Billboard Hot 100: 11/17/18

[DJ General]

Drake isn't slowing down at all. His latest single with MJ might be "slow" but the song was literally streamed a billion times on release week lol It's almost why these big A-List stars have to do different album roll outs.

The song would have been a big hit if it was brand new and unreleased but releasing songs months after albums as singles when the artist in question is one of the biggest streaming (and biggest artists periods) artists is just not gonna fly these days.

I have no doubt in my mind that a fresh Drake single in 2019 will without a doubt debut in the Top 5 and has a chance at a #1 debut as well.

[hot100predictions]

I honestly see Ariana really taking off with her upcoming album, she already has one #1 with it. But she might be able to pull off maybe one more with Needy, especially if she releases a music video same day. I expect one more single before the actual release of the album.

[tanooki]

Nov 8, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Drake isn't slowing down at all. His latest single with MJ might be "slow" but the song was literally streamed a billion times on release week lol It's almost why these big A-List stars have to do different album roll outs.

The song would have been a big hit if it was brand new and unreleased but releasing songs months after albums as singles when the artist in question is one of the biggest streaming (and biggest artists periods) artists is just not gonna fly these days.

I have no doubt in my mind that a fresh Drake single in 2019 will without a doubt debut in the Top 5 and has a chance at a #1 debut as well.

I say he's slowing down because of recent trends.

Look Alive and Yes Indeed went top 10 and Look Alive stuck around, with Yes Indeed still faring alright. MIA had a good debut but I don't see it doing as well and then there was that one song off of the Lil Baby/Gunna tape that did literally nothing. His next era will be big, but not Scorpion big

[DJ General]

I almost wish we would see artists release a new song each month and then an album for those who still want one after 10 or 12 months or so. I think that is the sort of shift we are going to see in the future. Or at least it would be a smart one.

Imagine if Drake had released 10 songs individually. And each one went to #1.

Instead of doing them all at once and seeing low returns on later singles because people already got over the song months ago. I'd be curious to see this strategy play out at some point with someone.

[DJ General]

Nov 8, 2018 20:53:58 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Nov 8, 2018 20:50:54 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Drake isn't slowing down at all. His latest single with MJ might be "slow" but the song was literally streamed a billion times on release week lol It's almost why these big A-List stars have to do different album roll outs.

The song would have been a big hit if it was brand new and unreleased but releasing songs months after albums as singles when the artist in question is one of the biggest streaming (and biggest artists periods) artists is just not gonna fly these days.

I have no doubt in my mind that a fresh Drake single in 2019 will without a doubt debut in the Top 5 and has a chance at a #1 debut as well.

I say he's slowing down because of recent trends.

Look Alive and Yes Indeed went top 10 and Look Alive stuck around, with Yes Indeed still faring alright. MIA had a good debut but I don't see it doing as well and then there was that one song off of the Lil Baby/Gunna tape that did literally nothing. His next era will be big, but not Scorpion big

Those aren't even Drake's songs lol and to be fair, his uncredited appearance is what is currently making SICKO MODE a giant hit. He still has massive airplay, downloads, etc. It's not even possible for someone to have all these songs going at once. I don't think it shows him slowing down at all. If the songs were spaced out and released in a slower fashion, I'm sure they would be doing even better.

[tanooki]

Nov 8, 2018 20:54:20 GMT -5 DJ General said:

I almost wish we would see artists release a new song each month and then an album for those who still want one after 10 or 12 months or so. I think that is the sort of shift we are going to see in the future. Or at least it would be a smart one.

Imagine if Drake had released 10 songs individually. And each one went to #1.

Instead of doing them all at once and seeing low returns on later singles because people already got over the song months ago. I'd be curious to see this strategy play out at some point with someone.

Interesting. This will probably be the case for hip hop, especially the one that doesn't go well with Pulse (6ix9ine and Lil Pump are already pretty much doing this)

[tanooki]

Nov 8, 2018 20:55:49 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Nov 8, 2018 20:53:58 GMT -5 tanooki said:

I say he's slowing down because of recent trends.

Look Alive and Yes Indeed went top 10 and Look Alive stuck around, with Yes Indeed still faring alright. MIA had a good debut but I don't see it doing as well and then there was that one song off of the Lil Baby/Gunna tape that did literally nothing. His next era will be big, but not Scorpion big

Those aren't even Drake's songs lol and to be fair, his uncredited appearance is what is currently making SICKO MODE a giant hit. He still has massive airplay, downloads, etc. It's not even possible for someone to have all these songs going at once. I don't think it shows him slowing down at all. If the songs were spaced out and released in a slower fashion, I'm sure they would be doing even better.

It would be wrong not to discuss the big features, though. Look Alive especially was pretty big (and it pretty much is a Drake song lets be real). When I say slowing down, I don't mean by a lot either. Scorpion, in my opinion, will be his peak. I don't see him doing any better than that, but he'll still be a force

[Deleted]

I'm annoyed at how Ariana is going to luck out for a number 1 with a song that isn't even number one worthy and doesn't deserve it one bit. The songs that she should have gotten a number 1 with were Problem and No Tears Left To Cry. TUN shouldn't be anywhere close to a number 1 worthy debut. The song is nice and I like it but it feels more of an album track, and having this kind of song from her debut at number 1 is a shame.

[lazer]

Nov 8, 2018 20:59:59 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Nov 8, 2018 20:55:49 GMT -5 DJ General said:

Those aren't even Drake's songs lol and to be fair, his uncredited appearance is what is currently making SICKO MODE a giant hit. He still has massive airplay, downloads, etc. It's not even possible for someone to have all these songs going at once. I don't think it shows him slowing down at all. If the songs were spaced out and released in a slower fashion, I'm sure they would be doing even better.

It would be wrong not to discuss the big features, though. Look Alive especially was pretty big (and it pretty much is a Drake song lets be real). When I say slowing down, I don't mean by a lot either. Scorpion, in my opinion, will be his peak. I don't see him doing any better than that, but he'll still be a force

I'll be fine with Drake releasing an album if it doesn't have 25 or more songs in it.

[Mauricio]

Nov 8, 2018 21:02:14 GMT -5 @walker9 said:

I'm annoyed at how Ariana is going to luck out for a number 1 with a song that isn't even number one worthy and doesn't deserve it one bit. The songs that she should have gotten a number 1 with were Problem and No Tears Left To Cry. TUN shouldn't be anywhere close to a number 1 worthy debut. The song is nice and I like it but it feels more of an album track, and having this kind of song from her debut at number 1 is a shame.

If the song got the biggest amount of points during the week, then it does deserve the #1 spot.

[Zach]

Nov 8, 2018 20:52:14 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

I honestly see Ariana really taking off with her upcoming album, she already has one #1 with it. But she might be able to pull off maybe one more with Needy, especially if she releases a music video same day. I expect one more single before the actual release of the album.

What's with all the hype surrounding Needy?

[Kris]

Yes Ariana's #1 will be solely because of luck, but it isn't the first time this has happened.

[velaxti]

Nov 8, 2018 20:54:20 GMT -5 DJ General said:

I almost wish we would see artists release a new song each month and then an album for those who still want one after 10 or 12 months or so. I think that is the sort of shift we are going to see in the future. Or at least it would be a smart one.

Imagine if Drake had released 10 songs individually. And each one went to #1.

Instead of doing them all at once and seeing low returns on later singles because people already got over the song months ago. I'd be curious to see this strategy play out at some point with someone.

I agree, and a lot of dance DJs have been doing this sort of thing for a while already. There was a Calvin Harris album where he released I think 6 singles before the album (and they were all hits globally). And a Jess Glynne album recently which was similar. she had I think 7 or 8 singles before the album. So when they release the album it's more like a compilation of their recent hits + a few new tracks.

But it depends. Some artists like to make a cohesive project of work rather than release stand-alone songs randomly, so I think they will prefer to do an album with maybe just 1 or 2 singles before for advertising purposes.

[velaxti]

Nov 8, 2018 16:49:10 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Nov 8, 2018 16:44:00 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

yeah you’d never think a song like that would be number 1.. until it was haha

Yeah, I actually remember hearing it for the first time on my pop station, I believe it was in between some Katy Perry song and Call Me Maybe. I was not used to hearing something that strange on pop radio, and We Are Young was already doing well at the time along with Adele's hits, but they weren't really out of place compared to Gotye. Somebody That I Used To Know didn't really fit in.

But it started sounding normal as more and more indie acts like Imagine Dragons and Lumineers started making waves, and suddenly that type of music was the norm. 

Unfortunately a lot of pop stations played the Tiesto remix of Somebody That I Used to Know (which I find nowhere near as good as the original). In fact, the Tiesto remix got so much airplay that it managed to get top 10 on iTunes at one point (it's pretty rare to have an original song and also a dance remix in the top 10 together).

One of the pop stations I listened to played the song in its original form, but heavily cut down. The edit they played must have been about 2 minutes, not to mention, they didn't seem to have it in high rotation, and I was never hearing the song after a few months. It felt like they were playing the song because they felt they had to so did the absolute bare minimum. This was when Top 40 radio was refusing to play anything other than dance-pop, and when I was begging for some variety, so it was disappointing to see Somebody That I Used To Know get treated so poorly. Meanwhile, when Starships was released they were happy to play it every 1-2 hours in full from day 1, and for the rest of the year. So unfair, but it's not surprising the dance-pop trend died down in this environment, I can't have been the only one who was annoyed lol.

[tallen2001]

Man I really wish Drake would just take a break by now.

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Ariana getting #1 here is just redemption for Problem missing it by like what, 50 points?

[mackattack]

Nov 8, 2018 21:21:01 GMT -5 Kris said:

Yes Ariana's #1 will be solely because of luck, but it isn't the first time this has happened.

....every #1 is based on luck

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Nov 8, 2018 22:14:11 GMT -5 mackattack said:

Nov 8, 2018 21:21:01 GMT -5 Kris said:

Yes Ariana's #1 will be solely because of luck, but it isn't the first time this has happened.

....every #1 is based on luck

How? Hello was #1 based on luck?

[korbel16]

She could get a second week at #1 since she’ll have a full tracking week that week. Especially if she maintains over 3 million daily on Spotify for those 7 days and radio eats it up. Tbh radio won’t even hurt it. XXX won’t beat her either tbh his sales and radio suck

[Zach]

Nov 8, 2018 21:21:01 GMT -5 Kris said:

Yes Ariana's #1 will be solely because of luck, but it isn't the first time this has happened.

The old adage holds true: "A #1 is a #1 is a #1 is a #1".

[Gary]

When was the last "lucky" #1?

[hot100predictions]

Nov 4, 2018 20:17:05 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

Ari can probably get 30 million streams in 5 days if not more given she is #1 on AM, also once iTunes fixes the VPN issue I can see her driving to #1, maybe cranking 45-55k sales, and a little radio push (5-10million) so while a #1 debut isn’t likely, a top 10 is almost a certain.

Ok, 50 million streams, 70k+ sales and over 10 million in radio is good too lol.

[atg]

Nov 8, 2018 21:21:01 GMT -5 Kris said:

Yes Ariana's #1 will be solely because of luck, but it isn't the first time this has happened.

Yeah just like how This Is America wasn’t #1 worthy in Childish Gambino’s case when Redbone and Feels like Summer deserved it more

But any #1 hit is a #1 no matter how worthy or deserving it is

[kcdawg13]

Nov 8, 2018 21:38:40 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Nov 8, 2018 16:49:10 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Yeah, I actually remember hearing it for the first time on my pop station, I believe it was in between some Katy Perry song and Call Me Maybe. I was not used to hearing something that strange on pop radio, and We Are Young was already doing well at the time along with Adele's hits, but they weren't really out of place compared to Gotye. Somebody That I Used To Know didn't really fit in.

But it started sounding normal as more and more indie acts like Imagine Dragons and Lumineers started making waves, and suddenly that type of music was the norm. 

Unfortunately a lot of pop stations played the Tiesto remix of Somebody That I Used to Know (which I find nowhere near as good as the original). In fact, the Tiesto remix got so much airplay that it managed to get top 10 on iTunes at one point (it's pretty rare to have an original song and also a dance remix in the top 10 together).

One of the pop stations I listened to played the song in its original form, but heavily cut down. The edit they played must have been about 2 minutes, not to mention, they didn't seem to have it in high rotation, and I was never hearing the song after a few months. It felt like they were playing the song because they felt they had to so did the absolute bare minimum. This was when Top 40 radio was refusing to play anything other than dance-pop, and when I was begging for some variety, so it was disappointing to see Somebody That I Used To Know get treated so poorly. Meanwhile, when Starships was released they were happy to play it every 1-2 hours in full from day 1, and for the rest of the year. So unfair, but it's not surprising the dance-pop trend died down in this environment, I can't have been the only one who was annoyed lol.

I remember my pop station absolutely destroyed Take Me To Church, they gave it some club beat and made the song faster, whilst killing any of it's sound and hard hitting lyrics. I didn't get it, it's not like pop wasn't used to this kind of music, they played Sam Smith's boring ass ballads a billion times a day, plus it was a #2 hit. 

Fortunately since hip-hops rise back into the mainstream, my station has been less white soccer mom friendly and actually plays different music that isn't Taylor Swift or Pink. 

[mackattack]

Nov 8, 2018 22:16:30 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Nov 8, 2018 22:14:11 GMT -5 mackattack said:

....every #1 is based on luck

How? Hello was #1 based on luck?

Yup. The notion that Ariana wouldn’t have gone number 1 if the points had been higher can literally apply to any song that’s ever charted lol

[Deleted]

Why wouldn't she deserve the #1, lol. She's getting unprecedented streaming numbers for a female pop artist, it's not like she's debuting at #1 with 10 million streams, no she's absolutely destroying the competition there AND she's selling extremely well for this climate. Would SICKO MODE or Mona Lisa have "deserved" the #1, even if they pulled lower numbers? Pointless argument tbh.

Would I have preferred NTLTC, Problem or GIAW? Sure, but this is hardly "undeserved".

[Enigma.]

Yes Ariana! The game is truly changing, big streaming #'s don't belong to only hip hop (and Ed Sheeran) any more!

[iHype.]

Hopefully it becomes the first multi-week female #1 of 2018, although its pretty likely.

Checked and this would've been the first year since 1985 without a multi-week female #1 (as lead artist). That year was insanely male-dominated at the top; 26 songs went #1 and only 3 had females credited as lead artist, 0 as featured, but 4 if you include 'We Are the World'.

[Zach]

Nov 9, 2018 1:51:05 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Hopefully it becomes the first multi-week female #1 of 2018, although its pretty likely.

It's weird to think that the year is nearly over and we haven't had a multi-week No. 1 by a female lead. I wonder what 2019 will hold... Should be some high profile female releases.

[Nuestro Planeta]

Nov 9, 2018 1:51:05 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Hopefully it becomes the first multi-week female #1 of 2018, although its pretty likely.

Checked and this would've been the first year since 1985 without a multi-week female #1 (as lead artist). That year was insanely male-dominated at the top; 26 songs went #1 and only 3 had females credited as lead artist, 0 as featured, but 4 if you include 'We Are the World'.

Perfect (Duet) was #1 for multiple weeks. GLY also just spent 7 weeks at #1(I know Cardi isn’t the lead but still)