dynamac
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Post by dynamac on Jun 22, 2018 1:07:28 GMT -5
The rules at the time are the same as now. There was a viral video with the track used in the background and the views of the video were tracked as part of the song's streaming. The same thing could still happen today, we just haven't had a viral video in a while that wasn't just a plain music video already. I do think YouTube had more power in 2013 and 2014. There were a ton of songs like that in those two years. Although none as extreme as SoKo's. These days, viral hits behave very differently. Levitate by Hadouken! comes to mind |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Jun 22, 2018 1:13:36 GMT -5
I think this would be realistic for Drake:
450-550K sales (Views sold 852K in a better climate, sales for Rap albums near extinct. Doing half of Views sales would be a miracle)
750-900K SPS (would indicate 300-450K in streams, which equates to 450-675m streams, which is logical since More Life did 385m)
With streaming era, colossal first weeks do not matter/happen much anymore. Consuming an album is something you do over weeks/months, it's not frontloaded like everyone rushing to buy an album during week 1.
What matters more is how it does after the first week -- and seeing streaming's growth, Scorpion could very well outdo Views 2nd/3rd/4th/etc weeks. That matters more.
The race will be on if he tops Views overall SPS.
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on Jun 22, 2018 2:09:53 GMT -5
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Jun 22, 2018 3:38:23 GMT -5
That nonsense doesnt really affect anything at all. Same as with every controversy the internet generates against him, the people that weren't listening to him before this wont listen and those who do will continue to do so Probably 750 - 950k sps And how much pure sales? 200K? His last two releases averaged 500k fw so im hoping for something close to that. And then even if he demolishes the streaming record and pulls something like 600m, that still wont be enough for the 1m+ SPS people keep throwing around |
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Jun 22, 2018 4:33:33 GMT -5
Cardi B discounted I like it. Number 1 next week if not this week :)
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Jun 22, 2018 4:45:05 GMT -5
Also: XXX did 4,953,801 views on YouTube on Tuesday... 800,000 more than Monday...ya the number 1 race is over .. :/
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Sherane Lamar
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Post by Sherane Lamar on Jun 22, 2018 5:02:07 GMT -5
I think this would be realistic for Drake: 450-550K sales (Views sold 852K in a better climate, sales for Rap albums near extinct. Doing half of Views sales would be a miracle) 750-900K SPS (would indicate 300-450K in streams, which equates to 450-675m streams, which is logical since More Life did 385m) With streaming era, colossal first weeks do not matter/happen much anymore. Consuming an album is something you do over weeks/months, it's not frontloaded like everyone rushing to buy an album during week 1. What matters more is how it does after the first week -- and seeing streaming's growth, Scorpion could very well outdo Views 2nd/3rd/4th/etc weeks. That matters more. The race will be on if he tops Views overall SPS.
Uh... wut? It's like the exact opposite though. Have you seen some of these album takeovers? They're usually gone in two weeks. |
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shayonce
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Post by shayonce on Jun 22, 2018 5:21:05 GMT -5
I think this would be realistic for Drake: 450-550K sales (Views sold 852K in a better climate, sales for Rap albums near extinct. Doing half of Views sales would be a miracle) 750-900K SPS (would indicate 300-450K in streams, which equates to 450-675m streams, which is logical since More Life did 385m) With streaming era, colossal first weeks do not matter/happen much anymore. Consuming an album is something you do over weeks/months, it's not frontloaded like everyone rushing to buy an album during week 1. What matters more is how it does after the first week -- and seeing streaming's growth, Scorpion could very well outdo Views 2nd/3rd/4th/etc weeks. That matters more. The race will be on if he tops Views overall SPS.
Uh... wut? It's like the exact opposite though. Have you seen some of these album takeovers? They're usually gone in two weeks. because they're flop..? in sales days, 1 sales added in one week, done. now, people don't buy it but streaming probably like 150 times for 1 week, that's 0.1 album sales. and they will keep listening the album through wks to even years, less and less each week and it takes long time to reach 1 SEA from 1 person. so first weeks sales are smaller than before but will have long leg in general. |
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Jun 22, 2018 6:18:42 GMT -5
A singer who benefitted from weird Billboard rules at the time. The rules at the time are the same as now. There was a viral video with the track used in the background and the views of the video were tracked as part of the song's streaming. The same thing could still happen today, we just haven't had a viral video in a while that wasn't just a plain music video already. It’s a terrible rule. It wasn’t even a music video. It was a tv ad with music in the background. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 22, 2018 7:52:37 GMT -5
consuming an album is something you do over weeks/months, it's not frontloaded
Uh... wut? It's like the exact opposite though. Have you seen some of these album takeovers? They're usually gone in two weeks. because they're flop..? in sales days, 1 sales added in one week, done. now, people don't buy it but streaming probably like 150 times for 1 week, that's 0.1 album sales. and they will keep listening the album through wks to even years, less and less each week and it takes long time to reach 1 SEA from 1 person. so first weeks sales are smaller than before but will have long leg in general. Which brings out the argument of whether one song is equal to one album. You can probably guess on which side I'm on. |
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 22, 2018 7:55:57 GMT -5
Also: XXX did 4,953,801 views on YouTube on Tuesday... 800,000 more than Monday...ya the number 1 race is over .. :/ Based on those numbers, it looks like slightly under half of the number of WW views over the last 24 hours had been US views since his death. |
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Jun 22, 2018 8:14:12 GMT -5
kworb.net/airadio/*** = Dropped or added a format Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/06/221. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (152.365) (-0.654) 2. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (137.155) (-0.248) 3. (+1) DRAKE - Nice For What (123.763) (+0.956) 4. (-1) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (122.847) (-0.395) 5. (+1) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (112.147) (+0.200) 6. (+1) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (111.002) (+1.670) 7. (-2) DRAKE - God's Plan (110.679) (-2.602) 8. (=) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (107.186) (+0.958) 9. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (102.275) (-1.225) 10. (=) BAZZI - Mine (100.657) (+0.114) 11. (=) MARSHMELLO & ANNE-MARIE - Friends (88.051) (+0.999) 12. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (84.332) (-1.113) 13. (+1) CARDI B - I Like It (82.759) (+2.730) 14. (-1) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (82.171) (+0.398) 15. (=) MAROON 5 - Wait (74.613) (-2.645) 16. (=) ELLA MAI - Boo'd Up (73.049) (+0.802) 17. (=) MAX - Lights Down Low (70.418) (-0.550) 18. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (68.929) (+0.022) 19. (+1) CARDI B - Be Careful (64.733) (+0.522) 20. (+1) LAUV - I Like Me Better (62.967) (+1.001) Outside the Top 20: 21. (+2) MORGAN WALLEN - Up Down f/Florida Georgia Line (62.779) (+1.502) 22. (+2) DAN + SHAY - Tequila (62.308) (+1.103) 23. (+2) BLAKE SHELTON - I Lived It (62.284) (+1.131) 31. (+4) MAROON 5 - Girls Like You (55.209) (+2.618) 43. (+1) KHALID X NORMANI - Love Lies (43.347) (+1.174) 68. (+4) POST MALONE - Better Now (30.188) (+1.520) 69. (-7) NICKI MINAJ - Chun-Li (29.887) (-1.498)
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Jun 22, 2018 8:22:36 GMT -5
I think this would be realistic for Drake: 450-550K sales (Views sold 852K in a better climate, sales for Rap albums near extinct. Doing half of Views sales would be a miracle) 750-900K SPS (would indicate 300-450K in streams, which equates to 450-675m streams, which is logical since More Life did 385m) With streaming era, colossal first weeks do not matter/happen much anymore. Consuming an album is something you do over weeks/months, it's not frontloaded like everyone rushing to buy an album during week 1. What matters more is how it does after the first week -- and seeing streaming's growth, Scorpion could very well outdo Views 2nd/3rd/4th/etc weeks. That matters more. The race will be on if he tops Views overall SPS.
Uh... wut? It's like the exact opposite though. Have you seen some of these album takeovers? They're usually gone in two weeks. Nope. The albums charting on the Hot 100 lasts for a few weeks, but the consumption builds over months. Views did 245 million streams first week, and now has the 4.5 billion streams total. In comparison it sold 850K first week, and 1.7 million total. 5.4% of its total streams were first week, while 50% of its total sales were first week. An artist that does 500K in Streams first week would have more longevity and total units than an artist that does 1 million in Sales first week with bad streaming. Hence that exact case playing out with Post Malone & Taylor Swift’s Albums. First weeks mean much less with streaming. |
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Post by Mayman on Jun 22, 2018 8:24:02 GMT -5
If NTLTC doesn't improve its AI, Delicate will jump it.
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Post by Mayman on Jun 22, 2018 8:24:41 GMT -5
Scorpion will be a two side album (A + B). Something coming June 28th before the album release on June 29th. Did Drake say this himself? I can't find it anywhere. |
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Choco
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Post by Choco on Jun 22, 2018 8:45:26 GMT -5
Two airplay top 20 hits for Cardi!
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Post by hot100predictions on Jun 22, 2018 8:56:21 GMT -5
Scorpion will be a two side album (A + B). Something coming June 28th before the album release on June 29th. Did Drake say this himself? I can't find it anywhere. It’s been posted on billboards in Toronto. |
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Post by Mayman on Jun 22, 2018 8:58:19 GMT -5
Did Drake say this himself? I can't find it anywhere. It’s been posted on billboards in Toronto. Oh okay, thanks. |
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Post by chartslovergermany on Jun 22, 2018 9:41:45 GMT -5
omfg delicate at#6,go on :)
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Jun 22, 2018 9:47:43 GMT -5
I do think YouTube had more power in 2013 and 2014. There were a ton of songs like that in those two years. Although none as extreme as SoKo's. These days, viral hits behave very differently. Levitate by Hadouken! comes to mind I remember that song! I hope when dance music makes a comeback in 2022 it's more like Levitate and less like Poker Face. |
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Post by hot100predictions on Jun 22, 2018 12:29:02 GMT -5
Drake will have 24 songs on his album, Scorpion. Side A will feature rap songs as Side B will feature R&B songs. This will be a powerhouse of an album, and will obviously be bigger than B&B. I see 130-145 million streams first day on Spotify. All his songs should be top 20, I’m figuring that the Target album will feature two bonus tracks that may be “God’s Plan” and “Diplomatic Immunity”. Pure sales will probs be 250k. SPS will be 800k-1M for sure combining for 1.2 million copies in the first week. Biggest opening since ‘reputation’ coming.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 22, 2018 12:31:02 GMT -5
Only needs one more album after this one to catch Glee Cast for most entries
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 22, 2018 12:39:48 GMT -5
Probably not
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kanfad
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Post by kanfad on Jun 22, 2018 12:46:42 GMT -5
Drake will have 24 songs on his album, Scorpion. Side A will feature rap songs as Side B will feature R&B songs. This will be a powerhouse of an album, and will obviously be bigger than B&B. I see 130-145 million streams first day on Spotify. All his songs should be top 20, I’m figuring that the Target album will feature two bonus tracks that may be “God’s Plan” and “Diplomatic Immunity”. Pure sales will probs be 250k. SPS will be 800k-1M for sure combining for 1.2 million copies in the first week. Biggest opening since ‘reputation’ coming. Where are you getting all this info from? KanyeToThe ? Because nothings been confirmed by ovo/republic/ drake himself. And since when has Drake ever done a Target exclusive. Do those even still happen. Not even Taylor Swift still does that. Plus if its going to be 20+ tracks again, the streams will be distributed through too many songs for aĺl/most of them to debut in the top 20 |
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fearlessarrow
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Post by fearlessarrow on Jun 22, 2018 13:02:35 GMT -5
Drake will have 24 songs on his album, Scorpion. Side A will feature rap songs as Side B will feature R&B songs. This will be a powerhouse of an album, and will obviously be bigger than B&B. I see 130-145 million streams first day on Spotify. All his songs should be top 20, I’m figuring that the Target album will feature two bonus tracks that may be “God’s Plan” and “Diplomatic Immunity”. Pure sales will probs be 250k. SPS will be 800k-1M for sure combining for 1.2 million copies in the first week. Biggest opening since ‘reputation’ coming. Where are you getting all this info from? KanyeToThe ? Because nothings been confirmed by ovo/republic/ drake himself. And since when has Drake ever done a Target exclusive. Do those even still happen. Not even Taylor Swift still does that. Plus if its going to be 20+ tracks again, the streams will be distributed through too many songs for aĺl/most of them to debut in the top 20 Idk about the Drake confirmation part, but people still do Target exclusive. Demi Lovato and Niall Horan, for example, had Target exclusive versions of their CDs with bonus tracks with Tell Me You Love Me and Flicker respectively, which both were released within the past year. Now Taylor didn't have exclusive tracks, but she had two Target exclusive versions of her album which included exclusive content (two versions of magazines) for reputation. Justin Timberlake had a Target exclusive version of Man of the Woods similar to that with bonus content (that are not songs). |
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thabb
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Post by thabb on Jun 22, 2018 13:17:07 GMT -5
do you guys think that, should Scorpion take up a huge amount of the top 10, billboard might enact a new rule about album cuts charting?
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Jun 22, 2018 13:23:43 GMT -5
do you guys think that, should Scorpion take up a huge amount of the top 10, billboard might enact a new rule about album cuts charting? Possibly as the UK did for Divide. |
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rimetm
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Post by rimetm on Jun 22, 2018 13:26:51 GMT -5
Unlike the UK, the US learned their mistake in considering the chart a “singles” chart as opposed to one for “songs”. One need only look at all the false number one and top ten debuts of the 1990s to see why a rule to quell “album cuts” is bad and wrong.
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Jun 22, 2018 13:30:33 GMT -5
do you guys think that, should Scorpion take up a huge amount of the top 10, billboard might enact a new rule about album cuts charting? good question. He really will break records next week, but billboard should embrace it rather than make new rules to limit new achievement. I like the US rules for album bombs tbh |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 22, 2018 13:33:09 GMT -5
Right they would need to redefine their entire chart to be a "singles" chart rather than a songs chart.
With the definition of "single" being so open to interpretation these days, that would be difficult to do
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