Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 16:14:28 GMT -5
Also my gut is telling me to go with the obvious choice here which is popstop because so far we've been right as far as Az goes and the towniness of LBT and Wot and even Kunt to an extent but have done everything possible to question those reads when it would seem the truth is staring right in the face.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 16:17:06 GMT -5
I'm assuming one of them is supposed to say LBT because Bill Clinton was his flavor. Hmm ok I'm inclined to believe you @antigonerising because I visited you N1 and didn't die. The only thing that keeps me from fully believing you is that we only had one death that night which I take to mean that the PGO wasn't armed. So if it had been you then that's why I didn't die. Take all that with a grain of salt though because I want to revisit the visits more closely when I get home. Btw are you insinuating that you visited Wot also or what? I think we are in MYLO so I guess it's safe to say this now. I picked up on Wot being the cop on D2 (and visited him for that reason, it was safe). And that's why I also wouldn't budge on LBT being town, Wot pretty much 'cleared him.' BRB I'll go through the thread and point out where I made that realization.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 16:24:36 GMT -5
Well the fact that you'd share that makes me want to believe in you. But all the more reason I would love to hear from Wot.
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Post by josh on May 30, 2016 16:42:51 GMT -5
#Mod: Changed Bill Clinton's person to LBTrocks.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 17:02:42 GMT -5
Well the fact that you'd share that makes me want to believe in you. But all the more reason I would love to hear from Wot. Right. I want to know who he checked out. but to follow up on my last post - page 15. I had voted for WotUNeed, but then realized later that my reasoning for that vote didn't make sense, so I immediately went to unvote. This was even without Wot defending himself, but by that time, he had already responded by saying that he thought walker was the jailkeeper up until Max's lynch. Now, everyone else thought walker was soft-claiming cop, so why would he think differently? For that matter, why would a scum player admit to thinking something so wildly different? That would just make him stand out. (In fact, of the few things Az did do in the game was single out that comment later to raise an eyebrow at it - probably just trying to drive suspicion in any direction other than his own). Anyway, it clicked to me that there was no reason for anyone to think walker was the jailkeeper except for the one person who already knew he wasn't the cop. So then I looked at his analysis of all the players and saw that he admits to visiting LBT, and goes on to say that he believes LBT is town despite having his doubts on day 1. He never does budge from that even when others cast doubt on LBT's play. This is why I never did revisit Wot's post to discuss it; I didn't want to bring attention to it.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 17:10:20 GMT -5
Well that was... not expected. I will have to set aside some time to read shit through, though I suppose I can ask first: popstop, you didn't happen to visit one of Albie or Cynthia last night and live to tell the tale? That would save me time I should be spending on doing productive things.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 17:45:37 GMT -5
And while I guess it's nice that you, Albie and @antigonerising, have ruled me out as scum and narrowed it down to a 50-50 for yourselves, perhaps you could give me some ideas of who you're thinking we should be targeting and why?
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 18:06:36 GMT -5
Well that was... not expected. I will have to set aside some time to read s**t through, though I suppose I can ask first: popstop, you didn't happen to visit one of Albie or Cynthia last night and live to tell the tale? That would save me time I should be spending on doing productive things. Unfortunately, I can't clear it up for you, Wot. I originally sent a request to visit Cynthia, but I switched it to Ginger on the chance Cynthia bussed Az. Is anyone going to be logical and look at the deaths? These are people who visited someone they thought was town. Every single person on D2 places on FOS on me and two of them are going to visit me N2? Does that make sense to you? Come on, people
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 18:29:43 GMT -5
Ok Wot, well give me a hand with this:
Night 1 Visits: Az --> walker9 LBTrocks --> walker9 WotUneed --> LBTrocks Cynthia --> walker9 Kunt --> walker9 Albie --> Cynthia Narwhals --> Popstop Popstop --> Kunt
I went back and looked at the Night 1 visits, and knowing now that LBT, Kunt/Ginger and Narwhals all flipped town there is no real reason to believe they are lying about their visits. With that in mind, no one visited Az. And no additional person died that night. I am going to go ahead and assume that Az armed himself on N1 but since no one visited him well his power went to waste. I'm led to believe this because on N1 both Cynthia and popstop had a visitor. I know that I visited Cynthia on N1 and I think I can believe Narwhals in that he visited popstop - and we both survived. I am pairing that up with the fact that Az basically gave up and turned himself in toward the end of D2 which helped to get him correctly lynched. It's as if he felt satisfied in going out because he no longer had his PGO but knew his scum partner does still have it. Either that or really neither had armed themselves on N1 and Az was lynched D2 so we don't get to find out and it doesn't matter. What does matter is that
ok wait I'm literally cutting myself off mid-thought because what I'm also realizing is that no one visited you, Wot, on N1. And if you were scum you might have armed yourself but since no one visited you well no one else died. I visited you N2 but if you'd already used your PGO power well then I wouldn't turn up dead. Ugh...total aside. I'm leaving that out of my mind for now though.
As I was saying, what does matter is that if I go with my theory that only one of the scum team armed themselves on N1 - Az - and the other didn't. Assuming that person was popstop, I can think of at least one person that would have visited him. LBTrocks last had his vote on popstop so its plausible that he'd want to check in. And especially since he took the time to unvote him which, in my mind, says that he was starting to lessen his suspicious of him and maybe felt safer in visiting him. For that same reason though, LBT could have been the NK. We have no way of knowing what was what.
I'm not really sure what to make of Ginger. His last vote was on me in an effort to apply pressure on me as he felt I'd had none. His thoughts on Cynthia were that she is one to watch out for just as much as Wot. Nothing stood out as scummy to him about either of you but he mentioned how good you both are at appearing town.
In reading that post of Ginger's on page 19 where he gives his reads on everyone, he quoted a post where Cynthia throws out there that Az and popstop are likely partners, if they are scum. Well obviously this was before Az was lynched and, to me, if Az were her partner it doesn't seem like she'd so heavily throw him under the bus. She essentially started the Az wagon days prior when she joined Narwhals and was the second vote for Az and never budged. Now either that's some really good distancing and it was too late for her to move her vote off him when she wanted to or she legitimately is town and suspected him. I'm inclined to believe the latter because Az had 3 votes on him for a large part of D2 and would have been plenty of opportunities for her to move her vote of him and try to move the lynch elsewhere - maybe to popstop - I thought that for a minute when I thought that he could have been her partner but that's obviously out the window since Az was scum.
Ugh, on the other hand though, the argument can still be made for Cynthia unfortunately. I keep going back to whether or not both scum would have armed themselves on N1 and if in fact only Az did arm himself or if neither did (again, no one visited him) that would still leave a PGO for last night. It makes sense that some of the guys would have visited Cynthia because they felt safe. I mean its the reason I visited Wot because I felt safest in his being town but I also figured that if he wasn't then the players would look at my death and think twice - especially because I had my most recent vote on him. I'm not sure what to make of that....
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 18:33:52 GMT -5
Anyhow, it's obvious to me it's albie. If Wot is the cop, I'm hoping his comment means he's cleared me, and Cynthia stayed on Az through the entirety of D2 and had her vote on him end of D1. It could be bussing, but it seems odd she would bus Az D1 when he didn't have as much suspicion on him.
Also, albie never voted for Az. He initialy pairs me with narwhals beginning of D2. He has a whole diatribe on my play on D2, yet puts his vote on Wot. Why? Because he needed me to stay in the game. He knew with Az gone, it would be easier to lynch me D3.
Not to mention, so many people believed albie was town on D2, it's believable two people would have chosen to visit him.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 18:37:46 GMT -5
Well that was... not expected. I will have to set aside some time to read s**t through, though I suppose I can ask first: popstop, you didn't happen to visit one of Albie or Cynthia last night and live to tell the tale? That would save me time I should be spending on doing productive things. Unfortunately, I can't clear it up for you, Wot. I originally sent a request to visit Cynthia, but I switched it to Ginger on the chance Cynthia bussed Az. Is anyone going to be logical and look at the deaths? These are people who visited someone they thought was town. Every single person on D2 places on FOS on me and two of them are going to visit me N2? Does that make sense to you? Come on, people I'm doing that right now actually but regarding the bolded - IIRC Albie said that he visited me on N1 because he wasn't sure about me and if I was armed scum, he hoped his death would leave a trail. So I don't know that all three of them would have followed the 'pick a town player' logic and I'm not sure what to make of you asserting it as fact. Off the top of my head I recall that Narwhals never did come up off his scum read for you OR me, but I can't remember if he had strong feelings about albie. We also have to keep in mind that one of these three was a NK, and we don't know which one. So the NK might have otherwise been safe if he only had his visit to rely on.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 18:40:00 GMT -5
Anyhow, it's obvious to me it's albie. If Wot is the cop, I'm hoping his comment means he's cleared me, and Cynthia stayed on Az through the entirety of D2 and had her vote on him end of D1. It could be bussing, but it seems odd she would bus Az D1 when he didn't have as much suspicion on him. Also, albie never voted for Az. He initialy pairs me with narwhals beginning of D2. He has a whole diatribe on my play on D2, yet puts his vote on Wot. Why? Because he needed me to stay in the game. He knew with Az gone, it would be easier to lynch me D3. Not to mention, so many people believed albie was town on D2, it's believable two people would have chosen to visit him. Ugh, OTOH maybe you are right and they did all visit someone they thought was safe...albie is the only one who used that 'leave a trail' reason. I know I visited people that I thought wouldn't kill me both nights, so...???
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 18:48:50 GMT -5
That was my strategy as well which is why I stuck with Kunt/Ginger.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 18:50:04 GMT -5
Anyhow, it's obvious to me it's albie. If Wot is the cop, I'm hoping his comment means he's cleared me, and Cynthia stayed on Az through the entirety of D2 and had her vote on him end of D1. It could be bussing, but it seems odd she would bus Az D1 when he didn't have as much suspicion on him. Also, albie never voted for Az. He initialy pairs me with narwhals beginning of D2. He has a whole diatribe on my play on D2, yet puts his vote on Wot. Why? Because he needed me to stay in the game. He knew with Az gone, it would be easier to lynch me D3. Not to mention, so many people believed albie was town on D2, it's believable two people would have chosen to visit him. Ugh, OTOH maybe you are right and they did all visit someone they thought was safe...albie is the only one who used that 'leave a trail' reason. I know I visited people that I thought wouldn't kill me both nights, so...??? Right, and why would I say that? I wouldn't choose to say something that stood out from everyone else if I were playing this masterful game as scum that popstop is now trying to paint me out to do. I don't recall a single instance prior where popstop was painting me as scum. In fact, he'd taken the time various times to point out how I'm town and seemed to feel pretty secure in that despite all of the crap I kept throwing his way. But now he's suspicious? Ok way to deflect. I, on the other hand, have voiced my suspicions on him and if anything, I'm thinking Cynthia you may have hit the nail on the head a while back in clocking the scum team.
That is, of course, if I choose to believe you're town. Like I said before, we've done the opposite of trust our instincts so far but I'm feeling like our instincts have been correct.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 19:03:58 GMT -5
Albie, we've had a few significant events since I last said you were town.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 19:19:21 GMT -5
Ugh. I'm trying to get some help here. It's actually a lot harder to play this when people aren't suspicious of me; it means I have to try to do something right.
Popstop thinks I should look at Albie. Albie thinks I should look at popstop. @antigonerising , how would you break the tie?
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 19:37:36 GMT -5
Albie, we've had a few significant events since I last said you were town. Well right but why would you look at me over Cynthia? I think you're a smart player and you've watched me play behind the scenes and you know that I'm super scrambled and all over the place. There is no way I'm good enough to outmaneuver you lot - certainly not better than Cynthia. And most certainly not with a partner like Az whom as far as we can tell would have been super checked out and not the person to be coaching me on how to play a great scum game. But you (or Cynthia for that matter) wouldn't need that.
But beyond all that, show me what you've seen from me that points to me as scum. I have exhausted myself in trying to come up with reasons based on everyone's arguments as to why each person would be scum and and really just trying to be transparent in all the moves I've made. I think I've either flat out stated why I've done something or whenever I've been questioned I've answered. I have nothing to hide. And I guess this part I'm more directing at Wot - if there were something to catch about me I'd think you all would have caught it by now. There's just...not. Whereas can you say that things have always added up with popstop? Sometimes the easiest answer is the right answer.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 19:46:58 GMT -5
Sorry was gone for a minute. Ribs coming out the oven always take priority Ugh. I'm trying to get some help here. It's actually a lot harder to play this when people aren't suspicious of me; it means I have to try to do something right. Popstop thinks I should look at Albie. Albie thinks I should look at popstop. @antigonerising , how would you break the tie? The one thing keeping me from conclusively putting my vote down right now is not being sure if I buy the 'everyone visited someone they think is safe' thing. But I will post what I came up with using that reasoning anyway. Looking back, Ginger had his vote on Albie b/c he felt Albie was being pressured the least out of all the people Ginger found suspicious, but was also highly suspicious of Narwhals (he seemed to think they might have been a team); he was up in the air about popstop; and he grouped you (Wot) and I together as players who made him 'wary' because we always seemed town no matter what (also noted that while he wouldn't focus on us much it was important to always keep some focus on us). LBT seemed to be his one straightforward town read. LBT seemed to think Albie and I leaned town, was null on Wot and Kunt (no update on how he felt after Ginger stepped in), and went back and forth between scum and null on popstop. Like Ginger, he thought Narwhals was scummy, but we know that neither of them visited Narwhals. Narwhals didn't really leave a lot of thoughts at the end of day 2, but one of the last things he did say was that he felt Az and popstop were the most obvious pair to him. Going back to early day 2 when he did a revised 'reads' table, he felt that Az, pop, and I were scummy, and Albie and LBT seemed townish to him. He was null on Kunt and Wot and gave no update as to how he felt post-Ginger. Assuming they all visited a person they felt was safe, Ginger would have very likely visited LBT. LBT would have visited me or Albie. Narwhals would have visited Albie or LBT. That alone points to Ginger being the NK, but for the sake of completeness I'll try to line this up with every NK scenario (remember that in all three of these scenarios, it doesn't matter who the NK visited): if the NK is Ginger, then LBT and Narwhals would both have had to visit Albie for them both to be dead. if the NK is LBT, then either Ginger or Narwhals would have had to defy the 'visit someone safe' logic in order for them both to be dead. if the NK is Narwhals, either Ginger or LBT would have had to defy the 'visit someone safe' logic in order for them both to be dead. So yeah, this line or reasoning does point to Albie. Popstop is cleared in all cases by default. But then, we know that LBT needed a replacement; what if he intentionally tried to take himself out? And Narwhals' comment about Az and popstop almost feels like a breadcrumb. I remember noting at some point that I felt like Narwhals was picking up cues from other players, what if he picked up that cue from Albie and went with it? I don't know what to do but I will say that in a plot twist I didn't expect, Albie now seems like the more obvious choice than popstop does.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 19:49:47 GMT -5
I think my decision will come down to how likely it is I think either LBT or Narwhals would have done what Albie did on N1, and intentionally target someone they thought might be loaded scum.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 20:13:07 GMT -5
Well, I'll go ahead and make this slightly more painful for everyone. Of the three of you, by end of Day 2, with Az confirmed scum, the one of you that made most sense to me as his partner was... Cynthia.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 20:23:59 GMT -5
Crap, I just remembered, if you don't send in your night action the randomizer chooses who you visit. I don't think Narwhals would have forgotten but do we think LBT could have been distracted enough to forget?
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 20:24:30 GMT -5
Well, I'll go ahead and make this slightly more painful for everyone. Of the three of you, by end of Day 2, with Az confirmed scum, the one of you that made most sense to me as his partner was... Cynthia. Erm...ok. How is that?
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 20:25:07 GMT -5
Crap, I just remembered, if you don't send in your night action the randomizer chooses who you visit. I don't think Narwhals would have forgotten but do we think LBT could have been distracted enough to forget? should add, don't think Narwhals or Ginger would have forgotten
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 20:28:04 GMT -5
Oh goddammit, Wot! >:(
You clocked Cynthia??
I was ready to send you my nudes.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 20:28:56 GMT -5
Well Vote: Albie, I guess.
Wot/Cynthia, I'l leave it to your capable hands.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 20:31:51 GMT -5
Wot I'm confused. Am I to believe that you investigated someone who ended up an NK/PGO victim or why do you still have all three of us as options? Or I guess you're just holding your cards close to your chest to see what you can get out of us.
I'm not sure how to proceed here but I'm still inclined to believe Cynthia is town. Or she is playing us really really good.
I am headed to the movies so I'll have to check in in a few hours.
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 20:34:45 GMT -5
Vote me? Trying to off me already now that you feel you've won Cynthia over. Oh wow ok I'm gonna be lynched when I get out of the movies I guess and town is going to lose again. I'll be glad for it to be over tbh.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 20:36:38 GMT -5
There's really no option, albie. Wot's the cop, and he checked Cynthia, who I don't believe is scum for one second after two days of keeping a vote on Az.
I mean, if Wot comes out and says Cynthia is scum, I guess you're in the clear!
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 20:39:17 GMT -5
Wot's the cop, and he checked Cynthia No, I didn't.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 20:40:59 GMT -5
LMAO. Oh. Hmmm.
Do I owe you nudes now?
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