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Post by chartslovergermany on Oct 7, 2018 16:56:02 GMT -5
Scorpion has now officially moved more SPS units in the US than reputation. not really shocking/surprising with 3 #1 hits and plenty top 10 hits,Drake and Tay Tay are my babes❤️ :) |
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gabe
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Post by gabe on Oct 7, 2018 16:57:02 GMT -5
Remember that we won't get charts tomorrow.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Oct 7, 2018 17:25:18 GMT -5
Adele could also learn to rap, that might help the streaming presence - LOL Adele has the star power and the audience to move loads of pure sale units, but we've never seen any of her albums' performance on streaming platforms on a release week. Would be interesting. |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Oct 7, 2018 17:27:57 GMT -5
Scorpion has now officially moved more SPS units in the US than reputation. Maybe so. But it will still likely end up #2 in Year-End Billboard 200 for 2018. It was still more than 500k SPS behind reputation according to oldbloke @ UKMix with 8 weeks to go. The places where that fact will matter are in the Nielsen annual report for music and RIAA certifications. Yeah, I know all of this. Kendrick's DAMN. has stalled at 3.5m units SPS in the US, too and that album also dropped in 2017. Can't wait to read the year-end reports from hitsDD, Buzz Angle and Nielsen and read the new certifications from RIAA. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Oct 7, 2018 17:30:14 GMT -5
Scorpion is probably gonna tap out at around 5 million in the end.
It's gonna be around 3.5-3.9m at the end of 2018, will pass 4 million early 2019, and ofcourse, his albums stick around in the lower positions of Billboard 200 forever so 5 million will be eventual.
The album sales + TEA is like 500k, so that means 4.5m from streams. Crazy.
Can't wait for the upcoming years when albums do 5 million+ units from just streams.
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Post by thegreatdivine on Oct 7, 2018 17:32:37 GMT -5
I'm hoping Drake's label certifies his albums and the rest of his singles (including the songs on Scorpion) by the end of the year. I ran the numbers and he should have moved 30 million album units in the US across all his commercial releases.
His albums should read like this when they get certified up to date:
So Far Gone EP: Platinum
Thank Me Later: 2x Platinum
Take Care: 5x Platinum
Nothing Was the Same: 5x Platinum
If You're Reading This It's Too Late: 3x Platinum
What A Time to Be Alive: 2x Platinum
Views: 6x Platinum
More Life: 3x Platinum
Scorpion: 3x platinum.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 7, 2018 17:33:23 GMT -5
Remember that we won't get charts tomorrow. wait what |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Oct 7, 2018 17:35:59 GMT -5
Remember that we won't get charts tomorrow. wait what Native Genocide Columbus Day |
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Post by thegreatdivine on Oct 7, 2018 17:36:31 GMT -5
Scorpion is probably gonna tap out at around 5 million in the end. It's gonna be around 3.5-3.75m at the end of 2018 and will undoubtedly pass 4 million, and ofcourse, his albums stick around in the lower positions of Billboard 200 forever so 5 million will be eventual. The album sales + TEA is like 500k, so that means 4.5m from streams. Crazy. Can't wait for the upcoming years when albums do 5 million+ units from just streams. He pulled in like 570k units from streams in Scorpion's first week. If anyone will move a million units first week off streams alone, it'll be Drake. That'll be amazing to see. I can see that happening in 2020/2021, depending on the rate at which streaming keeps growing. Remember in 2015 when IYRTITL did 495k pure sales in three days and 525k SPS? Pulled in 30k units off streams back then. In three years, he's pulled in 570k units off streams. The growth has been crazy. |
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 7, 2018 17:37:52 GMT -5
Native Genocide Columbus Day what kinda bullshit is that I haven't seen anything relating to Columbus Day since 5th grade |
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Au$tin
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Post by Au$tin on Oct 7, 2018 17:39:01 GMT -5
Native Genocide Columbus Day what kinda bulls**t is that I haven't seen anything relating to Columbus Day since 5th grade Ever since Billboard switched to Tuesday charts, they've always taken the day off for Columbus Day, which I agree is bullshit, but it is what it is. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Oct 7, 2018 17:41:11 GMT -5
Scorpion is probably gonna tap out at around 5 million in the end. It's gonna be around 3.5-3.75m at the end of 2018 and will undoubtedly pass 4 million, and ofcourse, his albums stick around in the lower positions of Billboard 200 forever so 5 million will be eventual. The album sales + TEA is like 500k, so that means 4.5m from streams. Crazy. Can't wait for the upcoming years when albums do 5 million+ units from just streams. He pulled in like 570k units from streams in Scorpion's first week. If anyone will move a million units first week off streams alone, it'll be Drake. That'll be amazing to see. I can see that happening in 2020/2021, depending on the rate at which streaming keeps growing. Remember in 2015 when IYRTITL did 495k pure sales in three days and 525k SPS? Pulled in 30k units off streams back then. In three years, he's pulled in 570k units off streams. The growth has been crazy. Someone would have to do atleast 1.25b+ streams first week, which I think won't be happening soon if it does. Like maybe atleast 5 years if that even happens. And if Drake is still that relevant then and the one to do it, that'd be even more insane. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Oct 7, 2018 18:23:53 GMT -5
Realized I read this post wrong originally. Drake's album had 750 million~ streams first week. Adele's 3.3 million buyers first week would have each had to play her album on average 227 times to equal that. So umm, if Hot 100 was to measure listens from album buyers, I doubt she'd have 'made Scorpion's Hot 100 slayage look tiny'. You forgot to divide 227 by the number of tracks. Why are you only counting the 3.3 million buyers? Do you think no one else would have bothered listening to her album for free outside of the 3.3 million people who paid 20$ for it? Drake wouldn't have 750 million streams either if people had to actually pay something for it. The 11 songs on her album would have occupied the entire top 11 of the H100 with major leads for at least a month, if album sales counted towards the H100 like how album streaming counts towards the H100 now. That's what Max is talking about. 227 is the cumulative plays for her album each buyer would need to match Scorpion's streams. I was already saying that. "Do you think no one else would have bothered listening to her album for free outside of the 3.3 million people who paid 20$ for it?" Her album wasn't on streaming first week, so the only legal consumption method for the album was buying it. And no, that wouldn't have happened. As I just said, 25 was not available for streaming. Thus the buyers would have had to stream tracks from the album 227+ times in a week to match Scorpion's dominance, let alone strongly surpass. Her 'having the entire top 11 for over a month' is an extremely fake possibility made up out of the ass. |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Oct 7, 2018 18:25:20 GMT -5
The year-end charts, which we obsess here about all year long is nothing more than a snapshot in time of what is popular. Nothing more than the weekly charts, just a bigger snapshot And on Drake, Drake can be the artist of the year, without having the #1 album or song of the year. They do not have to be the same - happened many times before. Except in this case, it wouldn't be the right "snapshot." He does have the song of the year and the album of the year the same way Adele had the album of the year in 2015, Drake had the album of the year in 2016 and Ed Sheeran had the album of the year in 2017 but none of them ended up with the #1 albums in the year-end chart. Billboard's methodology of their year-end charts is deeply flawed and dated. It's nothing new and we all know Billboard's chart year doesn't align with the calendar year. They do this so they can prepare the year-end issue, which does take a lot of time and work, so they can have it ready in time to be released before the end of the calendar year, as all publications do. Yeah in a perfect world it would be nice if it could align exactly with the calendar year, but Billboard has always been doing it this way so it ain't gonna change anytime soon. In a way though, I kind of prefer the mid-November cutoff date, because that is usually around the time, more than any other time of year, when most big artists release new music (right in time for holiday sales), so that time period actually encapsulates complete album cycles for the bigger artists more often than the actual calendar year does, and I would say most of the sales/streams from those albums end up taking place during the actual calendar year anyway, with exceptions of course, like 25 and Reputation. |
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Post by garrettlen on Oct 7, 2018 19:18:57 GMT -5
Remember that we won't get charts tomorrow. Yes "Invade the Indigenous People's Land" day is tomorrow. |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 7, 2018 23:15:55 GMT -5
Remember that we won't get charts tomorrow. Yes "Invade the Indigenous People's Land" day is tomorrow. Lmao I don't even know why Columbus Day is still a thing, literally no one gives a fuck about it, everyone already knows that Christopher Columbus was a sham and the Vikings had already found America before him. It's just an excuse for government workers to have another 4 day weekend during the year. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Oct 7, 2018 23:48:44 GMT -5
You forgot to divide 227 by the number of tracks. Why are you only counting the 3.3 million buyers? Do you think no one else would have bothered listening to her album for free outside of the 3.3 million people who paid 20$ for it? Drake wouldn't have 750 million streams either if people had to actually pay something for it. The 11 songs on her album would have occupied the entire top 11 of the H100 with major leads for at least a month, if album sales counted towards the H100 like how album streaming counts towards the H100 now. That's what Max is talking about. 227 is the cumulative plays for her album each buyer would need to match Scorpion's streams. I was already saying that. "Do you think no one else would have bothered listening to her album for free outside of the 3.3 million people who paid 20$ for it?" Her album wasn't on streaming first week, so the only legal consumption method for the album was buying it. And no, that wouldn't have happened. As I just said, 25 was not available for streaming. Thus the buyers would have had to stream tracks from the album 227+ times in a week to match Scorpion's dominance, let alone strongly surpass. Her 'having the entire top 11 for over a month' is an extremely fake possibility made up out of the ass. That’s the issue though. My point. Streaming counts for both the album and singles chart whereas album sales doesn’t. So, there’s no issue with the album chart but the single’s chart is horribly lopsided. I personally don’t have an issue with streaming being included in the hot 100 because it accounts for a better representation of what’s in for that week - but the picture the Hot 100 paints is that people who buy albums don’t listen to them. To be fair, of course Billboard can’t measure how many times people listen to music they buy outside of measurable services outside of streaming but they can certainly make up an arbitrary number to account for that. It’s not like they don’t use arbitrary numbers in their tabulations already. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Oct 7, 2018 23:49:48 GMT -5
Yes "Invade the Indigenous People's Land" day is tomorrow. Lmao I don't even know why Columbus Day is still a thing, literally no one gives a f**k about it, everyone already knows that Christopher Columbus was a sham and the Vikings had already found America before him. It's just an excuse for government workers to have another 4 day weekend during the year. Were the Vikings the first ones to find the land? |
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aussie1
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Post by aussie1 on Oct 8, 2018 0:08:17 GMT -5
Native Genocide Columbus Day There seems to be a holiday every other week in the US. |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Oct 8, 2018 0:52:13 GMT -5
Lmao I don't even know why Columbus Day is still a thing, literally no one gives a f**k about it, everyone already knows that Christopher Columbus was a sham and the Vikings had already found America before him. It's just an excuse for government workers to have another 4 day weekend during the year. Were the Vikings the first ones to find the land? Leif Eriksson led the first expedition to North America, those vikings were the first europeans to set foot in North America. Here's an article explaining the whole story
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Oct 8, 2018 1:55:38 GMT -5
227 is the cumulative plays for her album each buyer would need to match Scorpion's streams. I was already saying that. "Do you think no one else would have bothered listening to her album for free outside of the 3.3 million people who paid 20$ for it?" Her album wasn't on streaming first week, so the only legal consumption method for the album was buying it. And no, that wouldn't have happened. As I just said, 25 was not available for streaming. Thus the buyers would have had to stream tracks from the album 227+ times in a week to match Scorpion's dominance, let alone strongly surpass. Her 'having the entire top 11 for over a month' is an extremely fake possibility made up out of the ass. I don’t think you understand the conversation... Imagine we live in a world where there are no more album sales, just streaming. Adele debuted with 3-4x higher sales than anyone else in the past 20 years. Translated to streaming, that level of domination and hype is the equivalent of debuting with ~2.5 billion streams in 2018. But that wasn’t what I was talking about. Currently, 1 album stream on Spotify counts towards SPS, and also counts as a stream for each of the individual songs on the H100. If you buy an album, that doesn’t count towards the hot 100 at all. If the methodology was fair, then 1 album sale would also count as 1 song sale for each of the songs on an album. So the tracks from 25 would have all debuted with 3.3 million sales on the H100, and occupied the top 11. That’s basically what’s happening with streaming right now, and why there are so many album bombs. But with the current methodology, only albums with high streams can have album bombs, but albums with high sales can’t. This heavily benefits hip hop artists like Drake who don’t sell albums anymore. That’s what we’re trying to explain. For example, do you think it’s realistic that Drake occupied 6/10 songs in the H100 top 10, while Reputation sold 1.2 million copies and none of the album tracks even charted? Ehhh, that may make sense in writing, but that's very much inflated popularity for the songs. For example, if you converted album sales to track purchases for each song on Hot 100, Carrie Underwood's album last month would have every song 'sell' 260K. Meaning she'd occupy the entire top 10. Carrie's songs at all do not have that reach. Her lead single couldn't even crack Top 40, and the follow-up couldn't even chart. Any song released individually from her album would not generate 260k sales in a week. Whereas with streams, if a song gets 20 million streams during an album release, that means it's from a hugely popular artist on streaming. They could've dropped it outside of album release on it's own and it would've gotten very much near 20 million streams. All those Drake songs could've reached those same amounts of streams if they were dropped individually on their own. Would Adele's songs have sold 3.3 million if they were released individually as singles/promo-singles outside the album? Considering Hello did only 1/3 of that, the answer is no. |
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Oct 8, 2018 2:46:37 GMT -5
I think instant grats (Instantly downloading the released song if you preorder an album) used to count which is how Taylor used to have those album bombs. I imagine 1989, 25, and Reputation would have been able to create a sizable album bombs if Billboard still counted it due to the massive preorders all three have.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Oct 8, 2018 3:06:39 GMT -5
I’m not saying they should have counted as 3.3 million sales. But even a tenth of that would have occupied the entire top 11. If, say, 25% of album sales counted as song sales on opening week, that would paint a more realistic picture of album bombs for non-streaming artists. Like in your Carrie Underwood example, her SPS numbers were the same as Cardi, but without an album bomb. Giving all of her songs 60k sales would have resulted in a similar bomb to what Cardi had. Going back to my Taylor example, 1.2 million / 4 = 300k track sales for each song would have given a pretty realistic album bomb for her as well, considering how colossal the hype was. But again, we’re not opining on what the perfect methodology should be, we’re just commenting that Drake’s album bomb was only historic due to current streaming bias rules, and that older albums like 25, 1989, Oops, Born This Way etc were just as big, but the Hot 100 charts didn’t show it yet back then. I don’t understand what you’re trying to argue. Do you think Scorpion is bigger than 25? 300k is still kinda notably inflating. Weren't the promo-singles (Gorgeous, Call It What You Want, etc) doing under 100k released individually? And what about some other ticket-bundle fueled albums. Kenny Chesney's live performance album that did 250k first week based almost entirely off ticket bundles -- are we suppose to add 62.5k sales (250k/4) to every single live performance album track? We're supposed to believe his 29 live performance album tracks had more 'sales' than the #1-selling song of that week? And that they would've sold nearly that much if released individually? Lbr that album was just a freebie that most fans probably didn’t even listen to more than once. Just something cute to claim. As I'm pointing out it has nothing to do with thinking Scorpion is bigger than 25 (it isn't), it's just that adding album sales impact to Hot 100 just really isn't the same thing at all. It’s really complex whereas with streaming you just have the actual full numbers regarding engagement with each song. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2018 3:51:42 GMT -5
Every song from Speak Now and Fearless charted without streaming
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2018 3:53:00 GMT -5
I think instant grats (Instantly downloading the released song if you preorder an album) used to count which is how Taylor used to have those album bombs. I imagine 1989, 25, and Reputation would have been able to create a sizable album bombs if Billboard still counted it due to the massive preorders all three have. Didn't this hurt Taylor? All her singles would drop out of the chart during the album release and WANEGBT dropped 4-11 once red came out |
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Oct 8, 2018 8:16:00 GMT -5
kworb.net/airadio/*** = Dropped or added a format Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/10/081. (=) MAROON 5 - Girls Like You f/Cardi B (166.831) (-0.824) 2. (=) POST MALONE - Better Now (129.282) (-0.183) 3. (=) 5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - Youngblood (119.722) (-0.192) 4. (+1) SELENA GOMEZ - Back To You (113.990) (+0.148) 5. (-1) KHALID X NORMANI - Love Lies (113.284) (-1.077) 6. (=) JUICE WRLD - Lucid Dreams (92.776) (+0.728) 7. (=) CARDI B/BAD BUNNY/J BALVIN - I Like It (87.487) (-0.007) *** 8. (=) ARIANA GRANDE - God Is A Woman (87.020) (+0.859) 9. (=) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (82.935) (-0.494) 10. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Natural (77.189) (+0.719) 11. (=) DJ KHALED/BIEBER/CHANCE/QUAVO - No Brainer (73.845) (-1.508) 12. (=) LOVELYTHEBAND - Broken (70.589) (+0.297) 13. (=) LAUV - I Like Me Better (69.870) (-0.242) 14. (=) RUSSELL DICKERSON - Blue Tacoma (65.823) (-0.061) 15. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (59.962) (-0.923) *** 16. (=) OLD DOMINION - Hotel Key (57.609) (-0.350) 17. (+3) MARSHMELLO - Happier f/Bastille (56.730) (+1.582) 18. (-1) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (56.610) (-0.300) 19. (+3) FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE - Simple (55.176) (+0.536) 20. (-1) TYGA - Taste f/Offset (55.084) (-0.179) Others: 29. (=) LUKE COMBS - She Got The Best Of Me (50.849) (+0.620) 30. (=) DRAKE - Nonstop (50.694) (+0.585) 37. (=) ELLA MAI - Trip (42.731) (+0.710) 46. (+2) PANIC! AT THE DISCO - High Hopes (38.713) (+1.278) 47. (=) CARDI B - Ring (38.630) (+0.802) 48. (-2) MAREN MORRIS - Rich (38.500) (+0.524) 60. (+1) JIMMIE ALLEN - Best Shot (32.561) (+0.875) 62. (+2) MEEK MILL - Dangerous f/Jeremih, PnB Rock (31.732) (+0.575) 69. (+6) ARIANA GRANDE - Breathin (29.001) (+1.845) 74. (-1) QUEEN NAIJA - Medicine (27.662) (-0.543)
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Post by livelightning on Oct 8, 2018 8:27:55 GMT -5
Remember that we won't get charts tomorrow. Yes "Invade the Indigenous People's Land" day is tomorrow. For anyone who lives in America, you wouldn't without Columbus. Also the chart will probably be out today. They've never delayed a chart because of Columbus day. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Oct 8, 2018 8:40:21 GMT -5
Yes - chart preview today - full charts tomorrow
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garrettlen
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Post by garrettlen on Oct 8, 2018 9:11:48 GMT -5
Yes "Invade the Indigenous People's Land" day is tomorrow. For anyone who lives in America, you wouldn't without Columbus. Also the chart will probably be out today. They've never delayed a chart because of Columbus day. LOL Except for those whose people were here before Columbus otherwise known as Native Americans (Indians). That's kind of the point of the whole thing. |
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Oct 8, 2018 9:13:30 GMT -5
Yes "Invade the Indigenous People's Land" day is tomorrow. For anyone who lives in America, you wouldn't without Columbus. Also the chart will probably be out today. They've never delayed a chart because of Columbus day. what if you're native american lol |
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