Billboard Hot 100: 03/02/2019

[mako]

Feb 17, 2019 6:25:18 GMT -5 renaboss said:

That being said, anyone who doesn't like "Please Me" will forever be a virgin.

Attachment Deleted

[nickd]

Feb 18, 2019 3:54:34 GMT -5 pcg4 said:

Feb 18, 2019 3:40:25 GMT -5 nickd said:

I'd give it about 70% odds of charting, with a max position of #70, and then drop out the week after and come back when (if?) radio picks it up.

I could see it too. I really hope radio picks it up because if not it's over for the song.
Could it have a similar run than Feels (at least in the US?). I don't know how were its streaming numbers but feels didn't start very strong in Youtube, like 365. Also in Itunes US Feels peaked lower than 365, but I don't know about the rest of its metrics. 
Without promotion the song will be overshadwed by other new releases, so I think she and Zedd should perform it somewhere. If she wears a black wig it would be even better.

If it does well on radio, maybe it could do similar to Feels, yeah, it did 18 weeks with a #20 peak.

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2019 5:11:41 GMT -5 nickd said:

Feb 18, 2019 3:54:34 GMT -5 pcg4 said:

I could see it too. I really hope radio picks it up because if not it's over for the song.
Could it have a similar run than Feels (at least in the US?). I don't know how were its streaming numbers but feels didn't start very strong in Youtube, like 365. Also in Itunes US Feels peaked lower than 365, but I don't know about the rest of its metrics. 
Without promotion the song will be overshadwed by other new releases, so I think she and Zedd should perform it somewhere. If she wears a black wig it would be even better.

If it does well on radio, maybe it could do similar to Feels, yeah, it did 18 weeks with a #20 peak.

Damn when was the last time she had a song go recurrent, Birthday?

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Feb 18, 2019 5:58:29 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Feb 18, 2019 5:11:41 GMT -5 nickd said:

If it does well on radio, maybe it could do similar to Feels, yeah, it did 18 weeks with a #20 peak.

Damn when was the last time she had a song go recurrent, Birthday?

Darko Horse actually. This Is How We Do, Birthday and Feels all three 18 weeks on chart. It's funny to think that her last song over 20 weeks was her only song with over one year on chart.

[Abbaschand]

Feb 17, 2019 6:25:18 GMT -5 renaboss said:

That being said, anyone who doesn't like both "365" and "Please Me" will be a virgin.

[kierz7]

“365”.

• Spotify U.S:

109 (-16) | 282.861 (-72k)

• Spotify WW:

64 (-4) | 1.157.195 (-193k)

The song is also out of the top ten on iTunes U.S.A.

Let us face facts, unless it becomes a significant hit on Pop / HAC / AC radio over the next several weeks/months, the song will fail to hit the top 40 of the Hot 100 at any point in the future, let alone the top 20. It’ll probably fare better in the U.K/Continental Europe but only barely as it’s falling on Spotify in those territories also.

Moreover, the song is awful, personally speaking. I guarantee that if “365” were similar to previous Zedd songs ala. “The Middle/Starving” etc. it’d be performing so much stronger.

[Gary]

Or if Zedd worked with a more current pop star than Katy Perry

[Choco]

Stay and Starving took their time to catch on though. There's nothing about 365's initial response that's surprising at this point. Katy Perry needs to rebuild her brand and any song she releases right now is gonna take some time.

[monkeydluffy]

Feb 18, 2019 10:52:49 GMT -5 Gary said:

Or if Zedd worked with a more current pop star than Katy Perry

Or if he did any other current star than Katy Perry. The Middle has an upincomer with Maren Morris that people loved and could get behind. I don’t think it mattered if it was pop, rather it should of been someone relevant, such as Ava Max, Billie Eilish or Queen Naija, for some examples. Even Camila, who is more well known, I think would’ve worked better. Katy is past her prime and needs a Mariah Carey “We Belong Together” comeback to get back in the game. This didn’t do it

[wavey.]

Yall be ready to cut a song off so quickly.

[kimberly]

Feb 18, 2019 11:32:02 GMT -5 monkeydluffy said:

Feb 18, 2019 10:52:49 GMT -5 Gary said:

Or if Zedd worked with a more current pop star than Katy Perry

Or if he did any other current star than Katy Perry. The Middle has an upincomer with Maren Morris that people loved and could get behind. I don’t think it mattered if it was pop, rather it should of been someone relevant, such as Ava Max, Billie Eilish or Queen Naija, for some examples. Even Camila, who is more well known, I think would’ve worked better. Katy is past her prime and needs a Mariah Carey “We Belong Together” comeback to get back in the game. This didn’t do it

We're no longer in 2005 and comebacks don't work like that anymore. I think this was a good move for KP, a radio-friendly pop song with a good music video, getting back into what she used to do before HITLESS was released lmao. "365" would have been a PERFECT follow up to "Chained to the Rhythm" too I'm realizing now.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

A radio deal helps to build hype, not just for radio listeners, but on social media too. This didn’t have that and thus the hype wasn’t as strong as it could have been. New artists don’t usually get that hype because their songs grow whereas major acts usually benefit from it and without it, the song is quickly deemed over and it’s hard to come back from that sticky label.

[mackattack]

Feb 18, 2019 12:07:42 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Feb 18, 2019 11:32:02 GMT -5 monkeydluffy said:

Or if he did any other current star than Katy Perry. The Middle has an upincomer with Maren Morris that people loved and could get behind. I don’t think it mattered if it was pop, rather it should of been someone relevant, such as Ava Max, Billie Eilish or Queen Naija, for some examples. Even Camila, who is more well known, I think would’ve worked better. Katy is past her prime and needs a Mariah Carey “We Belong Together” comeback to get back in the game. This didn’t do it

We're no longer in 2005 and comebacks don't work like that anymore. I think this was a good move for KP, a radio-friendly pop song with a good music video, getting back into what she used to do before HITLESS was released lmao. "365" would have been a PERFECT follow up to "Chained to the Rhythm" too I'm realizing now.

“Hitless” lmao

[mackattack]

That new Katy song is cute and I hope it smashes on radio. I think a top 15/20 peak is totally possible if they promote the song properly.

[pancakes]

365 is a terrible song. It has nothing to do with Katy Perry’s starpower or lack thereof - the song is just very tuneless. I would be surprised if it even manages top 50 on the Hot 100. On a related note, Please Me is also not good and I doubt it will achieve half of what Finesse has achieved.

[Choco]

Y'all talking about how terrible "365" is, but "Mo Bamba" recently reached #6 so quality doesn't really matter, does it?

And

[Gary]

Feb 18, 2019 12:23:11 GMT -5 pancakes said:

365 is a terrible song. It has nothing to do with Katy Perry’s starpower or lack thereof - the song is just very tuneless. I would be surprised if it even manages top 50 on the Hot 100. On a related note, Please Me is also not good and I doubt it will achieve half of what Finesse has achieved.

5 years ago or so, it would not have mattered what Katy Perry put out, it still would have been a hit

[brady47]

Feb 18, 2019 6:02:43 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Feb 18, 2019 5:58:29 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Damn when was the last time she had a song go recurrent, Birthday?

Darko Horse actually. This Is How We Do, Birthday and Feels all three 18 weeks on chart. It's funny to think that her last song over 20 weeks was her only song with over one year on chart.

Omg mess - that was 5 years ago! The fact that "Feels" only hit #20 with 18 weeks (#74 year end), but basically performed on par with "Chained to the Rhythm" (#73 year end)

To think 5 years ago, she was going head to head with Gaga and everyone was saying Gaga was over, and in 2019, it has reversed.

[brady47]

Feb 18, 2019 13:34:32 GMT -5 Choco said:

Y'all talking about how terrible "365" is, but "Mo Bamba" recently reached #6 so quality doesn't really matter, does it?

And

The queen has spoken.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

Ariana is number one again.

[nickd]

Feb 18, 2019 14:26:56 GMT -5 brady47 said:

Feb 18, 2019 6:02:43 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Darko Horse actually. This Is How We Do, Birthday and Feels all three 18 weeks on chart. It's funny to think that her last song over 20 weeks was her only song with over one year on chart.

Omg mess - that was 5 years ago! The fact that "Feels" only hit #20 with 18 weeks (#74 year end), but basically performed on par with "Chained to the Rhythm" (#73 year end)

To think 5 years ago, she was going head to head with Gaga and everyone was saying Gaga was over, and in 2019, it has reversed.

"Chained To The Rhythm" had 3 fewer weeks than "Feels" so that's why.

The streams and sales are starting to stabilize, it only fell from 93 to 106 on US Spotify and 118 -> 131 on AM US, so I think it'll debut at around 70-75 this week, and then out next week. If it can reach #20-25 on Pop radio it should be able to re-enter. I'm not sure how high radio will push it though if it's struggling on the other metrics, there's no radio deal and not much buzz...

[kcdawg13]

365 is kind of performing like Delicate, that song started out pretty small but slowly gained and climbed the charts. I think the same is gonna happen with Zedd & Katy.

And man Please Me is performing a lot worse than I expected, I mean, it's not flopping but I really expected it to be a lot bigger.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Please Me is already below Shallow in iTunes.

[Mauricio]

I don't think 365 will get to top 40 on the hot 100. Hopefully, I'm wrong. Even though i don't like the song it would still be nice to see a katy perry song having moderate success.

[imbondz]

365 is horrible. Ugh

[nickd]

Feb 18, 2019 20:20:42 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

365 is kind of performing like Delicate, that song started out pretty small but slowly gained and climbed the charts. I think the same is gonna happen with Zedd & Katy.

And man Please Me is performing a lot worse than I expected, I mean, it's not flopping but I really expected it to be a lot bigger.

Just because it'll have a similar debut position doesn't mean it's performing similar. Delicate's debut was driven mostly by Youtube views while 365 has its sales, Youtube and Spotify all going for it at once.

Youtube
365 looks like it's going to debut with half of Delicate's 1st week Youtube views and it's 2nd week will probably do about 30% of Delicate's 2nd week since its last 24 hour views are already worse than what Delicate was doing after 5 weeks.

Spotify
365 is benefiting from TTH and a bunch of other playlists, and looks on track to do around 2 million US streams with 75m playlist reach. Delicate's 1st week did 2.1 million US streams, except that that was on its 4th week of availability due to the delayed Spotify release, so the hype from Taylor's fans had worn off a bit, not to mention it was competing for attention from her fans against 14 other new songs and had about 50k playlist reach (yes, literally 1500 times less than "365").

Once the Youtube video was released, Delicate's streams rebounded to 2.9m on Spotify US for the first week as an official single, with about 30m playlist reach. That was after 5 months of availability for the hype to wear off. Once playlisting was comparable to what 365 currently has, Delicate hit 5.2 million weekly US streams. It's one of the worst streams:playlist-reach ratios I've ever seen which means Spotify users aren't actively choosing to listen to it and are only streaming it passively because it's in a bunch of playlists... I think it's likely Spotify will see that and go f*** it and remove it from playlists any day now which will cause it's streams to crater.

Sales
Should be 15k or so first week for 365. That's better than Delicate's first week, but Delicate wasn't available for sale for the first day or two of reputation's release to encourage fans to buy the album instead of the individual track. And even once it was available as a track, it was competing against all the other reputation songs, and had technically been purchased over a million times by her fans that bought the album... 365 is the most recent release from Katy Perry in over a year, and the newest Zedd song in 7 months, so it's more comparable to Taylor's pre-reputation release songs and even Call It What You Want and Gorgeous as promo-singles with lyric videos got 66k and 61k respectively as the top selling songs of their week of release.

[Deleted]

Feb 18, 2019 13:34:32 GMT -5 Choco said:

Y'all talking about how terrible "365" is, but "Mo Bamba" recently reached #6 so quality doesn't really matter, does it?

And

Mo Bamba is better than every single Katy song post unconditionally 

[Enigma.]

Shallow #1 on iTunes again! Queens of longevity!

[kimberly]

Feb 18, 2019 23:32:24 GMT -5 nickd said:

Feb 18, 2019 20:20:42 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

365 is kind of performing like Delicate, that song started out pretty small but slowly gained and climbed the charts. I think the same is gonna happen with Zedd & Katy.

And man Please Me is performing a lot worse than I expected, I mean, it's not flopping but I really expected it to be a lot bigger.

Just because it'll have a similar debut position doesn't mean it's performing similar. Delicate's debut was .

I think these two songs shouldn’t be compared like you did here, since “delicate” was released on nov 10, 2017 but sent to pop radio as a single in March 2018. That delay impacts a lot, as we just saw with “breathin” as well. “365” is like the last breath of witness era I believe, as tabloids report that kp will slow down after her engagement and start a family potentially, which makes sense to me. Considering “hey hey hey” made 0 impact, “365” will be lucky to chart in the lower quartile of hot 100.

[kcdawg13]

How big of a boost do you think the Oscars will give Shallow?