Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 20:41:55 GMT -5
There's really no option, albie. Wot's the cop, and he checked Cynthia, who I don't believe is scum for one second after two days of keeping a vote on Az. I mean, if Wot comes out and says Cynthia is scum, I guess you're in the clear! he hasn't said who he's cleared. What are you even talking about.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 20:42:21 GMT -5
OMG I can't with this. I just hurt my head trying to come up with a scenario where more than one person visited popstop. It's hard enough believing even one person would. Vote: Albie
I'm pretty sure Wot is holding on to something so I'll now leave it entirely in his hands now.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 20:43:07 GMT -5
There's really no option, albie. Wot's the cop, and he checked Cynthia, who I don't believe is scum for one second after two days of keeping a vote on Az. I mean, if Wot comes out and says Cynthia is scum, I guess you're in the clear! he hasn't said who he's cleared. What are you even talking about. fuck unvote: Albiestop doing this to me
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 20:43:48 GMT -5
Oh my god. Wot please use your judgement and turn this around. From day 1 you've have a proper read on me. Can you say the same for Cynthia or popstop?
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 20:44:07 GMT -5
I'm going to go eat more ribs. Go enjoy the movies albie, we can figure this out when you get back.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 30, 2016 20:45:21 GMT -5
No honestly just vote me and get it over with. At least when I get out of the movies I'll be vindicated and not have to agonize while trying to watch XMen.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 20:50:58 GMT -5
I'm trying to answer Cynthia's question about why I suspected her while you all freak out. I'm going to have wasted a lot of typing if you all end up lynching someone before I even finish. :'(
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 20:53:03 GMT -5
Sigh. Yes,I equated you saying you suspected her with also following her, which was an automatic town read since you didn't die.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 21:20:07 GMT -5
Well, I'll go ahead and make this slightly more painful for everyone. Of the three of you, by end of Day 2, with Az confirmed scum, the one of you that made most sense to me as his partner was... Cynthia. Erm...ok. How is that? Because Narwhals told us only one scum was on Maxwagon and the other wasn't, and God knows he played way better than I did throughout the game. (That's not really my exact reason, but honestly, once Narwhals got going, he did have some good thoughts on everything and clearly was invested in the game, so, if you're reading this, props for that.) I'll present it, but clearly I'm not completely sold on this or I'd just be voting and letting this game go to hell. All three other people reading this, please feel free to poke holes in it, especially since you all have already admitted to finding someone else a better place to look. But as to why, it's been bothering me all game that you latched onto Kunt's relatively weak reasoning on D1 for voting Az and then kept your vote parked there. I asked you directly if you were dissatisfied with where your vote was parked in a weak-ass leading question that looked more like an attempt to buddy than to actually learn anything, and instead of defending why you had solidified your Az vote, you just kinda agreed with me that it was weak. Combine that with the fact that Az never pretended to give any fucks, and it starts looking to me like a nice distancing plan. If I'm right, I think the fact that we somehow managed to not lynch a sacrificial Az right away (and even managed to get rid of the jailkeeper on top of that) probably made the scum night strategy just as confused as the Town one. (His vote on you was also piggybacked crap, but that could admittedly be said about most of his votes.) Then there was the end of Day 1. You were basically absent, but when I quoted you to ask for a follow-up on your comment about Az's lack of support being troubled (which, at the time, successfully made me even more hesitant to join Azwagon), you chimed in pretty damn quickly... and then were gone again the rest of the night as we hung ourselves out to dry. By itself, this is meaningless (timing can be coincidental), but looking at our remaining suspects, both popstop and Albie were around to agonize over this decision and help us make the wrong one and you just peaced out. On Day 2, when I realized that it was my own knowledge of who was town cop that led me (and only me) to wrongly assume walker9 was jailkeeper, it started bothering me that you were perfectly content to push the walker9 = X strategy when you thought he was the cop. A roleblocked cop wouldn't have actually given us anything, and all that would do is delay his eventual death without information as soon as we picked a new target. Considering you had done a pretty painstaking analysis of all possible scenarios when we were having strategy discussions before, it seemed slightly problematic to me that you were willing to just go with this. Then later on Day 2, after you acknowledged in thread that you'd figured out I was the cop and I went ahead and confirmed that for you, only one other person also seemed to acknowledge having figured out what the two of us were talking about in thread, and that person was Az. Even though he'd been seemingly checked out most of the game: I've seen that awesomecharts and @antigonerising have inquired about my FoS on WotUNeed, and I think I may just drop that. I went back over the reads I posted early D2 and realized a possibility I hadn't thought of, and it made me want to back off that FoS. So, yeah, that's basically what I was working with. I can make what we learned Day 3 fit into that theory, but that could also be confirmation bias at play. Before we rush into whatever decision we end up making, it might be helpful for each of us to look at the thread to date and try to figure out what supports the idea that (player we think is most likely to be scum) was scum with Az, and/or what seems to work against that theory. Alternatively, I suppose we could all just agree to No Lynch so that one of us is spared the agony of having to play the endgame at all. ... but not yet so please don't come in and rush vote that either, haha.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 21:47:28 GMT -5
Wow. I feel like I just read the ending of an Agatha Christie novel. I have no idea. I've been confused all game. So your theory is Cynthia picked up that you were the cop, realized Az was a lost cause, and kept his vote there as a result? At least your explanation provides for why Az basically punted D2. I'm just gonna Unvote: Albie and curl myself into a fetal position now... WotUNeed , are you going to leave us in the dark as to who you followed? If Cynthia was your lead, why didn't you act on it?
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 30, 2016 21:57:15 GMT -5
WotUNeed , are you going to leave us in the dark as to who you followed? If Cynthia was your lead, why didn't you act on it? If I admit to being able to clear you or Albie as Town, two of you can vote and stop analyzing things and just tunnel on making your case, leaving only me and the cleared townie to be tortured souls. If I admit I can't clear any of you, I lose some leverage in how I get to read everyone's discussion going forward. So I'm willing to answer both of your questions, but not just yet.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2016 23:00:49 GMT -5
ok so I'll respond to both of WotUNeed's posts in one. Being absent for Max's lynch was not a good look, I will admit. I can't exactly remember what I was doing that night, but I recall trying to check in when I could, then after that last time I didn't get back before the lynch. I also didn't really have a great reason for immediately voting for Az and I think Albie questioned that right away as well. At the time my vote was still an RVS on pop, and I have an irrational hatred of RVS now, so I was overly eager to move out of it. I didn't necessarily expect my vote to remain parked there, but eventually a very weak reason to be voting for him began to formulate into 'well there's no one else I feel that strongly about right now' and then turned into 'this is my strongest scum read.' Az himself didn't help matters at all, of course. I had singled Max out as likely being town because he actually recommended making Az player X, and since discussion had whittled down our potential lynch to Max, Az, and Narwhals, this would have increased Max's chances of being lynched on D1. I couldn't see a mafia player actually reducing the potential for a mislynch like that, but unfortunately most people missed that post and I wasn't around to repeat it and push that angle more. With regard to walker (before we knew he wasn't the cop), we were kind of damned if we do, damned if we don't there. Roleblocked cop = useless, but nonroleblocked cop = good as dead. At that point, walker seemed the surest bet as far as preventing people from possibly visiting an armed PGO, which was my main reason for liking that target X idea in the first place. That Az post, I couldn't tell you what he was talking about there, but sensible scum logic would dictate that if you know who the cop is, you kill him. You're still here, though. No Lynch is an option but you do realize that probably means you're the one who is spared the agony...or is that why you suggested that? lol. And now I feel ridiculously stupid because I completely spaced on No Lynch being an option, which means if I'd just kept my big fat mouth shut we could have agreed on that and maybe you would have still been here on D4 with one more result. I think I'm just about dizzy from looking at different things over and over again or trying to find something, anything I might've missed so I'm going to go ahead and just commit to Vote: Albie because it's too convoluted imagining that more than one person visited popstop with the hope of 'leaving a trail,' as it were. I worked through the scenarios if we assume everyone went for safe and albie's the only reasonable conclusion from that. And if I try considering that anyone forgot to send a night action for even one more second, my head will explode. Albie if you're town and I have just fucked this up, I sincerely apologize for doing so while you're still at the movies.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 23:52:05 GMT -5
Wot, with your input, I've looked more skeptically ISOing Cynthia and albie. In a cursory overview, I am noticing that Albie at least gave the appearance of inquiring and looking for scum in ways that Cynthia didn't. He's really the only one in this game that switched the vote around on D1, whereas Cynthia stayed on Az. I do notice that it is albie who defends Az regarding Cynthia's vote, but that seems to be the last time he ever defends him. I pointed out Cynthia's focus on inactive players as possible scum D1 instead of questioning any active players, and she didn't really have a strong answer for this. Albie made an effort to answer every question - even mine - I think he was the only one - even though it was Cynthia's idea in Pizza Boy. In retrospect, it's striking to me Cynthia just ignored it and discussed pure set-up. Albie also tried to get conversation jump-started near the beginning of the game. I'm looking at Cynthia's plan from a scum perspective for the first time this game, but I'm still having a hard time seeing of how it would have been a benefit to scum, other than to dilute the power roles. But even then, Cynthia couldn't know who the cop was when selecting that alphabetizing plan. Notably, Az is against any plan at all, which makes more sense. Albie is against Cynthia's plan specifically. If there was distancing between Az and Cynthia, Az did it for his part as well, placing Cynthia as scum on D1, while giving a town read to albie and me. Despite his non-answer when I asked him about voting for narwhals, albie was otherwise here at the end of D1 pushing for people to make a decision. I guess all this is to say, I do see how Cynthia's play could be mafia - I don't think until now I've had the proper mindset of ever thinking of her as scum, so things I might have dismissed before might make more sense in context now. Anyhow, I just really focused on D1 with this reading. I haven't done D2 yet. Will look at it all tomorrow, but I know all of you mentioned considering me as part of a scum team, which is how I knew someone I thought was town had to be pushing a scum association that they could use today. Side note: May 23rd - how did you know that was leg day, Albie?
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 30, 2016 23:56:48 GMT -5
Oh now hold up - I just thought of that alphabetized list - Az is ahead of Cynthia! So there's no chance Cynthia would be copped in that plan. I suppose that might be something.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 31, 2016 0:00:36 GMT -5
That Az post, I couldn't tell you what he was talking about there, but sensible scum logic would dictate that if you know who the cop is, you kill him. You're still here, though. Oh hm this actually makes sense.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 31, 2016 0:12:23 GMT -5
Ugh, I need some ZZZs. I'll circle back in the morning. Hope you enjoyed the movie, albie.
Also, Wot, I hereby rescind any promise of nudes due to your target reveal tease >:(
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 1:56:12 GMT -5
The movie was great! Go see it. Magneto is hot. Ok so, I’m still here. That’s a start. Obviously I’m not going to ISO myself and I’ve done this already for popstop especially in connection with Az.
I’ve long been trying to sustain an argument in my head for how Cynthia couldn’t be town. And now being able to connect her to a legit partner has made the path even clearer. I actually think it makes more sense than popstop. From the get-go she hops on Kunt’s weak vote of Az in order to start distancing. I think she felt safe in that which is why it wasn’t deemed necessary that she be present for the D1 lynch. Especially when viewed from the perspective of how the PGO armed themselves. It makes sense that Az would arm himself N1 and Cynthia N2 especially once we knew the Jailkeeper had been mislynched. Maybe they thought Az would get copped which would then take the cop out too. It turned out that no one visited Az so ultimately that didn’t matter. What does matter is a point that Cynthia herself brought up that players would visit someone they felt safest visiting. Aside from Wot, I don’t think any other player has been more unanimously thought of as town than Cynthia. You were firmly placed as a town read by LBT and Ginger (more town that not anyway). Not exactly by Narwhals though so he very well could be the NK especially when you’re able to point the finger back at someone like me when he turns up dead the next day.
Now Cynthia you can’t seem to get out of the assumption that they all visited a person they thought would be safe. Why wouldn’t you consider that? Does it seem any more farfetched than the fluke of, say, lynching the Jailkeeper on D1?
I could take your NK scenarios and plop them onto you and they work just the same so thanks for doing that work for me. But you know what also works? Thinking of you as scum in connection with Az. As I was starting to say above, N1 Az arms himself but no one visits him. Why would they? We’re all going to visit someone we thought was safe right? Or go with Walker9 because people forget they had a choice after Max was lynched. I don’t think I ever got an answer from Narwhals as to why he visited popstop (his stated answer was a joke) on N1 but it may well have been for a similar reason to mine for visiting you. I can’t say that for certain, of course, but it does bring it more in the realm of possibility given that while Narwhals maybe didn’t think popstop was the scummiest, he did have him as scum for most of D1 and I wouldn’t say he was Narwhals’ safest town read going into N1. So, ok you didn’t arm yourself N1 because I visited you but then come N2 when everyone feels its safe to visit you they do and boom. I’ve already stated above why its not necessary that Narwhals would visit you since he could well have been the NK.
Add to this the fact that you’ve mostly taken people’s leads in finding scum and then expounded on that. For instance, jumping on Kunt’s Az vote on D1, jumping on Kunt’s idea of a coordination plan, helping him work out why it wouldn’t work and then super expanding on it when Wot comes in and gives it new life. You aren’t around for the D1 lynch. The D2 lynch you’re well in the mix and I’m starting to think more and more what I mentioned earlier that your vote was on Az on D2 at first to continue distancing but then as the case started building you knew it might not reflect well on you if you suddenly shifted targets. You stayed committed and ultimately when Az was lynched well it didn’t matter too much because you could still take out a number of players whether by NK or by shooting them. Then D3, the tide is swinging against popstop so you’re all about it but when it looks like the tide shifts to me you hop on that one no hesitation and then take it back. And now you’re back to me again. We have until June 2 but you seem to be unsure and yet holding steady to me. Don’t you want to get it right instead of being hasty? I think town Cynthia would.
LOL popstop – you always say not to forget the glutes so I figured it was a safe guess.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 31, 2016 9:29:56 GMT -5
Will be running around trying to adult most of today, but I will check in and stop playing coy about what help, if any, I can provide from N2. Last two questions before my cards all go on the table:
Having had time to consider everything we know so far, which theory is most plausible of who our final Mafia member is? (That is to say, if forced to vote now, who do you try to lynch?)
Do you think I visited popstop, Albie, or neither? (This is a less important question, but you've all been so good about humoring an old, clueless man so far today, so one last indulgence...)
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 31, 2016 12:51:43 GMT -5
ISOing again - jesus christ, Albie/Cynthia, were you guys trying to compete for longest word walls? OK, well here's my submission for that prize ;) I decided to look at Cynthia and Albie each as if I knew they were dirty, dirty scum who must be punished and came up with some observations: Cynthia: 1. Az listed Cynthia as the most expendable player on D1. In light of how much Cynthia had contributed at that point, compared to say, Libra or narwhals, it just stands out as a strange choice, and could be an argument for distancing. At the time, I just credited it to OMGUS for her vote on him (more distancing). 2. In this post, Cynthia says the thing that works in Az's favor is that he had his vote on Max for awhile on D1, but when I checked, Az had never voted for Max prior to the chaotic D1 finish. 3. On D2 - this is where I wanted to see who seemed to be building a case against me for D3. Both albie and Cynthia position me as a possible mafia accessory. Cynthia seems to hit a little harder on it. She tries to show that my waffling on Az might be an indication of affinity with him, and mentions my "singular focus on Max" on D1 as an issue. When I question that, she hits back that it's not just the Max focus, but the "totality of these things" - that because I didn't switch my vote, it was a deliberate way for Az to duck and cover, and that Az putting his town vote on me was an obvious show of affiliation. She brings up the possibility of a popstop wagon, perhaps knowing that Az will turn up scum, and making me an easy pivot. I feel I can imagine Cynthia's scheming behind the scenes to target me. "Az, you just stay out of the way and let popstop hang himself..." Finally, she tries to use my defensive reaction as further reason to cast suspicion. 4. Even come D3, I wonder if she wants to build a case for me. When I mention the motivation for people visiting town on N2, not scum members, she questions it (though later recapitulates). But then she also seemed pretty eager to hop onto my vote for albie. What I find really interested is that I assumed Wot had checked Cynthia out, thereby clearing her, and making albie my only option. But Cynthia would have had no easy answer there. But what's most interesting is Cynthia's reaction when Wot says he considered her his greatest suspicion - she indicates uncertainty, or at least what I'm reading as uncertainty. When I look at my own reaction thinking Wot had checked me, it was relief! Hooray! Wot looked at me and now knows I'm town! But Cynthia had a much more muted reaction. OK, so I'm going to shake all this off, and try to read back through and think of albie as mafia. Albie: 1. If albie is mafia, role claiming makes sense as something he'd choose to propose. 2. On D1, albie initially gives Az a null read. On an Az vs. Max question, albie basically punts here and said there wasn't enough info to get a read on either of them. Side note: It's interesting that when it's suggested Albie is paired with Az, albie's reaction is that he would know better than to "flat out come into defense of [his] partner" and then never defends Az again. In fact, albie doesn't mention Az for the rest of the game. 3. I asked albie about his trajectory on Max moving from null to weak town. Albie's answer is not definitive. And so it is occurring to me where albie is more tentative with his thoughts, Cynthia is more definite. Albie is very much pushing for a decision on a lynch, more than any other player on D1. If Az was his partner with three votes on him, would he be pushing so hard for a lynch? And for my comments on albie's non-answer to me asking why he voted for narwhals, would he have been more forceful about narwhals if he was Az's scum partner? 4. End of D1 is where albie starts to consider me as potential mafia, when he mentions a popstop-narwhals pairing. He'll extend that into D2 within one of his first posts. If albie's mafia, such an observation would be a misdirection from an albie-Az team. His read on Az is still null. That said, albie kinds of drops the popstop-anyone connection and considers alternatives before returning to it and dropping a vote on me. I didn't really say anything about this vote, just expressed a frustration on a comment about my "terrible play" on D1. Albie writes a very long response, which immediately put the FOS on me - why was there such a strong reaction to my innocuous post? For everyone who came for me with my defensiveness, it sure seemed like albie reacted rather defensively himself. So after looking at all this, my overall impression is that Cynthia kept a pretty hardline game going. She kept her vote on Az the entire time, and refused to budge. Wot had not copped Az, where such a strong stance must justify that. Yet, Cynthia did not seem to look at anyone else on D2. Albie was as scattered as a puppy with ADHD considering a narwhals-popstop scum team as well as a Cynthia-Wot scum team (before LBT brought it up). ...which is the exact way I've felt - scattered. Albie's play aligns more with mine. I think I'm probably more inclined to believe he is town for that reason. As far as Az, it's interesting we have such a 180 between how these two dealt with Az. Albie completely ignores him for much of the game. Cynthia only pays him attention. Which is weirder? The wrinkle, as Cynthia pointed out, is that if Cynthia knew Wot was the cop, why not kill him? It is for this reason, that while my vote would at this point go to Cynthia, it is not a definitive vote. WotUNeed when I saw the cop hadn't been killed, I was relieved because I assumed I was the most obvious person to investigate and I would be cleared. Even if that's not true, at least thank you for making me think it so I could play this game when I'm not in defensive mode. But having read through the game, albie did have his vote on you and was more suspicious of you than either Cynthia or me on D2, so you might have wanted to follow that lead. Or you might have decided to play it safe and visit someone you felt leaned town. I'm going to say you visited me even if that's just wishful thinking.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 13:25:02 GMT -5
Sorry guys its been one of those meetings days. Got a lunch meeting soon too so wanted to get this out before I left.
WotUNeed I’m having a hard time answering your first question because despite the case that has been put in front of me for Cynthia I can’t shake the feeling from popstop. But the thing that is holding me back from saying 100% vote for popstop is I’m not convinced that he would vote out Az on D2. Popstop was the hammer after all and he made it very clear that he was willing to do so but it’s not like there weren’t a whole bunch of hours left in the day before deadline. It wasn’t crunch time so although its plausible that when they saw Az was done for popstop put him out of his misery, I’m not sure I buy that given that there was still plenty of time to turn things around if they’d wanted to. Here, I’m more inclined to believe popstop was in the same spot I was in on D1 where he was frustrated at the situation given that his read on Az had been not scum for so long and yet here went all his theories out the window – he was just ready to get it over with (although, again, there was still so much time left before deadline). It probably helps that with Az gone and popstop having hammered him it would connect them less as scum partners which a lot of us had been doing and therefore popstop would be glad to get rid of Az even if he turned up town. I don’t know why my gut is telling me that popstop did all this as town.
As for your second question, firstly, I’m not sure why you’ve phrased this the way you have where you don’t include Cynthia as an option of checking her out. It’s me or popstop or neither. At any rate, I think you visited popstop based on what I’ve now outlined above. I only say that because if I’m now leaning towards Cynthia as scum then you would have died last night. A part of me thinks you visited me since you are alive and I had my vote on you though. Not sure that I’ve helped you at all. I honestly think I have less of a handle on this game now – not that I’ve ever really had one – than I ever have. I’m beyond confused now and if I go back and forth any longer I’m going to explode. I hope whatever information you have helps us get to a decision soon even if its at the risk of swaying things back to me getting lynched. I’m serious. I’m ready to be done.
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popstop
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Post by popstop on May 31, 2016 14:26:43 GMT -5
4. But what's most interesting is Cynthia's reaction when Wot says he considered her his greatest suspicion - she indicates uncertainty, or at least what I'm reading as uncertainty. When I look at my own reaction thinking Wot had checked me, it was relief! Hooray! Wot looked at me and now knows I'm town! But Cynthia had a much more muted reaction. Meh, Wot, I just realized this is specious. Because if you did check her out, that would shake her out as town, so gauging her reaction makes no sense.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 20:09:42 GMT -5
This stupid game has been in my head all day and I haven't been able to focus on work because it kept bothering me so I ended up going back to D1 and looking at Cynthia’s play v popstop's play. I had already scrutinized popstops' D1 play for most of D2 so I actually ended up looking more closely at Cynthia. My feeling is that this post could have been the framework for how she and Az would have planned to play it. She later goes on and details out her coordination plan as a follow up to Wot putting it back on the table. I almost feel like the scum team took the thread as their sounding board where they laid out the many options they had for killing us and then let us choose how we’d die. The D1 mislynch of the JK threw a wrench in those plans probably but there was a lot for them to work with anyway. She later explains that 1 active scum and 1 inactive scum is a common tactic – could she have been telling on herself right in front of our faces?
Her votes on that Day were: Popstop – RVS vote for being a thirst trap Az – follows Kunt’s lead
Here Max posts about PGO arming scenarios vs. no NK and proposes that scum might not arm themselves on N1 which led me to believe what I’ve been saying about only one of them or none of them arming themselves on D1. This post stands out to me as a distancing tactic. Az comes in and uses the excuse of scum throwing the coordination plan out there as a reason to vote Cynthia. But Kunt had been the first one to actually suggest it, Cynthia engaged it and later fully developed her plan but not before Wot brought it back up and developed his own plan. So why choose Cynthia specifically?
More distancing from Az in preferring Wot’s plan over Cynthia’s. But how engaged had Az even really been to have read into this enough to even draw such a conclusion? Her concern is that we’ll waffle over who to lynch and then when it comes down to the wire we’ll mislynch. Well we did just that. Everyone did kind of lay out their sliding scales as per Cynthia’s request.
LBT’s suspicion of me for the weird HTML usage got several people talking including Wot and Max who talk about it a bit and then later Cynthia comes back to it as well bringing it up as something that strikes her but not sure what to make of it.
Here she realizes that if we lynch the JK then the XY plan would have to be off but not before lightly suggesting that the JK role claim at L-2 or L-1 even though she had gone in depth earlier on how it would be so bad to role claim on D1 and give scum that target. Even if Max had role claimed and we ended up believing him and therefore didn’t lynch him, scum would be at the ready to NK him at that point.
Cynthia comes in and tallies up popstop’s graph. I’m seeing now where they started writing the narrative to eventually be able to link me to Az and putting all of these ideas in our heads where we can’t help but look away from Az as scummy – my thought is that they were prepping for a D1 Az lynch and being ok with moving on as a 1 person scum team – at least the plot would already be set for me to be linked to Az when he flipped scum. All the while mind you, keeping me firmly placed in her town column. Az didn’t get lynched on D1 and this didn’t play out until D2 but it starts to seem more and more planned out the more I read the thread over. I fully admit that I could be reading what I want into all of this but I’m putting this out there as I’ve been doing even if I’m completely wrong because I want to make sure I’m looking at all angles. It's fair to say that the more I look at it and think of it in this way the more I believe it, but that's why there is more than just me playing this game. Take this and interpret it how you will. So yeah my suspicion is that they were ready to get Az out as he maybe didn’t have time to focus on the game (well, actually he did say this in thread but didn’t ask for a replacement) so instead they worked around it and tried to set the table for Cynthia looking town for being on the Az lynch which was probably expected to happen on D1 but then didn’t. Had it gone that way, I think Cynthia would have been looked at in an even more town light the following day once Az flipped scum. It now seems obvious when you consider that her second to last post before the end of D1 was her counting down how much time we had until the lynch and then her last post before the lynch was that she questions the fact that Az has no scum partner to defend him and states that his play has been nothing but distracting (hmm) and then throws it out there that Narwhals might be a lynch option for her. But she’d be willing to leave her vote on Az with the option to change her mind to Narwhals – but then never comes back.
As I was doing this I was trying to see the ways in which popstop's actions could be town but I came up pretty much back to where I've been.
He points about it being easy for mafia to hide in set up conversations: which I find interesting now that we’re looking at Cynthia.
This is the first of two times where he reminds everyone to submit their night actions or our actions become compulsive.
Popstop’s no lynch suggestion is striking me as more town-based in retrospect because in really thinking about it, had we not mislynched we would still have Max on D2 and even though we wouldn’t have a flip to tell us anything that night – its likely that scum wouldn’t have armed themselves with the JK still around and then Wot would have been safe to investigate someone that night.
Here he points out that Az is owning up to being defensive but then isn’t doing anything to change it. He made it a point to say that the Az wagon is not convincing him.
And then during the mayhem that was the last few hours before end of D1, the fact that popstop was around and trying to move the vote while Az was the lynch wagon doesn’t leave my mind given that we now know Az was scum and Max was JK but I think I’ve talked at length about this ever since D2 started so my intent was to more fully look at the above scenario with Cynthia in mind as scum instead of popstop. At this point, I don’t know how farfetched it seems to me that all of that planning went into the scum strategy. But it does make sense that if Az was always pretty much checked out of this game that his scum partner would have done the heavy lifting and in weighing the two options I firmly believe Cynthia has done heavier lifting than has popstop with respect to keeping the scum team afloat.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 20:15:20 GMT -5
And Wot I'm hoping that you're coming back soon with that nugget of information that you're promising. And honestly if we don't get this solved tonight or tomorrow morning I'll likely end up lynched because I'm not going to be around for most of tomorrow as I will be entertaining clients most afternoon through evening and I won't be around at all on Thursday as I'll be with them literally all day through 10PM my time so...that sucks.
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 31, 2016 20:33:50 GMT -5
And Wot I'm hoping that you're coming back soon with that nugget of information that you're promising. And honestly if we don't get this solved tonight or tomorrow morning I'll likely end up lynched because I'm not going to be around for most of tomorrow as I will be entertaining clients most afternoon through evening and I won't be around at all on Thursday as I'll be with them literally all day through 10PM my time so...that sucks. Would have liked everyone's feedback first, but I suppose I'm as ready as anyone for this to just go wherever it's gonna go, and since tomorrow is my first day back to work after a vacation, I expect to be completely slammed with catching up on shit and not really available either, so, eh... ... How pissed would you be to learn I investigated Narwhals? ... Because that was gonna be my original N2 strategy, but once Az flipped scum, after I'd spent all that time looking at the Az/Cynthia/Narwhals/popstop combos, that one just legit stopped making sense to me. I considered investigating Cynthia, but honestly, having confirmed for her that I was Cop, I kinda just assumed that if she were scum, I'd end up dead, so no point in checking her when, if that turned into a Mafia read, I'd just be taking it to my grave. Gotta admit, I still can't make that logic stick when I consider Cynthia as possible scum who chose to leave the Cop alive, but that's the beauty of WIFOM, I guess. Perhaps counting on me not being able to positively ID her since she knew her PGO would take me out if I did target her? Meh. Still seems like an odd risk, but there you go... I'm cutting myself off before I get on this chaotic thought merry-go-round. I probably should have investigated popstop, in retrospect, but I didn't expect us to be at MYLO today. So I went back to my N1 strategy of investigating someone who wasn't at the top of my scum reads, but who I figured, if I did somehow still exist in the game today, I could go from town reading to hard clearing... and who, if I had misread completely and did happen to come back scum, had little reason to want me out of the game (short of the possibility that Az's comment I referenced earlier was confirmation that the scumteam had ID'ed me as Cop, but that'd be a risk no matter who his partner was). So, yes, I investigated Albie, and he's a confirmed townie. Sorry to not have better news for you, Albie. Afraid you're the only other person left in this game I'm legit not helping.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 20:53:24 GMT -5
Tortured Souls we shall remain then but honestly I am slightly less tortured for knowing that I don't have to focus on defending myself and making myself look more scummy in the process but what do I do now LOL
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popstop
6x Platinum Member
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Advancing the Mountain Time Zone for all mankind
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Post by popstop on May 31, 2016 20:55:39 GMT -5
Wot/albie, it's going to be up to you two to believe I'm town, I guess. I suppose it depends on how much you really want to believe two town members chose to visit me. I hope you make the right choice.
Vote: Cynthia
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 21:04:30 GMT -5
Sigh...she keeps disappearing at the wrong times. It's almost a day since she's been by :(
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 31, 2016 21:13:04 GMT -5
I'm now going through today's posts to try to comment on whatever's here... probably just a few posts at a time... Hmm ok I'm inclined to believe you @antigonerising because I visited you N1 and didn't die. You've probably figured this out by now, but this is meaningless. Both popstop and Cynthia had visitors Night 1 that survived, so whichever was scum, there's proof neither was armed N1, so either could have been armed N2. Unfortunately, I can't clear it up for you, Wot. I originally sent a request to visit Cynthia, but I switched it to Ginger on the chance Cynthia bussed Az. Is anyone going to be logical and look at the deaths? These are people who visited someone they thought was town. Every single person on D2 places on FOS on me and two of them are going to visit me N2? Does that make sense to you? Come on, people If this is a bluff, it's a good one. As scum, popstop had three basic options here: -Claim to visit Albie and try to get Cynthia lynched, risk me having investigated Cynthia and recognizing this as a lie -Claim to visit Cynthia and try to get Albie lynched, risk me having investigated Albie and recognizing this as a lie -Pick someone else ... but claiming to have originally requested to visit Cynthia only to have rethought the decision and reverted to the Kunt/Ginger slot? That's either honest or a very clever lie. It's risk-free for scum, because I can't confirm this was or wasn't his night action, but it sounds like a townie trying to figure things out.
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Albie
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Post by Albie on May 31, 2016 21:22:56 GMT -5
Wot what do you make of the fact that Cynthia did indeed admit to knowing you were the cop in-thread but only alluded to it enough to make sure you'd catch her drift?
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WotUNeed
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Post by WotUNeed on May 31, 2016 21:25:09 GMT -5
(Of course, the irony there is that, if popstop is Town and gave a correct account of his N2 actions, then visiting Cynthia and getting himself killed would have made today ever so much easier.) Crap, I just remembered, if you don't send in your night action the randomizer chooses who you visit. I don't think Narwhals would have forgotten but do we think LBT could have been distracted enough to forget? I kinda think we would have gotten a deadline reminder before they would be randomized, but I just went back to look at the end of D2 and realized there was never any particular deadline set in the first place, haha. But I think it's safe to say the day started after everyone did whatever they were gonna do. You clocked Cynthia?? I was ready to send you my nudes. I don't know if I should interpret this as giving you towncred because you were legit frustrated I couldn't clear you or an odd quick-on-the-draw assumption because you knew I couldn't really have cleared you. LMAO. Oh. Hmmm. Do I owe you nudes now? ... but again, if this is a bluff, it's a good one.
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