Billboard Hot 100: 10/13/18

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 12:12:20 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Oct 7, 2018 8:36:33 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

iHype. obviously Nonstop is the next #1 on Urban radio, but I hope it can hold on long enough to also reach #1 on Rhythmic radio. Do you know how many #1's that'd give Drake on each format this year?

Rhythmic:
God's Plan - 6 weeks #1
Nice for What - 6 weeks #1
In My Feelings - 4 weeks #1

Urban:
God's Plan - 9 weeks #1
Look Alive - 3 weeks #1
Nice for What - 9 weeks #1
In My Feelings - 2 weeks #1
Yes Indeed - 3 weeks #1

This is amazing, thanks.

[kcdawg13]

Perfect still has 52k audience on radio and it gained today, who tf is still listening to that song? Perfect is ancient, the egyptians were listening to that song while they were building the pyramids, that's how old it is.

[amore]

Oct 7, 2018 12:43:06 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Perfect still has 52k audience on radio and it gained today, who tf is still listening to that song? Perfect is ancient, the egyptians were listening to that song while they were building the pyramids, that's how old it is.

I mean it has 1.4 billion views on youtube. Lol people tend to listen to high viewed videos a lot. I actually am happy that Perfect is still in the top 25. Perfect has survived EVERY album bomb this year. It deserves #1 on the year end charts. :):):):):).

[kcdawg13]

Oct 7, 2018 12:48:42 GMT -5 amore said:

Oct 7, 2018 12:43:06 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Perfect still has 52k audience on radio and it gained today, who tf is still listening to that song? Perfect is ancient, the egyptians were listening to that song while they were building the pyramids, that's how old it is.

I mean it has 1.4 billion views on youtube. Lol people tend to listen to high viewed videos a lot. I actually am happy that Perfect is still in the top 25. Perfect has survived EVERY album bomb this year. It deserves #1 on the year end charts. .

Yeah but God's Plan is actually a GOOD song, so it deserves the spot way more. Plus it's success was based around people streaming the song and listening to it by their own choice, not radio spinning it constantly for 9 months straight.

[Deleted]

Oct 7, 2018 12:43:06 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Perfect still has 52k audience on radio and it gained today, who tf is still listening to that song? Perfect is ancient, the egyptians were listening to that song while they were building the pyramids, that's how old it is.

Keep in mind that most "older" folks don't listen to music as frequently as today's youth, let alone buy or stream it.  So songs don't get old nearly as fast, which is why they linger on the radio.  Some songs warrant high levels of audience for prolonged periods of time, some don't.  Clearly Perfect is one of the former.  Ed has a knack for enduring love songs, and this isn't his first song to have incredible radio longevity, so I'm not sure why it's so noteworthy or surprising.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 7, 2018 9:23:21 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 7, 2018 9:17:19 GMT -5 weaver said:

I don't understand why so many people are so pressed about Perfect staying on the charts. Obvi people like it, so it hangs on. I guess we are concerned about year end charts? I never have been overly worried about those lol...I feel they are skewed in a sense that if anything is #1 when the chart year ends/begins, its points are divided. Lots of big fall hits end up being on the year end charts of both years and don't look nearly as big as they actually were. But anyway, yeah Perfect is a good song so...who cares?

Anyone who is really mad should redirect that anger into VOTING in the midterms. LOL but not really funny.

I don't know about other people, but I have issues with Billboard's year-end charts only because they're what we'll use to reflect back on songs/albums that supposedly dominated a year. For this year, Taylor Swift's reputation might very well end the year as the #1 album on the year-end chart and if Perfect hangs on, it'll end the year as the #1 song on the year-end chart, both statements that wouldn't hold true seeing as Drake has the biggest song and album of the year with God's Plan and Scorpion, but if Taylor and Ed and up taking the #1 spot in the album and song year-end charts, that's how future generations will view 2018 in a nutshell. That's ridiculous to me considering the HISTORIC year Drake has had on the charts. That's the source of my anger.

That's why it's up to you whether you think Billboard's methodology is an accurate representation of what's popular.

And I'd say Perfect, as annoying as it is, is quite possibly bigger than any of Drake's hits this year.

Reputation, not so much.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

But can we also stop ignoring the fact that the only reason why Drake is as big a "force" as he is right now is because, at his peak as a streaming act, he released a 25 track album? If Billboard incorporated album sales into the Hot 100 the way they do with streaming points, and Adele released a 25-track album for 25, she would have made Drake numbers look tiny. No shade to Drake or other acts performing well on Billboard now but their numbers are huge because they're using Billboard's methodology to their advantage. Of course they still need interest from music fans to do it but there's clearly a disadvantage for acts who benefit more from physical and digital sales compared to streaming. It's not so much that he's not as successful as his numbers suggest. It's that other acts don't benefit from Billboard's own methodology the way he has been.

[renaboss]

Oct 7, 2018 12:51:29 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Oct 7, 2018 12:48:42 GMT -5 amore said:

I mean it has 1.4 billion views on youtube. Lol people tend to listen to high viewed videos a lot. I actually am happy that Perfect is still in the top 25. Perfect has survived EVERY album bomb this year. It deserves #1 on the year end charts. .

Yeah but God's Plan is actually a GOOD song, so it deserves the spot way more. Plus it's success was based around people streaming the song and listening to it by their own choice, not radio spinning it constantly for 9 months straight.

Taste is subjective, we all know that, but how can you say "God's Plan" is a GOOD song whilst implying "Perfect" isn't? Both of them could be perceived as boring songs, since they're pretty slow, but one of them is pretty and the other isn't. Hint: "Perfect" is the pretty one. "God's Plan" is just boring and nothing else. 

[Gary]

The year-end charts, which we obsess here about all year long is nothing more than a snapshot in time of what is popular. Nothing more than the weekly charts, just a bigger snapshot

And on Drake, Drake can be the artist of the year, without having the #1 album or song of the year.

They do not have to be the same - happened many times before.

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 13:06:34 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

But can we also stop ignoring the fact that the only reason why Drake is as big a "force" as he is right now is because, at his peak as a streaming act, he released a 25 track album? If Billboard incorporated album sales into the Hot 100 the way they do with streaming points, and Adele released a 25-track album for 25, she would have made Drake numbers look tiny. No shade to Drake or other acts performing well on Billboard now but their numbers are huge because they're using Billboard's methodology to their advantage. Of course they still need interest from music fans to do it but there's clearly a disadvantage for acts who benefit more from physical and digital sales compared to streaming. It's not so much that he's not as successful as his numbers suggest. It's that other acts don't benefit from Billboard's own methodology the way he has been.

Different artists have exploited different methodologies that Billboard has employed over the past several decades. Drake, along with other rappers who are releasing music as frequently and as voluminously as he's doing, aren't doing anything that hasn't been done before. The Beatles exploited the methodology during their time. They released way more music during their peak than Drake is doing now and it's not even close. They took full advantage of the way singles were weighed on the charts back then. Rihanna released an album every year from 2008-2012 during her peak in the digital era where she flourished as a pop star.

Also, there is no indication that Drake has peaked as a streaming act, seeing as streaming is still growing every year. Also, releasing music frequently and releasing long projects has always been a habit of rappers and specifically, one like Drake. Streaming just happened to come at the right time to highlight the real numbers rappers like him were pulling under the grip of illegal downloads. Fun fact: Drake's mixtape released in 2015, If You're Reading This It's Too Late, was the most illegally downloaded music project, across all genres that year. All that consumption in 2018 actually goes somewhere now. It actually counts. And that's why he's such a huge figure under the new streaming rules (as he's always been).

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 13:15:23 GMT -5 Gary said:

The year-end charts, which we obsess here about all year long is nothing more than a snapshot in time of what is popular. Nothing more than the weekly charts, just a bigger snapshot

And on Drake, Drake can be the artist of the year, without having the #1 album or song of the year.

They do not have to be the same - happened many times before.

Except in this case, it wouldn't be the right "snapshot." He does have the song of the year and the album of the year the same way Adele had the album of the year in 2015, Drake had the album of the year in 2016 and Ed Sheeran had the album of the year in 2017 but none of them ended up with the #1 albums in the year-end chart. Billboard's methodology of their year-end charts is deeply flawed and dated.

[imbondz]

Is there any chance that GLY holds on for one more week?

[Gary]

Oct 7, 2018 13:18:17 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:15:23 GMT -5 Gary said:

The year-end charts, which we obsess here about all year long is nothing more than a snapshot in time of what is popular. Nothing more than the weekly charts, just a bigger snapshot

And on Drake, Drake can be the artist of the year, without having the #1 album or song of the year.

They do not have to be the same - happened many times before.

Except in this case, it wouldn't be the right "snapshot." He does have the song of the year and the album of the year.

And I don't know if he does or doesn't - I don't read the prediction threads - (I am kind of an oddball here in that I only study the year end chart at year end )

If it turns out that way then it is statistically accurate based on the methodology in place

Feelings and opinions are left to the readers and fans of the chart

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 13:25:09 GMT -5 Gary said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:18:17 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Except in this case, it wouldn't be the right "snapshot." He does have the song of the year and the album of the year.

And I don't know if he does or doesn't - I don't read the prediction threads - (I am kind of an oddball here in that I only study the year end chart at year end )

If it turns out that way then it is statistically accurate based on the methodology in place

Feelings and opinions are left to the readers and fans of the chart

That's exactly what I'm saying. The song/album/artist that has the best performance commercially during the course of a year deserves to be #1 at year's end. That's why the chart is deeply flawed. Adele moved more album units in 2015 than any other artist but 25 didn't end up as the #1 album that year. Drake moved more units than any other artist in 2016, but VIEWS didn't end up as the #1 album that year. Same thing happened with Ed Sheeran in 2017 with Divide. It has nothing to do with feelings or emotions. Billboard deals in numbers and their methodology in calculating and compiling said numbers for their year-end lists is deeply flawed. That's all I'm saying.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 7, 2018 13:17:08 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:06:34 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

But can we also stop ignoring the fact that the only reason why Drake is as big a "force" as he is right now is because, at his peak as a streaming act, he released a 25 track album? If Billboard incorporated album sales into the Hot 100 the way they do with streaming points, and Adele released a 25-track album for 25, she would have made Drake numbers look tiny. No shade to Drake or other acts performing well on Billboard now but their numbers are huge because they're using Billboard's methodology to their advantage. Of course they still need interest from music fans to do it but there's clearly a disadvantage for acts who benefit more from physical and digital sales compared to streaming. It's not so much that he's not as successful as his numbers suggest. It's that other acts don't benefit from Billboard's own methodology the way he has been.

Different artists have exploited different methodologies that Billboard has employed over the past several decades. Drake, along with other rappers who are releasing music as frequently and as voluminously as he's doing, aren't doing anything that hasn't been done before. The Beatles exploited the methodology during their time. They released way more music during their peak than Drake is doing now and it's not even close. They took full advantage of the way singles were weighed on the charts back then. Rihanna released an album every year from 2008-2012 during her peak in the digital era where she flourished as a pop star.

Also, there is no indication that Drake has peaked as a streaming act, seeing as streaming is still growing every year. Also, releasing music frequently and releasing long projects has always been a habit of rappers and specifically, one like Drake. Streaming just happened to come at the right time to highlight the real numbers rappers like him were pulling under the grip of illegal downloads. Fun fact: Drake's mixtape released in 2015, If You're Reading This It's Too Late, was the most illegally downloaded music project, across all genres that year. All that consumption in 2018 actually goes somewhere now. It actually counts. And that's why he's such a huge figure under the new streaming rules (as he's always been).

My issue isn't even with Drake releasing large albums or manipulating the charts at all. It's with Billboard for not accounting for a way to include all ways albums are consumed. Plus, there's a difference between releasing long albums and releasing a lot of albums and singles. Also, it is common for hip-hop acts to release longer albums yet it's only now they're being rewarded for it on the charts. If we take Billboard at face value, rap music has never been more successful than it is at this very moment (or, maybe like 3 months ago. This year, anyway) but does anyone other than Billboard and Drake fans actually support or believe that?

[owenlovesmusic]

Oct 7, 2018 13:21:29 GMT -5 imbondz said:

Is there any chance that GLY holds on for one more week?

This would be the week.

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 13:31:47 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:17:08 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Different artists have exploited different methodologies that Billboard has employed over the past several decades. Drake, along with other rappers who are releasing music as frequently and as voluminously as he's doing, aren't doing anything that hasn't been done before. The Beatles exploited the methodology during their time. They released way more music during their peak than Drake is doing now and it's not even close. They took full advantage of the way singles were weighed on the charts back then. Rihanna released an album every year from 2008-2012 during her peak in the digital era where she flourished as a pop star.

Also, there is no indication that Drake has peaked as a streaming act, seeing as streaming is still growing every year. Also, releasing music frequently and releasing long projects has always been a habit of rappers and specifically, one like Drake. Streaming just happened to come at the right time to highlight the real numbers rappers like him were pulling under the grip of illegal downloads. Fun fact: Drake's mixtape released in 2015, If You're Reading This It's Too Late, was the most illegally downloaded music project, across all genres that year. All that consumption in 2018 actually goes somewhere now. It actually counts. And that's why he's such a huge figure under the new streaming rules (as he's always been).

My issue isn't even with Drake releasing large albums or manipulating the charts at all. It's with Billboard for not accounting for a way to include all ways albums are consumed. Plus, there's a difference between releasing long albums and releasing a lot of albums and singles. Also, it is common for hip-hop acts to release longer albums yet it's only now they're being rewarded for it on the charts. If we take Billboard at face value, rap music has never been more successful than it is at this very moment (or, maybe like 3 months ago. This year, anyway) but does anyone other than Billboard and Drake fans actually support or believe that?

Isn't that what streaming is aiming to highlight? How many ways can they make albums and the songs off them count and have an impact on the charts? Rap music has always been popular. It's always driven culture, always generated a lot of money and was always viable.

[Gary]

Oct 7, 2018 13:31:21 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:25:09 GMT -5 Gary said:

And I don't know if he does or doesn't - I don't read the prediction threads - (I am kind of an oddball here in that I only study the year end chart at year end )

If it turns out that way then it is statistically accurate based on the methodology in place

Feelings and opinions are left to the readers and fans of the chart

That's exactly what I'm saying. The song/album/artist that has the best performance commercially during the course of a year deserves to be #1 at year's end. That's why the chart is deeply flawed. Adele moved more album units in 2015 than any other artist but 25 didn't end up as the #1 album that year. Drake moved more units than any other artist in 2016, but VIEWS didn't end up as the #1 album that year. Same thing happened with Ed Sheeran in 2017 with Divide. It has nothing to do with feelings or emotions. Billboard deals in numbers and their methodology in calculating and compiling said numbers for their year-end lists is deeply flawed. That's all I'm saying.

Oh I see

The "year" in the year end charts is roughly  from December 1 to November 30.    In all the examples you cited, Billboard was correct

Although '25' was not #1 for 2015 it was for 2016, for example (Adele '25' was released November 20, 2015 - at that point 2015 was over)

Soundscan does their own charts, the second week of January that line up with an actual year.

Up to you which one you follow



If you follow Billboard year end charts, remember to adjust your "year" back by a month

[thegreatdivine]

Scorpion has now officially moved more SPS units in the US than reputation.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Oct 7, 2018 13:36:26 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:31:47 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

My issue isn't even with Drake releasing large albums or manipulating the charts at all. It's with Billboard for not accounting for a way to include all ways albums are consumed. Plus, there's a difference between releasing long albums and releasing a lot of albums and singles. Also, it is common for hip-hop acts to release longer albums yet it's only now they're being rewarded for it on the charts. If we take Billboard at face value, rap music has never been more successful than it is at this very moment (or, maybe like 3 months ago. This year, anyway) but does anyone other than Billboard and Drake fans actually support or believe that?

Isn't that what streaming is aiming to highlight? How many ways can they make albums and the songs off them count and have an impact on the charts? Rap music has always been popular. It's always driven culture, always generated a lot of money and was always viable.

What?

[fhas]

Final Predictions --- TOP 10 --- October 13, 2018

1.	Girls Like You	32,300	(=)	[-4%]
2.	Mona Lisa	31,800	(NEW)
3.	Lucid Dreams	31,200	(-1)	[-0%]
4.	Better Now	26,500	(-1)	[-5%]
5.	Don't Cry	25,800	(NEW)
6.	SICKO MODE	24,500	(=)	[-0%]
7.	Youngblood	23,300	(+3)	[+2%]
8.	Uproar	23,000	(NEW)
9.	Let It Fly	22,600	(NEW)
10.	FEFE	22,500	(-2)	[-4%]

Others:
I Like It 21,800
Happier 21,700
In My Feelings 21,600
Taste 20,300
Love Lies 20,300
I Love It 20,000
Dedicate 20,000
Can't Be Broken 18,500
Natural 18,300
God is a woman 17,100

Girls Like You 17k sales + 126.8M airplay + 23.3M streams
Mona Lisa 22k sales + 0.0M airplay + 43.5M streams
Lucid Dreams 11k sales + 72.6M airplay + 39.1M streams

[Deleted]

I don't want to see Perfect recurrent next week because I want to see all the meltdowns on here.

[owenlovesmusic]

I think Mona Lisa could hit #1, seeing that HDD underestimated the numbers of CV slightly.

[jeiboy]

HDD always overestimate album bombs.

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 15:52:48 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Oct 7, 2018 13:06:34 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

But can we also stop ignoring the fact that the only reason why Drake is as big a "force" as he is right now is because, at his peak as a streaming act, he released a 25 track album? If Billboard incorporated album sales into the Hot 100 the way they do with streaming points, and Adele released a 25-track album for 25, she would have made Drake numbers look tiny. No shade to Drake or other acts performing well on Billboard now but their numbers are huge because they're using Billboard's methodology to their advantage. Of course they still need interest from music fans to do it but there's clearly a disadvantage for acts who benefit more from physical and digital sales compared to streaming. It's not so much that he's not as successful as his numbers suggest. It's that other acts don't benefit from Billboard's own methodology the way he has been.

But can we also stop ignoring the fact that no matter how much excuses you guys use to deal with Drake's success, he's simply a huge artist. Y'all are ridiculous at this point. 

God's Plan & In My Feelings both hit 100 million streams in a single week. Drake could've released a 10 track album and it would've still likely had the highest first-week of the year, and the highest streaming week ever for an album.

You guys using the whole '15+ tracks!!' excuse for long albums doing well makes no sense. You think EVERY time someone visits Scorpion on Spotify/Apple Music they listen to all 25 tracks? It might help during the first week when everyone tries to listen to an entire album, but after that, 95% of people only re-visit their favorite songs from albums so basically, all albums end on a leveled playing field where people just revisit their favorites.

Also at the end of the day, listening to songs is complete voluntary engagement time. If someone releases a 70 track album and gets people to listen to it over and over, it's not rigging the charts, in reality it is pretty damn impressive they were able to have people listen & engage with 70 songs over and over on their own willingness voluntarily. They would damn sure deserve astronomical numbers in my book.

I've brought up the point of Drake releasing songs/albums as frequently as he's been doing since the start of the streaming era and how all his projects debut really high and hold on long enough to pull great numbers on the streaming end of things and how impressive that is. Drake is releasing an album every year and moving just as many units as the biggest albums that year and I don't know if it's because he's been successful for so long that people kind of always try to look/talk down on his achievements now like it's normal or like everyone else is pulling in the same figures? No one else is doing what Drake is doing right now and when you try to talk about it it's like "yeah yeah, whatever."

And your point is exactly correct. Stacking up your album with songs doesn't guarantee success. Prime examples this year alone? Migos, Rae Sremmurd and Wiz Khalifa. All bloated albums that had very little impact on the charts. At the end of the day, it does boil down to engagement and how long you can keep the general public interested in these songs off your album which is increasingly harder and harder to do just with the sheer number of artists who are coming out everyday and gaining success and popularity right out the gate. There's only so much attention to go around and if you don't have the star power and potency in your music to keep people engaged in your music weeks, months after they've been released, then no, you won't be a streaming force.

[thegreatdivine]

Oct 7, 2018 14:49:23 GMT -5 fhas said:

Final Predictions --- TOP 10 --- October 13, 2018

1.	Girls Like You	32,300	(=)	[-4%]
2.	Mona Lisa	31,800	(NEW)
3.	Lucid Dreams	31,200	(-1)	[-0%]
4.	Better Now	26,500	(-1)	[-5%]
5.	Don't Cry	25,800	(NEW)
6.	SICKO MODE	24,500	(=)	[-0%]
7.	Youngblood	23,300	(+3)	[+2%]
8.	Uproar	23,000	(NEW)
9.	Let It Fly	22,600	(NEW)
10.	FEFE	22,500	(-2)	[-4%]

Others:
I Like It 21,800
Happier 21,700
In My Feelings 21,600
Taste 20,300
Love Lies 20,300
I Love It 20,000
Dedicate 20,000
Can't Be Broken 18,500
Natural 18,300
God is a woman 17,100

Girls Like You 17k sales + 126.8M airplay + 23.3M streams
Mona Lisa 22k sales + 0.0M airplay + 43.5M streams
Lucid Dreams 11k sales + 72.6M airplay + 39.1M streams

Now, we wait...

[iHype.]

Oct 7, 2018 13:06:34 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

But can we also stop ignoring the fact that the only reason why Drake is as big a "force" as he is right now is because, at his peak as a streaming act, he released a 25 track album? If Billboard incorporated album sales into the Hot 100 the way they do with streaming points, and Adele released a 25-track album for 25, she would have made Drake numbers look tiny. No shade to Drake or other acts performing well on Billboard now but their numbers are huge because they're using Billboard's methodology to their advantage. Of course they still need interest from music fans to do it but there's clearly a disadvantage for acts who benefit more from physical and digital sales compared to streaming. It's not so much that he's not as successful as his numbers suggest. It's that other acts don't benefit from Billboard's own methodology the way he has been.

Realized I read this post wrong originally.

Drake's album had 750 million~ streams first week.

Adele's 3.3 million buyers first week would have each had to play her album on average 227 times to equal that.

So umm, if Hot 100 was to measure listens from album buyers, I doubt she'd have 'made Scorpion's Hot 100 slayage look tiny'.

[rfucom]

Simms predicted mona lisa will be no.1 but almost or equally tied with GLY. This will be interesting.

[Gary]

Adele could also learn to rap, that might help the streaming presence - LOL

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Oct 7, 2018 13:51:49 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Scorpion has now officially moved more SPS units in the US than reputation.

Maybe so. But it will still likely end up #2 in Year-End Billboard 200 for 2018. It was still more than 500k SPS behind reputation according to oldbloke @ UKMix with 8 weeks to go. The places where that fact will matter are in the Nielsen annual report for music and RIAA certifications.