 GMT -5
Not trying to pull a ZSOG here, but does Sorry still have a chance to hit #1 on the Hot 100? Gift card week is its best bet I think. It'd be something if Adele released a video for "When We Were Young" the night before and stole his thunder again  |
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carreramd
Charting
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 406 
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Post by carreramd on Dec 21, 2015 3:54:47 GMT -5
Not trying to pull a ZSOG here, but does Sorry still have a chance to hit #1 on the Hot 100? Gift card week is its best bet I think. How does gift card works? I'm not from US. |
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Post by ificanthaveyou on Dec 21, 2015 4:07:44 GMT -5
Gift card week is its best bet I think. How does gift card works? I'm not from US. "Gift cards are prepaid stored-value money cards issued by a retailer to be used as an alternative to cash for purchases within their store" A lot of kids/people get iTunes giftcards for Christmas, so the week after Christmas is generally when they use their gift cards to buy music. |
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Enigma.
Diamond Member
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Posts: 14,170
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Post by Enigma. on Dec 21, 2015 7:43:31 GMT -5
I think a lot of people will get Spotify giftcards
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2015 11:13:17 GMT -5
I'm not sure exactly what they assume, but it's an estimation so they no doubt will be making numerous assumptions. I think they estimate stuff like the audience of each radio station at the time of day each song is played (e.g. a spin at 4am would contribute less AI than a spin at 4pm, and a play on Z100 would contribute more AI than a spin on a small station). It's not just cars either, radio stations sometimes broadcast in places like shops of offices where a large number (i.e. dozens) of people could be listening, and I think they probably take that into account in their estimations too. These AI figures won't ever be completely accurate, but I'm sure they try their best to get good estimations. Has it ever been explained how they do these estimations? Having worked in radio for many years, this is what I can tell you... market size (number of people is a specific area) and ratings are used to determine estimated audience size for any given time of the day for any given radio station. more people listen during morning drive than in the evenings, for example, so every spin during morning drive has a larger audience impression/share than the same song played at night. it's not specific enough to know EXACTLY how many people are listening to every spin of every song, it's rather an estimate of impressions based on the aforementioned factors. It's much like television - it's all based on a sampling, really. |
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Au$tin
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My Charts
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Post by Au$tin on Dec 21, 2015 11:28:18 GMT -5
I think a lot of people will get Spotify giftcards This may actually start to be a thing. iTunes gift cards are probably still going to be the more popular gifts, but as each Christmas season passes, we might go from seeing an annual boost in digital sales to an annual boost in streaming. I don't think the Christmas digital sales boost will ever disappear, though, just weaken. |
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Daniel Collins
4x Platinum Member
With every broken bone, I swear I lived
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Post by Daniel Collins on Dec 21, 2015 12:24:23 GMT -5
Kworb 2015/12/21
*** = dropped or added a format
1. ADELE - Hello: 214.346 (-0.590)
2. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 182.832 (+1.613)
3. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 153.657 (+0.543)
4. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 140.504 (-2.014)
5. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 135.933 (+0.536)
6. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 135.199 (+2.034)
7. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 118.163 (-2.203***)
8. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 117.071 (+0.887)
9. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 102.914 (-1.547)
10. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 102.244 (-1.850)
11. THE WEEKND - In The Night: 91.383 (+0.658)
12. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 87.188 (-0.628)
13. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 83.349 (-1.380)
14. THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 67.721 (+0.276)
15. CAM - Burning House: 66.855 (-0.444)
16. TRAVI$ SCOTT - Antidote: 66.584 (+0.995) ▲
17. JASON ALDEAN - Gonna Know We Were Here: 65.468 (-0.359) ▼
18. DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 62.593 (+1.060)
19. TWENTY ONE PILOTS - Stressed Out: 61.859 (+1.962)
20. BROTHERS OSBORNE - Stay A Little Longer: 59.973 (+0.252)
21. TIM MCGRAW - Top Of The World: 58.372 (-0.828)
22. LOCASH - I Love This Life: 56.652 (+0.739) ▲
23. BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 55.727 (-2.689) ▼
24. DRAKE & FUTURE - Jumpman: 55.718 (+0.463) ▲
25. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 55.687 (-1.244) ▼
26. POST MALONE - White Iverson: 55.468 (+0.514)
27. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 51.595 (-0.961)
28. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 49.789 (-0.614)
29. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 49.528 (-0.391)
30. SAM HUNT - Break Up In A Small Town: 48.042 (+0.145)
31. JANA KRAMER - I Got The Boy: 47.453 (-0.344)
32. THE CHAINSMOKERS - Roses f/Rozes: 47.439 (+0.815) ▲
33. TORY LANEZ - Say It: 47.148 (+0.711) ▲
34. J. COLE - No Role Modelz: 47.132 (+0.034) ▼
35. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 46.379 (-0.634) ▼
36. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 46.270 (-0.709) ▼
37. ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 45.413 (+0.428)
38. LUKE BRYAN - Home Alone Tonight: 44.478 (+0.265) ▲
39. JUSTIN BIEBER - Love Yourself: 44.221 (+3.591***) ▲
40. CHRIS YOUNG - I'm Comin' Over: 44.057 (-0.522) ▼
41. DAYA - Hide Away: 42.243 (+0.555)
42. KELSEA BALLERINI - Dibs: 42.238 (-0.479) ▼
43. GRANGER SMITH - Backroad Song: 40.668 (+0.370)
44. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 38.715 (+0.354)
45. BRYSON TILLER - Don't: 37.955 (+0.309) ▲
46. BRAD PAISLEY - Country Nation: 37.733 (-0.103) ▼
47. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 36.777 (-0.325)
48. GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 36.634 (-0.104)
49. RANDY HOUSER - We Went: 35.710 (-0.259)
50. FETTY WAP - Again: 35.651 (+0.563) ▲
51. KEITH URBAN - Break On Me: 35.381 (+0.039) ▼
52. DAN + SHAY - Nothin' Like You: 33.395 (-1.750) ▼
53. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 33.140 (-0.113)
54. RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 32.835 (+0.366) ▲
55. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 32.364 (-0.311) ▼
56. SHAWN MENDES & CAMILA CABELLO - I Know What You Did Last...: 31.724 (+1.388) ▲
57. ZAC BROWN BAND - Beautiful Drug: 31.132 (-0.111)
58. COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 31.089 (+0.190)
59. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 30.759 (-0.744) ▼
60. ADELE - When We Were Young: 30.284 (+3.115***) ▲
61. YO GOTTI - Down In The DM: 30.057 (+0.296) ▲
62. DEJ LOAF - Back Up f/Big Sean: 29.439 (-0.724) ▼
63. FUTURE - Where Ya At f/Drake: 28.657 (-0.332)
64. OLD DOMINION - Break Up With Him: 28.510 (+0.047) ▲
65. ERIC CHURCH - Mr. Misunderstood: 28.462 (+0.264) ▲
66. ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 28.098 (-0.783) ▼
67. PARMALEE - Already Callin' You Mine: 27.403 (-2.642) ▼
68. KENNY CHESNEY - Save It For A Rainy Day: 26.887 (+0.581) ▲
69. BIG SEAN - Play No Games: 26.604 (+0.196) ▼
70. CHASE BRYANT - Little Bit Of You: 25.722 (+0.059)
71. COLONEL LOUD - California f/Young Dolph: 25.125 (-0.006)
72. FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 24.841 (-0.108)
73. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Heartbeat: 24.312 (+0.871) ▲
74. THE WEEKND - Earned It: 24.279 (-0.064)
75. CHRIS BROWN - Back To Sleep: 24.278 (+0.382) ▲
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Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 13,029
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Post by Dylan :) on Dec 21, 2015 14:03:57 GMT -5
1. Adele - Hello (8 wks)
2. Justin Bieber - Sorry
3. Drake - Hotline Bling
4. Justin Bieber - Love Yourself
5. Justin Bieber - What Do You Mean?
6. Selena Gomez - Same Old Love (woah, that was unexpected)
7. The Weeknd - The Hills
8. Alessia Cara - Here
9. Shawn Mendes - Stitches
10. Meghan Trainor & John Legend - Like I'm Gonna Lose You
12. The Weeknd - In The Night
13. Drake & Future - Jumpman
19. Twenty One Pilots - Stressed Out
55. Adele - When We Were Young
62. Selena Gomez - Hands To Myself
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2015 14:24:15 GMT -5
24. JORDAN SMITH - MARY DID YOU KNOW
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rimetm
2x Platinum Member
Just a Good Ol' Chart Shmuck
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Post by rimetm on Dec 21, 2015 14:30:25 GMT -5
18. All I Want for Christmas is You
26. Roses
30. Confident
46. I Know What You Did Last Summer
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Dec 21, 2015 14:34:15 GMT -5
C'mon The Weeknd and Drake/Future! Kick Selena and Meghan/John out of the Top 10 to make it a 90% Canadian Top 10!
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Dec 21, 2015 14:42:38 GMT -5
18. All I Want for Christmas is You Yeah! Finally Top 20!!!! |
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Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 13,029
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Post by Dylan :) on Dec 21, 2015 15:11:13 GMT -5
C'mon The Weeknd and Drake/Future! Kick Selena and Meghan/John out of the Top 10 to make it a 90% Canadian Top 10! I'd rather not :( Hoping Meghan and John manage to get a new peak, and when they fall out of the top ten, the song still has good longevity on the chart, making 35-40 weeks |
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Ravi
Charting
Joined: February 2015
Posts: 420
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Post by Ravi on Dec 21, 2015 21:06:49 GMT -5
6. Selena Gomez - Same Old Love (woah, that was unexpected) 7. The Weeknd - The Hills 8. Alessia Cara - Here There wouldn't have been much difference in points for #6-8..... 5k sales or half million streams here and there,and the order would have changed. Same Old Love might even sneak into Top-5 next week replacing WDYM. |
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Dylan :)
Diamond Member
smth 'bout youu
Joined: October 2014
Posts: 13,029
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Post by Dylan :) on Dec 21, 2015 21:10:42 GMT -5
6. Selena Gomez - Same Old Love (woah, that was unexpected) 7. The Weeknd - The Hills 8. Alessia Cara - Here There wouldn't have been much difference in points for #6-8..... 5k sales or half million streams here and there,and the order would have changed.
Same Old Love might even sneak into Top-5 next week replacing WDYM.I really hope it does! |
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carreramd
Charting
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 406
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Post by carreramd on Dec 21, 2015 21:51:11 GMT -5
The video for Hands To Myself is awesome. The views from Apple Music will count for Hot 100?
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brady47
Platinum Member
Joined: February 2013
Posts: 1,449
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Post by brady47 on Dec 21, 2015 22:02:32 GMT -5
Wow, Selena Gomez is having an amazing era with Revival! Seems like "Same Old Love" is on track to outpeak "Good For You", I would've never guessed that "Same Old Love" would have an equal level of success as "Good For You".
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aser94
Charting
Joined: June 2015
Posts: 65
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Post by aser94 on Dec 21, 2015 23:10:01 GMT -5
So happy that "AIWFCIY" finally got a new peak! Top 15 next week, maybe? It's perfect that this tracking week is almost completely aligned with the lead-up to Christmas (just wish Christmas fell on Thursday).
Also:
72. Jordan Smith – Climb Every Mountain
90. Jordan Smith – God Only Knows
99. Jordan Smith – Somebody to Love
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Dec 22, 2015 0:09:04 GMT -5
So happy that "AIWFCIY" finally got a new peak! Top 15 next week, maybe? It's perfect that this tracking week is almost completely aligned with the lead-up to Christmas (just wish Christmas fell on Thursday). Actually, probably the best case scenario is Xmas on Sunday or Monday - here's why: Radio and Streaming tracking ends on Sunday, while sales end on Thursday - sales of AIWFCIY tend to drop closer to Xmas (and will continue to be less important in future years), while airplay will always be steady component for the song and streaming will only increase in importance. When AIWFCIY hits the Top 10, my work will be done. :) |
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2015 1:31:34 GMT -5
The video for Hands To Myself is awesome. The views from Apple Music will count for Hot 100? No, Apple does not report its video streaming numbers to Billboard (this is how Hotline Bling got screwed out of its chance at number 1). |
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Verisimilitude
8x Platinum Member
'90s Zealot
Joined: July 2010
Posts: 8,976
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Post by Verisimilitude on Dec 22, 2015 2:05:37 GMT -5
The video for Hands To Myself is awesome. The views from Apple Music will count for Hot 100? No, Apple does not report its video streaming numbers to Billboard (this is how Hotline Bling got screwed out of its chance at number 1). They do now though. |
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Post by Leaf on Dec 22, 2015 3:04:18 GMT -5
99. Jordan Smith – Somebody to Love So from #21 to #99 (78 spots), that is the second largest drop. The largest is 79 (Javier Colon - Stitch by Stitch fell from #17 to #96). Both winners of The Voice. |
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carreramd
Charting
Joined: September 2015
Posts: 406
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Post by carreramd on Dec 22, 2015 5:24:13 GMT -5
29. Burning House (+18)
47. Cake By The Ocean (+16)
51. My House (+5)
55. When We Were Young (+23)
60. One Call Away (+15)
So happy for Charlie! He really deserve.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2015 11:24:31 GMT -5
So happy that "AIWFCIY" finally got a new peak! Top 15 next week, maybe? It's perfect that this tracking week is almost completely aligned with the lead-up to Christmas (just wish Christmas fell on Thursday). Actually, probably the best case scenario is Xmas on Sunday or Monday - here's why: Radio and Streaming tracking ends on Sunday, while sales end on Thursday - sales of AIWFCIY tend to drop closer to Xmas (and will continue to be less important in future years), while airplay will always be steady component for the song and streaming will only increase in importance. When AIWFCIY hits the Top 10, my work will be done. :) Next year christmas is on a Sunday, and Thanksgiving is earlier than it was this year date-wise. AIWFCIY should have 5 solid weeks on the Hot 100 next year, with the weeks ending 12/22 and/or 12/29 being potential new peak weeks. for those wanting a super clean tracking week lead up to christmas - it doesn't fall on a thursday until 2025! |
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85la
3x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,916
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Post by 85la on Dec 23, 2015 1:13:11 GMT -5
So happy that "AIWFCIY" finally got a new peak! Top 15 next week, maybe? It's perfect that this tracking week is almost completely aligned with the lead-up to Christmas (just wish Christmas fell on Thursday). Actually, probably the best case scenario is Xmas on Sunday or Monday - here's why: Radio and Streaming tracking ends on Sunday, while sales end on Thursday - sales of AIWFCIY tend to drop closer to Xmas (and will continue to be less important in future years), while airplay will always be steady component for the song and streaming will only increase in importance. When AIWFCIY hits the Top 10, my work will be done. :) Streaming ends on Thursday though. |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Dec 23, 2015 12:05:08 GMT -5
Actually, probably the best case scenario is Xmas on Sunday or Monday - here's why: Radio and Streaming tracking ends on Sunday, while sales end on Thursday - sales of AIWFCIY tend to drop closer to Xmas (and will continue to be less important in future years), while airplay will always be steady component for the song and streaming will only increase in importance. When AIWFCIY hits the Top 10, my work will be done. :) Streaming ends on Thursday though. I didn't realize this - it makes radio ending on Sunday even more illogical. |
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badrobot
3x Platinum Member
Joined: November 2006
Posts: 3,392
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Post by badrobot on Dec 23, 2015 14:12:39 GMT -5
99. Jordan Smith – Somebody to Love So from #21 to #99 (78 spots), that is the second largest drop. The largest is 79 (Javier Colon - Stitch by Stitch fell from #17 to #96). Both winners of The Voice. Largest drop would actually be Soko I think, falling off the chart from #9 (92+ spots). |
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Post by Leaf on Dec 23, 2015 16:43:04 GMT -5
So from #21 to #99 (78 spots), that is the second largest drop. The largest is 79 (Javier Colon - Stitch by Stitch fell from #17 to #96). Both winners of The Voice. Largest drop would actually be Soko I think, falling off the chart from #9 (92+ spots). Oh yeah, I meant whilst remaining on the chart. |
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Dec 23, 2015 19:39:02 GMT -5
So from #21 to #99 (78 spots), that is the second largest drop. The largest is 79 (Javier Colon - Stitch by Stitch fell from #17 to #96). Both winners of The Voice. Largest drop would actually be Soko I think, falling off the chart from #9 (92+ spots). Soko and "Dope" really stick in my craw that they go down as Top 10 songs (I won't use 'hits') when so many other songs, including ones I don't like, were far more worthy on what I like to call 'chart merit.' If it weren't for Billboard and their silly rules, exceptions, revisions, etc., I'd have nothing to complain about.... :) |
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