josh106788
Charting
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Posts: 65 
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Post by josh106788 on Mar 25, 2019 20:31:29 GMT -5
I'm over this song...guess we know song of the year...let's just skip to December.
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Mar 25, 2019 20:45:03 GMT -5
I think a 6th week is very possible.
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Kanenrá:ke
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Staff
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Post by Kanenrá:ke on Mar 25, 2019 20:50:23 GMT -5
I think a 6th week is very possible. Yeah I don’t see Riley or Brett being able to close the gap unless the gap in one week unless they do insane pushes or radio drops this quicker now. |
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Post by countryisking on Mar 25, 2019 20:56:32 GMT -5
How much airplay will this really have over its chart life? It rose to #1 literally almost instantly and while it has spent considerable time there, I wonder if a year-long #1 and done song would have more airplay. When talking in the context of a year-end or decade-end chart of course. I see this having lots of recurrent play.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 25, 2019 21:07:35 GMT -5
Like I said in the weekly chart predictions thread earlier today. This could easily get a sixth week especially since Brett Young didn’t run any max spin ads. I think it will and then Brett will take it the second week in April.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Mar 25, 2019 21:30:23 GMT -5
A sixth week is pretty much guaranteed, the real question is will this song make it to 7 weeks? Could be a possibility. Radio does not want to drop this song, and I think the recurrent airplay levels will be similar to “Body Like A Back Road”. I expect this to remain in the top 10 for a long time.
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Post by countryman87 on Mar 31, 2019 9:27:39 GMT -5
This will be #1 on BB for its 6th week. Billboard's first 6 week #1 since "Die A Happy Man" in 2015-16. What's more impressive about Luke's run is it happened during the year where holiday airplay didn't slow down the chart unlike Thomas Rhett. Thomas probably would not have spent 6 weeks at #1 if not for the holiday slowdown. He would've likely gotten 4-5 weeks there but not 6. Can Luke hang on for a 7th week? I believe its 50/50 at this point with Michael Ray making his push this week.
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justin5545
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Post by justin5545 on Mar 31, 2019 12:25:35 GMT -5
As great as it is that this has been massive, I really just want new music.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2019 12:30:31 GMT -5
This will be #1 on BB for its 6th week. Billboard's first 6 week #1 since "Die A Happy Man" in 2015-16. What's more impressive about Luke's run is it happened during the year where holiday airplay didn't slow down the chart unlike Thomas Rhett. Thomas probably would not have spent 6 weeks at #1 if not for the holiday slowdown. He would've likely gotten 4-5 weeks there but not 6. Can Luke hang on for a 7th week? I believe its 50/50 at this point with Michael Ray making his push this week. "One That Got Away" will probably get the Mediabase #1. Combs will drop a bit in airplay this week but I don't see it falling that far. Ray can easily increase the 700 spins he's behind right now and cut that audience gap down considerably. But it might not be enough to overtake "Beautiful Crazy" on Billboard by April 8th. It depends how far Combs drops in airplay. |
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seak05
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Post by seak05 on Mar 31, 2019 12:53:42 GMT -5
I like this song, but I'm sort of over hearing it constantly at radio
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Mar 31, 2019 13:39:29 GMT -5
This will be #1 on BB for its 6th week. Billboard's first 6 week #1 since "Die A Happy Man" in 2015-16. What's more impressive about Luke's run is it happened during the year where holiday airplay didn't slow down the chart unlike Thomas Rhett. Thomas probably would not have spent 6 weeks at #1 if not for the holiday slowdown. He would've likely gotten 4-5 weeks there but not 6. Can Luke hang on for a 7th week? I believe its 50/50 at this point with Michael Ray making his push this week. "One That Got Away" will probably get the Mediabase #1. Combs will drop a bit in airplay this week but I don't see it falling that far. Ray can easily increase the 700 spins he's behind right now and cut that audience gap down considerably. But it might not be enough to overtake "Beautiful Crazy" on Billboard by April 8th. It depends how far Combs drops in airplay. I agree with sabre14. Mediabase #1 I can see but there’s no way Michael can catch him on audience. He’s barely fallen in audience numbers on Mediabase this week and I don’t see him falling on Billboard audience a lot either. Michael will become the 4th artist to be blocked by Luke. I’ve said it all along that I think if anyone overtakes him it will be Brett Young. |
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2019 13:58:46 GMT -5
"One That Got Away" will probably get the Mediabase #1. Combs will drop a bit in airplay this week but I don't see it falling that far. Ray can easily increase the 700 spins he's behind right now and cut that audience gap down considerably. But it might not be enough to overtake "Beautiful Crazy" on Billboard by April 8th. It depends how far Combs drops in airplay. I agree with sabre14 . Mediabase #1 I can see but there’s no way Michael can catch him on audience. He’s barely fallen in audience numbers on Mediabase this week and I don’t see him falling on Billboard audience a lot either. Michael will become the 4th artist to be blocked by Luke. I’ve said it all along that I think if anyone overtakes him it will be Brett Young. If I had to guess, Combs gets a 7th week on Billboard but Sony was promoting "Beautiful Crazy" this past week. Combs will fall in airplay this week but will it be enough to lose the Billboard #1? I say no as well but considering this song has had heavy rotation airplay for a month and a half now, I wouldn't be totally shocked. Ray's gained 5.0 million in MB audience this week and Combs gained 400k, so the gap on Billboard right now is probably around 5.0 million between "Beautiful Crazy" and "One That Got Away" (estimation). Jordan Davis was able to pull off a 6.3 million in audience gain a few weeks ago on Billboard and if Combs falls even a little, there's a chance Ray can overtake him. |
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 31, 2019 14:01:11 GMT -5
Crossing my fingers hard that "Beautiful Crazy" gets a 7th week. That would be so beyond amazing imo.
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.indulgecountry
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Post by .indulgecountry on Mar 31, 2019 14:17:34 GMT -5
Love that this has been so huge for Luke Combs, but I am ready for this one to start dropping so he can release new music soon. I'm very excited for a new lead single from him.
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Post by Naos on Mar 31, 2019 14:22:00 GMT -5
Please no seventh week at #1.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 31, 2019 14:54:54 GMT -5
Just off the top of my head, we have not had a seven week #1 since Live Like You Were Dying in 2004.
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gardyfan
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Post by gardyfan on Mar 31, 2019 17:28:48 GMT -5
Just off the top of my head, we have not had a seven week #1 since Live Like You Were Dying in 2004. Yep. There Goes My Life did it 6 months before that as well. |
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g8erboi
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Post by g8erboi on Mar 31, 2019 17:52:10 GMT -5
Holy. Crap. A 6 week #1 today is probably equivalent to a 10+ week #1 fifteen years ago. Well deserved.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Mar 31, 2019 18:57:25 GMT -5
Just off the top of my head, we have not had a seven week #1 since Live Like You Were Dying in 2004. An asinine 10-week run at Radio & Records. “Live Like You Were Dying” was a non-consecutive #1 run at Billboard, when “Somebody” by Reba McEntire had that massive push in July of 2004. |
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 31, 2019 19:25:09 GMT -5
Holy. Crap. A 6 week #1 today is probably equivalent to a 10+ week #1 fifteen years ago. Well deserved. Considering the last ten plus week #1 belongs to Buck Owens' Love's Gonna Live Here from 1963-1864, that statement would not make sense. |
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raylatch98
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Post by raylatch98 on Mar 31, 2019 19:30:58 GMT -5
Holy. Crap. A 6 week #1 today is probably equivalent to a 10+ week #1 fifteen years ago. Well deserved. Considering the last ten plus week #1 belongs to Buck Owens' Love's Gonna Live Here from 1963-1864, that statement would not make sense. Considering how rotational the #1 is now compared to how it was 15 years ago, I think the statement makes some sense. I think that was where they would come from. |
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Mar 31, 2019 19:32:41 GMT -5
Just off the top of my head, we have not had a seven week #1 since Live Like You Were Dying in 2004. An asinine 10-week run at Radio & Records. “Live Like You Were Dying” was a non-consecutive #1 run at Billboard, when “Somebody” by Reba McEntire had that massive push in July of 2004. I love Reba McEntire to death. Even after fifteen years have passed, it still does not look right. She was able to spend a week at the top while Kenny Chesney had to settle for second with I Go Back. |
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Apr 2, 2019 11:01:38 GMT -5
I’m guessing this is going for a 7th week in a row. Didn’t see Michael run any max spin ads.
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josephmorgan
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Post by josephmorgan on Apr 2, 2019 12:34:45 GMT -5
But Luke did put out a thank you, country radio ad in this week's CA Weekly.
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 2, 2019 13:16:06 GMT -5
Yeah I have a really hard time believing this is going to hang on for another week. That with the thank-you note means radio/label are ready to move on. In the grand scheme of things, does it really matter if it's 6 weeks or 7 weeks? I think the label is thrilled if it happens, but if it doesn't, that's okay too. The gap is closing quick anyhow...not sure it lasts another 5-6 days.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 2, 2019 13:18:55 GMT -5
I’m guessing this is going for a 7th week in a row. Didn’t see Michael run any max spin ads. They're not, Sony is not actively promoting this anymore. If it can hang on for a 7th week, it'll be because programmers don't want to drop this from heavy rotation. This is Michael Ray's push week, even if you didn't see any ads in the Billboard and Aircheck pdf's last night. |
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Apr 2, 2019 13:33:48 GMT -5
I’m guessing this is going for a 7th week in a row. Didn’t see Michael run any max spin ads. They're not, Sony is not actively promoting this anymore. If it can hang on for a 7th week, it'll be because programmers don't want to drop this from heavy rotation. This is Michael Ray's push week, even if you didn't see any ads in the Billboard and Aircheck pdf's last night. How do you find out or know when an artist’s push week is? Just asking |
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Apr 2, 2019 13:51:33 GMT -5
They're not, Sony is not actively promoting this anymore. If it can hang on for a 7th week, it'll be because programmers don't want to drop this from heavy rotation. This is Michael Ray's push week, even if you didn't see any ads in the Billboard and Aircheck pdf's last night. How do you find out or know when an artist’s push week is? Just asking Um, because the label has told me lol. Most times (not all times), whoever co-hosts CCUSA a weekend, will have that lead into their push week. The biggest spin gains come after Wednesday, when many programmers adjust their playlist for the week/weekend and add in those extra overnight spins...that's why you see monster gains between Friday-Sunday. |
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 2, 2019 14:52:13 GMT -5
The whole relationship between labels and radio stations is fascinating. I know that there is definitely a "partnership" on max spins week, but what happens if the station decides not to spin it as much as others at the top of the chart? Probably nothing, but that station will likely not get some benefit in the future I'd imagine. I'm not saying it's always money necessarily, but I assume there are agreements to have the artist stop by for an interview next time they're in town, or passes to a local concert? It's interesting, and obviously something that nearly everyone does.
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CoJoFan
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Post by CoJoFan on Apr 2, 2019 15:21:46 GMT -5
How do you find out or know when an artist’s push week is? Just asking Um, because the label has told me lol. Most times (not all times), whoever co-hosts CCUSA a weekend, will have that lead into their push week. The biggest spin gains come after Wednesday, when many programmers adjust their playlist for the week/weekend and add in those extra overnight spins...that's why you see monster gains between Friday-Sunday. So since Brett Young is co-hosting the weekend of April 13-14 that will be his push week? And Eric Church is co-hosting this weekend coming up April 6-7 so I know they’re not pushing him that week so is Michael going for 2 weeks if he gets #1 this week or who will push that week if anyone? Sorry I’m nosey lol |
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