Billboard Hot 100: 09/24/2016

[Mike is BAD]

Perfect Illusion will debut and peak at #2 9/30.

[Az Paynter]

TBH I could see the opening week for 'Perfect Illusion' playing out like 'Rise', especially if 'Closer' takes back the iTunes #1 before the tracking week finishes.

[Deleted]

[bigbertha]

Based on its most recent updates on Kworb. Gaga probably won't sell more than 150k and Closer will return to #1 by tomorrow morning.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

I hope the video comes out Monday or tomorrow or something. May as well milk this week, give it a good debut and go from there.

[Old-school 72]

I will be surprised if Perfect Illusion sticks around til next week in the Top 10. The Gaga fans will buy it, but I don't see it being huge. It's not great. She hasn't had a bigger hit in how many years? I say a debut within the top 10 is gonna happen but then fall very quickly.

[Harx]

Every day Hymn For The Weekend gains are smaller and smaller... :/

[atg]

Attachment DeletedIAttachment DeletedAttachment Deleted
Yeah perfect illusion won't go to #1

[MTSChart21]

Credit to: www.kworb.net/airadio

Songs with *** dropped or added a format so their updates are completely incorrect

[Ravi]

"Cold Water" and "Heathens" look pretty darn close this week..........

[badrobot]

Perfect Illusion is already back down to #2 on kworb. I don't think it will even make the top ten on the hot 100.

[Harx]

WOW at Hymn For The Weekend! Nice boost! Please keep it up, you have a Year End list you need to land on!

I really want Send My Love to die already so she can move on with, hopefully, "Water Under The Bridge". Same for "Needed Me", I'm nervously awaiting "Love on the brain" to impact...

I already heard "Perfect Illusion" and "The Greatest" on the radio where I live. PI will probably debut higher, but TG will have longer run in the top 10 I guess...

[Mike is BAD]

The Greatest got 45k sales this week, but mix it with YouTube and it's looking for a Top 40 debut. Perfect Illusion will probably debut at #4 and pull a Focus

[Au$tin]

Sept 10, 2016 13:18:33 GMT -5 Mike is BAD said:

The Greatest got 45k sales this week, but mix it with YouTube and it's looking for a Top 40 debut. Perfect Illusion will probably debut at #4 and pull a Focus

PI is not debuting top five. That's just not happening. Top ten maybe.

[MTSChart21]

So, this is my prediction for this week. Probably won't be as accurate as Ravi 's predictions usually are, but these should be pretty good too (since he gave me some tips in a PM)

(Oh, and you might notice that I didn't round the sales/airplay/streaming numbers to 5's)

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Closer	211	93	40.4	66,400
2-3	Heathens	86	66	20.9	33,600
2-3	Cold Water	58	107	19.4	33,300
4	Cheap Thrills	43	143	11	28,200
5	Don’t Let Me Down	32	90	14.8	24,900
6-9	Ride	30	113	10.5	23,400
6-9	We Don't Talk Anymore	52	66	13	23,200
6-9	This Is What You Came For	25	102	12.2	23,100
6-9	Send My Love	29	138	7.3	23,100
10	Needed Me	27	79	14.2	22,700
11-12	One Dance	20	97	11.8	21,800
11-12	Treat You Better	30	95	10.6	21,700
13	Let Me Love You	48	43	14	21,300

- Heathens and Cold Water are pretty close this week, but Heathens looks to have the advantage.
- DLMD should be staying at #5.
- Ride, WDTA, TIWYCF, and SML are all in a close battle for #6, but Ride has the best chance of getting it. WDTA should be entering the top 10! :)
- One Dance and Treat You Better are both probably leaving the top 10 this week and battling for the #11 position.

(Side note: Let me know if you want me to add borders on the table or if you want me to keep it like it is)

[Harx]

Sept 10, 2016 14:45:37 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

So, this is my prediction for this week. Probably won't be as accurate as Ravi 's predictions usually are, but these should be pretty good too (since he gave me some tips in a PM)

(Oh, and you might notice that I didn't round the sales/airplay/streaming numbers to 5's)

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Closer	211	93	40.4	66,400
2-3	Heathens	86	66	20.9	33,600
2-3	Cold Water	58	107	19.4	33,300
4	Cheap Thrills	43	143	11	28,200
5	Don’t Let Me Down	32	90	14.8	24,900
6-9	Ride	30	113	10.5	23,400
6-9	We Don't Talk Anymore	52	66	13	23,200
6-9	This Is What You Came For	25	102	12.2	23,100
6-9	Send My Love	29	138	7.3	23,100
10	Needed Me	27	79	14.2	22,700
11-12	One Dance	20	97	11.8	21,800
11-12	Treat You Better	30	95	10.6	21,700
13	Let Me Love You	48	43	14	21,300

- Heathens and Cold Water are pretty close this week, but Heathens looks to have the advantage.
- DLMD should be staying at #5.
- Ride, WDTA, TIWYCF, and SML are all in a close battle for #6, but Ride has the best chance of getting it. WDTA should be entering the top 10! :)
- One Dance and Treat You Better are both probably leaving the top 10 this week and battling for the #11 position.

(Side note: Let me know if you want me to add borders on the table or if you want me to keep it like it is)

Good riddance for Treat You Better. I think WDTA is actually slowly growing on me so I'll definetely prefer that song in the top 10 (although for the most part I still find it kinda boring).

As for the table, I'd vote for leaving it the old way

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2016 14:45:37 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

So, this is my prediction for this week. Probably won't be as accurate as Ravi 's predictions usually are, but these should be pretty good too (since he gave me some tips in a PM)

(Oh, and you might notice that I didn't round the sales/airplay/streaming numbers to 5's)

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Closer	211	93	40.4	66,400
2-3	Heathens	86	66	20.9	33,600
2-3	Cold Water	58	107	19.4	33,300
4	Cheap Thrills	43	143	11	28,200
5	Don’t Let Me Down	32	90	14.8	24,900
6-9	Ride	30	113	10.5	23,400
6-9	We Don't Talk Anymore	52	66	13	23,200
6-9	This Is What You Came For	25	102	12.2	23,100
6-9	Send My Love	29	138	7.3	23,100
10	Needed Me	27	79	14.2	22,700
11-12	One Dance	20	97	11.8	21,800
11-12	Treat You Better	30	95	10.6	21,700
13	Let Me Love You	48	43	14	21,300

- Heathens and Cold Water are pretty close this week, but Heathens looks to have the advantage.
- DLMD should be staying at #5.
- Ride, WDTA, TIWYCF, and SML are all in a close battle for #6, but Ride has the best chance of getting it. WDTA should be entering the top 10! :)
- One Dance and Treat You Better are both probably leaving the top 10 this week and battling for the #11 position.

(Side note: Let me know if you want me to add borders on the table or if you want me to keep it like it is)

So many artists doubling up at the top of the charts lately.  Rihanna at 8 and 10 as well as a song written for her at 4.  The Chainsmokers at 1 and 5.  Bieber at 3 and 13.  TOP at 2 and 6.  I'm amazed at just how much the public has been clinging to the same pop stars for so much of the year.  There seem to be very few one hit wonders this year aside from Lukas Graham and Desiigner (if their singles continue to lose their momentum).

Also, DIE, TYB!  DIE!

[badrobot]

I'd suggest sticking with rounding the values to 5s. It's a much better approach when you are making guesses -- being overly specific conveys a false sense of accuracy. Ravi knew what he was doing.

[MTSChart21]

Sept 10, 2016 20:47:53 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I'd suggest sticking with rounding the values to 5s. It's a much better approach when you are making guesses -- being overly specific conveys a false sense of accuracy. Ravi knew what he was doing.

True. I debated about that but chose against it.

Starting next week, I will round to 5's.

[truemusicreviews]

Honestly, I'm surprised that all of you thought Gaga was going to debut at #1, even before the track came out. Her starpower is faded a lot since her prime, and I'm not sure if she's even capable of putting out a hit anymore.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Justin Timberlake debuted at number one and his peak was arguably ten years ago. It wasn't unreasonable to think Gaga could.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Sept 10, 2016 23:15:26 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Justin Timberlake debuted at number one and his peak was arguably ten years ago. It wasn't unreasonable to think Gaga could.

not with closer around tho

[ListenToItTwice]

Drake's streak in the Top 10 to end? I was hoping he'd break Katy Perry's record; at least he holds the male record.

[jarhys]

Sept 10, 2016 14:45:37 GMT -5 MTSChart21 said:

So, this is my prediction for this week. Probably won't be as accurate as Ravi 's predictions usually are, but these should be pretty good too (since he gave me some tips in a PM)

(Oh, and you might notice that I didn't round the sales/airplay/streaming numbers to 5's)

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Closer	211	93	40.4	66,400
2-3	Heathens	86	66	20.9	33,600
2-3	Cold Water	58	107	19.4	33,300
4	Cheap Thrills	43	143	11	28,200
5	Don’t Let Me Down	32	90	14.8	24,900
6-9	Ride	30	113	10.5	23,400
6-9	We Don't Talk Anymore	52	66	13	23,200
6-9	This Is What You Came For	25	102	12.2	23,100
6-9	Send My Love	29	138	7.3	23,100
10	Needed Me	27	79	14.2	22,700
11-12	One Dance	20	97	11.8	21,800
11-12	Treat You Better	30	95	10.6	21,700
13	Let Me Love You	48	43	14	21,300

- Heathens and Cold Water are pretty close this week, but Heathens looks to have the advantage.
- DLMD should be staying at #5.
- Ride, WDTA, TIWYCF, and SML are all in a close battle for #6, but Ride has the best chance of getting it. WDTA should be entering the top 10! :)
- One Dance and Treat You Better are both probably leaving the top 10 this week and battling for the #11 position.

(Side note: Let me know if you want me to add borders on the table or if you want me to keep it like it is)

WOW, I didn't expect We Don't Talk Anymore could reach top 10.
It will become Charlie Puth's second top 10 and first as lead artist.
It will also outshine his first two singles Marvin Gaye(#21) and One Call Away(#12).

[Sherane Lamar]

Will Fade debut on the Hot 100?

That video is like... the best thing I've ever seen.

[jayhawk1117]

So Perfect Illusion is only 10 percent higher than number 3 on iTunes so....Top ten is almost out of the questino now.

[felipe]

Sept 10, 2016 23:15:26 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Justin Timberlake debuted at number one and his peak was arguably ten years ago. It wasn't unreasonable to think Gaga could.

But wasn't Justin's last album the year's best seller or something? Gaga has been flopping for a while now and that makes quite a difference. We can see from first day sales that Gaga still has a loyal fanbase anticipating her releases, but most people have moved already and it's hard to get a #1 without the larger crowd aboard.

[Dylan :)]

Sept 11, 2016 7:37:50 GMT -5 felipe said:

Sept 10, 2016 23:15:26 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Justin Timberlake debuted at number one and his peak was arguably ten years ago. It wasn't unreasonable to think Gaga could.

But wasn't Justin's last album the year's best seller or something? Gaga has been flopping for a while now and that makes quite a difference. We can see from first day sales that Gaga still has a loyal fanbase anticipating her releases, but most people have moved already and it's hard to get a #1 without the larger crowd aboard.

I don't think most people have moved on, people just don't like the song. If Gaga releases a song that the public likes, they'll buy it and it'll become a hit. PI just doesn't seem to be a song that a casual listener/non fan will enjoy.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Sept 11, 2016 7:37:50 GMT -5 felipe said:

Sept 10, 2016 23:15:26 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Justin Timberlake debuted at number one and his peak was arguably ten years ago. It wasn't unreasonable to think Gaga could.

But wasn't Justin's last album the year's best seller or something? Gaga has been flopping for a while now and that makes quite a difference. We can see from first day sales that Gaga still has a loyal fanbase anticipating her releases, but most people have moved already and it's hard to get a #1 without the larger crowd aboard.

Gaga's last album was among the year's best sellers when it came out too. Yet it's widely called a flop. Apparently sales mean nothing when they don't match expectations - which I can understand. In any case, JT's sudden number one was a surprise and unexpected so it's not beyond belief that Gaga could have - before the song came out of course.

[felipe]

Sept 11, 2016 7:41:46 GMT -5 Dylan :) said:

Sept 11, 2016 7:37:50 GMT -5 felipe said:

But wasn't Justin's last album the year's best seller or something? Gaga has been flopping for a while now and that makes quite a difference. We can see from first day sales that Gaga still has a loyal fanbase anticipating her releases, but most people have moved already and it's hard to get a #1 without the larger crowd aboard.

I don't think most people have moved on, people just don't like the song. If Gaga releases a song that the public likes, they'll buy it and it'll become a hit. PI just doesn't seem to be a song that a casual listener/non fan will enjoy.

I agree that Gaga could have benefited from a stronger single, but when casual listeners don't like a song (from a big act) it usually does really well out of the gate and then free falls by the second or third week. We've seen that with Rise and several others. PI was no longer #1 on iTunes by the second day of release, so there were not many people giving it a try to begin with.