Billboard Hot 100: 3/24/2018

[WILL]

Mar 14, 2018 14:06:44 GMT -5 rainie said:

Wow a song that has been #1 on iTunes for multiple days and is getting decent streaming and YouTube is only looking to debut at 67?

I used his formula and have it at ~97 points which would be more around 50-45. I don't have super accurate streaming data for the song though so I feel like it could debut anywhere from 65-40, give or take a few spots.

In case you're wondering, it's Streaming / 165,000 (I used the numbers from @emporertigerstar and added some streams to take into account for Apple Music/Pandora and some more for what I think it'll be by the end of the tracking week, 5.8M streams, ~35 points) + Sales / 750 (45K sales, 60 points) + Radio / 900,000 (I used 2M audience to account for what I think it'll be by the end of the tracking week, ~2 points)

EDIT: Just tweeted at him, he didn't know there was a video and only did the lyric videos streams (+Spotify and other streaming services) so the points for Zombie are off and it will debut higher!!

[fhas]

Mar 14, 2018 14:18:01 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Go "Finesse"!

Lol he's predicted "Finesse" at #2 a handful of times already though.

Perfect had 25.1M streams last week. He told me that he was using 23M, so Perfect should be #2 after he adjusts the predictions.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8247025/xxxtentacion-marshmello-artist-100-ed-sheeran

[jenglisbe]

Mar 14, 2018 14:06:44 GMT -5 rainie said:

Wow a song that has been #1 on iTunes for multiple days and is getting decent streaming and YouTube is only looking to debut at 67?

People really shouldn't use iTunes as a predictor of Hot 100 success unless sales are through the roof. "Zombie" may have been #1 for multiple days, but it's only going to sell about 45k.

Additionally, the difference in making the top 10 in downloads and being out of the top 40 is less than 20k. In other words, there just aren't enough legal downloads happening to help anything make huge moves on the charts.

[renfield75]

This will be Zombie's first Hot 100 appearance ever. Too bad it wasn't able to chart following Dolores O'Riordan's passing.

[Sherane Lamar]

Mar 14, 2018 12:48:01 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Interesting how the Top 3 songs on the Hot 100 right now are from arguably the 3 biggest male acts of the 2010's (Drake, Ed and Bruno).

Damn. didn't notice just how far Ed Sheeran has came in the last few years. 

He's just a bit behind Bieber and Chris Brown on my list. Probably will surpass them in a few months, if none of them release anything else. 

And Maroon 5 of course, but that's a group. 

[Sherane Lamar]

Mar 14, 2018 13:56:20 GMT -5 Golden Bluebird said:

Wow. That's a really low debut for Logic. 

If he doesn't have 11 songs on the charts, I think this will be the first time that songs have been in the Top 20 daily Spotify chart and then didn't make it onto the Hot 100. 

[Sherane Lamar]

Top artists of 2018 (inv points)

1 ) Post Malone 2672

2 ) Migos 2657

3 ) G-Eazy 2053

4 ) Ed Sheeran 1987

5 ) Imagine Dragons 1838

6 ) Camila Cabello 1822

7 ) Cardi B 1763

8 ) Kendrick Lamar 1719

9 ) 6ix9ine 1541

10 ) Charlie Puth 1269

SPOILER: Click to show

{Show 11-100}
11 ) Bruno Mars 1193
12 ) Dua Lipa 1188
13 ) Demi Lovato 1117
14 ) Halsey 1072
15 ) NF 1059
16 ) Khalid 1056
17 ) Bebe Rexha 1040
18 ) Portugal. The Man 912
19 ) Selena Gomez 897
20 ) Justin Timberlake 877
21 ) Drake 858
22 ) Sam Smith 825
23 ) Taylor Swift 818
24 ) A$AP Ferg 816
25 ) Lil Pump 800
26 ) Maroon 5 796
27 ) Miguel 788
28 ) Eminem 782
29 ) YoungBoy Never Broke Again 782
30 ) Kodak Black 781
31 ) MAX 763
32 ) Thomas Rhett 735
33 ) Logic 728
34 ) Offset 713
35 ) Gucci Mane 699
36 ) N*E*R*D 647
37 ) Luis Fonsi 631
38 ) Macklemore 559
39 ) Ozuna 551
40 ) Hailee Steinfeld 542
41 ) Zedd 512
42 ) Lil Skies 508
43 ) Bazzi 503
44 ) Russell Dickerson 463
45 ) The Weeknd 460
46 ) Rich The Kid 456
47 ) Marshmello 451
48 ) Lil Uzi Vert 448
49 ) Old Dominion 429
50 ) Famous Dex 420
51 ) Scotty McCreery 413
52 ) J Balvin 401
53 ) 21 Savage 392
54 ) Kane Brown 390
55 ) BlocBoy JB 380
56 ) Jason Aldean 361
57 ) Lil Xan 358
58 ) Jay Rock 354
59 ) Brett Young 348
60 ) Walker Hayes 341
61 ) French Montana 323
62 ) SZA 319
63 ) Chris Stapleton 316
64 ) Chris Brown 293
65 ) Keala Settle 290
66 ) YBN Nahmir 283
67 ) P!nk 275
68 ) Chris Young 274
69 ) Luke Bryan 258
70 ) LANCO 250
71 ) Devin Dawson 246
72 ) Eric Church 226
73 ) Daddy Yankee 202
74 ) Mariah Carey 180
75 ) Blake Shelton 178
76 ) WALK THE MOON 168
77 ) Kelsea Ballerini 165
78 ) XXXTentacion 156
79 ) Huncho Jack 151
80 ) ScHoolboy Q 147
81 ) BTS 145
82 ) Brenda Lee 136
83 ) Andy Williams 132
84 ) Zac Efron 131
85 ) Carrie Underwood 130
86 ) Maren Morris 124
87 ) Nat King Cole 123
88 ) Derez De'Shon 119
89 ) Burl Ives 118
90 ) Jordan Davis 115
91 ) Quavo 115
92 ) SOB X RBE 104
93 ) Lil Baby 93
94 ) Becky G 88
95 ) Brett Eldredge 86
96 ) DJ Khaled 79
97 ) Tay-K 70
98 ) Tank 69
99 ) Maluma 67
100 ) Jacquees 63

Genre share of 2018 (based on iTunes genres)

Hip-Hop/Rap: 44.2% (26,791)
Pop: 24.9% (15,076)
Country: 10.0% (6,087)
Alternative: 6.6% (3,990)
R&B/Soul: 5.1% (3,074)
Singer/Songwriter: 3.3% (1,987)
Latino: 3.2% (1,939)
Dance: 1.8% (1,075)
Soundtrack: 0.8% (458)
Jazz: 0.2% (123)

[kindofbiased]

Mar 14, 2018 7:54:57 GMT -5 scrohr424 said:

Oops. I meant that they didn't debut on the current chart that we have now, the 3/17 chart, it was in response to the "it never debuted" comment, yeah it didn't debut this week so I wasn't sure what that there was about.

Oh I get what you mean now

Yeah it would've been really weird if it debuted on the 3/17 chart.

[annoymous1]

I Hope this week is finally the week Finesse goes to Number 2 .

[Choco]

Yeah, he has predicted Finesse at #2 so many times, I'm not even going to get my hopes up for it.

[renaboss]

Mar 14, 2018 15:39:25 GMT -5 fhas said:

Mar 14, 2018 14:18:01 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Go "Finesse"!

Lol he's predicted "Finesse" at #2 a handful of times already though.

Perfect had 25.1M streams last week. He told me that he was using 23M, so Perfect should be #2 after he adjusts the predictions.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8247025/xxxtentacion-marshmello-artist-100-ed-sheeran

Siiiiiiiiiigh. 

[chartslovergermany]

Mar 14, 2018 14:19:05 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Wow, disappointing debut for "Delicate".

it‘s only out for like some days now

[tanooki]

lol @ Mine going 18-20-18 and predicted to go 20 again

[renaboss]

I hope "Mine" goes top 10, I like that song.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Mar 14, 2018 15:50:32 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Mar 14, 2018 14:06:44 GMT -5 rainie said:

Wow a song that has been #1 on iTunes for multiple days and is getting decent streaming and YouTube is only looking to debut at 67?

People really shouldn't use iTunes as a predictor of Hot 100 success unless sales are through the roof. "Zombie" may have been #1 for multiple days, but it's only going to sell about 45k.

Additionally, the difference in making the top 10 in downloads and being out of the top 40 is less than 20k. In other words, there just aren't enough legal downloads happening to help anything make huge moves on the charts.

You're right. Even songs on discount are not the thing anymore. In the top 100 of iTunes chart, there are 7 songs on discount unlike last years list with 17 songs.  

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Mar 14, 2018 17:38:15 GMT -5 renaboss said:

I hope "Mine" goes top 10, I like that song.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Mar 14, 2018 14:01:30 GMT -5 Harx said:

YES at Ric Flair Drip staying in the top 20
YES at Say Something still not collapsing
YES at Whatever It Takes entering Top 25

[Gary]

50K will get you #1 in digital now, by coincidence the top digital song has had other things going for it so it still #1 on the Hot 100 or close to it.

Eventually as is the case with physical singles now, #1 won't even Bubble Under

The last #1 song on Digital that had no other support(98K sold that week) (Say Something) - charted at #9

[Gary]

Zombie #22 - Hot 100 Airplay - 1995


One of those infamous 90's era radio singles that was never released physically

[jenglisbe]

Mar 14, 2018 18:56:18 GMT -5 Gary said:

Zombie #22 - Hot 100 Airplay - 1995


One of those infamous 90's era radio singles that was never released physically

So #22 was its Hot 100 Airplay peak? It likely wouldn't have even made the top 40 of the Hot 100 had it been allowed to chart, then.

[forg]

What was the last song that topped Spotify that didn't hit #1 on the Hot 100? Aside from Psycho though since it's still new and still has a shot on getting to #1 eventually

[Gary]

Cold Water -2016 #2

[Deleted]

Mar 14, 2018 20:13:39 GMT -5 Gary said:

Cold Water -2016 #2

I keep on forgetting Cold Water was huge since its release. I kept on (and probably still do) underestimating Justin Bieber like h*cc.

[Gary]

So I am not sure about Spotify in particular but it did spend 3 weeks at #1 on streaming

[stetz]

Mar 14, 2018 16:02:45 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

This will be Zombie's first Hot 100 appearance ever. Too bad it wasn't able to chart following Dolores O'Riordan's passing.

Bad Wolves only has 3 songs on Spotify & from a little internet parousing it looks like they really haven't been around that long to have been able to hope for a hit prior to their "Zombie" cover.

[fhas]

Mar 14, 2018 20:05:10 GMT -5 forg said:

What was the last song that topped Spotify that didn't hit #1 on the Hot 100? Aside from Psycho though since it's still new and still has a shot on getting to #1 eventually

All I Want For Christmas Is You, but if you don't count Christmas songs, it was 1-800-273-8255 (10 days at #1 - Sep. 6-15).

Bank Account was #1 on Spotify during 19 days in August and only peaked at #12 on the Hot 100.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Mar 14, 2018 18:47:23 GMT -5 Gary said:

50K will get you #1 in digital now, by coincidence the top digital song has had other things going for it so it still #1 on the Hot 100 or close to it.

Eventually as is the case with physical singles now, #1 won't even Bubble Under

The last #1 song on Digital that had no other support(98K sold that week) (Say Something) - charted at #9

I guess you're referring to kworb's prediction of 51k for God's Plan for next week. That would set a new recent low for #1 in Digital Sales beating Thunder.

[Gary]

Mar 14, 2018 21:23:05 GMT -5 Baby Yoda Hot100Fan said:

Mar 14, 2018 18:47:23 GMT -5 Gary said:

50K will get you #1 in digital now, by coincidence the top digital song has had other things going for it so it still #1 on the Hot 100 or close to it.

Eventually as is the case with physical singles now, #1 won't even Bubble Under

The last #1 song on Digital that had no other support(98K sold that week) (Say Something) - charted at #9

I guess you're referring to kworb's prediction of 51k for God's Plan for next week. That would set a new recent low for #1 in Digital Sales beating Thunder.

No I am referring to numbers from weeks that have already happened

57K got you #1 last week

3 of the last 5 weeks have been below 60K

The 50K in my post was rounding

[renfield75]

Mar 14, 2018 20:46:02 GMT -5 stetz said:

Mar 14, 2018 16:02:45 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

This will be Zombie's first Hot 100 appearance ever. Too bad it wasn't able to chart following Dolores O'Riordan's passing.

Bad Wolves only has 3 songs on Spotify & from a little internet parousing it looks like they really haven't been around that long to have been able to hope for a hit prior to their "Zombie" cover.

I was talking about the song "Zombie", not the artist Bad Wolves. It's a cover of the old Cranberries hit from the 90s, which wasn't allowed to chart on the Hot 100 at the time because of the rules in place back then.

[85la]

Last week, discussion came up about covers/sampling and the possibility of copyright infringement. Miley Cyrus was just hit with a $300 million copyright lawsuit, and I thought I'd post it here because it is a perfect example of such a claim that is 100% based on complete bullsh*t.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/pop/8246989/miley-cyrus-sued-300-million-we-cant-stop-copyright-lawsuit